Category: Business

  • Will Turkey become the next Black Swan?

    Will Turkey become the next Black Swan?

     

    By Luis Riestra Delgado — February 27, 2013

    Luis Riestra Delgado is an economist whose blog Macro Matters runs on Voz Pópuli.
    The new Turkish Lira could only bring economic stability for so long. AP Photo/Burhan Ozbilici

    turkishlira

    In the minefield of the global arena, Turkey, the 15th largest economy in the world, should be marked as the next contender for a financial crisis. If the past is the prologue of its economic disequilibrium, demography trend and history announce loud and clear a future destabilization that could beyond a financial crisis.

    An unstable economy

    Turkey has had record of high inflation and high public debt, but in 2003 it eliminated six zeros in its currency by issuing a redenominated Turkish Lira, commonly known as the second Turkish Lira, which brought a period of temporal stability to the economy.

    The economy booms

    The second Turkish Lira brought price stability and global investment to Turkey carrying the illusion that lower interest rates, higher fiscal income and lower public debt to GDP positioned the country as a stable nation. Turkey has even been qualified as emerging economy by the IMF, but the truth is that its economic disequilibriums are unsustainable and growing.

    From emerging to emergency

    Such a high growth track is not sustainable because their Current Account suffers a massive trade deficit, which jumped to 10% of GDP in 2011. That has been attenuated by an initial devaluation of the Lira making it close to 7% of the GDP but growing indicating that the problem is structural. This path is leading to a currency crisis that will bring higher inflation and unemployment, a higher public deficit and higher public debt putting the country at the doors of a sovereign debt crisis. In fact, the figures of Current Account deficit, Public Debt and Public Deficit are almost a mirror image of the Spanish ones during the year its real estate bubble burst.

    The day of reckoning will bring to Turkey a strong devaluation of its currency, which could have at least two devaluation stages with a loss pattern close to 0.4 Lira per dollar, until the economy stabilizes if it finally does. I don’t think that Turkey’s $118 million dollars in reserves, $18 million in gold, with a Current Account deficit close to $60 billion per year will be enough for an orderly devaluation without a strong fiscal adjustment to reduce consumption and imports.

    The population bomb is ticking

    In 1945, Turkey had a population similar to Spain’s in 1905; now it has almost doubled and will soon be larger than Germany. The necessary adjustment will probably leave the country with a structural unemployment that could be over 15%,  if we believe the official figures. This will aggravate a per se unstable nation that has a young population and additionally suffers the costs of a refugee crisis from the Syrian war.

    In modern times, Turkey has always seen the European Union as a solution to its need for growth. But the truth is, the EU cannot absorb the cost of its full membership, which is something that Turkey does not seem to understand. Meanwhile, the problem grows and the solutions frustrate Turkish citizens, pushing them to refuse membership to the West and radicalizing the Otomanism of the current government if a Turkish Spring were to explode.

    In the middle of nowhere?

    It remains even more uncertain how Turkey will react to a large succession of adverse events given its geopolitical situation, its long history of changing alliances (of which the flotilla is just a small appendix), its frustration with the EU rejection after 54 years of negotiation, and its renewed sight to the East,

    Imagine that a Turkish Spring radicalizes the government and induces it to join theShangai Cooperation Organization, which may induce it to leave NATO, where Turkey is, by now, just a mere observer. It could transform a financial crisis into a major geopolitical shift for the world. That would be a Black Swan.

  • Confused About What’s Happening With Istanbul Property? Here’s What To Expect In 2013 Say Colordarcy

    Confused About What’s Happening With Istanbul Property? Here’s What To Expect In 2013 Say Colordarcy

    Property investment company Colordarcy highlight the latest research from Gyoder, which shows that once again property prices were on the rise Istanbul in 2012.

    One of the key drivers for the boom was the Turkish government’s decision to open up the market for foreigners in 2012 by changing the rules on reciprocity which enabled people from more countries to invest.

    (PRWEB UK) 27 February 2013

    gI_80779_EdenHowever, there have also been some significant changes to the rules on tax and foreign investment in the past 12 months which may have an impact on prices in 2013 according to the firm according to Colordarcy.

    Median property prices in Istanbul have risen from $771.30 sqm to $942.6 sqm according to Gyoder research highlighted by Colordarcy.

    Loxley McKenzie Managing Director of Colordarcy commented, “One of the key drivers for the boom was the Turkish government’s decision to open up the market for foreigners in 2012 by changing the rules on reciprocity which enabled people from more countries to invest.”

    Colordarcy are keen to point out that prices kept on climbing despite a GDP slowdown in 2012 (Source: Turkstat) which put the brakes on the rapid economy growth of 2011. Even so, GDP still grew by more than 3% according to the latest forecasts.

    So what can investors expect to see happening in the Istanbul property market in 2013?

    One of the biggest factors this year will be the new 18% tax rate on properties of less than 150 sqm. The Turkish government has now decided to up the rate of tax on smaller properties. The sizes most investors are interested in.

    A report by Gyoder says that construction has slowed due to uncertainty about VAT or KDV as it is called in Turkey. If it does apply to the majority of properties in places where land values are high, there is a good chance that it will have a big impact.

    Prices could increase by 18% as a result of this alone and the resulting slowdown in construction can only be a good thing for investors nervous about oversupply.

    However, according to Istanbul property experts at Colordarcy, it may not be as simple as saying the tax increase will be on all properties less than 150 sqm. It is more likely to affect new developments in the centre of the city where competition for land has driven up prices.

    Even then, it may not apply to central locations where there is a regeneration project. This explains the slowdown in construction as developers take a step back.

    The short-term affect of the tax increase is one thing, looking at the longer term in Istanbul, local affordability is likely to improve to a level where a typical family living in Istanbul will be able to afford the mortgage payments on properties.

    This will be the tipping point where it becomes more attractive for local buyers to invest in affordable properties rather than rent. This point is yet to be reached in Istanbul, which is why rental yields are still among the best investors will find anywhere in Europe according to analysts at Colordarcy.

    There are, however, signs of a steady upward trend in affordability. As Istanbul’s population increases and this is a certainty, consider that the population of the city has risen from three million to 15 million in the last 40 years, then we will inevitably see demand for property naturally increase to satisfy the youthful population.

    Turkey’s Fitch rating improved to an investable grade in 2012 and this could end up making finance to buy property cheaper. The annual growth rate in housing loans increased by 11% in Turkey 2012 and even a modest lowering of interest rates could mean that typical families are able to buy rather than rent in some less expensive areas of Istanbul.

    It is not a case of if but when incomes rise high enough in Turkey as the economy continues to grow.

    Colordarcy forecast that there will be changes happening in the Istanbul property market in 2013. Key-ready apartments are likely to attract more attention from investors than buying off-plan as most investors hope to avoid the hike in tax passed on by developers.

    Either way, there is nothing to suggest that the breaks are on or that investors won’t be seeing more of the same combination of high capital growth and strong rental yields in Istanbul again this year.

    Notes to the editor:

    Colordarcy is a leading property investment company that specialises in finding positive cash flow investment properties worldwide. Colordarcy investment property portfolio includes some of the best properties for sale in Brazil, Florida, Turkey and the United Kingdom.

    For more information, supporting pictures or logo artwork, please contact:

    Brett Tudor

    PR Manager

    Tel: +44 (0) 207 100 2393

    Email: press(at)colordarcy(dot)com

    Web:

    via Confused About What’s Happening With Istanbul Property? Here’s What To Expect In 2013 Say Colordarcy.

  • Looking For Global Leadership In Turkey

    Looking For Global Leadership In Turkey

    It’s billed as the world’s largest gathering of chief executives. More than 2,600 are set to meet in Istanbul, Turkey, over the next three days at the annual Young Presidents’ Organization think-fest.

    Arcaid | UIG | Getty Images

    It’s a chance for them to network, do business, and figure out what is going on in the world.

    For CNBC, on the ground at the event, it’s an opportunity to tap into an organization whose member companies generate $6 trillion and employ 15 million people in 120 countries. We’ll be bringing you exclusive interviews and comment from the meeting. We’ll explore who’s confident, who’s adding jobs and who’s hunkering down.

    The timing couldn’t be sweeter. With the sequester in the U.S. running into the end of the week, Federal Reserve president Ben Bernanke promising continued Fed support, and Europe grappling for meaning from the Italian election, business leaders are confused. The economic signals are mixed, the politics perplexing and the markets apparently unconcerned by both.

    How do you make a major capital expenditure decision against that backdrop? Is it a time to grow or circle the wagons? What are the new markets to chase?

    The location of the event may bring some answers. Turkey has been one of Europe’s surprise performers in recent years. It’s also an economy keen to attract foreign capital and business know-how. The YPOers are not adverse to mixing a little business networking with new market research.

    For those interested in investing in the country, helpfully, we start our coverage with an exclusive interview with the Governor of the Central Bank on Feb. 28. Also on the agenda here are Muhtar Kent, Chairman and CEO of Coca Cola, and Sergio Marchionne, CEO of Fiat and Chairman and CEO, Chrysler Group.

    The formal sessions wrap on Friday with a global leader power pow-wow involving former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder, and former Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou.

    via Looking For Global Leadership In Turkey.

  • Economy minister offers Volkswagen investment in Turkey

    Economy minister offers Volkswagen investment in Turkey

    Caglayan said he would meet with company officials soon 

    EKONOMI BAKANI ZAFER CAGLAYAN

     

    World Bulletin / News Desk

    Turkey’s Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan has said that given the developments in Turkey’s automotive sector, he believed Volkswagen would not miss Turkey.

    Following “Second Turkish-German CEO Forum” also attended by German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Ankara, Caglayan answered the questions on Turkish-German business relations.

    On “Volkswagen investing in Turkey” issue Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Merkel talked about, Caglayan noted that Merkel said she would be happy on such investment by the company. He said he would meet with the company representatives soon.

    “Volkswagen is the most selling company in Turkey, yet has not invested in Turkey, which is hard to understand,” stated Caglayan.

    He said they sent letters to the CEOs of the leading companies of the world and invited them to invest in Turkey. He added they would meet with Volkswagen and offer them to invest in Turkey, saying that given the developments in Turkey’s automotive sector, he believed Volkswagen would not miss Turkey.

    “They try to put us off with impossible excuses on visa exemption and full membership,” he said on EU issues, adding that visa problems were intended to frustrate Turkish businessmen.

  • Istanbul To Have a New Urban Area

    Istanbul To Have a New Urban Area

    A new urban area that will soon be home to some 1.5 million people will be built in Istanbul. Officials say the construction for this new area is going to start in the next six months,  on the Black Sea coast on the European side of Istanbul, Hurriyet Daily News reported.

    magic-istanbul

    A magical city gets a new hotel – Courtesy maistora

    According to the news, the area will consist of four different settlements with specified urban functions, and its borders have been established through a protocol signed at the end of 2012 by the Turkish Transportation Ministry, the Environment and Urban Planning Ministry, the Housing Settlement Administration (TOKİ) and the Emlak Konut real estate investment trust (REIT), a subsidiary of TOKİ.

    According to government statements, this new urban area aims to become a health tourism center which will include a biomedical scientific park and health campuses with accommodation facilities and research and development centers.

    This new city area will be very close to the new airport that will be built in Istanbul by 2017 and will become world’s largest airport. As Turkey wants to host 2020 Olympic Games, another part of Istanbul development is an Olympic village which will also be constructed near the new city. This village is intended to be repurposed as university and urban service areas following the Olympic Games.

    From the looks of it, Turkey is really on the wave of attracting new tourists for a long period of time. Apart from announcing the plans for the big airport, Turkey mentioned that it plans to launch 69 new tourist areas this year.

    via Istanbul To Have a New Urban Area.

  • Could Turkey Be the Next Eastern Europe?

    Could Turkey Be the Next Eastern Europe?

    Property booms aren’t a new thing. But between 2000 and 2008 we can honestly say that we saw the first overseas property boom, a boom in people buying foreign property. If you were to pick an epicentre for the explosion Eastern Europe would definitely make the short-list. You would have to have been living under a stone between 2000 and 2008 to have missed the massive explosion of the Eastern European emerging markets onto the overseas property scene.

    This was driven by EU accession, as in 2004 Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia all acceded to the EU and onto the radars of property investors, followed by Bulgaria and Romania in 2007. But it was also fuelled by the mass-adoption of the internet, which made the meteoric emergence of these markets global news to potential property buyers. It quickly became common-knowledge that investing in emerging market property was the in-thing, as at such low prices bricks-and-mortar investments couldn’t possibly fail.

    In 2004 the Estonian housing market was booming, not the first housing market boom in the world, but for the first time casual armchair investors could watch it unfold.

    Brits had been buying overseas property for decades, but it was retirement and lifestyle choices as they bought far-from-cheap villas and luxury properties on the Mediterranean coast. Indeed, for years Brits’ idea of overseas property investment was buying a Spanish villa as a holiday home and hoping that it would also turn out to be a good investment. But as these new countries came into the EU Brits were exposed to property at incredibly low prices and with a strong potential for growth as EU accession boosted already growing economies.

    Brits and others from around the world made big bucks investing in emerging market property, especially in Czech Republic, Estonia, Poland, and to a lesser extent, Lithuania. In these countries investors often saw capital appreciation of up to and over 30% per year. The same happened when Bulgaria and Romania joined in 2007, in the former more than the latter because of its popular ski resorts.

    Turkey isn’t looking like acceding to the EU any time soon and if its property prices were growing at anywhere near 30% per annum in the current climate people would be running for the hills and I certainly wouldn’t be writing about it in an article like this. But the world has changed. For a start EU accession could be called a curse rather than a blessing in the EU’s current state, and secondly investors have a totally different outlook on what makes a good investment. During the boom investors were chasing big capital growth, but since the crash slow and steady wins the race. For that reason, along with a whole host of related reasons Turkey looks like being the next Eastern Europe.

    The next Estonia. Estonia wasn’t a dull market that was lucky to get into the EU, which caused a housing boom. Like the others Estonia got into the EU because it was a strong and vibrant emerging market full of potential, and its housing market was booming. In fact, according to the Global Property Guide the Estonian housing market was in a constant boom between 2000 and 2007.

    Before the financial crisis the Turkish economy had been growing by around 6% per annum since the AK Party took power in 2002, and its property market was doing OK with lifestyle buyers, but since the crash it has burst onto the scene as one of the hottest property markets in the world — in this respect the crisis has done Turkey a favour.

    The AK Party was elected on a wave of discontent as Turkey endured the latest in a long line of recessions in the boom-bust status qua. Military involvement in government was seen as a big part of the problem, and the AK Party promised to stop all that. As well as this they did things like increasing foreign exchange reserves and putting an office of the central bank in all major bank branches. Thanks to these steps the Turkish economy endured only a short recession during the financial crisis and the banking system not only stayed intact but emerged as one of the best in the smouldering-ash-world that remained.

    Since the recession ended in Q4 2009 it has grown in double digits year on year in several quarters, seen the second fastest growth in the world once, become the fastest growing economy in the EU in 2011, and generally one of the most vibrant and promising emerging markets in the world. This puts it on a par with any of the Eastern European markets as they headed into their property booms. However, they could boast potential 30% capital growth.

    Since emerging strongly from the financial crisis Turkish property prices have been growing at an average of 10% per year for the last 2 years according to the REIDIN/GYODER/Garanti Bank index. Another reason why the banking system not only survived but endured and prospered is because of its small mortgage market and therefore small exposure to the sub-prime whoopsie. Since the crash the Turkish mortgage market has been growing at 20-25 per cent per year according to central bank data.

    Today’s property investor doesn’t want scintillating growth, but combine the metrics above with Turkey’s strong employment and population growth, and you have a recipe investors can really sink their teeth into.

    Even holiday home investors aren’t losing out. During the Eastern Europe boom private casual foreign investors were almost all holiday home investors; buying holiday homes with the potential to make an income from renting them out to like-minded holidaymakers. Turkish tourism went from 9.75 million in 1998 to 26.3 million in 2008 and continued to grow even during the financial crisis, taking visitor numbers to 31.4 million in 2011. So there is plenty of growing demand in holiday hotspots for holiday home investors to find great opportunities as well.

    The AK Party has also given Turkey one thing surpassing any of the Eastern European markets of the past, economic stability. The party has paid down public debt from 74% of GDP in 2002 to just over 30% and IMF debt from $23.5 billion to just $5.5 billion as of 2011 according to Erdogan. Thanks to this and the party’s proven record of fiscal responsibility the Turkish economy is also one of the most stable in the world.

    Estonia and the Czech Republic were two incredibly popular markets from 2000-2005, and then you had Bulgaria and Ukraine from 2002-2008. In years to come Turkey will be called one of the hottest markets in the world between 2009 and 2018. What is it that they say about early bird and worm… It’s not too late for Turkey if you catch my drift.

     

    Written by Liam Bailey on behalf of Turkey property developer Wise Move Homes, the developer behind the nearing-completion 4-phaseAltinkum property development Apollon Holiday Village.