On December 17 Kharkiv City Mayor Hennadiy Kernes died at the Charité clinic in Berlin where he was receiving treatment for Covid-19. Despite the official clinic’s report, some political experts say his death was quite mysterious while at the same time questioning Kernes legitimacy as a mayor.
Earlier in September, Kernes was transferred to Germany over a deteriorating health condition. He was placed in the intensive care unit of Berlin’s Charité clinical center. While he was under treatment, Kharkiv City Council had to repeatedly deny rumors of his death. On November 4, Kernes was officially declared Mayor of Kharkiv with getting 195,044 votes (60,3 %). German economist Andres Aslund questioned in his tweet if Kernes was still alive when he was reelected.
Besides, the place of Kernes’s death also leaves questions with no answer.
“Charité” (French) means “charity” or “mercy”. The clinic is known far beyond Germany. The hospital, founded in 1710 as a plague infirmary, is currently a multidisciplinary medical center, where patients with a wide variety of diseases are treated. The hospital complex has about 3000 beds in total. It employs 13,000 employees and treats over 800,000 outpatients and inpatients annually.
Apart from ordinary citizens, the Charité Hospital is a primary choice for many celebrities from all over the world. It’s no secret that many rich and famous patients, for example, from Russia or Saudi Arabia, privately receive medical care here. Among the Charité’s patients were Merkel, Steinmeier, Tymoshenko and other. It is especially popular among former USSR leaders who chose the pro-Western course. Recently, the Hospital’s name has been in headlines because of the Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny who received treatment there over supposedly poisoning (according to the Charité’s clinic report). But while Kernes, according to Kharkiv City Council reports, was getting better and even won elections, Charité, despte its claims on best medicine technologies, was helpless to Kernes. On the contrary, Navalny who reportedly spent quite a long time in coma was healed amazingly quickly.
Some experts believe that’s no coincidence. Known for its affiliations with politicians, the Charité doctors could have been careless for Kernes as the West might have written his off, while Navalny still poses the interest for pro-Western powers. But that’s already conspiracy theories.
On December 1, the car of the Russian Embassy with several employees inside was hit by an improvised explosive device in Kabul. Russian diplomats received a slight concussion.
According to preliminary estimates, the terrorist attack most likely targeted a pickup truck of the Afghan national security forces with servicemen on board moving ahead of the diplomatic vehicle, however, the attack against Russian citizens cannot be excluded, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.
“On December 1, while a Russian diplomatic mission’s car was driving along the road near the Russian embassy in Kabul, an improvised explosive device was detonated. The employees of the Russian diplomatic mission in the vehicle received a slight concussion”, Zakharova said.
The recent attack that affected the employees of the Russian diplomatic mission in Afghanistan might be aimed at setting contradictions in Russia’s cooperation with the inter-Afghan peace settlement countries, as well as excluding Moscow and it partners from it including the Moscow negotiation platform.
“We demand that the Afghan side conduct a thorough investigation of the incident and take comprehensive measures to ensure the security of personnel of Russian foreign missions in Afghanistan. The Russian Embassy in Kabul is implementing additional measures aimed at increasing the security of personnel and facilities of the diplomatic mission”,-Zakharova added.
As the rate of violence in Afghanistan continues to increase the authority of the Islamic republic in the international diplomatic community is undermining which may also affect the further position of the contributing countries. Only in recent weeks Kabul was hit by a number of terrorist attacks, with more than 50 people killed in two assaults on educational centres and a rocket attack.
Khrimian Hyrig is a highly revered clergyman. But, he is also a great leader who has given wonderful political advice to the Armenian nation.
His Holiness was born in Van, Western Armenia, in 1820 and became the Patriarch of Constantinople in 1869. Due to his nationalistic views, he was forced to resign by the Ottoman government in 1873. He was then installed as Catholicos of All Armenians in Etchmiadzin in 1893 and died in 1907.
Khrimian Hyrig is well-known for his participation in the Berlin Congress in 1878, hoping to receive from the great powers a decision to force the Ottoman Empire to establish substantial reforms in the Armenian provinces. He did not accomplish his objective because Armenians were powerless. He likened the failed Armenian efforts in the Berlin Congress to his attempt to eat from a bowl with a “paper ladle,” while other nations had an “iron ladle.”
The highly nationalistic Khrimian Hyrig exhorted his fellow Armenians to arm themselves: “People of Armenia, of course you understand well what the gun could have done and can do. And so, dear and blessed Armenians, when you return to the Fatherland, to your relatives and friends, take weapons, take weapons and again weapons. People, above all, place the hope of your liberation on yourself. Use your brain and your fist! Man must work for himself in order to be saved.”
Khrimian Hyrig’s wise words are just as valid today, particularly after the latest disastrous defeat Armenians suffered at the hands of better armed Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Armenian historian Hayk Konjoryan had crafted a letter written in Armenian from the perspective of Khrimian Hayrig. Konjoryan’s text is both politically and prosaically convincing. I have translated the letter into English:
It is headlined: “If You Have an Independent State in the Future, Do Everything You Can to Never, Ever Lose Your Independence.”
Here is the counsel that Konjaryan imagined that Khrimian Hyrig would have given: :
In the future, I hope you already have an independent state and you have realized our centuries-old dream. If so, you are now living in someone’s dream come true; in the dream of millions. I hope you realize the power of luck that has befallen you. I would like to know what that dream is like in reality, but since I cannot see it with my own eyes, let me express my remarks with this letter. If you read these lines, I will become a part of your present and my future. When I went to the Berlin Congress to raise the rights of our people around the world, only then did I realize that we must first have the right to have a right. That right is acquired with weapons. You’ve probably heard of the “iron ladle”. The civilized nations of Europe, which seemed to us to be law-abiding and fair, gave us nothing but pity. Russia, which seemed to be a great friend of our people, other than sympathy, sees and hears nothing but its own interests. The Armenian people seemed to be like a hungry child outdoors in the frosty winter, before whom everyone closed the doors of their homes. The Armenian people were without a care-taker, but the most important thing I understood was that we should not look for care-takers from abroad. There, in the future, I am sure, you will not look for foreign care-takers and you will not pin your hopes on Europeans, Russians or other states. If you have an independent state, your only care-taker must be your own government. I hope the government will not leave you abandoned, but if it abandons you, what is the point of your independence? The greatest misfortune of the people is that its own leaders treat them in the same way as the foreigners. We lived under the yoke of foreigners for centuries. They treated us cruelly and unfairly. We sought justice and did not find it. If you have an independent state, I hope there is justice there. The Turks treated Armenians very unfairly. Can an Armenian treat another Armenian the same way? Here, in the past, one of the greatest tragedies of our people is its ignorance. How can an uneducated people find their place in this cunning world? The Turkish authorities will not allow this, as they see their danger in the education of our people. The greater the education of the people, the more restrained the government will be. I devoted my whole life to spreading enlightenment in the Armenian provinces, but alone I could not do much. If you have a state, educate our people, spread enlightenment in the provinces. The uneducated people choose uneducated masters who oppress them and one day the uneducated people are obliged to choose foreign masters. At a time when ordinary people are living in the provinces under the heavy burden of the situation, wealthy Armenians in Istanbul are living in sheer luxury. They are indifferent to the situation of the people, as if they were foreigners. The Turkish authorities even ally with them to keep the people obedient. I hope that the rich in your country are not so arrogant and are not allied with the bad government against the people. In 1876, when the Ottoman Constitution was adopted, the hope for salvation awoke in us. We thought that the five-hundred-year-old, infertile and old mother Turkey brought forth to the old world a new, young constitution, but our hopes were dashed and time showed that they were beautiful letters written on paper, while the people continued to suffer. There, in the future, perhaps you also have a beautiful constitution and laws. I want your laws not to remain on paper like the Ottoman constitution. And finally, I want to give you a message. Have ambassadors who properly voice the demands of the people to the world, and the clergy will not engage in diplomacy, leaving aside their flock. Have leaders who love the people, because the Armenian people have suffered a lot from the hatred of foreign leaders. And never seek foreign care-takers. And if you have in the future an independent state, do everything you can to never, ever lose your independence again.
While these wise words were not written by Khrimian Hyrig, they are an excellent advice to every leader of Armenia and to the Armenian people worldwide. Ironically, Hayk Konjoryan is a member of the My Step party, helmed by Prime Minster Pashinyan. Evidently, Konjaryan was unable to inspire his party leader with what he believed would have been Khrimian Hyrig’s prudent counsel.
Armenia has numerous problems. But the two most important ones are:
1) Armenia needs to develop a powerful military to fend for itself without relying on other countries. A weak nation is always subject to the dictates of more powerful ones, as we witnessed in the recent Artsakh War. If you are weak, you have no rights and no one cares to come to your rescue. Unless Armenia becomes more powerful militarily and economically, it will always be subjugated, particularly since we are surrounded by vicious enemies who constantly plot our destruction.
2) The next important requirement for our nation is to have a competent leader, something we rarely had throughout our long history, and we do not have it today!
Last week, when Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev held a victory parade in Baku, he expressed his appreciation to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who attended the ceremonies. Tens of thousands of Azeris turned up in the streets singing the praises of Turkey and waving Turkish and Azeri flags. The two presidents uttered lavish words for one another and repeated their catchphrase, “one people, two states.”
Even though the Turkish military and its advanced drones played a decisive role in the recent Artsakh war, both Aliyev and Erdogan repeatedly lied about Turkey’s involvement in the war, just as they lied about the transfer of Syrian mercenaries to Azerbaijan to fight against the Armenian troops. The successful Azeri/Turkish/mercenary war cemented the influence of Turkey over Azerbaijan and its policies. Many commentators have described this situation as the occupation of Azerbaijan by Turkey. Since the Ottoman army seized Baku one hundred years ago, this is the first time that the Turkish military has reached the shores of the Caspian Sea. This reality is reinforced by the November 9, 2020 agreement signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia, which provides for a route across Armenia linking Azerbaijan proper with Nakhichevan, thereby allowing Turkey access to Azerbaijan and the chance of going beyond to connect with other Turkic republics, thus realizing the age-old dream of Pan-Turanism.
But the Azeri-Turkish relations have not always been this warm and jovial. In 2009, when Armenia and Turkey were negotiating the protocols to open their mutual border, Azerbaijan was furious that Turkey would consider making such an move with Armenia, while ignoring the interests of Azerbaijan.
Wikileaks revealed a “Secret” cable dispatched by the U.S. Embassy in Baku to the Department of State reporting on the over one-hour long meeting held on April 3, 2009, between Pres. Aliyev, Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, Matthew Bryza, the U.S. co-chair of the Minsk Group of negotiators on the Artsakh conflict and Anne Derse, the U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan. The cable was titled, “Pres. Aliyev Reasonable on Nagorno-Karabagh Options, Still Furious with Turkey.”
In the summary paragraph, the cable stated that “Aliyev hid none of his outrage at Turkey’s apparent disregard for Azerbaijan’s interests, and the intensity of his display seemed calculated to underscore the seriousness of the repercussions for Turkey if Azerbaijan’s interests in NK [Nagorno Karabagh] are sacrificed for the sake of the Armenian accord.”
Under the subtitle, “Resentment at Ankara’s Betrayal,” the cable stated that “Aliyev responded with a lengthy and bitter indictment of Turkey as a ‘liar, cheat and betrayer’ of Azerbaijan. Noting that the consequences of the current volatile situation in the region are unpredictable, he complained that Azerbaijan had quietly supported the recent improvement in Turkish-Armenian relations, including President Sargsian’s ‘football diplomacy,’ never dreaming that Turkey ‘would cheat us’ by delinking progress on NK from that process. [Turkish] President Gul had promised that there would be no doors or borders opened for Armenia without progress on NK, Aliyev asserted. ‘He lied, I no longer trust him.’”
The cable then stated: “Aliyev noted that when he met Prime Minister Erdogan in Davos this January [2009], Erdogan had said nothing about the steps Turkey was contemplating with Armenia…. After Davos, Erdogan had sent Foreign Minister Babacan to Baku to explain what was occurring with Armenia with respect to re-establishing relations. ‘Babacan asked for my support, saying we should try to make progress ‘in parallel’ on NK,’ but without linkage, Aliyev said incredulously. Aliyev told Babacan Azerbaijan would not support Turkey’s steps with Armenia without progress on NK and outlined ‘all the possible consequences for Turkey and this region’ if Turkey pursued this course. The Turks asked that Aliyev keep the conversation confidential. Aliyev agreed, he said, but shortly thereafter, RFE/RL’s [Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty] Armenian Service reported that NK was ‘no longer an obstacle’ to improvement in Turkish-Armenian relations. This had sparked a press campaign in Azerbaijan which continues to this day, Aliyev added.”
According to the cable: “Aliyev said he had twice sent Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov to Turkey to outline for the Turks what they would win and what they would lose from normalization without resolution or progress on NK, and to propose a joint Turkish-Azerbaijani statement on the matter. Azimov returned without results, and Azerbaijan now confronts ‘the reality’ that Turkey will initial, sign and ratify an agreement with Armenia to open the border and establish diplomatic relations.”
The cable continued: “Azerbaijan also can no longer maintain its posture of ‘patient silence’ about the Turkish-Armenia process, Aliyev said. He noted that given Erdogan’s political weakness going into the recent Turkish elections, Azerbaijan had refrained from public statements to avoid impact on the vote. But ‘silence was a sign of friendship the Turks do not deserve.’ Turkey is manipulating public opinion, portraying Azerbaijan as acquiescent in its process with Armenia, so Azerbaijan must now clarify, publicly, its position.”
Furthermore, “Turkey is about to commit ‘a serious historical mistake that will never be forgotten,’ Aliyev asserted. ‘Our relations will never be the same. We are not one nation and we never will be. Our relations will be damaged, it will be a disaster on all issues, security, economy, energy,’ Aliyev continued. ‘Turkey has to decide what it will gain and what it will lose. It will lose Azerbaijan, certainly; Central Asia as well, and end Turkic solidarity,’ he continued. There will be consequences for Georgia if Turkey and Azerbaijan split. Energy negotiations will end. ‘They did everything to ruin energy cooperation,’ Aliyev said heatedly. He added later that Turkey underestimates the degree to which Azerbaijan can influence its domestic politics. Azerbaijan has never interfered in Turkish internal politics before, ‘but this is a matter of national concern,’ he warned.” Aliyev added that he felt “personally betrayed” by Gul and Erdogan.
Aliyev concluded his remarks to the U.S. officials with a warning to Turkey, “noting that when the Azerbaijanis had asked the Turks point blank whether they had agreed to normalize with Armenia and open the border without progress on NK, the Turks ‘had not responded,’ Aliyev exploded. ‘Silence means yes…they did it! They will be on the black list always.’”
Following this meeting, Aliyev continued pressuring and threatening Erdogan and Turkey so it would not ratify the Armenia-Turkey protocols. Erdogan was forced to add a new condition to the protocols, seeking the withdrawal of Armenian troops from Artsakh which was unacceptable to Armenia. Eventually, the protocols fell apart as neither Armenia nor Turkey proceeded to ratify them by their respective parliaments.
Aliyev was successful in preventing a rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey. Now that Aliyev and Turkey have solved most of the Artsakh issue militarily, they have resumed their love fest creating an existential threat to both Artsakh and Armenia.
One hopes that new unexpected developments could revive the old feud between Aliyev and Erdogan, undermining their current close relations.
On November 30, 2020, the Council of Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) of the SCO member states held a videoconference meeting.
SCO Secretary General Vladimir Norov in his speech stressed that despite tough conditions of the coronavirus pandemic, organization members could continue the course to strengthen trade, economic and humanitarian relations by the SCO countries, improve the mechanisms of cross cooperation and increase the international authority of the Organization.
Following the SCO summit held on November 10, the member states confirmed their commitment to joint work to overcome the socio-economic consequences of the pandemic, including a number of important initiatives aimed at establishing direct ties between medical institutions, cooperation in combating poverty, food security, industrial and energy cooperation, the development of digital literacy, as well as support for small businesses.
In this regard, V. Norov, suggested holding preliminary expert meetings for a substantive study of the goals and objectives of the initiatives put forward. He stressed the importance of continuing the practice of holding meetings of the Consortium of Economic Analytical Centers in conjunction with meetings of heads of government, and also noted the initiative to launch a new platform – the SCO Economic Forum.
Andrew Sheng, the expert of the University of Hong Kong’s Asia Global Institute believes, that a focus on developing domestic consumption will be important for China as its economy recovers. “China,” he says, “has come to the so-called Ford moment where if you pay your employees and treat them better, they will buy your national product. Domestic consumption will be a key growth driver for China, but it must be environmentally friendly “.
The foreign expert community summarized that the SCO is an active member of international relations. It makes significant investments in ensuring peace and security, settlement of international and regional conflicts exclusively through diplomacy. The SCO member states advocate the formation of a multipolar world order based on generally accepted principles of international law and equal international relations.
At present, the SCO acts as one of the pillars of the emerging world order. The participating countries will continue the vector and will deepen the political dialogue. Further contacts and cooperation on a wide range of issues with other countries and international organizations that are not members of the SCO are being promoted. At the same time, the number of countries wishing to participate in the SCO is growing every year.
Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan presented on his Facebook page on Nov. 18, 2020 his six-month roadmap of actions he plans to take after the devastating defeat Armenia suffered against Azerbaijan, Turkey and imported mercenary terrorists.
These are the steps Pashinyan intends to take, assuming he stays in power. He has rejected persistent popular demands for his resignation. These are his 15-point plans:
Pashinyan began by stating that “it is time to talk about the ways, methods and programs to overcome the current situation.” He admitted that he is “the main responsible for the current situation” and “responsible for overcoming the situation and establishing stability and security in the country.”
The Prime Minister stated that that his first priority is the “resumption of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process in the format of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs, emphasizing the status of Artsakh and the priority of the return of the people of Artsakh to their places of residence.” By negotiating the ending of the Artsakh War with Russia, Pashinyan had left out the two other members of the Minsk Group of negotiators, France and the United States.
In his second point, Pashinyan repeated the importance of the return of the people of Artsakh to their homes. He added that their damaged houses, apartments and infrastructure should be restored. Thousands of refugees from Artsakh have already returned to their homes not occupied by Azerbaijan. The Armenian Government has paid a negligible amount of compensation to the returnees.
The third point: the “provision of social guarantees for the families of killed servicemen and citizens.”
The fourth point: “restoration of residential and public structures and infrastructure damaged during the war in the territory of the Republic of Armenia.”
The fifth point: “providing social guarantees, prosthetics and professional training for servicemen with disabilities.”
The sixth point: “soonest return of captured soldiers and civilians. Provision of social guarantees for their families. Quick clarification of the fate of the missing and provision of social guarantees for their families.” This should have been priority number one.
The seventh point: “formation of a system of psychological rehabilitation of the individuals who took part in the war and society in general.”
The eighth point: “approval of the Armed Forces Reform Program and launch of reforms.” I hope this includes the modernization of the military by providing it with the latest drones and missiles and establishing an “air shield” or “Iron Dome” over Armenia and Artsakh to protect them from Israeli and Turkish advanced drones acquired by Azerbaijan.
The ninth point: “overcoming the coronavirus pandemic and eliminating its consequences.”
The tenth point: “restoration of the environment for economic activity.”
The eleventh point: “revitalization of programs for solving demographic problems.” This probably refers to a plan to provide incentives for the growth of the population, something Armenia desperately needs, particularly after the sacrifice of thousands of its young men.
The twelfth point: “amendments to the Electoral Code and adoption of a new law on [political] parties.”
The thirteenth point: “introduction of the institute of professional judges as the first step in establishing an anti-corruption court. Implementation of the law on confiscation of illegal property.” This step has already been initiated.
The fourteenth point: “holding regular thematic consultations with representatives of the Armenian political community and civil society.” This step is desperately needed to unify the nation.
The fifteenth point: “conducting regular thematic consultations with Armenian organizations and individuals of the Diaspora. Involvement of Diaspora individuals and structures in the above-mentioned processes.” Regrettably, the Diaspora has been ignored for far too long except when it comes to fundraising. Besides consulting with the Diaspora, there is a need to establish an institutional structure to deal with the Diaspora in a comprehensive and inclusive manner.
In addition, Pashinyan mentioned that he will make changes in the structure of his government. Indeed, several Ministers have either quit or have been removed since this announcement. It is not likely that their removal is going to satisfy those have been calling for Pashinyan’s resignation.
In conclusion, Pashinyan stated that in six months, until June 2021, he will report to the nation about the implementation of these 15 points and “make a decision on what to do next, taking into account public opinion and reaction.” This could mean that Pashinyan is trying to buy himself time to stay in power and calm the public’s grief and frustration. It remains to be seen if he lasts that long and what the results of his plans will be.
I would like to mention now several important points that Pashinyan left out of his roadmap.
The first immediate priority should be the clarification of the vague provisions of the “Statement” that Pashinyan signed with Aliyev and Putin. This should be an opportunity to minimize the losses and eliminate some of the harshest concessions, such as permitting a road through Armenia’s South to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan.
The second priority should be to take all necessary steps to protect the independent status of Artsakh. Otherwise, we risk losing the remainder of Artsakh.
The third priority is the establishment of an investigative committee to review everything that went wrong in the war and to identify those responsible for the grave errors. There have been a lot of accusations of treason or desertion by Armenia’s political and military leaders. However, not a single individual has been charged with any wrongdoing. It is important than this committee or tribunal be composed of non-partisan and highly respected individuals to avoid any cover-up by the government. Due to national security secrets, it may not possible to invite impartial foreign investigators.
The fourth missing point is the elimination of the regrettable division of Armenians into “blacks” and “whites,” meaning pro-regime and opposition factions. The prevailing atmosphere of hatred and acrimony is tearing the Armenian society apart. All sides should condemn the use of hostile and vulgar language to describe fellow Armenians who disagree with them.
Finally, a provisional government of technocrats should be established to oversee some of the outlined points and others to return Armenian society to normalcy. Plans should also be made to disband the Parliament and schedule new parliamentary elections in six to 12 months. Before the election, however, a new constitution should be prepared and a referendum held to adopt its amended provisions which may include electing the President rather than appointing him by Parliament.
All of these steps should be undertaken in an atmosphere of peace and tolerance, regardless of our individual differences, respecting the rule of law and excluding the commitment of violence.
