Category: Turkey

Stratfor.com
August 25, 2008

The Russians still have not completed withdrawal
from Georgia. It is clear that, at least for the
time being, the Russians intend to use the clause
in the cease-fire agreement that allows them
unspecified rights to protect their security to
maintain troops in some parts of Georgia. Moscow
obviously wants to demonstrate to the Georgians
that Russia moves at its own discretion, not at
the West’s. A train carrying fuel was blown up
outside of Gori, with the Georgians claiming that
the Russians have planted mines. Whether the
claim is true or not, the Russians are trying to
send a simple message: We are your best friends
and worst enemies. The emphasis for the moment is on the latter.

It is essential for the Russians to demonstrate
that they are not intimidated by the West in any
way. The audience for this is the other former
Soviet republics, but also the Georgian public.
It is becoming clear that the Russians are intent
on seeing Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili
removed from office. Moscow is betting that as
the crisis dies down and Russian troops remain in
Georgia, the Georgians will develop a feeling of
isolation and turn on Saakashvili for leading
them into a disaster. If that doesn’t work, and
he remains president, then the Russians have
forward positions in Georgia. Either way, full
withdrawal does not make sense for them, when the
only force against them is Western public
opinion. That alone will make the Russians more intractable.

It is interesting, therefore, that a U.S. warship
delivered humanitarian supplies to the Georgians.
The ship did not use the port of Poti, which the
Russians have effectively blocked, but Batumi, to
the south. That the ship was a destroyer is
important. It demonstrates that the Americans
have a force available that is inherently
superior to anything the Russians have: the U.S.
Navy. A Navy deployment in the Black Sea could
well be an effective counter, threatening Russian sea lanes.

While it was a warship, however, it was only a
destroyer ­ so it is a gesture, but not a threat.
But there are rumors of other warships readying
to transit into the Black Sea. This raises an
important issue: Turkey. Turkey borders Georgia
but has very carefully stayed out of the
conflict. Any ships that pass through Turkish
straits do so under Turkish supervision guided by
the Montreux Convention, an old agreement
restricting the movement of warships through the
straits ­ which the Russians in particular have
ignored in moving ships into the Mediterranean.
But the United States has a particular problem in
moving through the Bosporus. Whatever the
Convention says or precedent is, the United
States can’t afford to alienate Turkey ­ not if
there is a crisis in the Caucasus.

Each potential American move has a complication
attached. However, at this moment, the decision
as to what to do is in the hands of the United
States. The strategic question is whether it has
the appetite for a naval deployment in the Black
Sea at this historical moment. After that is
answered, Washington needs to address the Turkish
position. And after a U.S. squadron deploys in
the Black Sea, the question will be what Russia,
a land power, will do in response. The Europeans
are irrelevant to the equation, even if they do
hold a summit as the French want. They can do
nothing unless the United States decides to act,
and they can’t stop the United States if it does decide to go.

The focus now is on the Americans. They can let
the Russo-Georgian war slide into history and
deal with Russia later on, or they can act. What
Washington will decide to do is the question the
arrival of the U.S.S. McFaul in Georgia posed for the Russians.