Category: News

  • What does Turkey’s 2017 growth say?

    What does Turkey’s 2017 growth say?

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    https://www.ahaber.com.tr

    CEMIL ERTEM

    The Turkish economy grew 7.3 percent in the last quarter of 2017, and 7.4 percent the entire year. This growth is a sign of a fundamental change for Turkey in terms of both its composition and the situation of the world.

    The danger of recession in Turkey was even mentioned at the beginning of 2017. We also saw the signs of recession in some industries. Those that constituted net foreign exchange such as exports and tourism were signaling a slowdown. Many foreign institutions said that the trend of a slowdown that started following the coup attempt in the second half of 2016 would continue in 2017, as well. For instance, a highly reputed global research company said the following in its report on Turkey’s economy: “After the July 15 coup attempt, [the] slowdown trend in Turkey’s economy will continue to deepen. We anticipate that the Turkish economy will grow by 2.6 percent in 2016 and by a similar rate in 2017.” Such assessments were generally accepted both at home and abroad, and the best forecast for the Turkish economy at the end of 2016 was that it would be good if the economy did not enter a stagflation process in which stagnation and inflation go together.

    Of course, there is no need to say that these assessments would dampen investments to the extent that they disrupted forecasts. So much so that, even those at the heart of the economy considered growth of 4 percent to 5 percent, let alone 7 percent, to be a distant dream.

    How did this picture begin to change rapidly as of the end of the first quarter of 2017? The Credit Guarantee Fund (CGF) and many financial incentives began to take effect in the first half of 2017 and the period in which exports and industry contributed positively to the economy started around the end of the first quarter of 2017. Its effects began to be felt immediately, even without any planned delay. Perhaps we can explain this by the potential and dynamics of the Turkish economy that some never know or never want to know, which is a topic for another discussion.

    Here, the inflationary effect of both the CGF and financial incentives were criticized in the whole process. Let me just say that, until March 2017, when CGF loans started, we see that inflation paradoxically accelerated in a recession-driven process in both producer and consumer sides.

    In March 2017, the Producer Price Index (PPI) peaked at 16 percent. Due to stock and the financing cost burden on industrial enterprises and the enterprises’ failure to make distribution investments, there was deterioration stemming from rapid productivity loss. This led to a loss of competition in exchange rates in exports and to a rise of market losses. In these conditions, manufacturers could not reach financing through traditional methods such as mortgages and the like, and the overall economy rapidly entered a spiral of stagnation and producer inflation.

    At this point, the CGF first stopped this process and then reversed it. The import weight seen in growth in 2016 also started to be quickly replaced by exports. We started to see its first impacts in the second quarter growth of 2017. Here, the contribution of sectoral growth came to reach the desired level. In this period, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) also started to rise and the contribution of public-private sector investments reached 9.5 percent. This rate also indicated that bank resources were allocated to the right places. Meanwhile, there was a rapid recovery in the banking system balance sheet. Thanks to the CGF, banks rapidly boosted their asset quality and it became easier for them to find resources from abroad on more appropriate terms and with better rates. In this period, some circles started to claim that while deposit inflows were weak, the CGF caused rapid resource outflow from the banking system, suggesting that since there is a resource problem, it should stop a bit.

    Actually, the opposite was true. Some foreign banks transferred some European resources to Turkey just for the sake of the CGF.

    All these statements were driven by the innovative growth tools implemented in 2017 that started to spoil the game of those who voiced opposition to them. After all, the only hope of those who failed in the July 2016 coup attempt was the expectation that the economy would not be able to recover afterward.

    Those who saw that the order they built would not always continue in the same way got into a big flap after the 2017 achievements.

    They started to repeat their failed and falsified thesis that there had been growth over 5 percent and the current account deficit and inflation have increased. This growth is not possible at all with such low savings, and if it is, it will hit the wall, so hike interest rates. As I said in a previous piece, the issue of savings is a paradigm debate along with interest and inflation issues. In an open economy in which the floating exchange rate regime is practiced, the exchange rate level is indisputable and, consequently, savings are not seen as an internal variable. Moreover, in an open economy and in a period when the global economy builds itself on technology efficiency, saving is a direct business of capital, not of households. And it is a phenomenon the government should expect from capital. In this respect, recent statements and steps that associate savings with technology efficiency and research and development investments are quite proper.

    Consequently, the growth in 2017 was a historic achievement that shows the country’s potential when old clichés are left aside. It is also the beginning of a paradigm shift.

  • How would you feel about your allies…

    How would you feel about your allies…

    NEDEN ZEYTİN DALI? NEDEN AFRİN VE SONRASI?

    TRT World’ü bu muhteşem anlatım için tebrik ederim. Türkiyenin haklılığını çok güzel özetlemiş… (Arkadaşlık listesinde yabancı olanlar paylaşıp bilgilendirsin…)

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  • Trump: The Un-American President

    Trump: The Un-American President

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    President Trump with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada at the White House last year.CreditDoug Mills The New York Times

    “I said, ‘Wrong, Justin, you do.’ I didn’t even know … I had no idea. I just said, ‘You’re wrong.’ ”

    That, as reported by The Washington Post, was Donald Trump boasting during a private fund-raising dinner about lying to Justin Trudeau, prime minister of Canada, our northern neighbor and closest ally.

    When caught in the lie, Trump did what Trump does: Repeats the lie, louder, stronger, and more stridently.

    After the lie was reported, Trump tweeted:

    “We do have a Trade Deficit with Canada, as we do with almost all countries (some of them massive). P.M. Justin Trudeau of Canada, a very good guy, doesn’t like saying that Canada has a Surplus vs. the U.S. (negotiating), but they do … they almost all do … and that’s how I know!”

    By the way, here is PolitiFact’s fact-check of Trump’s claim:

    “In 2017, the United States had a $23.2 billion deficit with Canada in goods. In other words, the United States in 2017 bought more goods from Canada than Canada bought from the United States.

    However, the United States had a $25.9 billion surplus with Canada in services — and that was enough to overcome that deficit and turn the overall balance of trade into a $2.8 billion surplus for the United States in 2017. The same pattern occurred in 2016.”

    It bears repeating that Donald Trump is a pathological, unrepentant liar. We must state this truth for as long as he revels in untruth.

    But there is something about the nakedness of this confession, the brazenness of it, the cavalier-ness, that still has the ability to shock.

    First, why does the president of the United States not know whether we have a trade surplus or deficit with Canada? A pillar of his campaign was to renegotiate Nafta. Surely he understood the basic fundamentals before making wild accusations and unrealistic promises, right? Wrong.

    Trump’s recalling of the story suggested that he was somehow overpowering and outmaneuvering Trudeau, free to best him because he was unencumbered by an allegiance to the truth.

    But in fact, the story makes Trump look small and ignorant and unprincipled.

    Lying to your friends and then bragging behind their backs that you lied to them is the quickest way to poison a friendship.

    This is lying for sport, for the thrill of it, because you can and feel that there is no penalty for it.

    Our relationship with our allies around the world depends on some degree of mutual trust and respect. What must they think when they watch Trump demolish those diplomatic tenets? How are international agreements supposed to be negotiated when one party is a proven, prolific liar?

    We have no idea just how damaged the American brand has become under Trump.

    As a June 2017 Pew Research Center report pointed out:

    “Although he has only been in office a few months, Donald Trump’s presidency has had a major impact on how the world sees the United States. Trump and many of his key policies are broadly unpopular around the globe, and ratings for the U.S. have declined steeply in many nations.”

    The report continued:

    “According to a new Pew Research Center survey spanning 37 nations, a median of just 22 percent has confidence in Trump to do the right thing when it comes to international affairs. This stands in contrast to the final years of Barack Obama’s presidency, when a median of 64 percent expressed confidence in Trump’s predecessor to direct America’s role in the world.”

    Surely, some may think this lie to Trudeau is a small matter, particularly in light of the waves of Trump chaos and scandal that wash over us several times a day.

    One of Trump’s most lasting legacies will likely be the damage he’s doing to the fundamental idea that truth matters.

    The world is watching, and that includes the world’s children, some of whom will register him as their first American president. How will they regard this absence from world leadership that Trump is enacting? Will they grow up repulsed by it? Most hopefully will. But there will undoubtedly be others that draw a different lesson from the Trump philosophy: Create your own reality; populate it with “facts” of your own creation; use lying as a tactic; remember that strict adherence to truth is a moral barrier and morality is a burden.

    This is what this man is projecting: A debauched character and a hollow place where integrity should exist.

    Rather than preserving the nobility of the presidency, he is debasing it. Rather than burnishing the image of America, he is tarnishing it.

    It is an awful fact that the most powerful man in America may also represent the worst of America. In a way, Trump is the un-American president.

    I invite you to join me on Facebook and follow me on Twitter (@CharlesMBlow), or email me at chblow@nytimes.com.

    Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter (@NYTopinion), and sign up for the Opinion Today newsletter.

    A version of this article appears in print on , on Page A21 of the New York edition with the headline: Trump: The Un-American President.

    Charles M. Blow

  • Donald Trump: Man at War

    Donald Trump: Man at War

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    “@realDonaldTrump is now set for war on 3 fronts: political vs Bob Mueller, economic vs China/others on trade, and actual vs. Iran and/or North Korea. This is the most perilous moment in modern American history — and it has been largely brought about by ourselves, not by events.”

    I agree fully with this assessment.

    Some have viewed President Trump’s recent moves as a sign of rising self-assuredness in the man.

    I see quite the opposite. I see a man growing increasingly irascible as his sense of desperation surges. The world is closing in on Trump and he is in an existential fight for his own survival.

    This is precisely what makes him so dangerous: As the personal threat to him grows, his threat to the country grows. The power of the American presidency is an awesome power, and Trump will harness and deploy it all as guard and guarantee against his own demise.

    Add to his sense of panic his compounding emotional and psychological liabilities: He has an inflated view of his own skills, talents and expertise. He knows only a fraction of what he has convinced himself that he knows.

    He prefers casual conversation to literary examination, opting to listen rather than to read, which is both a sign of a severely compromised and restrained intellect and an astounding arrogance about one’s information absorption.

    While pundits mull whether the cloud of chaos Trump keeps swirling around him is simple incompetence or strategic plotting, The New York Times reported Friday:

    “Aides said there was no grand strategy to the president’s actions, and that he got up each morning this week not knowing what he would do. Much as he did as a New York businessman at Trump Tower, Mr. Trump watched television, reacted to what he saw on television and then reacted to the reaction.”

    This is all gut and instinct. This is all reactionary emoting by a man of poor character, one addicted to affirmation. He desperately needs to be the king-of-every-hill he sees in the mirror: He was the ladies’ man, businessman, smartest man, toughest man. There was nothing beyond him, and he didn’t have to follow the rules, he only had to follow his instincts.

    But Washington politics is a long way from New York City real estate. Wrangling Senate votes is a long way from prowling for playmates. This is the big leagues and this little man is feeling the stress and strain of

    Even if he can’t be good, he at least wants to look good, to fake it to try to make it. This may be one of the reasons he is inviting so many television personalities into his cabinet.

    This is all just window dressing. Trump is truly in the cross hairs, and he knows it.

    Just as he is going to war on three fronts, he is being attacked on three fronts.

    The Robert Mueller investigation is bearing down on him as an inevitable in-person interview with Trump — and all of its potential pitfalls — draws nearer. I have resisted predictions about what could come of the investigation because it would be little more than conjecture. Only Mueller knows what Mueller knows. But, it appears to me that the president is surely acting like a guilty man, or at least someone trying to shield another who is guilty.

    Then there is the porn star, the playmate and the reality star: Three women currently in litigation over sexual contact with Trump — two admittedly consensual and one allegedly not. The most tantalizing and threatening of the three is the case with porn star Stephanie Clifford, whose stage name is Stormy Daniels. Daniels and her attorney, as well as language in the nondisclosure agreement that she signed, suggests that she has some compromising written and photographic evidence about her encounters with Trump.

    Furthermore, in Daniels, Trump seems to have met his match as an internet troll. When someone on Twitter asked Clifford, “What snack foods do you recommend for watching you on “60 Minutes” tomorrow night? Nachos and wings feel so January, you know?” Clifford responded: “Tacos and mini corndogs just seems so right … and yet, so wrong. I believe the more traditional choice is popcorn, however.”

    Yes, the subtext of that tweet is exactly what you think it is. Note to self: Never pick a fight with a porn star.

    And now with the massive March For Our Lives, we see that going into the midterms not only are black voters and suburban white women energized against this president and his congressional protectors, so are young people who feel betrayed, particularly on the issue of gun control, by politicians beholden to the N.R.A.

    Trump talked big about standing up to the N.R.A., and then summarily caved to the N.R.A.

    If this surge of enthusiasm leads to Democrats flipping the House — and the long shot, the Senate — and something comes of the Mueller investigation or the women’s lawsuits, you can rest assured that impeachment proceedings will be in the offing. This is why Trump is going to war.

    I invite you to join me on Facebook and follow me on Twitter (@CharlesMBlow), or email me at chblow@nytimes.com.

    Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter (@NYTopinion), and sign up for the Opinion Today newsletter.

    A version of this article appears in print on , on Page A22 of the New York edition with the headline: Donald Trump: Man at War. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper |

    Charles M. Blow
    Politics, public opinion and social justice.

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    Character Should Still Matter

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    Trump: The Un-American President

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    Melania Knew

  • Did Hitler model his Holocaust on the Armenian Genocide?

    Did Hitler model his Holocaust on the Armenian Genocide?

    The Holocaust and 1915 Armenian events are two different things and it dilutes the facts and confuses people to mix them together. Let me put it that way, if Hitler indeed had taken the Ottoman-Armenian events as a model, he would leave all Jews in Berlin comfortably in peace.

    1915 events broke out because armed Armenian groups in north-east were fighting for independence, and the Ottomans, afraid they cannot cope with them, as they were backed by Russia, looked for the solution in deporting them, along with the rest of Armenian civilians living in that region, ie around northeast border with Russia, to south. The purpose was to keep that land and prevent a disintegration of Ottoman Empire (or whatever left of it). I am not trying to show it as a casual thing, the results were tragic, but this is the full picture.

    Armenians in the west (including the capital, Constantinople) and the Arabic states of Ottoman empire were not deported or murdered. As an example, the population of Armenians in Istanbul at that time was 164,000, in Izmit 62,000.. Some of the most Armenian populated cities were in west. You can find my source and other details here:

    How many Armenians were living in the Ottoman Empire?

    Because you compared the Armenian events with the holocaust.. As a simple person, one thing I know about the holocaust is that the nazis hunted down one by one every jewish citizen in the countries they invaded, from Greece to Scandinavian countries, directly or indirectly (thru collaboration with local governments) and sent them to camps with the ultimate goal, to exterminate the jewish race.

    If the Ottomans wished to wipe out the all Armenian race, like Hitler did for Jews, they would probably start from those in front of their noses. But none in west were touched. (Armenians in west, especially in the capital, were the wealthiest of their people.) This is, as I said earlier, like Nazis forgot or ignored about the Jews in Berlin or Munich..

    If you are skeptical, here are some other references:

    – “The majority of the Armenians in Constantinople, the capital city, were spared deportation.” Frequently Asked Questions about the Armenian Genocide

    -2000 were deported or arrested from Constantinople according to some sources Deportation of Armenian intellectuals on 24 April 1915

    The two events, thus, historically are very different, and no need to merge them forcefully to short-cut to a conclusion. The Turkish and Armenian people should be the sides who better most sensitive about details as it is our history. Understanding them can help us shape the future in a better way.

  • Independence for Kurdistan

    Independence for Kurdistan