Category: Turkey

Erdogan’s White House Visit May Have Only Delayed the Inevitable Storm
Sinan Ciddi

Board of Contributors

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and U.S. President Donald Trump hold a news conference at the White House on Nov. 13, 2019. Other than Trump, Erdogan appears to have few friends left in Washington.

(HALIL SAGIRKAYA/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Highlights

Despite some worries otherwise, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Washington was largely free of drama, but it also didn’t achieve any breakthroughs toward resolving long-standing bilateral disputes.

U.S. President Donald Trump essentially has given Turkey a chance to reconsider its position on buying S-400 missile defense systems from Russia, dangling the possibility of readmittance into the F-35 program as a lure.

Satisfying Washington will be tough, as doing so would likely anger Russia, which could retaliate by imposing measures on Turkey that could prove damaging to the interests of both Erdogan and his country.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s White House visit on Nov. 13 can be regarded as a win for Erdogan only in a narrow, yet significant sense. Amid the threat of looming U.S. sanctions, Erdogan’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump ended with the Turkish president voicing Ankara’s demands in the Oval office and, apparently, managing to stave off punitive U.S. measures.

To be clear, Erdogan’s visit resolved none of the long-standing bilateral disputes between the United States and Turkey, and Erdogan — who is viewed with contempt by nearly all U.S. federal agencies — would not have been welcome in Washington had it not been for Trump’s personal invitation. Turkey, after all, has few friends left in the U.S. capital after its recent incursion into northern Syria to attack the U.S.-backed Kurdish military forces that have been fighting the Islamic State and its purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense systems, which many see as a violation of its NATO commitments.

Conversely, it is unclear what Trump gained from giving numerous photo opportunities to a leader whom American governmental institutions widely regard as an unreliable partner at best, as well as an authoritarian leader who is visibly cozying up to Russia at the expense of the Western alliance’s interests. Most observers of Turkey have reached the conclusion that the alliance between Turkey and the United States exists in name only and definitely not in substance. There is ample reason to believe that Turkey and the United States will continue to drift further apart without more substantive engagement on the issues that divide the beleaguered allies.

Erdogan arrived in Washington with a long list of requests, most of which seemed aimed at preserving himself and his government. Worries that the United States was going to disclose some of the more questionable sources of Erdogan’s vast personal wealth and the future of Turkey’s Halkbank apparently topped the list. Last month, U.S. prosecutors in the southern district of New York charged state-owned Halkbank with violating U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Erdogan arrived in Washington with a long list of requests, most of which seemed aimed at preserving himself and his government.
Additionally, Erdogan angered administration officials and a group of U.S. senators who attended his Oval Office meeting with Trump when he showed a video on an iPad depicting the leader of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazloum Abdi, as a terrorist who should be apprehended and handed over to Turkey rather than invited to visit Washington. When U.S. Sen. Lindsay Graham brushed aside this act of propaganda, the focus of the discussion moved to Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense systems. From the joint statement that followed Trump’s meeting with Erdogan, it is clear the United States was interested in driving home one key ask of Turkey: Find a verifiable way to shelve the S-400s and, in return, rejoin the F-35 fighter jet program. If not, expect severe and debilitating sanctions.

Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place

On the S-400 issue, Erdogan faces an interesting conundrum and one of the most consequential decisions he will make. More than just losing face, Turkey would find it difficult to nullify its purchase of the S-400s. From past experience, Erdogan is keenly aware that angering Russian President Vladimir Putin is a sensitive issue, and there are credible reports suggesting Putin could release a trove of embarrassing and compromising materials that would showcase Erdogan and his family’s questionable financial dealings and international connections. Putin also could punish Turkey economically by terminating existing trade and tourism agreements vital to the health of Turkey’s economy.

On the flip side, failing to satisfy Washington on the S-400 issue could unleash a barrage of sanctions. For the time being, the United States appears to have given Turkey an opportunity to think hard about the issue and act appropriately. As it stands, the U.S. case against Halkbank and a proposed resolution in the U.S. Senate to recognize the killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks as genocide (the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a similar resolution last month) have both been put on ice as a gesture of goodwill and a signal that the United States is serious in its interest to bring Turkey back into the Western fold. As aggressive and credible as the U.S. position may be, some American officials worry that pushing Turkey too hard and punishing it with sanctions will drive it deeper into the open arms of Russia. Although Turkey has few friends in the U.S. Defense and State departments, no one is interested in Turkey formally pledging itself to the Russian camp.

A Fatigued and Insecure Ruler

It appears from observing Erdogan that hubris increasingly masks a lack of confidence, while insecurity shadows and undergirds his 17-year rule. Shortly before his scheduled visit to Washington, Erdogan gave a 36-minute speech on the 81st anniversary of the death of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the modern Turkish Republic. He underplayed the achievements of the republic to focus instead on a series of inaccurate observations that modern-day Turkey’s successes basically lay in the heritage of its predecessor, the Ottoman Empire. Lack of historical knowledge and nuance aside, it apparently was lost on Erdogan that the Ottoman state would never have allowed someone with a common background like his to occupy an influential government position, let alone become head of state.

Erdogan should not be underestimated, however. He is a master tactician, with the ability and will to change the public discourse and political climate to his advantage on a whim. Over the past six years or so, he has mobilized such prowess solely for his self-preservation. It remains to be seen if he can use his powers and influence in the service of his country’s national interests.
November 21, 2019
Erdoğan’s Turkish Delight: The Dangerous Reign of Ankara’s Corrupt President

by Daniel Pipes

The National Interest
November 13, 2019

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rule over Turkey began in March 2003 and divides precisely into two eras.

In the first half, which lasted 8 years and 4 months, he was brilliant. He oversaw unprecedented economic growth and regional influence. He tackled long-festering problems, such as the Kurdish issue, while discreetly handling his military overlords. His string of successes culminated in July 2011 with an assertion of conFmetrol of the military, an accomplishment that had eluded all of his predecessors.

The 8 years and 4 months since that turning point has seen that earlier brilliance vaporize, replaced by inconstancy, self-indulgence, and unpredictability. Count the ways:

At a dramatic meeting on July 29, 2011, Turkey’s army chief-of-staff and the entire military command resigned, giving Erdoğan control over the armed forces.

To begin with, democratic legitimacy curdled into dictatorship. Erdoğan appeared on the national scene as an honest, conservative, pious figure who precisely fit Turkey’s mood. On its initial appearance in 2002, his rookie Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) won an impressive 34 percent of the vote (and an astonishing 66 percent of the seats in parliament). An impressive economic and political record enlarged the AKP’s vote to 46 percent in 2007 and 50 percent in 2011. After that, as Erdoğan’s popularity waned, he relied instead on an array of electoral abuses, from dominating media coverage, to having goons attack rival parties’ offices, to outright ballot shenanigans.

Erdoğan’s astute leadership early on attracted a quite diverse group of leaders, such as the country’s most powerful Islamist figure, Fethullah Gülen and its leading Islamist politician, Abdullah Gül. It also attracted skilled technical figures such as the economic sage Ali Babacan and the foreign policy guru Ahmet Davutoğlu. Today, these four are all Erdoğan’s foes, justifiably opposing him for his excesses.

Early Erdoğan allies (clockwise from top left) Fethullah Gülen, Abdullah Gül, Ali Babacan, and Ahmet Davutoğlu are now staunch foes.

Erdoğan’s first era saw impressive economic growth featuring bountiful foreign direct investment as well as Turkish exports, engineering, and entrepreneurship. Symbolic of this achievement, the government transformed Turkish Airlines from a minor, poorly run national carrier into a prize-winning global behemoth boasting the most scheduled destinations (315) and the most countries (126) of any airline.

But those glory years are now a receding memory, mostly due to Erdoğan’s own shortcomings: his kleptocratic ways, his nepotism (a son-in-law serves as minister of finance), and idiosyncratic views. In particular, he insists, against all evidence, that high interest rates lead to high inflation. Symptomatic of these errors, the Turkish lira lost almost three-quarters of its value, sliding from 61 U.S. cents in July 2011 to 17 cents today.

Turkish Airlines raises its profile by associating with the likes of FC Barcelona.

A mania for public works created a uselessly mammoth Istanbul airport, the country’s largest mosque, and much else. There is even talk of a canal across the Bosporus. Erdoğan’s grandiosity also takes the form of personal facilities such as a Boeing 747-8 aircraft valued at $500 million and the world’s largest palace, a 1,150-room monstrosity illegally built on a protected forest land. Beyond creature comforts, the possibility exists that this megalomaniac will declare himself caliph of all Muslims, perhaps on the centenary of the abolition of the Istanbul-based caliphate, either on March 10, 2021 (by the Islamic calendar) or March 4, 2024 (by the Christian one).

In foreign policy, a once-impressive “zero problems with the neighbors” regional approach has degraded into a dismal “nothing but problems with neighbors” reality. Syria offers the most dramatic shift: before July 2011, relations between Ankara and Damascus reached unprecedented highs, with augmented travel and trade, coordinated diplomacy, and something perhaps unique: the two leaders and their wives jointly vacationing together. The half-way mark of Erdoğan’s tenure then saw relations deteriorate, leading to Turkey’s sponsorship of ISIS, its shutting off 40 percent of the water flowing into Syria, and finally an invasion of the country’s northeast. Beyond Damascus, relations are toxic with Baghdad, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Jerusalem, and Cairo. Tiny Qatar stands out as Ankara’s only state ally.

After 2011, Erdoğan took flamboyant steps that alienated the big powers.

Looking beyond the region, Erdoğan after 2011 took flamboyant steps that alienated the big powers. His thugs beat up protestors on the streets of Washington, D.C. and his air force shot down a Russian fighter jet. His motormouth accused Angela Merkel of “Nazi measures” and provocatively condemned Chinese treatment of its Turkish Muslim Uyghur population. Erdoğan eventually took steps to mollify each of these governments, improving relations without undoing the earlier damage.

Whither Turkey? Storms loom, with two dangers standing out: the economy and foreign policy. Economic laws bend for no man, not even for Sultan Erdoğan. Should he persist, as seems likely, in his nonsensical theory about interest rates, plus continue to alienate Western economic powers, he will either lead Turkey to disaster or to Chinese overlordship.

Foreign policy poses the other great danger. Abducting dissident Turkish citizens, drilling in Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone, and invading a neighbor point to an arrogance that, given Erdoğan’s isolated position, leaves him highly exposed. Some foreign misadventure – perhaps the Syrian one – could lead to his political demise as well as that of the AKP.

In an unusual development, President George W. Bush invited Erdoğan in December 2002 when he was only AKP chairman, paving the way for him to become prime minister.

American leaders have been basically clueless about Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. George W. Bush facilitated his becoming prime minister. Barack Obama proudly called him a friend. Donald Trump invited the invasion of Syria. The Department of Defense deludes itself into thinking the NATO ally of old one day will return. The State Department relies on its traditional instinct to appease.

The time has come not just to perceive Erdoğan as an enemy but to anticipate the threat he presents to his country, his region, and beyond. This means withdrawing Turkey from the outdated “NATO ally” category and seeing it in the same league as Iran: partner of America’s enemies, ideological aggressor, sponsor of jihadi violence, and nuclear-weapons aspirant. Only this way can one prepare for the troubles ahead.

Daniel Pipes is president of the Middle East Forum.

November 20, 2019
Temsilciler meclisine açıklayıcı bir mesaj ….. 296 – Armenian genocide

To the attention of: U.S. Representatives James Baird (IN), Kevin Brady (TX), Susan Brooks (IN), Larry Bucshon (IN), Tom Cole (OK), Virginia Foxx (NC), Andy Harris (MD), Mark Meadows (NC), Greg Pence (IN), Mike Rogers (AL), and Mac Thornberry (TX), through their Chiefs of Staff.

Copy: Adam Schiff (CA), Eliot Engel (NY), Speaker Nancy Pelosi (CA), for information, through their Chiefs of Staff.

Honorable Representatives:

I, as an individual from near Houston, Texas, would like to take this oppurtunity to thank you for your courage and principled stand by voting “NO” on the highly biassed anti-Turkish H.Res.296 bill (“Affirming the United States record on the Armenian Genocide”) when it came for a vote on the House floor on October 29. The bill passed overwhelmingly with 11 to 405 votes, in an atmosphere that was highly adversarial against Turkey due to the Syrian situation.

The vast majority of the Representatives voted with their emotions rather than prudence and objectivity, and in so doing capitulated to the well-endowed, newly energized Armenian lobby that had tried very hard to have such a resolution passed by the Congress over the past 35 years.

In adopting H.Res.296, there was not even the pretense of a debate or deliberation on a subject that is highly controversial, dealing with century-old events in a far-away land called Ottoman Anatolia. What mattered, for the vast majority of Representatives, was that Turkey had to be punished – and history, law, objectivity, and due process did not matter! Representative Eliot L. Engel, the Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, did not even have the decency to have a few counter arguments aired against the bill before he pushed it hurriedly for passage. My understanding was that, even the traditional House Rules were dispensed with.

I will not delve here into the Syrian situation, which is a totally different subject, but by passing H.Res.296 and “punishing” Turkey, the House did great injustice to people of Turkish heritage like myself by ascribing to them the most hideous crime in human history: the act of genocide. Even if we leave aside the current political reality of Turkey being a critical NATO member, and a partner in the fight against Islamic error in Afghanistan, how many Representatives know that Turks, at the urging of the U.S., fought alongside American soldiers in Korea from 1950 to 1971, with 751 of them dying on the battlefield and more than 21,000 wounded?

Turks do not expect expressions of gratitude for their sacrifices in Korea, but they do expect a measure of justice and fairness.

And going further back into history, how many Representatives know that Turks welcomed Jews that were persecuted during the Spanish inquisition in the 15th century, helped mass-starving Irish people by sending shiploads of food during the 1845-1849 Great Famine, and rescued thousands of Jews from the Nazi terror during WW-II?

Could Turks, who embraced many minorities of different ethnic origin and religious faith for centuries, commit genocide against one particular minority that was considered a “loyal nation”?

Are the U.S. Congresspersons, including the California Representative Adam Schiff, who is Jewish, aware that Dashnak Armenians corroborated with the Nazis during World War II, as revealed in the article, “Der Deutsch-Armenischen Gesellschaft,” published in the German magazine “Mitteilungsblatt” in 1939? The 22,000-men-strong Armenian 812th Battalion (“Armenian Legion”) was created by the Wehrmacht in 1941 and was commanded by General Dro Drastamat Kanayan, a war criminal on his own from the time he was a guerrilla leader in eastern Anatolia and later the army chief in the short-lived First Republic of Armenia in 1918-1920.

Distinguished Representatives:

“Armenian genocide” is a mere allegation that has no historical basis, and likewise no legal basis. Hundreds of historians do not consider the 1915 events in Ottoman Anatolia as genocide. The 1948 UN Convention on Genocide as well various court rulings from Europe starting in 2013 convincingly argue against genocide characterization. In particular, there is no similarity with the Holocaust. The UN itself has not recognized “Armenian genocide.”

H.Res.296 does not contain a single word as to the legal justification or foundation for “Armenian genocide,” because there exists none.

Every accusatory remark contained in the resolution, e.g., the ridiculous claim of 1.5 million Armenians deaths due to Relocation, the alleged Hitler document containing the fake “Armenian commentary” that was not even accepted as evidence at the Nuremberg Trials, the ramblings of the utterly racist, Turk- and Muslim-hater Ambassador Henry Morgenthau, who called Turks “primitive,” possessing “poisonous blood,” can be rebuked one by one.

The resolution does not say a word about Amb. Morgenthau’s successor Admiral Marc L. Bristol, who visited the war-torn region and refuted the Near East Relief reports reaching the United States. He remarked that “reports that Turks had massacred thousands of Armenians are repeated so many times, it makes my blood boil.”

Nor does the resolution say anything about, and express any regret for, the Armenian terror acts between 1973 and 1987 that resulted in the massacre of at least 70 people including 31 Turkish diplomats, some of the attacks taking place on American soil.

But perhaps most importantly, as per the 1948 UN Convention on Genocide (Article VI), the only entity that has the authority to pass judgment on, and determine an act to be a genocide, is a competent tribunal that has such jurisdiction. All genocides officially recognized by the United Nations, e.g., the Srebrenica and Cambodian genocides, have had the determination by such tribunal. Individuals, governments and parliaments do not have the authority to judge genocide. This is what the Convention, to which the U.S. is a signatory, says.

By recognizing “Armenian genocide,” the House, being a legislative body, regretfully usurped the power of a court or tribunal. The legislators yielded to and paid their dues to the Armenian lobby.

I will not burden you with details in this letter. Should you wish to have more information, please let me know, and I will be glad to assist.

And my apologies to some of you for engaging you at a time when you are dealing with an impeachment process.

Thank you, and sincerely,

Ferruh Demirmen, Ph.D, Chairman, Advisory Board Special Issues & Advisor To President.

Turkish Forum/World Turkish Alliance

November 15, 2019
Turkey and the West: A Gathering Storm?

Nov 7, 2019 | 23:02 GMT

The strategies pursued by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may have alienated some of the country’s traditional allies, but they have boosted his nationalist credentials at home.

(ATTILA KISBENEDEK/AFP via Getty Images)

Turkey, straddling a strategic geographic nexus between Europe and Asia, is the focus of conversation in this episode of the Stratfor podcast. Domestic economic and political challenges are pulling at the rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Meanwhile, relations between Turkey and the United States, a key NATO ally, are at an ebb, and after Ankara launched an offensive into northeastern Syria, the U.S. Congress has called for sanctions. In the meantime, Turkey’s relationship with the European Union, which Ankara ostensibly aspires to join, appears now to be fraying at the edges. All of this raises the question: Will Turkey now turn to Russia?

Stratfor’s Emily Hawthorne speaks with Sinan Ciddi, assistant professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, the director of the Institute of Turkish Studies and a frequent contributor to Stratfor Worldview, about Turkey’s current situation and its political future.

November 12, 2019
S-400 Delivery To Turkey May Lead To Secret Technologies Leaking

Trump to confront Turkey about buying Russian defense system /Russian Media Outlet Versia.ru: Experts Fear That The S-400 Delivery To Turkey May Lead To Secret Technologies Leaking

Posted by: “pinar.enis” <pinar.enis@gmail.com>

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By Deb Riechmann | AP

November 10, 2019 at 9:14 p.m. EST

NEW YORK — President Donald Trump will confront Turkey’s leader about his decision to buy a Russian air defense system when they meet this week at the White House amid strained relations between the two NATO allies.

Trump’s national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, said Sunday that the United States is still “very upset” by the move to purchase the Russian S-400 system. The U.S. says the system is not compatible with NATO forces and could compromise the F-35 fighter jet program and aid Russian intelligence. The Trump administration removed Turkey from the F-35 program in July.

O’Brien told CBS’ ”Face the Nation” that if Turkey doesn’t get rid of the Russian system, Turkey will likely face U.S. sanctions backed by a bipartisan majority in Congress.

Trump is scheduled to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday. Trump and Erdogan plan a joint news conference Wednesday afternoon.

“There’s no place in NATO for the S-400,” O’Brien said. “There’s no place in NATO for significant Russian military purchases. That’s a message that the president will deliver to him very clearly when he’s here in Washington.”

O’Brien said, however, that the U.S. will do everything it can to keep Turkey in NATO.

Turkey has been roundly criticized for its incursion into northern Syria to attack Kurdish forces that were fighting with the U.S. against Islamic State militants. Trump has been denounced for removing U.S. forces from the area before the incursion, but O’Brien said the administration did not pave the way for Erdogan’s offensive into Syria.

Copyright 2019 The Associated Press.

The following news was reported last week. Is Turkey trying to pressure Russia for greater technology transfer and joint production as regards the S-400’s (see the last article from MEMRI below); or is Turkey laying the groundwork for an agreement with the U.S. by perhaps cancelling delivery of the second half of the S-400’s on technical grounds?:

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NOVEMBER 4, 2019 / 4:07 AM / 7 DAYS AGO

Turkey says delivery of second Russian S-400 batch may be delayed

ANKARA (Reuters) – Delivery of a second batch of Russian S-400 missile defense systems to Turkey may be delayed beyond a planned 2020 timeline by talks on technology sharing and joint production, the head of Turkey’s Defence Industry Directorate said on Monday.

NATO allies Turkey and the United States have been at loggerheads over the purchase of the S-400 system, which Washington says is not compatible with NATO defenses and poses a threat to its Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets.

Despite Washington’s warnings and threats of U.S. sanctions, Turkey started taking delivery of the first S-400 batch in July. In response, Washington has removed Turkey from the F-35 program, in which Ankara was a manufacturer and buyer.

Washington still hopes to persuade its ally to “walk away” from the Russian systems.

“We are planning a timeline for next year. As opposed to the first (batch), there is joint production and technology transfer here. It is beyond the ‘let’s buy it quickly and install it’ of the first system,” Ismail Demir told broadcaster NTV.

“The joint production concept may move the timeline. We have some sensitivities regarding some of the production being here. Technical work continues,” he said.

Despite the threat of U.S. sanctions over Ankara’s move to buy the Russian systems, Turkey has indicated it could procure Russian fighter jets if the United States refuses to deliver the F-35 jets it has purchased.

On Monday, Demir said Russia had offered to sell Turkey its Su-35 fighter jets.

“There is an offer and we are evaluating it. There cannot be such a thing as ‘we’re buying tomorrow’ in such matters. The offer’s financial and strategic aspects will be examined, there cannot be an immediate decision,” Demir said.

“It would not be right to say ‘the F-35 era is closed, the Su-35 era is beginning’, but we will evaluate the offer,” he said.

Ties between Ankara and Washington have been strained over issues such as Turkey’s offensive into northeastern Syria. Turkey has also been outraged over a decision by the U.S. House of Representatives to support sanctions on Ankara over its incursion and to recognize the mass killings of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire as “genocide”.

Despite this, Demir said Turkey was still open to offers by the United States to buy U.S. Patriot missile defense systems as long as they met Ankara’s conditions.

Reporting by Tuvan Gumrukcu and Can Sezer; Editing by Ece Toksabay and Giles Elgood

July 29, 2019

Special Dispatch

No.

8198

Russian Media Outlet Versia.ru: Experts Fear That The S-400 Delivery To Turkey May Lead To Secret Technologies Leaking; Recent History Shows That Turkey Can Suddenly Turn From Friend To Foe

The Russian media outlet Versia.ru reported that Russian experts fear that the S-400 delivery to Turkey may cause classified Russian military technologies to leak to the West. Versia.ru emphasized that Russian manufacturers were trying to safeguard the technologies by withholding documentation on production data in the transfers to Turkey, and therefore Ankara will be unable to gain access to the S-400 systems. Furthermore, the agreement stipulates that Turkey may not disassemble or modify the complexes.

After noting these assurances, Versia.ru warned that recent history proves that Turkey can suddenly turn from Russia’s friend to Russia’s foe. Anatoly Tsyganok, Head of the Center for Military Forecasting, told Versia.ru that following the S-400 deliveries to Turkey, a NATO country, a risk would arise that the US could explore Russia’s main air defense missile systems, and this could jeopardize Russia’s defense capability.

Below are excerpts from the article:[1]

The Negotiations For The Sale Of The S-400 Took Several Years, Why Are The S-400 Being Now Transferred So Quickly To Turkey By Airplanes?

“Russia started the delivery of the Triumph S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems to Turkey. For Moscow, this is a significant event and a symbol of diplomatic victory: it was possible to drive a wedge between Ankara and Washington, the two NATO countries! However, experts are finding numerous puzzling elements in the ‘Triumph’ systems delivery to Turkey.

“The sale negotiations for the S-400 took several years, why are they now being transferred so hurriedly to the Turks by airplanes? There is silence on the systems’ use conditions, although they may directly threaten Russian aircraft in Syria. And most importantly, will Russian military-technical secrets get away?

“Turkey’s sale contract for the Russian anti-aircraft missile systems S-400 was signed at the end of 2017, the price was $ 2.5 billion. First, it was about the delivery of two divisions, which are presumably to be maintained by Turkish personnel. Now it is reported that Ankara will receive four divisional sets. Currently, the Turkish military is choosing the future location of the S -400, the information is kept secret, so it is still completely unclear whether, for example, Russian aircraft in Syria will be in the sights of the Turkish S-400.

“The United States actively opposed this deal, as it counted on supplying Ankara with its Patriot air defense system. The Americans argued that the S-400 did not comply with NATO standards, and also noted the inadmissibility of military-technical cooperation with a country militarily opposed to the alliance. Nevertheless, the Turks, despite all the pressure from Washington, were able to have their way. Experts assumed that in order to achieve this Moscow had to make some very advantageous offers to the wily Erdogan. Apparently, it was feared that Erdogan might change his mind, and that explains the speed with which the S-400 appeared in Turkey. The complexes were delivered to the buyer by airplanes, although it was initially assumed that heavy equipment would be transported by sea, which is much cheaper. However, the most expensive option was chosen: they decided to use the An-124 ‘Ruslan’ aircraft for transportation – the only aircraft in the world capable of carrying such bulky and oversized cargo.

“Was it worth to hurry? In general, there was a reason for this.

“One can still remember the story of S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems’ shipment to Cyprus in 1996. They were shipped by large amphibious vessels. However, while they were in the sea, the United States, the United Kingdom and Turkey, which has territorial disputes with Cyprus, opposed the fulfillment of the contract. As a result, the deal fell through.

“Another unpleasant story happened with the recent delivery of Russian S-400 to China. In January 2018, a ship with components of this system, which left the Leningrad region, got caught in a storm in the La Manche region; as a result a part of the equipment was seriously damaged. To fulfill the terms of the contract, the rockets had to be built from scratch again. It seems that Moscow decided to not take risks.

The S-400 May Likely End Up In US Hands

“This way, Moscow was able to achieve what it wanted – a sale of S-400 to Turkey. However, a number of experts show concern, calling this contract a most dubious agreement in terms of preserving secrets. Obviously, Turkey seeks to obtain not only the weapons systems themselves, but also the technologies used in their creation. This is important because the Turkish military-industrial complex independently develops modern weapons and Ankara wants to minimize its dependence on arms purchases at foreign markets.

“Let’s recall that last year, when the Turkish authorities made a deposit for the S-400 delivery, they unexpectedly put forward a number of additional conditions. The Turks began insisting that secret technologies be transferred to them and on the joint production of rocket systems. Officially, it is reported that the Russian side refused to fulfill this request and access to the internal systems of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile complexes was excluded [from the contract]. Well, there is no choice but to believe these statements.

“Now Russian manufacturers say that no documentation on production data is transferred to Turkey, and therefore Ankara, and especially the Americans, will not be able to gain access to the S-400 systems. Upon an attempt to bypass the password and hack the system, the computer will automatically destroy all the data embedded in it. According to the agreement, Turkey does not have the right to disassemble the complexes and modify them. According to the manufacturers, this ensures that the Russian S-400 systems are reliably protected from any copying infringements. Armament maintenance will also be handled exclusively by Russian specialists, who will be able to control the integrity of the manufacturing seals.

“Additionally, each piece of machinery has special sensors that transmit a signal to a satellite military communication channel if someone makes an unauthorized dissection. And if an attempt is made to place the complex in a special hangar that obstructs signal transmission, all S-400 equipment will be instantly blocked. Also, for reliability, air defense missile systems are equipped with ‘friend-foe’ recognition systems.

“All this surely inspires hope. However, even recent history shows that Turkey can suddenly turn from Moscow’s friend to its enemy. And there is no guarantee that after the next conflict the Turkish authorities will not renounce all the agreements. In this case, it is likely that S-400 may end up in the hands of Americans, who are far better equipped to hack computer locks. As a result, NATO can get access to Russian secret technologies and learn how to counter them.

[…]

Anatoly Tsyganok (Source: Antimaidan.ru)

“Anatoly Tsyganok, Head of the Center for Military Forecasting:

“‘The S-400 sale to Turkey is an opportunity to make a profit and a unique advertisement for Russian weapons, a demonstration that even NATO countries are buying it. But there is a downside: it is obvious that leaks of information about these systems are quite possible. After the S-400 is delivered to Turkey, the risk arises that American technical personnel can access these complexes. That is, the US will be able to explore our main air defense missile systems, and this, in theory, could harm Russia’s defense capability. Although systems that have been exported have significantly lower properties, NATO countries will nevertheless receive general information about technologies. They will also have the opportunity to work out tactics against these systems during joint exercises. In addition, you need to understand that the S-400, if stationed on the border with Syria, could theoretically pose a danger to Russian military aviation.’”

November 11, 2019
Turkey and the West: A Gathering Storm?

Nov 7, 2019 | 23:02 GMT

The strategies pursued by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may have alienated some of the country’s traditional allies, but they have boosted his nationalist credentials at home.

(ATTILA KISBENEDEK/AFP via Getty Images)

Turkey, straddling a strategic geographic nexus between Europe and Asia, is the focus of conversation in this episode of the Stratfor podcast. Domestic economic and political challenges are pulling at the rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Meanwhile, relations between Turkey and the United States, a key NATO ally, are at an ebb, and after Ankara launched an offensive into northeastern Syria, the U.S. Congress has called for sanctions. In the meantime, Turkey’s relationship with the European Union, which Ankara ostensibly aspires to join, appears now to be fraying at the edges. All of this raises the question: Will Turkey now turn to Russia?

Stratfor’s Emily Hawthorne speaks with Sinan Ciddi, assistant professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, the director of the Institute of Turkish Studies and a frequent contributor to Stratfor Worldview, about Turkey’s current situation and its political future.

November 9, 2019