Category: Business

  • Greedy bankers to face prison as Chancellor prepares new law to target reckless bosses who take risks with the economy

    Greedy bankers to face prison as Chancellor prepares new law to target reckless bosses who take risks with the economy

    New criminal offence of ‘corporate negligence’ could punish financiers

    By GLEN OWEN

    Sir Fred Goodwin
    Widespread fury: Sir Fred Goodwin, who presided over the collapse of RBS, escaped serious censure for his actions

    Growing public outrage over the severe damage caused by the banking crisis has prompted the Chancellor to prepare a new criminal offence of ‘corporate negligence’ to punish reckless financiers.

    The move comes just days before the annual City bonus season, which is expected to bring another round of bumper payouts despite the sluggish UK economy and families suffering a historic squeeze on household finances.

    All three main parties are now competing to offer the most hardline policies on tackling ‘fat cats’, after their internal polling revealed the scale of voters’ fury at the level of executive pay.

    Under the plan, being worked on behind the scenes at the Treasury, legislation would be introduced to prosecute any boss of a ‘systemically important financial institution’ whose actions had a significantly damaging effect on the wider economy.

    The plan would mean that the chief executives of the big five banks: Bob Diamond at Barclays, Antonio Horta-Osorio at Lloyds TSB, Stuart Gulliver at HSBC, Ana Botin at Santander and Sir Fred’s successor at RBS, Stephen Hester – would all be at risk of  imprisonment if they ‘crashed’ the banks and damaged the economy through their actions.

    The move follows widespread fury that Sir Fred, who presided over the collapse of RBS, escaped serious censure for his actions and even walked away with a multi-million-pound pension deal.

    Last night a Treasury source confirmed that new legislation was being worked on, but warned that a number of legal difficulties first had to be ironed out.

    The source said that the Bank of England and City regulator the Financial Services Authority (FSA) were being consulted to ensure that directors would face ‘appropriate penalties’ if they behaved improperly.

    The plan will be set out in greater detail later this week by Tory MP Matthew Hancock, Mr Osborne’s former chief of staff, who has regular discussions with the Chancellor. Mr Hancock will make a keynote speech in which he will attack current City regulations for ‘rewarding failure’ by incompetent bankers.

    And he will say that reckless  bankers should be jailed, in the same way as reckless doctors and drivers can already be prosecuted.

    He will tell the Policy Exchange think-tank: ‘Those who put our big banks at risk . . . should be held to account, just as with those who destroy property or endanger the health of their fellow citizens.

    ‘Sir Fred Goodwin broke one of Britain’s biggest banks, yet walked away with a huge pension. I want to see a law which makes it possible to prosecute executives for serious financial recklessness.

    ‘I would hope such legislation would never have to be used. But the shadow of prosecution will concentrate minds of those entrusted with institutions of vital national importance. Our goal must be to make executives think harder about the consequences of their actions, and change the culture of finance so it is safer for us all.’

    An FSA report into the RBS fiasco, published last month, placed the blame for the bank’s ill-judged acquisitions – which left it with unsustainable debts – on Sir Fred’s ‘robust’ management style, but did not find grounds for disciplinary action against him under existing rules.

    The Government’s £45.5 billion rescue in 2008 left the State owning more than 80 per cent of the bank.  The taxpayer is currently nursing a £25 billion loss on the deal while Sir Fred, nicknamed ‘Fred the Shred’, enjoys a £342,500-a-year persion.

    FSA chairman Adair Turner said in the report: ‘The fact that no individual has been found legally responsible for the failure begs the question: if action cannot be taken under existing rules, should not the rules be changed for the future?’

    The FSA says that ‘systemically important’ businesses are those whose collapse would ‘impair the provision of credit and financial services to the market with significant negative consequences for the real economy’.  Although the big five banks would be the main target of the legislation, the definition means large investment banks or insurance companies could also be caught.

    The legal test would be whether a ‘reasonable man’ would conclude that executives were negligent or grossly negligent in their conduct. Mr Hancock said: ‘The aim would be to strengthen existing corporate negligence provisions to deal directly with negligence at the helm of a systemically important institution.’

    Angela Knight, chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, said: ‘We would need to carefully consider an issue as complex as this before making any comment. But generally, decisions about executive pay and City regulation should not be made on the hoof, and people should not be prosecuted for  making a bad judgment.’

    Jonathan Pickworth, a corporate law expert at law firm Dechert, said: ‘The first problem would be defining which institutions would be  covered. If you are talking about individual criminal liability, you need to establish guilt beyond reasonable doubt. And when you are talking about the possible deprivation of someone’s liberty, that would be a pretty drastic step to take.’

    The battle to appear tough on executive pay intensified this weekend, with all three main party leaders on the attack on ‘irresponsible capitalism’. David Cameron is today expected to step up his rhetoric against high pay, declaring that he is determined to tackle ‘rewards at the top’ that are not commensurate with success. But behind the scenes he is at loggerheads with Lib Dem Business Secretary Vince Cable’s support for a plan to give employees a seat on committees which decide executives’ pay.

    Labour also attempted to seize the initiative yesterday, with Shadow business spokesman Chuka Umunna calling for ‘responsible capitalism’ and Labour leader Ed Miliband  saying David Cameron could either curb excessive boardroom salaries or ‘drag his feet, wring his hands and fiddle at the margins like he has before on these issues’.

    www.dailymail.co.uk, 7 January 2012

  • Reasons Galore for Turkey’s EU Membership

    Reasons Galore for Turkey’s EU Membership

    By Markus Jaeger*
    IDN-InDepth NewsViewpoint

    Jaeger MarkusTurkey’s economic and demographic weight relative to the 27-nation European Union (EU-27) will increase over the coming decades. However, relatively rapid population ageing, a slowdown in the growth of the working-age population and declining outward migration will limit the “demographic dividend” the EU will reap in case of Turkish membership. While there are many reasons – political, economic and strategic – that make Turkish EU membership desirable for both the EU and Turkey, it would do little to alter the fundamental economic and demographic dynamics of the EU. NEW YORK (IDN) – In the wake of the “great risk shift”, which saw risk migrate from the emerging to the advanced economies, and given the continued solid medium-term growth outlook in the emerging markets, one finds an understandable degree of enthusiasm in those countries. Turkey is a case in point, having made economic strides over the past decade.

    Following the 2000-2001 crisis, Turkey implemented far-reaching economic reforms (for example floating exchange rate, adoption of an inflation targeting regime and central bank independence, reform of the fiscal policy framework and banking sector reform and recapitalisation). The reforms have significantly improved economic fundamentals and raised economic growth.

    Average ten-year real GDP (gross domestic product) growth is running at 4% compared with only 2% in the late eighties and late nineties. Net public debt fell from 70% of GDP (actually higher, pre-GDP revision) to a safe 30% and FX (foreign exchange) reserve accumulation policy has helped lower net FX liabilities. This has resulted in a decline in interest rates and a sizeable increase in bank lending to the private sector, which doubled from 20% to 40% of GDP over the past decade.

    Reasons for accelerated growth include a bounce-back following crises in 2000-2001, a “pay-off” from 1980 reforms (for example trade opening, domestic economic liberalisation), a proven commitment to economic stability and structural reforms under a one-party government during the 2000s. It is difficult to disentangle the relative importance of these factors. It remains to be seen to what extent policy discipline will last, should a more fractious multi-party coalition government emerge at some point in the future, absent an external anchor (for example IMF, EU accession negotiations).

    Weaknesses

    Despite all the impressive progress, significant structural weaknesses persist. First, Turkey has become only moderately more open in terms of trade. Exports of goods and services rose from an average of 19% of GDP in the 1990s to 23% of GDP in the 2000s. Total trade as a percentage of GDP rose from 41% of GDP in the 1990s to 49% of GDP in the 2000s.

    Second, Turkey’s export mix has not changed dramatically, either. The share of manufacturing products in total exports has remained unchanged at 90%. High-tech exports have stagnated, accounting for less than 2% of manufacturing exports, half the share of the late 1990s and the same level as in 1989 (and considerably smaller than in other major emerging markets).

    Last but not least, low savings and investment rates severely limit Turkey’s growth potential. Intriguingly, the savings rate actually declined from more than 20% of GDP in the 1990s to less than 17% of GDP in the 2000s, in spite of a major rise in public-sector savings. Not surprisingly, Turkey is running a very large current account deficit, making it highly dependent on external financing to sustain 4-5% annual real GDP growth.

    In spite of continued vulnerabilities and weaknesses, Turkey’s relative economic weight will continue to increase. Turkish GDP currently amounts to less than 5% of EU-27 GDP [in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms]. Turkish GDP per capita is 50% of the EU average, up from 40% and 30% one and two decades ago, respectively. Under reasonable assumptions, this share could reach 70% by 2030.

    This would translate into a Turkish GDP that would just about exceed 10% of total EU GDP. This would leave Turkey as the fourth-largest economy in the EU behind Germany, France and the UK, but likely slightly ahead of Italy.

    Naturally, the risks attached to the outlook for the “catch up” economies are greater than for the slowly growing advanced economies. Even at its peak in 2050-2060, Turkish GDP would, under current projections, not exceed 17% – smaller than Germany’s 22% today.

    Demographically, Turkey’s population of 73 million is equivalent to 15% of the EU population. While larger than France, Italy and the UK (60-65 million each), it is smaller than Germany (82 million). According to the latest UN projections, Turkey’s population will reach 90 million by 2050 (and gently decline thereafter).

    At its peak, Turkey’s population share would be equivalent to Germany’s today (17%). The EU is often thought to benefit from a “demographic dividend” in the event of Turkish EU membership. But this is unlikely to be the case. Turkey’s population of working age will increase by a mere 5 and 10 million over the next 10 and 20 years, respectively, peaking at 61 million in 2040.

    Effectively, the working-age population will remain unchanged after 2025. Net migration has dropped very dramatically over the past few decades from its peak period in 1960-1980 and is projected to fall to zero by 2025.

    This suggests that even if Turkish EU membership were to grant Turkish citizens complete intra-EU labour mobility, the net flow of workers to the EU-27 would be very limited, perhaps non-existent, and completely inadequate to offset the projected decline in the EU-27 working-age population of 10 million per decade.

    Turkey’s economic and, much less so, demographic weight relative to the EU will be growing over the coming decades. While there are many reasons – political, economic and strategic – that make Turkish EU membership desirable for both the EU and Turkey, it would do little to alter the fundamental economic and demographic dynamics of the EU – the “great risk shift” and Turkey’s buoyant medium-term growth prospects notwithstanding.

    *Dr. Markus Jaeger is a Director at Deutsche Bank Research in New York, USA. He is responsible for economic, financial, and political risk research, with a special focus on the larger emerging markets. This article appeared online on December 15, 2011 under ‘Talking Point’ in Deutsche Bank Research. [IDN-InDepthNews – January 7, 2012]

    2012 IDN-InDepthNews | Analysis That Matters

    Picture: The writer | Credit: Deutsche Bank

  • Time Warner, KKR, TPG Said to Be in Talks to Buy Calik Media

    Time Warner, KKR, TPG Said to Be in Talks to Buy Calik Media

    TPG Capital, KKR & Co LP (KKR) and Time Warner Inc. (TWX) are in talks to buy media assets from Turkey’s Calik Holding AS, which include Sabah newspaper and ATV television, four people familiar with the situation said.

    Calik Holding, the Istanbul-based group with interests in energy, construction, finance and telecommunications, hired Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) to advise on the sale, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are private.

    Calik Holding, with sales of $2 billion in 2010, paid the government $1.25 billion for Turkey’s second-biggest media group after winning loans from state-run banks and its Qatari partner in 2008. The company is managed by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s son-in-law, Berat Albayrak.

    Calik bought Sabah and ATV when the assets were put up for sale after they were seized by Turkish regulators from a previous owner. Calik was the only bidder in the auction for Sabah and ATV after RTL Group SA, Europe’s biggest broadcaster, had abandoned plans to submit a joint bid with two Turkish partners. Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. also pulled out.

    Gavin Davis, a spokesman for TPG at public relations agency Pelham Bell Pottinger, said TPG declined to comment. Serhat Albayrak, deputy chairman at Turkuvaz Media Group, Calik Holding’s unit that owns Sabah newspaper and ATV channels, didn’t reply to e-mailed questions from Bloomberg seeking comment. “KKR does not comment on market speculation,” Edward Simpkins, a spokesman for KKR at public relations company Finsbury Ltd. in London, said in an e-mailed statement. Time Warner’s chief in Turkey, Efe Onbilgin, didn’t respond to calls to his cell phone seeking comment.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Ercan Ersoy in Istanbul at eersoy@bloomberg.net

    To contact the editor responsible for this story: Benedikt Kammel at bkammel@bloomberg.net

    via Time Warner, KKR, TPG Said to Be in Talks to Buy Calik Media – Bloomberg.

  • Turkey may buy Bell 429 helicopters

    Turkey may buy Bell 429 helicopters

    Turkey may buy Bell 429 helicopters

    6a00d8341c2cc953ef016760092e73970b 320wiBell 429 7-22-2010 Bell Helicopter said Thursday that it has been selected by the Turkish National Police to enter final negotiations for a contract for 15 Bell 429 helicopters with an option for five additional aircraft.

    “This selection represents the culmination of the efforts of a dedicated team at Bell Helicopter in collaboration with our independent representative, Saran Group, Inc., located in Turkey,” said Larry Roberts, senior vice president for Bell Helicopter’s Commercial Business.

    “This is a significant win in the European market for Bell Helicopter. It reflects our commitment and investment in providing the right products for our customers as well as support, training and aftermarket in the region.”

    The 429 is Bell’s newest civil helicopter model, a light twin-engine model. It has been in production for a couple of years but has been a relatively slow seller due to a higher than promised price tag and less than promised performance.

    via Sky Talk: Turkey may buy Bell 429 helicopters.

  • Grand Bazaar’s gold merchants turn to Bloomberg

    Grand Bazaar’s gold merchants turn to Bloomberg

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    Demand for gold has risen steadily over the last decade Photo: REX

    By Katherine Rushton

    Around 2.5m ounces of the substance change hands in its labyrinthine alleyways each year, amounting to $29bn (£18.6bn) of business and giving the Grand Bazaar a clear lead as Turkey’s biggest gold market.

    But that centuries-old ritual is starting to change. The economic downturn has fuelled trading of the ‘safe haven” metal to such an extent that Istanbul’s gold merchants have started to invest in expensive Bloomberg terminals in order to keep up with demand and step up the speed of transactions and gain access to the latest prices.

    Each subscription costs $20,000 and is more commonly associated with a trading floor, but allows gold sellers to keep track of volatile prices, and instantly trade gold and currency with buyers far beyond the 4,000 shops of the Grand Bazaar.

    “It’s a classic fusion of tradition and revolution,” said a Bloomberg spokesman.

    “The Grand Bazaar is a uniquely dynamic and fast-moving trading environment that is highly price-sensitive.”

    Demand for gold has risen steadily over the last decade, and continued its rally for most of last year as the eurozone crisis, economic stagnation in the West and the inflationary effects of quantitative easing drove demand for the metal.

    It ended the year above $1,570 an ounce, well above its $1,420 price tag at the close of 2010, notwithstanding a sharp slump in early December.

    Prices were around $300 a decade ago and despite 11 consecutive years of gains, many experts predict the metal will continue to rise this year.

    Analysts at UBS, the Swiss bank, expect gold to hit $2,050 this year, although that view is seen as bullish by some, given the economic turmoil in Europe and contagion elsewhere.

    BNP Paribas has forecast an average price for 2012 of $1,775 an ounce, rising to $2,150 in 2013.

    via Grand Bazaar’s gold merchants turn to Bloomberg – Telegraph.

  • AFP: Turkey export growth ‘hits record in 2011’

    AFP: Turkey export growth ‘hits record in 2011’

    (AFP) – 22 hours ago

    531120111124024410440ANKARA — Turkey’s exports increased by a record 18.2 percent in 2011, reaching $134.6 billion, Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan said on Monday.

    “This is a record in the history of the republic,” the minister was quoted as saying by the Anatolia news agency.

    Turkish exports in December 2011 increased by 4.5 percent compared to the same month in 2010 and hit $12.1 billion, he added.

    Turkey, a country of about 73 million people and the world’s 17th-biggest economy, shows one of the highest growth rates in the world, but the government expects output to roughly halve next year because of the eurozone crisis.

    The economy grew by 8.9 percent in 2010 and the government forecasts growth of 8.0 percent for 2011.

    via AFP: Turkey export growth ‘hits record in 2011’.