Category: Authors

There are three reasons why Armenia is in such a state of chaos and confusion:

The first reason is that Armenia, as the defeated side in the war, has very little leverage in the implementation of the “Statement” or agreement signed on Nov. 9, 2020 by the President of Azerbaijan, Prime Minister of Armenia and President of Russia.

The second reason is that since the text of the “Statement” was vague, key details were left out causing uncertainty.

The third problem is that Prime Minister Nikole Pashinyan, as the demoralized head of the defeated side, is in no position to resolve or minimize the damage caused by the war. The reasons for his ineffectiveness are: his failings during the war and his mismanagement and inexperience throughout his tenure as Prime Minister.

The only proper course for Armenia is for Pashinyan to resign on his own free will without any pressures, demonstrations, and ugly confrontations. While it is horrible that Armenia was defeated by powerful outside enemies during the war, it is much worse when Armenians treat each other as enemies. Those who say that no one can replace Pashinyan are insulting the Armenian nation. No one is irreplaceable. There are plenty of competent and intelligent Armenians both in Armenia and the Diaspora who can manage Armenia competently. The new leader should be neither a part of those in power now nor those of the past. The Armenian people will choose Pashinyan’s successor through democratic elections. Armenia needs fresh blood!

Returning to the Nov. 9, 2020 agreement, it is strange that specific deadlines were set for several of its provisions, such as the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the various territories surrounding Artsakh, but point 8 of the agreement, the “exchange of prisoners of war, hostages and other detained persons, and dead bodies” had no specific deadline. Prime Minister Pashinyan should have insisted on a deadline before signing the agreement. Thousands of Armenian families are in an extremely tragic situation, not knowing if their loved ones are dead or alive. Meanwhile, many of the Armenian prisoners of war are being tortured by Azeri officials in contravention of the Geneva Convention. Azeri soldiers have shamelessly videotaped themselves decapitating or cutting off the ears and limbs of captured Armenian soldiers and civilians. This is a continuing war crime which should be presented to international courts.

Armenia and Azerbaijan exchanged a small number of prisoners shortly after the war. The fate and the number of the rest of captured Armenian soldiers remain unknown.

After a lengthy and frustrating wait, the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia finally met in Moscow on January 11, 2021, to take decisions on two key points: 1) the exchange of prisoners of war and hostages; and 2) determination of the final status of Artsakh, according to an announcement made before the meeting by the Armenian Prime Minister’s office.

Shockingly, after the Moscow meeting, a new agreement was signed by the three leaders mentioning only point 9 of the Nov. 9, 2020 agreement: “the unblocking of all economic and transportation routes in the region.” This means that Armenia would be able to use the railway that starts in Northern Armenia, crosses Nakhichevan and exits in Armenia’s South on its way to Iran. Armenia would also be able to use the railway that crosses mainland Azerbaijan, reaching Baku and then Moscow. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, would have a route through Southern Armenia linking Nakhichevan to mainland Azerbaijan. Very short deadlines were set to form high level committees on the transportation routes without mentioning either the exchange of prisoners of war or the final status of Artsakh. Amazingly, Pashinyan announced immediately after the summit meeting: “Today we failed to resolve the issue of prisoners of war, this is the most sensitive issue. We agreed that we will continue [talks] in this direction. I hope we will be able to come to a concrete solution as soon as possible…. Unfortunately, it is impossible to resolve all issues in one meeting.” The Moscow meeting was a second defeat for Armenia.

Pashinyan’s comments should be unacceptable to all Armenians, regardless of whether they support him or not. How could he have sat in a meeting for four hours with Presidents Putin and Aliyev and not insisted on the immediate exchange of the prisoners of war? Two months have passed since the ceasefire? No one knows when Putin, Aliyev and Pashinyan will meet again to resolve this critical issue. This is no way to defend Armenia’s interests, even considering the dire situation of a defeated country. Pashinyan should have made clear at the meeting that priority number one was the exchange of prisoners. Unless it was decided that these prisoners would be exchanged within a few days, he would refuse to discuss any other issue with them. How can Armenia and Azerbaijan discuss the unblocking of transportation routes between the two countries while Armenian prisoners are languishing in Baku jails and tortured? Furthermore, neither the November agreement nor the subsequent Moscow announcement indicated who will pay for the construction of the road and railway linking Nakhichevan to mainland Azerbaijan through Armenia.

While Armenia’s Prime Minister continues to negotiate from a position of weakness, the Azeri side is becoming even more strident; warning Armenia’s leaders not to travel to Artsakh after the Armenian Foreign Minister went there. Azerbaijan insisted that this was a violation of the Nov. 9, 2020 agreement, although there is no such prohibition in the agreement. In addition, Azerbaijan announced that the Armenian prisoners of war would be tried as ‘terrorists’; therefore, not subject to an exchange. Even though Armenia is in a very difficult situation after the war, Armenian leaders have to fight hard to protect the country’s interests as much as possible. The more subservient Armenia’s leaders behave, the more demanding Azeris and Turks become.

Regrettably, Pashinyan seems to have convinced himself that unblocking transportation routes between Armenia and Azerbaijan would boost Armenia’s economy. I seriously doubt this is true. Would any Armenian feel safe traveling or sending goods through Azerbaijan? Who will protect them? More problematic is Armenia’s agreement to allow Azerbaijan a road and railway link between the two countries, allowing Turkey to cross Nakhichevan, and then through Armenia’s Southern region reach mainland Azerbaijan and onwards to the Turkic Republics of Central Asia. This is the century-old Pan-Turanian dream of Turkey which is now about to become a reality. Such a route would undermine Armenia’s sovereignty and endanger its existence. The Armenian people and its government should do everything in their power to block this Pan-Turanian connection. Giving access to Azerbaijan and Turkey to cross Armenia’s territory has absolutely nothing to do with the Artsakh war and such a provision should not have been included in the Nov. 9, 2020 agreement.

I fear that Armenia’s downhill slide will continue as long as the country is ruled by a Prime Minister who is primarily responsible for the loss of Armenian lands and the deaths of thousands of soldiers.

Publisher
The California Courier

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in my last week’s article, I referred to a letter purportedly written by Catholicos Khrimian Hyrig. After my article’s publication, I discovered that the letter was actually written more recently by historian Hayk Konjoryan imitating Khrimian’s writing style and nationalistic views. I regret any confusion that this may have caused.

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Exiled Turkish journalist Cevheri Guven disclosed in a video report the names and activities of three Turkish Generals who had a decisive role in leading Azerbaijan’s war on Artsakh, starting on Sept. 27 2020. It is already known that modern drones and missiles purchased by Azerbaijan from Israel, Turkey and Russia had a devastating effect on Armenia and Artsakh. It is also known that 200 Turkish military advisors and several thousand Syrian mercenaries participated in the war on behalf of Azerbaijan. However, this is the first time that a detailed report is made public about the presence of these Turkish Generals in Azerbaijan during the war.

One of the Turkish military leaders is Lieutenant General Sheref Ongay. The second is Major General Bahtiyar Ersay, and the third is Major General Goksel Kahya. The presence of these Turkish Generals in Baku is linked to the dismissal before the Artsakh War of Colonel General Nejmeddin Sadikov, Azerbaijan’s First Deputy Minister of Defense and Chief of General Staff who had been at his post for 27 years. He was accused of treason and cooperation with the Russian military intelligence, according to Russian and dissident Azeri sources. Sadikov was reportedly arrested after his dismissal which was denied by Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense. However, he has not been seen in public since his dismissal. Sadikov was reportedly born in Derbent, Dagestan, and is of Lezgin origin. He has a poor knowledge of the Azerbaijani language. It is also alleged that his cousin is serving in the Russian Army in Gumri, Armenia. Sadikov was educated in Russia. It is important to note that a large number of Azeri soldiers were sent to Turkey to get their military education. Sadikov did not allow those returning from Turkey to serve in critical military positions. He was opposed to Turkish dominance in the leadership of the Azerbaijan’s Armed Forces. As a result, Turkey asked for Sadikov’s dismissal after which those trained in Turkey were given leading posts.

Returning to the three Turkish Generals, Sheref Ongay is the Commander of the Turkish Third Army, deployed in Erzingan. He was in control of the Artsakh War. Ongay graduated from the military academy in Ankara in 1982 and served in various units of the ground forces. In 2014, he was appointed Commander of the 9th Army Corps. He was for a while the head of the infantry school in Tuzla.

The second Turkish military leader in Azerbaijan, Major General Bahtiyar Ersay, was earlier jailed for being involved in a scandal (Operation Sledgehammer). However, he was pardoned and released, possibly because he made a plea bargain with the authorities, disclosing the names of the other participants in the conspiracy. He was subsequently promoted to the rank of Brigadier General becoming in charge of the 2nd Commando Brigade which fought with great brutality against the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) in Eastern Turkey. He is now the Chief of Operations at the Command of Turkish Land Forces. He stayed in Baku throughout the Artsakh War and personally managed the operations. Before the start of the war, two satellite communication centers were built in Baku and at the military airport of Gabala to contact the soldiers on the ground and the headquarters in Turkey. Both centers were managed exclusively by the Turkish Army. The Azerbaijani military was ordered to obey all commands of the Turkish superiors and not argue with or contradict them. Ersay was in charge of the Syrian mercenaries who had earlier fought in Syria and Libya on behalf of Turkey. Furthermore, Ersay managed the highly technical military equipment provided by Turkey to Azerbaijan.

The third Turkish military man is Major General Goksel Kahya who was in Azerbaijan since July of this year. He is close to the Defense Minister of Turkey. Previously, he was Deputy Undersecretary in the Ministry of Defense. While taking part in the war in Libya on behalf of Turkey, he was captured by the opposition Libyan forces and then released. Kahya was in charge of the Turkish drones operating in Libya which gave him valuable experience in managing the drone war against Artsakh.

Since the end of the Artsakh War, the Azeri public has expressed its unhappiness that Russian peacekeepers are located on the territory of Karabagh. Some analysts have described the Russian presence in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia as a defeat for Turkey and the United States, and a victory for Russia, having located its forces “under the nose of NATO member Turkey.” As Russian online newspaper Vzglyad concluded: Artsakh War’s “plan was Turkish, the Generals were Turkish, and the drones were made in Turkey…. Baku can celebrate victory, but in terms of command and control, Turkish Generals can celebrate victory.”

Retired Lieutenant Colonel of the Azerbaijani Army Oleg Guliyev, now living in Moscow, told the Vzglyad newspaper: “Azerbaijan must fully reclaim Karabagh. This is correct and fair. But we must reclaim Karabagh ourselves. If we reclaim it on a Turkish leash, then we will reclaim only Karabagh, and we will lose the rest of our country.”

Clarification

In my last week’s article, I referred to a letter purportedly written by Catholicos Khrimian Hyrig. After my article’s publication, I discovered that the letter was actually written more recently by historian Hayk Konjoryan imitating Khrimian’s writing style and nationalistic views. I regret any confusion that this may have caused.

Khrimian Hyrig is a highly revered clergyman. But, he is also a great
leader who has given wonderful political advice to the Armenian
nation.

His Holiness was born in Van, Western Armenia, in 1820 and became the
Patriarch of Constantinople in 1869. Due to his nationalistic views,
he was forced to resign by the Ottoman government in 1873. He was then
installed as Catholicos of All Armenians in Etchmiadzin in 1893 and
died in 1907.

Khrimian Hyrig is well-known for his participation in the Berlin
Congress in 1878, hoping to receive from the great powers a decision
to force the Ottoman Empire to establish substantial reforms in the
Armenian provinces. He did not accomplish his objective because
Armenians were powerless. He likened the failed Armenian efforts in
the Berlin Congress to his attempt to eat from a bowl with a “paper
ladle,” while other nations had an “iron ladle.”

The highly nationalistic Khrimian Hyrig exhorted his fellow Armenians
to arm themselves: “People of Armenia, of course you understand well
what the gun could have done and can do. And so, dear and blessed
Armenians, when you return to the Fatherland, to your relatives and
friends, take weapons, take weapons and again weapons. People, above
all, place the hope of your liberation on yourself. Use your brain and
your fist! Man must work for himself in order to be saved.”

Khrimian Hyrig’s wise words are just as valid today, particularly
after the latest disastrous defeat Armenians suffered at the hands of
better armed Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Armenian historian Hayk Konjoryan had crafted a letter written in
Armenian from the perspective of Khrimian Hayrig. Konjoryan’s text is
both politically and prosaically convincing. I have translated the
letter into English:

It is headlined: “If You Have an Independent State in the Future, Do
Everything You Can to Never, Ever Lose Your Independence.”

Here is the counsel that Konjaryan imagined that Khrimian Hyrig would
have given:
:

In the future, I hope you already have an independent state and you
have realized our centuries-old dream. If so, you are now living in
someone’s dream come true; in the dream of millions. I hope you
realize the power of luck that has befallen you.
I would like to know what that dream is like in reality, but since I
cannot see it with my own eyes, let me express my remarks with this
letter. If you read these lines, I will become a part of your present
and my future.
When I went to the Berlin Congress to raise the rights of our people
around the world, only then did I realize that we must first have the
right to have a right. That right is acquired with weapons.
You’ve probably heard of the “iron ladle”. The civilized nations of
Europe, which seemed to us to be law-abiding and fair, gave us nothing
but pity. Russia, which seemed to be a great friend of our people,
other than sympathy, sees and hears nothing but its own interests.
The Armenian people seemed to be like a hungry child outdoors in the
frosty winter, before whom everyone closed the doors of their homes.
The Armenian people were without a care-taker, but the most important
thing I understood was that we should not look for care-takers from
abroad. There, in the future, I am sure, you will not look for foreign
care-takers and you will not pin your hopes on Europeans, Russians or
other states.
If you have an independent state, your only care-taker must be your
own government. I hope the government will not leave you abandoned,
but if it abandons you, what is the point of your independence?
The greatest misfortune of the people is that its own leaders treat
them in the same way as the foreigners. We lived under the yoke of
foreigners for centuries. They treated us cruelly and unfairly. We
sought justice and did not find it. If you have an independent state,
I hope there is justice there.
The Turks treated Armenians very unfairly. Can an Armenian treat
another Armenian the same way? Here, in the past, one of the greatest
tragedies of our people is its ignorance. How can an uneducated people
find their place in this cunning world? The Turkish authorities will
not allow this, as they see their danger in the education of our
people. The greater the education of the people, the more restrained
the government will be.
I devoted my whole life to spreading enlightenment in the Armenian
provinces, but alone I could not do much. If you have a state, educate
our people, spread enlightenment in the provinces. The uneducated
people choose uneducated masters who oppress them and one day the
uneducated people are obliged to choose foreign masters.
At a time when ordinary people are living in the provinces under the
heavy burden of the situation, wealthy Armenians in Istanbul are
living in sheer luxury. They are indifferent to the situation of the
people, as if they were foreigners. The Turkish authorities even ally
with them to keep the people obedient. I hope that the rich in your
country are not so arrogant and are not allied with the bad government
against the people.
In 1876, when the Ottoman Constitution was adopted, the hope for
salvation awoke in us. We thought that the five-hundred-year-old,
infertile and old mother Turkey brought forth to the old world a new,
young constitution, but our hopes were dashed and time showed that
they were beautiful letters written on paper, while the people
continued to suffer. There, in the future, perhaps you also have a
beautiful constitution and laws. I want your laws not to remain on
paper like the Ottoman constitution.
And finally, I want to give you a message. Have ambassadors who
properly voice the demands of the people to the world, and the clergy
will not engage in diplomacy, leaving aside their flock. Have leaders
who love the people, because the Armenian people have suffered a lot
from the hatred of foreign leaders. And never seek foreign
care-takers. And if you have in the future an independent state, do
everything you can to never, ever lose your independence again.

While these wise words were not written by Khrimian Hyrig, they are an
excellent advice to every leader of Armenia and to the Armenian people
worldwide. Ironically, Hayk Konjoryan is a member of the My Step
party, helmed by Prime Minster Pashinyan. Evidently, Konjaryan was
unable to inspire his party leader with what he believed would have
been Khrimian Hyrig’s prudent counsel.

Armenia has numerous problems. But the two most important ones are:

1) Armenia needs to develop a powerful military to fend for itself
without relying on other countries. A weak nation is always subject to
the dictates of more powerful ones, as we witnessed in the recent
Artsakh War. If you are weak, you have no rights and no one cares to
come to your rescue. Unless Armenia becomes more powerful militarily
and economically, it will always be subjugated, particularly since we
are surrounded by vicious enemies who constantly plot our destruction.

2) The next important requirement for our nation is to have a
competent leader, something we rarely had throughout our long history,
and we do not have it today!