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Category: Business
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Bus to Turkish American Chamber of Commerce Conference in Washinton DC
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Turkey seeks shield amid missile-defense negotiations
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu says it’s not so and American officials are mum, but according to a top defense lobbyist, “negotiations are ongoing” over U.S. plans to deploy a missile-defense shield in Turkey, a possibility floated last week by a Polish newspaper.
Riki Ellison, chairman of the U.S.-based Missle Defense Advocacy Alliance, or MDAA, insisted to the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review that claims by the Polish newspaper are valid.
The stir began last week when the Warsaw-based daily Gazeta Wyborcza reported that U.S. President Barack Obama has “all but abandoned” plans to locate parts of a controversial U.S. missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. The newspaper said the Pentagon has been asked to explore switching planned interceptor-rocket launch sites from the two Central European states to Israel, Turkey or the Balkans.
U.S. plans to deploy a missile-defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic have created serious tension between Russia and the United States in the past. Russia has repeatedly responded to U.S. missile-defense plans with countermeasures.
It is no secret that the Obama administration’s promise to “reset” relations with Russia prompted Obama to launch a strategic review of the defense shield.
Amid the Pentagon’s search for a new strategy, last week’s reports turned heads toward Turkey. Foreign Minister Davutoğlu immediately responded to the claims, saying that the government has not received any request from the United States or NATO regarding the missile-defense project.
Ellison said he hopes to see a working missile-defense shield in operation by 2013. Ellison’s MDAA is a nonprofit organization launched in 2002 to advocate deployment of an anti-missile program.
Ellison said he believes there will be a concerted effort from the United States to work with the Turkish government to install missile shields at four bases in Turkey. “Negotiations are happening already and they will continue to go forward,” he said.
Ellison is evidently well informed on the strategy. However, Turkey’s acceptance of the missile-defense plan may not be realistic, given the risk to its relations with Russia, already frayed by other tensions. Turkey may be a U.S. ally, but Russia supplies the majority of its energy and has a hand in Turkey’s future in the Caucasus.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s Aug. 6 visit to Ankara for talks with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan secured some 20 agreements covering energy, trade and other areas, including nuclear cooperation. Russian authorities have also agreed to scrap regulations requiring the full inspection of Turkish goods at customs.
Turkey has been playing a very careful game for some time when it comes to its relations with Russia. Ankara does not want to make an enemy out of Moscow.
Accepting the deployment of U.S. defense shields in Turkey would be a major step toward a whole new round of tense Turkish-Russian relations at a critical and vulnerable time. Russia would probably play its energy card against Turkey and could even annul this year’s previous agreements.
The deployment could also have a negative impact on Turkey’s relations with its neighboring countries in the Middle East. Starting with the Turkish Parliament’s March 2003 decision to prevent the United States from invading Iraq through Turkish territory, Turkey has been trying to follow a relatively independent line in its foreign policy. Acceptance of the missile shield would destroy most of Turkey’s diplomatic capital among Middle Eastern countries, which perceived Turkey as making its own decisions after the 2003 bill.
There is another scenario that sounds more realistic: Turkey currently has no defense against ballistic missiles. According to past news reports, Turkey has been planning to purchase a missile-defense system for some time. Turkey has begun “preliminary talks with the United States, Russia, Israel and China with regard to its plans to buy its first missile defense system, worth more than $1 billion,” wrote the Daily News last year.
This invites the question: Is missile defense a matter of packaging? Might Turkey avoid allowing the United States to install a missile-defense system on her soil? Rather, might the rumors circulating stem from a bid by Turkey to buy a missile-defense system for herself?
It is hard to imagine the difference would calm Russia. It is known that Russia is firmly against any U.S. missile shields in Turkey, just as it is against the installations in Central Europe. And despite its determination to expand its military capabilities, Turkey would probably like to stay out of the struggle between Washington and Moscow.
Hurriyetdailynews -
Turkey Specifies a Range of New Ships
The Turkish navy has in a relatively short period of time gone from being a collection of hand-me-down ships to a service that is able to make its presence felt in regional waters with advanced vessels from foreign suppliers and, increasingly, local shipyards.
The navy is neither the largest nor wealthiest of Turkey’s armed services. Nevertheless, by carefully managing resources and subjecting suppliers to extensive certification tests, it is undertaking an expansion program that will upgrade or replace most of its surface fleet in coming years with a range of ships. It also plans to procure amphibious landing and transport vessels that will enhance force-projection and relief efforts.
As part of the expansion, the navy seeks more independence from foreign suppliers and, eventually, autonomy when it comes to developing ships, weapons and sensors. Efforts are underway to increase the capabilities of local shipbuilders through cooperative programs with foreign shipyards that call for a lead ship to be built abroad and sister ships built locally under license.
Turkish shipyards are, as a result, working on increasingly complex designs. Turkey has a robust commercial shipbuilding industry, which supports almost 40 shipyards, supplies a large merchant fleet and sells many vessels abroad. Turkey’s undersecretariat for defense industries wants to qualify 3-5 shipyards for naval vessels, with contracts awarded competitively.
At stake in the buildup is Turkey’s regional position and economy. The country faces potential threats from many directions: A resurgent Russia that seeks to reestablish spheres of influence in the north; the muddle of Middle Eastern politics and conflicts to the south; an historic rivalry with Greece in the west; and an unpredictable Iran to the east. Ninety percent of Turkey’s trade moves by sea and the navy must guarantee the passage of commercial ships, monitor 8,300 km. (5,157 mi.) of coastline and protect islands it claims in the Aegean.
Turkey’s navy is a 55,000-man force with a number of vessel types. The core surface fleet is made up of 19 frigates. These include German Meko 200 ships and former U.S. Navy Perry- and Knox-class vessels. There are also six corvettes from the French navy. Littoral operations make use of 25 fast-attack missile boats and a dozen patrol boats. The mine warfare force has a number of vessels for inshore, coastal and blue-water operations, most obtained second-hand from the U.S., France and Germany. The amphibious force is small and uses old ships, as do auxiliary and support units. The submarine corps has 14 boats of German design.
The construction of new vessels nearly matches the modernization of ships in service, which relies on foreign and local technology. The service is standardizing weapon systems, sensors and electronics across the fleet.
The navy, however, is not willing to take risks in modernization. While it trusts local shipbuilders to meet long-term commitments (the program may last 20 years), it does not do so without extensively testing designs before committing to orders. In submarines, the navy expects to rely on foreign designs due to the technical hurdles associated with their construction. Nevertheless, there is a desire to develop a submarine combat system, heavy torpedo and sensors locally.
In February, the navy awarded Lockheed Martin a contract to upgrade four Perry-class and the first two Meko 200 IIA frigates. Requirements include installation of the Mk 41 vertical launching system (VLS), which will load Mk 25 quad-pack cells for Raytheon’s ESSM antiair/antimissile system, replacing the Standard SM-1 (supported by Raytheon) on the Perry. The Perry retrofit also involves a combat management system (CMS) based on the Genesis, developed by local manufacturer Havelsan with Raytheon (and initially aimed at the Knox frigates), which is to be installed on new Milgem corvettes. All Perry-class ships will have the Genesis CMS, though not all can receive the Mk 41. Two Knox-class frigates will be retired.
The navy is moving ahead with the ambitious TF-2000 antiair-warfare (AAW) frigate program (some experts say the vessels are really guided-missile destroyers), whose start has been postponed several times. The 6,000-plus-ton vessels, to be built by Golcuk Naval Shipyard, are a local effort with foreign partner assistance.
The timetable calls for completing the design by 2011, with a Batch I contract signed for two vessels in 2014, and commissioning in 2021 and 2022. Batch II, with three vessels, will proceed from 2023-28. Few details are known about weapons and sensors, but each ship will have 32 VLS cells, a Mk 41 launcher that fires Standard SM-2 and ESSM antiair missiles, two helicopters, a 127-mm. gun, antiship missiles and antisubmarine-warfare torpedoes.
The most important national program is the Milgem corvettes. The navy wants 12 ships (four on option), and in the process will replace six corvettes. The first-in-class ship, Heybeliada, was launched in September 2008 and will not be commissioned before 2011. The second, Buyukada, will undergo lengthy testing with a different weapon and sensor suite. There will be a gap between the first two corvettes and series production of an additional six and the option vessels. This is part of the navy’s “test before more buying” strategy. Each corvette displaces 2,000 tons, is 99 meters (325 ft.) long and capable of 30 kt. with a combined diesel and gas powerplant. Armaments include a 76-mm. Oto Melara gun, Boeing Harpoon antiship missiles, Raytheon Rolling Airframe Missile launcher, torpedoes and a helicopter.
The navy’s fast-attack force relies on three Lurssen Kilic 57 boats from Germany and three Tufans (with three more planned), which are built in Turkey. There are also 10 Dogan Type 57 boats and eight former Jaguar boats, both from Germany, which have been rearmed with Penguin antiship missiles from Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace of Norway. Replacement of the Jaguars is underway following the acquisition of 16 patrol boats that will be delivered by local shipbuilder Dearsan starting in 2010. These 400-ton, 55-meter vessels will do 25 kt. The service is evaluating armament for the ships.
The submarine fleet has a version of the German Type-209 design. Six Atilay boats, Type 209/1200, which were to be refitted, will instead be replaced by six HDW Type 214s with air-independent propulsion systems, in a €2.5-billion ($3.55-billion) program. The 214s will be built locally, with initial delivery expected in 2015, and others at a rate of one every two years. Eight of the more modern Type 209/1400s will stay in service and could be modernized.
Turkey wants to expand its amphibious capabilities by acquiring large transport and assault platforms to support a marine brigade, which relies on old, small LSTs (landing ship-tanks) and LCTs (landing craft-tanks). The service wants amphibious craft that also deliver relief supplies. The country is earthquake-prone, and the government has ordered the services to improve relief capabilities. The goal is to acquire one or two LPDs (landing platform-docks), two LSTs and eight LCTs. A contract has been awarded to local builder Adik-Furtrans for the LCTs, which will be 1,200 tons and 80 meters long, capable of 20 kt. and able to carry 320 tons of cargo. The competition for the LSTs is in its final phase, with Adik battling RMK to supply the 5,000-ton, 18-kt. vessels, which will have a 1,200-ton cargo capacity and helicopter deck. LPD plans are moving slower, since the 20,000-ton vessels could be too big for local military shipbuilders. There is a need for a foreign partner to supply design and technical assistance.
Turkey’s navy needs modern support ships for effective operations in blue water. Plans call for acquiring a 10,000-ton submarine rescue ship, with a contract award planned for 2012, one or two 2,500-3,000-ton rescue and towing ships, with a contract expected next year, two fleet-replenishing ships and a research vessel that will replace or add to current support ships.
Mine warfare is a specialty of the Turkish navy, but budget priorities have for years forced the service to rely on old or second-hand vessels. This approach was reversed with the decision to acquire five Alanya-class coastal minehunters, with the first-of-class built by Abeking & Rasmussen of Germany. The next four will be constructed in Turkey. Additional minehunters could replace older types in service.
Credit: ASELSAN CONCEPT
AVIATION WEEK
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US chemical conference – fuels from CO2 and hydrogen
Production, Aug 24 2009 (The Hydrogen Journal)
– A meeting was held during the 238th American Chemical Society national meeting, looking at ways to make jet fuel by reacting carbon dioxide with hydrogen, with researches from the US Naval Research Laboratory, according to an article on Green Car Congress.com.
Normally a large amount of energy would be needed to make the reaction happen (which is not a useful way to make a fuel). But scientists believe that the amount of energy required could be reduced with catalysts.
Tests were made using Co/Pt/Al2O3 catalyst under a range of different concentrations of CO2 : H2 and different pressures.
The UK´s University of Liverpool is also investigating ways to convert CO2 to organic molecules, using electricity as an energy source.
Green Car Congress article
The Hydrogen Journal
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Turkish Economy Moves out of Freefall: Recovery Requires More Time
Turkish Economy Moves out of Freefall: Recovery Requires More Time
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 154August 11, 2009By: Saban KardasThe Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) released its June figures on the industrial production index, which gave mixed signals concerning the influence of the economic crisis on the Turkish economy (www.turkstat.gov.tr, Press Release, August 10). The figures show that although industrial output is still down from last year’s levels, industrial production is moving upward. The Turkish economy is no longer in the free fall, but a permanent economic recovery might not materialize soon.Industrial production dropped by 9.7 percent in June 2009 on a year-on-year basis, maintaining a continuous decline since the second half of 2008. After industrial production contracted by a record 23.8 percent in February, the decline in industrial output started to slow down in March, and this process has continued (EDM, June 11). As a sign of this partial recovery, in June the contraction rate dropped to single digits for the first time since November 2008. Moreover, in June industrial output increased by 7.3 percent compared to May (www.turkstat.gov.tr, August 10). This trend follows on the previous month. In May, TurkStat announced that industrial output increased by 0.8 percent compared to April (www.cnnturk.com, July 31).
According to the main industrial groupings (MIG’s) classification, the highest decline in June compared with the previous year was in capital goods -by 29.7 percent. Production declined by 10.6 percent in manufacturing industry, 7.9 percent in mining, and 7 percent in energy.
Economists suggest that the slowing of the decline over four consecutive months and the rise in output on a month-on-month basis has bolstered expectations that the contraction might be bottoming out. Tanil Kucuk, the Chairman of the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO), said that although 9.7 percent is a very high rate of decline under normal conditions, “looking at the economic situation for the past year, we consider this development the lesser of two evils and find it promising” (Hurriyet Daily News, August 10).
Experts believe that there is a visible upturn in the Turkish economy. Recently released economic figures also lend partial support to this optimistic outlook. Data released by the Central Bank showed that the current account deficit dropped 65 percent in June on a year-on-year basis. In the first half of 2009, the current account deficit was also down 75.7 percent compared to the same period last year (www.ntvmsnbc.com, August 10). According to the projections of TurkStat based on the figures from the first half of 2008, Turkey’s foreign trade deficit is likely to decrease by the end of the year and will drop to $27.2 billion (Referans, August 11). At the end of 2008, Turkey’s foreign trade balance recorded a $69.8 billion deficit (Milliyet, January 30). The exponentially growing foreign account deficit and foreign trade deficit were major concerns for the Turkish economy prior to the global financial crisis. The slowdown brought about by the crisis had a positive effect by curbing Turkey’s imports. Although exports also declined, as a result of the shrinking global economy, the Central Bank estimates that Turkey’s export volume will grow as the global economy starts to recover.
The improvement is attributed largely to the economic recovery plans which the government launched in the first half of the year. Through several stimulus packages, the government introduced temporary tax cuts on automobiles, home appliances and housing in order to generate domestic demand and reduce the impact of the crisis on the country (EDM, March 16). The effect of the economic packages in this recovery is evident, especially in household appliances production, where there is a clear increase. The production of durable consumer goods increased by 7.2 percent and perishable consumer goods increased by 1.8 percent. However, the production decline within the automotive sector has continued (www.turkstat.gov.tr, August 10).
Nonetheless, experts estimate that the effect of the domestic demand generated by the stimulus packages might wane after August. Therefore, they expect the contraction in the economy to persist in the third quarter of 2009, and perhaps beyond (www.ntvmsnbc.com, August 10). Therefore, though finding the recent figures promising, the representatives of industrialists had expected more than “hope” and called on the government to take additional precautions to get the country out of recession (Anadolu Ajansi, August 10).
However, given the heavy costs of the previous packages on the treasury, the government is unlikely to pass a large-scale stimulus package. Due to the public spending ahead of the March local elections and the declining state revenues as a result of the crisis, the budget deficit has already surpassed the estimates at the beginning of the year. While the deficit is expected to reach TL 70 billion at the end of the year, the government is trying to keep it within the range of TL 60 billion. Toward this end, it has already raised some taxes and announced cuts in spending, including healthcare. Therefore, rather than introducing new packages to stimulate demand, the government is working on new measures to narrow the budget deficit (Radikal, July 23). Although tax hikes and limitations on government spending might narrow the gap, they may also curb demand and negatively affect growth.
The Turkish economy may no longer be in free fall, but it is unclear how sustainable the recovery might prove. Since the effect of the domestic stimulus packages appears to be short-lived and the government is unlikely to initiate any new stimulus packages, the Turkish economy’s sustainable recovery depends on external demand, and hence developments within the global economy.
Fortunately, the upward trend in the Turkish economy is accompanied by the recent news coming from the world markets. American, Chinese and other large economies also reported the positive effect of economic packages in preventing the deepening of the global recession. While signs of recovery have raised hopes that the global economic downturn might be coming to an end, it is too early to expect an expanding external demand to stimulate the Turkish economy. Therefore, it might take more time before Turkey can move out of the recession.
https://jamestown.org/program/turkish-economy-moves-out-of-freefall-recovery-requires-more-time/ -
Turkey and Russia Conclude Energy Deals
ISTANBUL — Russia and Turkey concluded energy agreements on Thursday that will support Turkey’s drive to become a regional hub for fuel transshipments while helping Moscow maintain its monopoly on natural gas shipments from Asia to Europe.
Turkey granted the Russian natural gas giant Gazprom use of its territorial waters in the Black Sea, under which the company wants to route its so-called South Stream pipeline to gas markets in Eastern and Southern Europe.
In return, a Russian oil pipeline operator agreed to join a consortium to build a pipeline across the Anatolian Peninsula, from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, and Gazprom affirmed a commitment to expand an existing Black Sea gas pipeline for possible transshipment across Turkey to Cyprus or Israel.
Energy companies in both countries agreed to a joint venture to build conventional electric power plants, and the Interfax news agency in Russia reported that Prime MinisterVladimir V. Putin offered to reopen talks on Russian assistance to Turkey in building nuclear power reactors.
The agreements were signed in Ankara, the Turkish capital, in meetings between Mr. Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Italy’s prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, who has joined Mr. Putin on several energy projects, attended the ceremony. The Italian company Eni broke ground on the trans-Anatolian oil pipeline this year.
While the offer of specific pipeline deals and nuclear cooperation represented a new tactic by Mr. Putin, the wider struggle for dominance of the Eurasian pipelines is a long-running chess match in which he has often excelled.
As he has in the past, Mr. Putin traveled to Turkey with his basket of tempting strategic and economic benefits immediately after a similar mission by his opponents. A month ago, European governments signed an agreement in Turkey to support the Western-backed Nabucco pipeline, which would compete directly with the South Stream project.
By skirting Russian territory, the Nabucco pipeline would undercut Moscow’s monopoly on European natural gas shipments and the pricing power and political clout that come with it. That may explain why Nabucco, which cannot go forward without Turkey’s support, has encountered a variety of obstacles thrown up by the Russian government, including efforts to deny it vital gas supplies in the East and a customer base in the West.
Turkey and other countries in the path of Nabucco have been eager players in this geopolitical drama, entertaining offers from both sides. Turkish authorities have even tried, without much success, to leverage the pipeline negotiations to further Turkey’s bid to join the European Union, while keeping options with Russia open, too.
“These countries are more than happy to sign agreements with both parties,” Ana Jelenkovic, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said in a telephone interview from London. “There’s no political benefit to shutting out or ceasing energy relations with Russia.”
Under the deal Mr. Putin obtained Thursday, Gazprom will be allowed to proceed with seismic and environmental tests in Turkey’s exclusive economic zone, necessary preliminary steps for laying the South Stream pipe, Prime Minister Erdogan said at a news conference.
After the meeting, Mr. Putin said, “We agreed on every issue.”
The trans-Anatolian oil pipeline also marginally improves Russia’s position in the region. The pipeline is one of two so-called Bosporus bypass systems circumventing the straits between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, which are operating at capacity in tanker traffic.
The preferred Western route is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which allows companies to ship Caspian Basin crude oil to the West without crossing Russian territory; the pipeline instead crosses the former Soviet republic of Georgia and avoids the crowded straits by cutting across Turkey to the Mediterranean.
Russia prefers northbound pipelines out of the Caspian region that terminate at tanker terminals on the Black Sea. The success of this plan depends, in turn, on creating additional capacity in the Bosporus bypass routes. Russia is backing two such pipelines.
Mr. Putin’s offer to move ahead with a Russian-built nuclear power plant in Turkey suggests a sweetening of the overall Russian offer on energy deals with Turkey, while both Western and Russian proposals are on the table.
The nuclear aspect of the deal drew protests. About a dozen Greenpeace protesters were surrounded by at least 200 armored police officers in central Ankara on Thursday.
Andrew E. Kramer contributed reporting from Moscow.
The New York Times