Category: World

  • World Bank warns of social unrest

    World Bank warns of social unrest

    a2The head of the World Bank has warned that the global economic crisis could lead to serious social upheaval.

    “If we do no take measures, there is a risk of a serious human and social crisis with very serious political implications,” Robert Zoellick said.

    He pointed to Eastern Europe, which faces the “tricky situation” of fast-shrinking economies and protests.

    Mr Zoellick suggested governments should start preparing for high levels of unemployment.

    “In my opinion, in this context, nobody really knows what is going to happen and the best one can do is be ready for any eventuality,” Mr Zoellick said in an interview with Spain’s El Pais newspaper.

    “There is also what I call the ‘X-factor’, that one can not foresee,” such as the recent outbreak of swine flu, he said.

    “Latin America has remained reasonably stable, even if Mexico and Central America are under pressure because they rely a lot on the North American market,” Mr Zoellick added.

    It was reported last week that Mexico’s economy shrank by 8.2% in the first three months of this year compared with a year earlier. Mexico sends 80% of its exports to the US.

    Other economies in Eastern Europe have registered double-digit declines in GDP, such as Latvia and Estonia, while the retiring Bank of England rate-setter David Blanchflower has said at least one million more people in the UK will lose their jobs. The World Bank has previously warned of a “human catastrophe” in the world’s poorest countries unless more is done to tackle the global economic crisis.

    It said an extra 53 million people are at risk of extreme poverty.

    BBC

  • THE GALLIPOLI – Straits of Disaster

    THE GALLIPOLI – Straits of Disaster

    How a British gambit in World War I turned into a battlefield fiasco

    By ROBERT MESSENGER

    On Feb. 19, 1915, ­British warships attempted to force the heavy Turkish defenses of the ­Dardanelles, the entrance to the straits in northern Turkey that are the key link between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. The British struck in search of an indirect approach to victory. World War I was in stalemate, the two sides locked into trench warfare in northern France. The hope was that a battle fleet appearing off ­Istanbul would compel ­Turkey’s capitulation, secure a supply route to hard-pressed Russia, and inspire the Balkan states to join the Allied war effort and eventually to attack Austro-Hungary, thereby ­pressuring Germany.

    The British government gave much consideration to the eventual division of the Ottoman lands once the straits were captured but very little to how the operation might ­actually be executed. The ­amateurish preparation and the resulting fiasco are ­recounted with sharp, taut precision in “Gallipoli: The End of the Myth,” Robin Prior’s near-definitive analysis of the campaign.

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    British troops advance at Gallipoli, Aug. 6, 1915.

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    The assumption that Britain would simply sweep to victory over second-rate Turkey was just the first of many errors of judgment. At each stumble, when a logical examination of the campaign would have had only one possible conclusion-withdrawal-Britain’s leaders doubled down, eventually committing a half-million troops to the Gallipoli ­Peninsula in a sequence of bloody landings and operations.

    The initial landing at Cape Helles set the tone for the eight months of fighting: a landing that was supposed to be only lightly opposed turned into an abattoir. A captain in one of the first regiments to land wrote in his diary: “Off we went the men cheering and dashed ashore with Z Company. We got it like anything, man after man behind me was shot down but they never wavered. Lieut. Watts who was wounded in five places and lying on the gangway cheered the men with cries of ‘follow the captain.’ Captain French of the Dublins told me afterwards that he counted the first 48 men to follow me, and they all fell.”

    By the time all the Allied troops were finally evacuated on Jan. 9, 1916, they had suffered 130,000 battlefield casualties, with probably twice that number invalided because of diseases such as dysentery and typhoid. For an attack conceived as a way of reducing the carnage in northern France, it doubly failed.

    The historians took to the fields of Gallipoli almost the moment the soldiers left them. The poet and essayist John Masefield had piloted a naval ambulance during the campaign, and his “Gallipoli”-which originated as a series of lectures for the American market-became a best seller in 1916. Masefield romanticized the slaughter, drawing parallels between the khaki-clad troops and the epic heroes who fought on the Asiatic coast of the Dardanelles, before a city called Troy.

    Later in 1916 came C.E.W. Bean’s “Anzac Book,” an anthology of poems, stories and drawings by the soldiers of the Australia and New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC)-“Practically every word in it was written and every line drawn beneath the shelter of a waterproof sheet or of a roof of sandbags.” Bean, who had won a lottery to be the official Australian newspaperman with ANZAC, would become a chief mythmaker of the campaign. Appointed official historian of Australia’s experience in World War I, he wrote six of the 14 volumes whose publication he would oversee, including the first two volumes, on Gallipoli.

    OB DS709 Gallip CV 20090522165845

    Bean propounded the idea that the colonial troops were stoic and tough and led to the slaughter by bumbling, effete Brits. He ended his history with the declaration that “it was on the 25th of April, 1915, that the consciousness of Australian nationhood was born.” April 25, the date of the first landings at Gallipoli, became Australia’s national day of ­remembrance, and the legend of Ginger Mick, shipped across the world to be slaughtered on Turkish beaches because of old men’s folly, is still widely known.

    The biggest bumbler in ­popular perception was Winston Churchill. As First Lord of the Admiralty, he was the ­father of the Dardanelles ­attack and bore the brunt of the blame. The bloody disaster shattered his glittering political career. For close to a decade his speeches were interrupted by cries of “What about Gallipoli?”

    In 1922, Churchill began a memoir to defend his wartime decisions. (That the book evolved into a six-volume ­general history of World War I called “The World Crisis” is all too indicative of the man.) The defense of the Gallipoli campaign is at the heart of the narrative. It is a sequence of almosts and if onlys.

    Churchill presents the strategic conception in the rosiest of hues, and the execution, especially the performance of Britain’s minister for war, Herbert Kitchener, in the grayest. “The World Crisis” depicts Gallipoli as a noble failure, an effort that would have saved innumerable lives on the Western Front had it been undertaken with tactical competence.

    For Churchill, it was “a long chain of missed chances,” missed because the government delayed the attacks repeatedly-allowing defensive buildups by the Turks at all the critical points-and failed to respond to setbacks promptly, with sufficient troops and ammunition. “It was not through want of judgment that they failed, but through want of will-power,” Churchill wrote. “In such times the kingdom of heaven can only be taken by storm.” (He also called the government’s failure to persevere a “crime.”) Churchill’s interpretation was seconded a few years later by the British official history of the campaign. Its author, Cecil Aspinall Oglander, had been a senior staff officer during the fighting and had a strong desire to ­defend conduct he held much responsibility for.

    “The Royal Navy had ruled supreme since Trafalgar. In the early years of the twentieth century its position had been tested by the rapid growth of the German fleet. But at the outbreak of war the Royal Navy was still dominant. ” Read an excerpt from ‘Gallipoli: The End of the Myth’

    Interest revived a generation later with Alan Moorehead’s 1956 best seller, “Gallipoli.” A popular war correspondent, Moorehead made a gripping narrative of the fighting. He emphasized “turning points” squandered by the local commanders and defended the Churchillian line that Gallipoli could have shortened the war by years. Moorehead relied on already published accounts. His book was “superb literature,” as Robert Rhodes James put it, “but doubtful history.” Disagreement with Moorehead’s conclusions-especially his acceptance of the claim that the campaign could have affected the outcome of the war against Germany-sent Rhodes James into the archives, and his “Gallipoli” (1965) was the first scholarly evaluation of the campaign.

    He demonstrated that ­Gallipoli’s “errors in execution stemmed directly from the fundamental fallacies in the original conception.” It was a devastating appraisal of the self-justifying writings that had dominated the literature for nearly half a century. While Rhodes James noted Churchill’s mistakes, he also stressed Churchill’s essential good faith in pursuing the Gallipoli ­operation and showed that blame should have been apportioned throughout the highest quarters of the British government. In his new history, Robin Prior takes this line to its reasoned end.

    For any operation to have succeeded at capturing the Dardanelles and allowing free access to the Black Sea, Mr. Prior argues, would have required immense operational preparations and the element of surprise. The one was always likely to negate the other-as was repeatedly proved on numerous fronts between 1914 and 1918. Mr. Prior shows that, from the moment of its consideration by the British war cabinet, the Gallipoli operation was managed in a lackadaisical manner by leaders uninterested in the realities of modern war. Where Churchill and Aspinall in their histories passed the buck down the chain of command, blaming local commanders for failing to achieve tactical successes during the battles on the Gallipoli peninsula, Mr. Prior kicks it up, right to the top of Prime Minister H.H. Asquith’s government.

    Details

    Gallipoli
    By Robin Prior
    Yale, 288 pages, $45

    Step-by-step, Mr. Prior ­examines the campaign and demolishes each layer of myth. The Straits would not, in fact, have fallen to the British navy if only the admirals had acted with more resolve, he shows, because the admirals had no ability to deal with the Turkish minefields, even if they had miraculously managed to put the Turkish guns out of action. The landings could not have secured a passage into the Black Sea, we learn, because the terrain of the peninsula was a sequence of endlessly defensible ridges that would have required the whole of the British army to seize. Far from Turkey’s collapsing if the Allies had seized the Dardanelles, Turkey could simply have fought on, Mr. Prior says. Istanbul had adequate defenses against naval attack, and it is impossible to imagine the British bombarding a city full of civilians in hopes of encouraging a change of government. And Mr. Prior convincingly argues that the battles of Sari Bair and Suvla Bay did not, as so many historians have claimed, nearly salvage the British effort. In neither case were the objectives of decisive value; even if they had been, the British lacked the reserves with which to exploit success.

    What becomes clear, too, is the absurdity of the belief that warring at Gallipoli could affect the ability of the Germans to war in northern France. “Despite the bravery of the troops who fought there, the campaign was fought in vain,” Mr. Prior concludes. “It did not shorten the war by a single day, nor in reality did it ever offer that prospect. . . . The downfall of Turkey was of no relevance to the deadly contest being played out of the Western Front.”

    The battle for the soul of Gallipoli has raged on too long. “Gallipoli: The End of the Myth” is a decisive end to ­debate. It may not be the very last word, as Mr. Prior himself is involved in a long-term ­project to discover what the Ottoman archives hold. But it is military history of the ­highest order.

    -Mr. Messenger is a senior editor at the Weekly Standard.

  • Cooperation and Confrontation between the USA and Russia in Caspian Region

    Cooperation and Confrontation between the USA and Russia in Caspian Region

    New monopolar world system had created new interests which depend on big powers in Caspian region after the collapse of Soviet Union. This situation shared a chaos on governmental system in this area. Big powers created a competition with Caspian Sea status and energy subjects to use their interests. Dominant power of the USA and Russia shared some conflict and cooperation circumstances as interdependent body in their relations. Particularly common threat position establishes cooperational theme. Caspian region which is second big energy sphere is a bridge between Europea and Asia, also it is a main point of the world domination conditions.

     

    Subjects of Confrontation and Hegemony Tools

     

    Big powers need conflict, cooperation and hard-soft balance tools as political subjects to increase their activity in the region. The USA and Russia have enough advantages according to their situation. But confrontation of powers can be transformed to common interest activities so to analyse foreign politics of states can provide to know near future. Today anxieties of the USA’s foreign affairs to Russia are existing as these subjects:

     

    – Monopoly situation of Russia in energy area,

    – Against position of Russia to NATO enlargement,

    – Russian force to Georgia,

    – Possibility of same circumstances to post-Soviet states by Russia,

    – Against position to Western initiatives about Iranian nuclear system.

     

             The USA used soft balance politics to Saudi Arabia and forced in Iraq to control Middle East which is first big oil sphere in the world. The USA supported first energy sharing agreement BTC in 1994 and for saving energy corridor it founded GUAM to be against CIS organisation about the subject of influence to Central Asia. The USA which a country had acted firstly in energy line plans to establish new cooperations to be dominant power in the region. American supported regional organisation GUAM targets new cooperations with West and to solve regional conflicts with Europen initiated projects. Also GUAM organised first military operations which Russia didn’t join. But Russia created a dilemma over the European energy corridor target of this organisation. Russia works to establish alternative energy lines and coordinate near abroad countries to common aims.

             Russia had an advantage to pressure over the post-Soviet states with energy event. Middle Asian countries which have big energy resources provide energy transportation via Russian territory. External projects are American supported issues. Shortly there is a competition that energy is used as a weapon.

     

             The USA interfered Afghanistan after the 11 September terrorist attack by this way the super power took a strategic point in Middle Asia. The USA shared a dangerous position for Russia because of the USA founded military points in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzistan after the Afghanistan intervene. So Russia organised Shangai Cooperation Organisation to build an alternative body against the USA with other regional states. It shares a bandwagoning system for this region which had been established by Russia as a main actor.[1] By this way Russia that is a main state of CIS shared strong resist against the USA with its initiatives.

     

             Bilateral agreements in NATO circle with the USA of Caspian states formed a dependent system to West. In this subject Georgia had been a pro-American arena in this region.[2] On the other hand Azerbaijani and American relations increased after annuling 907. article in the USA that has supporting event to South Caucasus states without Azerbaijan. Russia and Iran speeched as against the USA after opened airspace of Azerbaijan to the USA. Additionally security of BTC is important to the USA. New American forces in Romania and Bulgaria can intervene Caucasus area if there is a problem in Baku Ceyhan pipeline. Also American soldiers in Georgia can be used in emergency circumstances.[3]

            

             Russia said possible intervenes of Collective Security Cooperation of Shangai Cooperation Organisation to NATO’s activities in this region as against the military activation of NATO. Other advantages of Russia are conflict events as without regional cooperations against NATO. Fergana, Osetia, Abkhazia and Karabakh issues give chances to Russian invasion on the region. Because solutions can be producted by Russian mediator situation. Otherwise western initiated organisation GUAM targets that solutions can be existed without Russia. Nobody can guarantee that Russia will not save its interests about regional conflicts in Ukraine-Crimea, Moldova-Transdiester, Azerbaijan-Karabakh as additionally Georgian conflicts. For this moment Russian conflict politics focused on Georgia in South Caucasus area. Abkhazia and Osetia problems are punishments to Georgia by Russia because of Georgian new Western oriented politics.

            

             Bandwagoning countries rejected American activities after 2004. These countries supported Russian decisions against to the USA after this date. European Union continued its enlargement politics in Caspian as paralel to American issues. Caspian states easily can depend on West with some projects like Nabucco. Specially European Union projects TACIS, INOGATE[4] and TRACECA[5] can create influence over the regional countries like other cooperational acts. New resist of Caspian states’ outlook shares itself as internal cooperation and contr-politics of Russia. Also America can take an advantage in Caspian status problem against to Russia.

            

                Obligatory Cooperations in the Region

     

             There is no possible way to fight new movements’ expansion in the region of Russia which is a problem of American foreign affairs. Struggle to terrorism that is in directly Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan is a main aim of the USA political issue in Middle Asia. There is a Russian anxiety about results of possible conflict between the USA and Iran. Additionally Russia doesn’t want cooperations of these countries[6];

    – Iran can buy weapons and nuclear technology from the USA,

    – The USA can approve oil and gas transportation via Iran as alternative to Russia in Caspian sphere,

    – The USA won’t need Russian support in struggle against Iran issue.

            

             The USA is a main power about struggle to terrorist movements in this region. Also Russia trusts this power in this subject and main result of that is American military foundation by permission of Russia. There is a new progress to decrease American influence in Manas military point’s closing process. But it can be a start line of enlargement terrorist activations which is Russia’s afraid. There is a different situation in East Europea initiative of the USA about military approach. It shares an interdependent relation among great powers. President Bush again gave his assurance that the proposed American missile shield was not aimed at Russia. NATO summit in Bucharest, Russia scored a partial victory on the question of expanding the alliance. NATO did not invite Ukraine and Georgia, both former Soviet states, onto its Membership Action Plan.[7]

     

             At the present time in which cold war rivalry is waking up, Caspian region is becoming a field of  conflict at the same time a collaboration in view of energy resources and military cooperation to activate grand forces’ sovereignty. Cooperation needs occured by common benefits cause means used to reduce another one’s activity. In this backgroung that power balances are occured outside the states of Middle Asia, bandwagoning countries which got free of being unrelated to others may cause new situations. Of course all the same, political declinations, which work directed by Mackinder’s Heartland Theory, have the ability to form new balances in this region. Athority of the region countries which have rich resources will indicate that the world will being run by how many poles.

     


    [1] Walt, Stephen M. (1987). The Origins of Alliances. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press

    [2] Klare Michael T., “Transforming the American Military into a Global Oil-Protection Service”

    [3] Purtaş Fırat, TÜRKSAM, “Hazar Bölgesinde Rekabetin Yeni Boyutu: Silahlanma Yarışı”

    [4] There are at present 21 countries which have acceded to this agreement with the EU (Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Georgia, Greece, Kazakhstan, Kyrgisztan, Latvia, Macedonia, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine and the Republic of Serbia).Thus, all of them have agreed to cooperate towards the establishment of one or several systems of oil and gas pipelines which pass through their territories, while observing the jointly accepted rules embodied in the agreement.

    [5] Saraç Naciye, AZSAM “Tarihi İpek Yolu Yeniden Hayata Döndürülüyor”

    [6] Prof. Dr. Mark Katz, “The Role of Iran and Afghanistan in US-Russian Relations”

    [7] “Bush and Putin’s bittersweet farewell”, 06.04.2008

    Mehmet Fatih OZTARSU

    Baku Qafqaz University

    International Relations

  • Please, Iran, Release My Cousin Now, Too By Klara Moradkhan

    Please, Iran, Release My Cousin Now, Too By Klara Moradkhan


    Development Director, Children Uniting Nations   FOX News Blogs May 13th, 2009   Like millions of others, I rejoiced this week in the release of Roxana Saberi from an Iranian jail. Yet I also wept that my cousin, Silva Harotonian, similarly accused and convicted on political charges, remains behind in Iran’s notorious Evin Prison. After almost a year in detention, she remains caught in a tragic misunderstanding.
    For the very basis on which Ms. Saberi was freed – Iran’s recognition that it and the United States are not in a state of hostility toward one another – would support Silva’s release as well under Iranian law.
    Silva, an Iranian citizen of Armenian descent and Christian faith, is a kind-hearted young woman who loves poetry and helping others – hardly signs of a revolutionary or spy. She was hired by the Yerevan, Armenia, office of the International Research & Exchanges Board (IREX), a U.S.-based non-profit. An administrative aide, she supported an exchange program for U.S. and Iranian maternal and child health care professionals – exactly the type of initiative needed to increase understanding between countries.
    In June 2008, during her fourth trip from Armenia to Iran for work, Silva was arrested. She was later sentenced to three years detention for allegedly creating a “soft revolution” and had her initial appeal denied. Silva has such a bright future ahead, but her health now is deteriorating, so we plead with Iranian officials to show mercy during Silva’s upcoming final appeal. Iranian officials pledged to offer Ms. Saberi speedy and fair consideration of her appeal. Our entire family – in Los Angeles, in Armenia, in Iran – hopes they will do the same for Silva. Silva’s 75-year-old mother will be waiting at the gates of Evin Prison for the day they are reunited.
    Silva is ethnically Armenian – and relations between Armenia and Iran have never been stronger according leaders, including, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Armenians celebrate their national holiday, Republic Day, on May 28. There could be no greater gesture between Iran, Armenia and the United States, and no greater testament to the central importance of mercy in Islamic and Christian faiths, than for Iran’s leaders to demonstrate their compassion by releasing Silva.
    Klara Moradkhan is Development Director for Children Uniting Nations, a non-profit organization based in Los Angeles.   You can view the video on public appeal for freeing Silva Harotonian (in English) via the following link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLayZZOe3HE&feature=channel_page
    You can view the video on public appeal for freeing Silva Harotonian (in Armenian) via the following link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sndZoiSKg4&feature=channel_page

  • Mystery group in the driving seat

    Mystery group in the driving seat

    independentdublinIf the Finance Minister really wants to know the depth of this “global economic firestorm”, all he has to do is to ask the people who created it.

    About 150 of the world’s most influential powerbrokers in government, industry, banking, media and academia are meeting from May 14 to 17 at the Nafsika Astir Palace Hotel in Vouliagmeni, Greece.

    This group is called the Bilderberg Group and operates under the Chatham House rules — meaning that no details of whatever has been discussed can ever be leaked to the media.

    It seems, however, that top of their agenda this year is whether to have a prolonged depression that dooms the world to decades of stagnation and poverty or an intense short depression that eventually leads the way to a sustainable economic world order.

    Bilderberg could also be fostering a false picture of economic recovery, encouraging people to invest in stocks and shares again only for them to lose their money as another massive downturn is created by an economic false flag operation.

    It is frightening that decisions made by this non-elected cabal can affect every citizen in the world today.

    John Finegan
    Bailieborough, Co Cavan

    Source:  www.independent.ie, May 09 2009

  • UN report condemns Israel over Gaza war

    UN report condemns Israel over Gaza war

    tolA United Nations investigation yesterday accused Israel of “reckless disregard” for human life in using white phosphorus munitions that killed and injured Palestinians sheltering in a UN school during the Gaza war.

    The four-man UN panel, led by Ian Martin, a former head of Amnesty International, confirmed that smoke projectiles containing white phosphoros had twice struck UN premises, causing two deaths.

    The UN board had a limited mandate to investigate the nine worst attacks on UN premises and vehicles during the war earlier this year.

    It found the Israel Defence Forces responsible for seven of those attacks, including one it described as a “direct and intentional strike into UN premises” that killed three young men at a UN school in Asma.

    The UN panel blamed “a Palestinian faction, most likely Hamas” for one attack using a homemade Qassam rocket on a UN warehouse at the Karni crossing, saying the rocket was probably aimed at Israel but fell short. It was unable to establish responsibility for the ninth incident.

    In the highly publicised case of the shelling of the UN’s Jabalia school on January 6, panel-members demanded that Israel apologise for falsely claiming that it was responding to Hamas mortar fire when it attacked, killing up to 40 people in the vicinity and injuring seven people inside.

    Israel also wrongly claimed Hamas had fired from a UN field office it hit with artillery fire, the panel said.

    “These allegations were untrue, continued to be made after it ought to have been known that they were untrue, and were not adequately withdrawn and publicly regretted,” the panel said.

    The UN panel documented Israel’s use of white phosphoros munitions that hit the UN compound in Gaza City and the UN’s Beit Lahia school.

    Two children, aged 5 and 7, were killed by shards of projectile casings at the Beit Lahia school on January 5 and smoke from the burning white phosphorus injured others.

    “The firing by the IDF of projectiles containing white phosphorus in such close promixity to the school as to cause the death of two young children and serious injuries to others, as well as property damage, was highly negligent and amounted to reckless disregard for the lives and safety of those sheltering in the school,” an unclassifed 28-page summary of the 184-page report said.

    Israel’s deputy UN Ambassador, Daniel Carmon, called the report “biased” and “one-sided”.

    Source:  www.timesonline.co.uk, May 6, 2009