Turkish Forum

Category: Turkey

  • Israel “troubled” by Turkish-Syrian military drill

    Israel “troubled” by Turkish-Syrian military drill

    Apr 27, 2009

    JERUSALEM, April 27 (Reuters) – Israel is troubled by an unprecedented military exercise between its ally, Turkey, and its arch-foe Syria, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said on Monday.

    Ankara announced on Sunday it would hold its first drill with Syria this week, using ground forces in a border area that has been the focus of a 25-year conflict between Turkey and separatist Kurdish rebels.

    Israel has extensive defence ties to Turkey, a NATO member and among the few Muslim nations to have built an alliance with the Jewish state. The Israeli and Turkish air forces and navies have held joint exercises.

    “Today we see a Syrian-Turkish drill, which is certainly a troubling development,” Barak told reporters. “But I believe that the strategic ties between Israel and Turkey will overcome even Turkey’s need to take part in this drill.” (Writing by Dan Williams; Editing by Charles Dick)

    Source:  www.reuters.com, Apr 27, 2009

  • Turkey hopes to buy S-400 air defense systems from Russia

    Turkey hopes to buy S-400 air defense systems from Russia

    ISTANBUL, April 27 (RIA Novosti) – Turkey, a NATO member, has expressed interest in buying S-400 Triumf air defense systems from Russia, a Russian defense industry official said on Monday.

    “Turkey has expressed a strong interest in buying S-400 air defense systems from Russia,” said Anatoly Aksenov, a senior adviser to the general director of Russian arms export monopoly Rosoboronexport.

    Russia is exhibiting over 120 types of weaponry at the IDEF 2009 arms show in Istanbul on April 27-30. The biennial exhibition has been organized by the Turkish defense industry since 1993.

    Aksenov, who leads the Russian delegation at the IDEF 2009 exhibition, said the possible deliveries of the S-400 to Turkey were discussed during talks with Turkey’s undersecretary for defense industries, Murad Bayar.

    A source in the Russian delegation later told RIA Novosti that the issue had a political aspect and strongly depended on the outcome of the ongoing dispute between Russia and NATO on the deployment of a U.S. missile shield in central Europe.

    “We have explained to Turkish officials that S-400 is not just a simple air defense system but an element of strategic missile defenses, which can be placed in one country but protect the airspace over a number of neighboring countries,” the source said.

    The S-400 Triumf (SA-21 Growler) is designed to intercept and destroy airborne targets at a distance of up to 400 kilometers (250 miles), twice the range of the U.S. MIM-104 Patriot, and 2 1/2 times that of Russia’s S-300PMU-2.

    The system is also believed to be able to destroy stealth aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, and is effective at ranges up to 3,500 kilometers (2,200 miles) and speeds up to 4.8 kilometers (3 miles) per second.

  • Obama’s April 24 statement no comfort for Turks

    Obama’s April 24 statement no comfort for Turks

    by Ferruh Demirmen

    It is becoming almost an annual ritual for American presidents to issue commemorative declarations every year on April 24 to remember the Armenian “victims” of a tragic historic episode that took place almost 100 years ago. How many other foreign historic episodes nearly a century old do the American presidents commemorate every year? The answer: “zero.”

    And wherein lies the secret for such homage to Armenian people? Money, my friends, and lots of it in the form of campaign contributions.

    And the hapless Turks, ever watchful if the dreaded word “genocide” will be spelled out on such occasions, take a deep breath if that does not happen. They sit mostly on the sidelines, waiting for the events to unfold. Never mind that, the “g” word or no “g” word, they may be blamed for atrocities in history they did not commit.

    The Turk’s attitude is the poor man’s consolation for being spared a bigger affront.

    The litany

    Last year, referring to “human dignity” and “epic human tragedy,” President Bush issued a statement to “honor the memory of the victims of one of the greatest tragedies of the 20th century, the mass killings and forced exile of as many as 1.5 million Armenians at the end of the Ottoman Empire.”

    Not a single word about the context, and the Moslem victims.

    It is a melodramatic soap opera that takes place every year, and this year it was no different.

    A few days ago President Obama, referring to “man’s inhumanity to man,” called the 1915 events “one of the great atrocities of the 20th century.” He remembered the “1.5 million Armenians who were subsequently massacred or marched to their death in the final days of the Ottoman Empire.”

    So, Obama didn’t use the “g” word. Big deal! But he used the equivalent term in Armenian: “Medz Yeghern,” meaning Big Calamity. To the Turks, it is nearly as offensive as the “g” word. And Obama, a smart and perceptive man, should have known.

    Never believe the ANCA-type hypocrites who feigned disappointment in Obama’s choice of words because he didn’t use the “g” word. The Dashnakians must have relished Obama’s use of the term “Medz Yeghern.”

    It is the first time an American president pandered to the Freudian psyche of the Armenian lobby.

    The term “genocide” is a legal term, anyway, and notwithstanding the untoward motives of ANCA-swayed politicians, the UN and the International Court of Justice are the only legal entities empowered  to give credibility to that word.

    A matter of balance

    In all honesty, no one can blame Obama, or any other American president for that matter, to commemorate the tragic sufferings and deaths of Armenians during World War I. We must all condemn tragic events that befell humanity.

    But humanity also calls for a sense of balance, or justice. Where is the context, the faithfulness to historical truth, and remembrance of Turkish and Kurdish sufferings and casualties in such condemnations?

    Why is the number of Armenian casualties in these statements, which historical records show could not have exceeded half a million, boosted to 1.5 million?

    Why is there no mention of the betrayal of the Ottomans by the Armenian populace, who, by forming armed gangs, attacked the Ottoman civilians and Ottoman armies from behind during wartime when the country was under Russian, French and British occupation?

    More Moslems perished in the hands of terrorist Armenian gangs than the Armenians under Moslem backlash.

    Do the American presidents, or politicians of all stripes for that matter, have the right to be selective in condemning “man’s inhumanity to man?”

    Did the sufferings and deaths of Turks, Kurds, and even Jews in some cases, matter at all?

    As Obama-the-candidate was being indoctrinated by Dashnakians as to the events during World War I and learn diligently the words “Medz Yeghern,” he should have asked his hosts to teach him how to say “betrayal”or “treason” in Armenian. And cite that word in his April 24 statement.

    Those irresistible greenbacks

    President Obama is a clever man with a huge popularity at home and abroad. Unlike President Bush, who had a habit of bumbling through his unscripted speeches, Obama chooses his words carefully. His language in his April 24 statement is a testimony to the irresistible effectiveness of ANCA’s lobbying efforts. His perception of history was clouded by Armenian propaganda.

    The enthusiastic sponsorship that Obama received on ANCA’s website, through videos and webcasts, in apparent violation of ANCA’s tax-exempt status, is all too fresh in minds.  

    Obama didn’t stop with one-sided depiction of history. Adding insult to injury, he paid homage to Americans of Armenian descent for their contributions to the American society while ignoring Turkish Americans.

    Fair is fair. Does Obama think Turks are zombies of no redeemable value?

    Surely, the greenbacks, lots of them, must have done wonders for the Armenian propagandists in shaping Obama’s mind.

    Dubious diplomacy

    Will the Turks take notice of such indignity? We don’t know. But the higher-ups in the Turkish government in Ankara probably will not. They engaged in secret negotiations in Switzerland toward normalization of relations between Ankara and Yerevan, reporting the “progress” to the Obama administration but leaving the Turkish people – as well as the Azeri people – in the dark.

    Which begs the question: Did those high-flying Turkish diplomats in Switzerland think they were representing the Obama administration instead of the Turkish people?

    The Azeri have a very legitimate stake in the Turkish-Armenian talks because of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.

    In the meanwhile the Azeri, being briefed about the Switzerland talks by the Russians, who in turn were briefed by the Armenians, became incensed at Turks’ audacity at conducting diplomacy behind their back. The Azeri showed their displeasure by starting energy-related talks with the Russian energy giant Gazprom. Turkey’s east-west Nabucco energy transit project, already suffering from a cold bout, has become shakier still. The Azeri gas is supposed to be the initial feed gas for the project. Ankara now has its hands full trying to placate a jittery Baku.

    The imponderables

    Setting all this aside, President Obama perhaps deserves credit for tempering his April 24 statement with some moderation. Even Vice President Joe Biden, the inveterate genocide hawk, softened his stance. Obama could have been harsher in his statement. The moderation, of course, stems from anticipation of a growing dialog between Turkey and Armenia that started in Switzerland. Whether that will materialize, is something else. Obama didn’t want to throw cold water on the process.

    But with his unmistakable pro-Armenian bias, most Turks will remain unimpressed with Obama’s stance.

    The outcome of the Turkish-Armenian talks so far is a “road map” of which details are kept under wraps. Apparently there are no pre-conditions to advance talks to the next level. But the road map has many roadblocks for both sides – as well, for the Azeri.

    In the meantime, the Turkish-American relations will become hostage to the outcome of diplomatic traffic between Ankara, Yerevan and Baku. With “Medz Yeghern” language in the background, it is not a reassuring thought. Turks are not comforted by Obama’s language.

    Separately, there is no guarantee that a Democratically controlled U.S. House of Representatives under the leadership of Nancy Pelosi will not pass a pro-genocide resolution soon.

    ferruh@demirmen.com

  • Summary of DEBKA file Exclusives in the Week Ending April 23, 2009

    Summary of DEBKA file Exclusives in the Week Ending April 23, 2009

    Obama’s charm offensive for radical rulers abandons Israel to Iranian threat
    DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis     18 April: Even if Israel accepted a two-nation solution to its conflict with the Palestinians and removed every last settlement, Barack Obama would not be diverted from his global courtship of radical rulers led by Iran’s Ahmadinejad and Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez.

    Washington will seek to make Israel to follow its lead in accepting a nuclear-armed Iran and firmly oppose a military strike.

    The name and policies of the occupant of the prime minister’s office in Jerusalem do not matter – any more than Tehran’s determination to complete its nuclear weapons program in defiance of the world, or even its first A-bomb test in a year or two, for which intelligence sources report Tehran is already getting set.

    Obama’s Washington believes America can live with a nuclear-armed Iran.

    But Israel cannot, and may have no option but to part ways with the Obama administration on this point. As a nuclear power, Iran will be able to bend Jerusalem to the will of its enemies, make it unconditionally give Syria the Golan plus extra pieces of territory, tamely accept a Hamas-dominated Palestinian West Bank louring over its heartland and let the Lebanese Hizballah terrorize Galilee in the north at will. All three would make hay under Iran’s nuclear shield, while Tehran lords it over the region in the role of regional power conferred by Obama’s grace and favor.

    In no time, Israel would be stripped of most of its defenses.

    US-Iranian reporter victim of Iranian extremists’ bid to block talks with US
    DEBKAfile Special Report     19 April: In the course of opening up US relations with Iran, the Obama administration was confronted April 18 with an unforeseen obstacle: A Tehran court convicted the US-born American-Iranian journalist Roxana Saberi of spying for the US and sentenced the 31-year old to eight years in jail. Her attorney was barred from attending the one-day trial behind closed doors.

    DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources explain the timing of the Saberi case as an attempt by wildly anti-US elements inside Tehran’s power structure, possibly in the Revolutionary Guards Corps and clergy, to choke off an Iranian-US rapprochement. Already, some political circles in Washington are up in arms over the heavy sentence, embarrassing the White House at the very moment it is extending a hand to Iran, reported to entail acceptance of its nuclear program.

    This policy has encountered little open criticism at home till now.

    Twenty-three diplomats storm out of UN Racism conference as Ahmadinejad condemns Israel as “racist”

    20 April: Protesters constantly disrupted the speech as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad condemned Israel for “racism” at the Anti-Racism conference which opened in Geneva Monday, April 20.

    Some were bundled out. He went on to denounce the US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan as an arrogant drive to “expand its sphere of influence.”

    April 20 Briefs: – Israel marks annual Holocaust Remembrance and Heroism Day.
    – Events dedicated to one-and a-half million children who died at Nazi hands.
    – Netanyahu vows Holocaust deniers will never be allowed to carry out another holocaust against the people of Israel.
    – Israel recalls ambassador from Bern for consultations after Swiss president meets Ahmadinejad in Geneva.
    – Excavation to begin at Jamlitz on Berlin’s outskirts for remains of 753 Jewish inmates of Lieberose subsidiary camp shot by Nazis in 1945.
    This would be largest Jewish mass grave outside main concentration camps.
    – President Peres: The Nazis were defeated, anti-Semitism lives and breathes —
    – New Holocaust museum inaugurated in Chicago.

    India puts an Israeli all-weather spy satellite in orbit Monday 20 April: DEBKAfile’s military sources report India rushed through its order for the Israeli Aerospace Industries all-weather, 24-hour surveillance TecSAR after 10 gunmen murdered 165 people in Mumbai last November, including five Israelis.

    The Israeli satellite is considered one of the most advanced in the market, capable of seeing through clouds and carrying out day-and-night all-weather imaging. It is the first time an acquisition of this nature has gone through within five months of ordering.

    The ten gunmen, members of Lashkar-e-Taibe, an operational branch of al Qaeda, landed in Mumbai from the Pakistani port of Karachi after seizing an Indian vessel on the Arabian Sea. Their undetected landing showed New Delhi a big hole remains in its defenses against terrorists.

    Cheney steps into row over CIA’s grilling methods as Obama moves to calm crisis 21 April: Former Vice President Dick Cheney formally asked for the declassification of legal memos which proved that the CIA’s interrogation techniques such as water-boarding worked. He said that last week’s decision by Obama to release memos which bared the harsh methods the CIA employed for extracting information from terrorists was a mistake.

    Cont. Next Column

    		 Cheney spoke to Fox News April 20 as President Barack Obama paid his first visit to Central Intelligence Agency headquarters at Langley, Virginia, Monday, April 20, to tell its staff that their work was “more important than ever.” But he insisted that the agency staff must uphold the rule of law and the nation’s values in its continued fight on terror.

    This morale-booster, unusually broadcast live, came after the criticism voiced by former agency director Gen. Michael Hayden of publication of the memos, which covered “waterboarding”, week-long sleep deprivation, forced nudity and painful positions.
    Hayden had insisted that the release would make it more difficult to get useful information from suspected terrorists. “I think that teaching our enemies our outer limits, by taking techniques off the table, we have made it more difficult… for CIA officers to defend the nation,” he said.

    Iran could produce first nuke in 60 days with 7,000 centrifuges working 24/7 – Western experts DEBKAfile’s military sources predict that Iran could turn out nuclear weapons some time in the next 12 months. This estimate is based on Tehran’s announcement that 7,000 centrifuges are in operation to enrich uranium. If all those machines were to work at top speed day and night, seven days a week, they could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to build a bomb in 60 days, say some intelligence sources. According to American experts, given the current rate of the program’s development, Iran will be in a position to manufacture as many as 60 nuclear bombs and warheads in 12 to 18 months.

    This judgment was confirmed by Israel’s military intelligence (AMAN) chief, Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin in his latest briefing to the cabinet Monday, April 20. He reported that Iran is going all-out for enriched uranium from overseas to shorten the process.

    Barak seeks US anti-Qassam missile Vulcan Phalanx after Israeli Iron Dome fails 21 April: The population of southwestern Israel will remain vulnerable to attack after eight years should Hamas revive the Qassam missile blitz from the Gaza Strip.

    Defense minister Ehud Barak, after finally accepting that the Iron Dome still under development will not be up to the task, applied to Washington to purchase Vulcan Phalanx systems worth $25 million each. Raytheon recently tested a new version fitted with a solid-state Laser Area Defense System (LADS). It outdid expectations by intercepting 60mm mortar shells fired from a distance of 450 meters.

    Israel’s Red Color warning system works for missiles only – not mortar attack. However, Israeli cannot expect to obtain the Vulcan Phalanx any time soon; the US army ordered all the Raytheon manufacturers’ product for years ahead and our Washington sources doubt that in the current cool climate governing relations, US defense secretary Robert Gates will be too forthcoming.

    Israel shocked by Obama’s approval of large Turkish arms sale to Lebanon
    DEBKAfile Exclusive Report     22 April: DEBKAfile describes senior Israeli military circles as staggered by the discovery that US president Barack Obama had approved a large Turkish arms sale to the Lebanese army, including the services of Turkish military instructors, without informing Jerusalem. This was taken as further proof that the US president is deaf to Israel’s immediate security concerns. When he signed the arms deal in Ankara Tuesday, April 21, Lebanese president Gen. Michel Suleiman once again pledged publicly to place the Lebanese army at the disposal of the Shiite terrorist Hizballah in any confrontation with Israel.

    More than 50 percent of Lebanon’s fighting manpower are Shiites loyal to Hizballah.
    The conviction is growing in Jerusalem that the US president endorsed the transaction as a means of breaking up the long-standing military pact between Israel and Turkey, because it interferes with his Middle East objectives.

    Suleiman coordinates Egyptian-Israeli positions for talks with Obama
    Invites foreign minister Lieberman to Cairo
    DEBKAfile Exclusive Report     23 April: Egypt’s senior negotiator, intelligence minister Gen. Omar Suleiman met the prime minister, defense minister, foreign minister, opposition leader and president in Jerusalem Wednesday, April 22, and brought Avigdor Lieberman an invitation to visit Cairo.

    After exposing Hizballah’s Iranian-backed machinations to destabilize the Egyptian government, Cairo finds it is fighting an enemy shared with Jerusalem. The Egyptian visitor and his Israeli hosts therefore sought to define common interests ahead of the separate White House talks Netanyahu, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas will hold between late May and early June.

    Barack Obama announced the invitations after his conversation with the visiting King of Jordan, Abdullah II at which he accepted the extended Arab peace plan initiated by Saudi Arabia and reaffirmed at an Arab foreign ministers’ conference in Amman this month. He will present this formula to his three Middle East visitors as the starting point for the diplomatic process.

    Three major flies in Washington’s peacemaking ointment are, one, the rival Palestinian Hamas and Fatah factions failed to achieve a power-sharing accord and so Abbas represents only one Palestinian faction – and not necessarily the largest one. Second, Syria stands opposed to the Arab peace initiative.

    Netanyahu will lay emphasis on Iran’s aggressive posture, military nuclear program and sponsorship of rejectionist and terrorist Middle East elements as the major
  • South Caucasus Presents Tangled Web Of Shifting Allegiances

    South Caucasus Presents Tangled Web Of Shifting Allegiances

    2812321A 12B6 4955 8316 6F73991D2116 w393 s

    Turkish soldiers guard a road at Dogu Kapi, on the Turkish-Armenian border, on April 15.

    April 24, 2009 By Brian Whitmore Anticipation is in the air in the Armenian village of Margara.

    Roads are being repaired. Visitors are inquiring about real estate prices. Talk abounds of new hotels, shops, and restaurants.

    A sleepy border hamlet of just 1,500 people, Magara is the site of the only bridge linking Armenia with Turkey — a bridge that has not been used since Ankara closed the border and cut off diplomatic relations with Yerevan in 1993 over the war in Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Now, with talk of an impending Armenian-Turkish rapprochement reaching a fever pitch, locals like 70-year-old Demaxia Manukian are hopeful that their isolation is at an end.

    “The more consumers there will be, the better it will be for us. Infrastructure will improve — the streets and the water system,” Manukian tells RFE/RL’s Armenian Service, stressing that the town will need to be spruced up in order to impress all the new visitors if the border opens.

    “After all, it’s a matter of prestige. That’s why it has to get better.”

    The thaw in relations between Ankara and Yerevan, which began shortly after Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian took office a year ago, has picked up steam in recent months with high-level backing from both the United States and Russia.

    The issue takes on added relevance this week, as Armenians on April 24 commemorate the 94th anniversary of the onset of mass killings of ethnic Armenians by Ottoman Turks at the end of World War I — a longstanding source of tension between Turkey and Armenia.

    Turkey’s Foreign Ministry announced this week that the two sides had agreed to a road map to normalize ties. In testimony before the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton praised Ankara and Yerevan for taking “bold steps” toward reconciliation, adding that “normalizing relations and opening their borders will foster a better environment for confronting that shared, tragic history.”

    But the complex Turkish-Armenian relationship does not exist in a vacuum. It is but one thread in a tangled web of grievances and mistrust that have long plagued the South Caucasus — and sparked a sometimes fractious race for influence among the international powers drawn by the lure of energy and strategic location.

    Historical Animosities

    When the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, Turkey was the first country to recognize Armenia’s independence, but the warm neighborly relations were short-lived.

    Turkey and Azerbaijan, both predominantly Muslim countries, are close allies. When Armenia occupied Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh region, Ankara broke off relations with Yerevan and closed the border in solidarity with its ally.

    Azerbaijan remains deeply suspicious of a Turkish-Armenian reconciliation and has hinted that it would scuttle the regional balance if its interests are not safeguarded.

    Moreover, Yerevan’s longstanding claim that the mass killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I constituted genocide infuriates Ankara and has long been a roadblock to normalizing ties.

    The Turkey-Armenia road map, brokered by Switzerland, comes as Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be edging closer to a resolution of the Karabakh standoff, with apparent help from Moscow.

    Both the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders traveled to Russia this week for talks with officials, and both offered carefully worded, but optimistic, assessments of the talks.

    Meanwhile, Azerbaijan, which fears it will be the odd man out in a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, has turned a cold shoulder to its traditional allies in Ankara in recent weeks, with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev refusing a recent invitation to travel to Turkey.

    At the same time, Baku has been cozying up to Moscow.

    AB3B3EBF 7FD1 43F5 BE68 F7E612C372FE w220 sAzerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (right) with Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev in Barbikha on April 17Baku may be seeking to remind Ankara that as the sole energy supplier in the South Caucasus, it is free to choose its friends, and its issues. Analysts say Turkey is trying desperately to persuade Azerbaijan that an opening to Armenia is in everybody’s interests.

    “The Turkish strategic perspective and the message that they constantly articulate to Baku is that over the longer term, a normalization with Armenia will actually enhance Turkish leverage and influence in the region — which, from the Turkish point of view is good for Ankara and good for Baku,” says Richard Giragosian, director of the Yerevan-based Center for National and International Studies.

    “This is a Turkish strategic agenda based on Turkish national interests. It is not to curry favor with Brussels, nor is it to please Washington. But in the long run from a Turkish perspective, it’s good for the region, it’s good for Azerbaijan, and it’s good for Turkey.”

    Baku, however, appears unconvinced.

    During his visit to Moscow on April 17, Aliyev said he saw no obstacles to cutting a deal to sell natural gas to Russia’s Gazprom. Aliyev added that Baku hoped to diversify its natural gas exports, most of which are currently sent west to Europe via Turkey.

    Such a move would be a severe blow to the proposed U.S.- and EU-backed Nabucco pipeline, which would transport gas from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to Europe via the South Caucasus, bypassing Russia.

    Baku has also warned that an open Turkish-Armenian border “could lead to tensions in the region and would be contradictory to the interests of Azerbaijan.”

    Shifting Alliances

    Analysts say Aliyev is attempting play the gas card to get the best possible deal in a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Specifically, Baku is seeking Russian support for the withdrawal of Armenian troops from regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh.

    A Karabakh resolution would be a feather in Moscow’s cap as it seeks to reassert itself in its former Soviet territories. But a far greater draw — for Moscow and all the international powers keeping toeholds in the South Caucasus — is energy.

    The South Caucasus’ role as a transit hub for oil and gas from the Caspian Sea and Central Asia to Europe is casting a long shadow over the ongoing process as Russia and the West seek to control these crucial energy routes. Ilgar Mammadov, a Baku-based political analyst, says “everybody is playing a sophisticated game.”

    After the Armenian-Turkish road map was announced on April 22, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry released a statement saying that “the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations must proceed in parallel with the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied lands of Azerbaijan.”

    But Mammadov says Baku’s strategy has risks, as it could push Azerbaijan even “farther into the hands of Russia” and away from the West.

    “Baku is trying to use the advantage of its geopolitical location to influence the position of its European and American partners. But if the Russians respond to this policy in a very material way, like pulling Armenian forces back from some of the occupied territories, I think the foreign policy orientation of this regime in Baku may become irreversible,” Mammadov says.

    If the Russians respond to this policy in a very material way, like pulling Armenian forces back from some of the occupied territories, I think the foreign policy orientation of this regime in Baku may become irreversible.The moves toward Moscow by Baku, which until now has enjoyed a degree of independence due to its energy wealth, are being watched nervously in Georgia, whose ties with Russia have sunk in recent years, bottoming out during the five-day war over South Ossetia in August.

    With no energy resources of its own, and an international partner — the United States — that has grown more accommodating of Moscow in recent months, Georgia may be in the position to suffer most in the event of a resurgence of Russian influence in the region.

    Armenia, which has the strongest traditional ties with Moscow despite its relative lack of resources, may prove a more equal partner if the border with Turkey is opened and its commercial isolation ends. In this way, Russia has a vested interest in seeing the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement move forward, and may be using the Karabakh process to help nudge it along.

    In a recent interview with RFE/RL, Deputy U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza — who is one of three co-chairmen of OSCE-sponsored mediation on Karabakh — stressed that Washington sees the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation and a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement as “separate tracks.” He added, however, that negotiations on Karabakh are gaining momentum.

    “I honestly can say that I feel more than ever a constructive spirit and that we are actually entering a new phase, I hope, of the negotiations,” Bryza said. “The presidents spent a year getting to know each other a bit and knowing each other’s positions. And now I feel we are moving to a new phase with a deeper more detailed discussion of the remaining elements of the basic principles that need to be resolved.”

    Football Diplomacy 2.0

    Analysts say, however, that Turkish-Armenian reconciliation will likely precede any settlement on Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Sabina Freizer, director of the Brussels-based The International Crisis Group’s Europe program says many Caucasus-watchers are pointing to October, when Sarkisian is due to visit Turkey to watch a World Cup qualifying soccer match between Armenia and Turkey, as a possible date to close the deal.

    “I am quite optimistic and I believe that if the border is opened and diplomatic relations are established this will change things fundamentally in the South Caucasus. I personally believe that at this point the two sides seem to be close enough that the border should open quite quickly,” Freizer said. “But of course the timing is very political. One date that people are talking about is during President Sarkisian’s visit to Turkey, if it occurs in October. That might be a good time to open the border.”

    If an agreement is reached in time for Sarkisian’s visit, it would provide a tidy conclusion to the “football diplomacy” that the Armenian president began in September, when he hosted Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Yerevan to watch the last match between the two national teams.

    While the United States has strongly backed Turkey and Armenia normalizing relations, the momentum is also causing some political discomfort for U.S. President Barack Obama.

    During a visit to Turkey earlier this month, Obama encouraged the talks between Ankara and Yerevan, saying they “could bear fruit very quickly.”

    The recent progress, however, will make it difficult for Obama to make good on a campaign promise to Armenian-Americans to recognize the 90-year-old mass killings as genocide. Such a move now would infuriate Turkey and potentially scuttle any deal to open the Armenian border.

    But back in the border village of Margara, residents say they are ready to move beyond painful historical grievances.

    Three of Demaxia Manukian’s uncles perished in the mass killings, but he nevertheless says he is ready to move on.

    “There are Turks and there are Armenians. The Turks are human beings, too. They rock their children in their cradles just like we do,” Manukian said. “But when politics get injected into this, that is the danger.”

    RFE/RL’s Armenian and Azerbaijani services contributed to this report

    • Print
    • Email
    • Comment (4)

    Would you like to post to this forum? Name * Enter your name Enter your name Location City City E-mail Enter your email Your email address is invalid Comment *
    Your comment is empty or longer than 4000 characters. Your comment is empty or longer than 4000 characters. Disclaimer
    Reader comments in no way reflect the views or opinions of RFE/RL correspondents, contributors, or staff.
    Before you post a comment, please read the forum rules Are you human? Please enter the numbers below: Comments 1-4 (of 4) by: J from: US April 24, 2009 20:38 To Dasiey “from Canada”- your poor English betrays your IQ

    by: Dasiey from: Canada April 24, 2009 17:18 Mr. Whitmore,

    Based on the western media reports such as New York Times,Armenian have sculpted women and children in Azerbaijan just 17 years ago!!
    As a humanitarian advocate ,I believe we can Not be blind to the facts that Armenian committed genocide in Azerbaijan just 17 years ago in the city of Kojli.
    Armenia so far have not respected The latest U.N Resolution( March 14/2008) which asks Armenia to withdraw from %20 of Azerbaijan’s occupied lands.

    Further more,Armenian terrorist group(ASALA)was removed from the list of terrorist in North America is still active! This is their media’s website:

    The question is Which nation is the victim?

    by: Armenian from: US April 24, 2009 13:16 Armenians will never move on until Turkey accepts genocide. There is no nation on the Earth that could forget genocide, and definitely, not Armenians. It is not politics, it is a matter of historical justice. So please stop publishing rubbish.

    by: J from: US April 24, 2009 11:44 Why is Azerbaijan constantly mentioned- it is irrelevant to the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation issue. They should know that by now.

  • Armenia Talks Strain Turkey’s Ties With Azerbaijan

    Armenia Talks Strain Turkey’s Ties With Azerbaijan

    Perceived cooling in relationship between Ankara and Baku may have ramifications for the latter’s energy strategy.

    By Seymur Kazimov in Baku (CRS No. 490, 24-Apr-09)

    The refusal of Azerbaijan’s president to attend an international conference in Istanbul earlier this month has sparked speculation that Baku may be using its energy resources to exert pressure on its old Turkish ally.

    Ilham Aliev reportedly declined to attend the meeting of the Alliance of Civilisations initiative on April 6-7, aimed at fostering dialogue between the West and Muslim countries, in protest against Turkey’s perceived new policy on Armenia

    While not going to Istanbul, Aliev accepted his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev’s invitation to visit Moscow on April 16 to talk about closer cooperation in the gas field.

    That day, the Turkish foreign minister, Ali Babajan, took part in a meeting of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation organisation, BSEC, in Yerevan, Armenia.

    Until now, Azerbaijan has been selling gas to its ally Turkey at half the market price of 380-430 US dollars per thousand cubic metres.

    This favourable price is now expected to go up, especially as Russia has said it is willing to buy Azeri gas for what it costs in the world market.

    Russia and Azerbaijan have been sounding each other out over closer energy ties for some months now.

    The chairman of Gazprom, Aleksei Miller, visited Azerbaijan to formalise Russia’s interest in buying natural gas from Azerbaijan last June.

    On March 27, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan, SOCAR, and the Russian energy giant signed a memorandum, pursuant to which Azerbaijan is to start supplying gas to Russia from January 2010.

    Opinions vary on what has prompted Azerbaijan to seek closer cooperation with Russia in the energy field.

    Some experts suggest Aliev is revising his options with Turkey, in response to the prospect of the latter reopening its border with Armenia.

    Turkey closed the border with Armenia in 1993 in sympathy with Azerbaijan over the dispute over Nagorny-Karabakh.

    Russia has hitherto been seen as an ally of Armenia rather than Azerbaijan in the region.

    However, Baku political analyst Ilgar Mamedov downplays talk that Azerbaijan is using its gas wealth to take a form of diplomatic revenge on Turkey.

    He believes Aliev is more concerned about Turkey’s stance on selling transited gas than on the possible unsealing of the Turkish-Armenian border, or the Karabakh issue.

    “Azerbaijan wants its gas from the Shah-Deniz gas field to reach Europe via Turkey but Turkey wants to [remain able to] buy this gas for 150 dollars and then sell it on to Europe for 400,” he explained.

    “That scheme does not sit well with Aliev… That’s where the cause of the tension lies.”

    Mamedov said Turkey’s position on reselling the gas was justifiable, however, because it had closed its borders with Armenia for 16 years now, damaging ties with European countries and the US as a result.

    “It would be wrong to fault Turkey’s position on the gas issue,” he said. “Aliev has allowed himself to be guided by commercial interests alone and has launched a campaign against Turkey that is absolutely unacceptable.”

    The same expert said Aliev might have calculated that by selling gas to Russia he would secure Moscow’s sympathy over the dispute with Armenia, while Turkey would continue to support Azerbaijan over Nagorny Karabakh in any case.

    But the expert warned that if Azerbaijan now increased the price of gas for Turkey, the latter might rethink its entire stance on the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    The Turkish newspaper Hurriyet was the first to suggest that Azerbaijan had declared a “gas war” against Turkey, and that Ankara was reviewing its relationship with Baku in consequence.

    Sources in Azerbaijan’s industry and energy ministry quickly denied the Turkish media reports, saying the Azeri authorities would have already come up with a response “if the information had been true”.

    But another Turkish newspaper, Yenicag, has carried similar information. It also suggested that Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party, the AKP, was now also questioning Turkey’s role in the planned Nabucco gas pipeline.

    This is intended to pump gas from Azerbaijan and other states in Central Asia to Europe via Georgia and Turkey, circumventing Armenia.

    The pipeline has been touted as a much-needed alternative route for natural gas to reach Europe, now increasingly worried about its heavy dependence on Russia for gas.

    While freeing Europe from energy dependence on Russia, the pipeline is also seen as a key strategic and economic weapon for Azerbaijan, strengthening its hand against landlocked, energy-poor Armenia.

    Azerbaijan’s discovered natural gas reserves are estimated at around 1.5 trillion cubic metres.

    Companies participating in the 12.4 billion US dollars’ worth Nabucco project are OMV of Austria, MOL of Hungary, Bulgargaz of Bulgaria, Transgaz of Romania, BOTAS of Turkey and RWE of Germany.

    Construction was initially supposed to start in 2009 and be completed by 2013, though the world economic crisis has put a dampener on those plans.

    Ilham Shaban, head of the Oil Research Centre in Azerbaijan,
    dismisses criticism in the Turkish and western press of Azerbaijan’s energy policies as ungrounded.

    He also denies that growing energy ties between Azerbaijan and Russia will come at the expense of Baku’s old ties to Turkey.

    The two countries, Shaban says, had long been supplying each other with electricity. “Negotiations are underway between Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey regarding the gas issue,” he continued.

    “I assess the agreement between Azerbaijan and Russia as highly important, because ethnic Azerbaijanis make up 11 per cent of Russia’s population.”

    Political analyst Haleddin Ibragimli said he doubted deeper energy ties with Russia would much affect the drive to settle the Karabakh conflict.

    Azeri officials, meanwhile, reiterate that Azerbaijan is a sovereign state that pursues an independent policy and needs no advice on what countries it should cooperate with in the field of energy.

    In Moscow, Aliev said Azerbaijan and Russia would be protecting their energy security and their interests as producers and exporters of energy.

    Answering a question from the Interfax new agency about new agreements on transit and cooperation in the gas field, Aliev cautioned that the whole issue still remained under discussion.

    “Gazprom and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan are busy discussing an agreement,” he said.

    “As is known, a memorandum has already been signed that corroborates the existence of mutual interests. For our part, there will be no restrictions to cooperation in the gas field.”

    Later, the president said the two countries also planned to work more closely together over oil, increasing the volume being pumped into the pipeline that runs from Baku to Novorossiysk in Russia.

    Another potential agreement concerns upgrading the gas pipeline from Baku to Novo-Filya in the near future. This 200 km-long pipeline runs via the capital of Azerbaijan along the Caspian Sea coast to the border with Russia.

    Fariz Huseinov of Memphis University says Turkey stands to lose out more than Azerbaijan, if Ankara alienates Baku over Armenia. This is because Turkey’s role as a transit country for Azerbaijan’s gas is negotiable.

    According to Huseinov, Azerbaijan had already signed an energy agreement with Ukraine that potentially relieved Azerbaijan from any dependence on Turkey as a transit country.

    Huseinov was referring to the one-on-one meeting between Aliev and his Ukraine counterpart Viktor Yushchenko in Baku earlier this month, where a number of protocols were signed for closer cooperation in 2009-10.

    “That would mean we could reach Europe otherwise than via Turkey,” he said. “We might use a route linking Georgia the Black Sea and Ukraine, detouring both Russia and Turkey.”

    Seymur Kazimov is an IWPR contributor.