Category: Authors

I woke up Sunday morning to the shocking, yet not unexpected, news that the President of Armenia, Armen Sarkissian, announced his resignation while abroad, most probably London, after nearly four years in office.

The President is someone I have known for 30 years. He is a highly-educated man with multiple accomplishments: physicist, computer scientist, successful businessman, diplomat and politician (former Prime Minister and President of Armenia).

Sarkissian, a native of Armenia, graduated from Yerevan State University with advanced degrees in Theoretical Physics and Mathematics. He then became Associate Professor of physics at his alma mater. In 1982, he moved to the UK and became a professor at the University of Cambridge. He subsequently served as the Head of the Department of Computer Modeling of Complex Physical Phenomenon at that university.

In 1991, shortly after Armenia’s independence, Sarkissian became the country’s first Ambassador to London. He served as Armenia’s Prime Minister from November 1996 to March 1997. After recovering from a bout with cancer, he was appointed as Special Advisor to the President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and as a Governor of EBRD from 1998 to 2000. He served on the Dean’s Board and Advisory Board of Harvard and Chicago universities and several prestigious international organizations.

In 2018, Pres. Serzh Sargsyan recommended Armen Sarkissian to the Parliament to be his successor, shortly before current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan came to power who had been critical of his nomination.

Sarkissian became the President of Armenia under the amended constitution which gave him a ceremonial role with no political decision-making power. He had the choice of either approving appointments proposed by Pashinyan and laws passed by the Parliament or submitting them to the Constitutional Court for its determination.

As President, Sarkissian was entrusted with ensuring compliance with the provisions of the Constitution. He had to navigate delicately through Armenia’s highly charged political atmosphere and severely divided society. Despite the limitations of his office, he used his extensive international political and business contacts to promote relations with Armenia and encourage investments from overseas. He visited over a dozen countries, holding high-level meetings during his tenure.

Meanwhile, Sarkissian was subjected to relentless criticism by Pashinyan’s partisans who never missed an opportunity to undermine his reputation and actions. He was also attacked by opposition groups. Much less understandable was the constant drumbeat by conspiracy-minded Armenians who accused him of being a British spy, without any basis of fact. These individuals must have forgotten that Great Britain is no longer a great power. It lost its vast Empire where the sun never set. Nowadays, Great Britain is a country with its multiple political and economic problems, and not in a position to meddle in Armenia’s internal affairs.

During a private meeting I had with Pres. Sarkissian in his office in 2019, he confided to me the constant criticisms and continued attempts to undermine his activities by his detractors.

We all recall that Pres. Sarkissian found out from the following day’s newspapers about Pashinyan signing the statement of capitulation at the end of the Artsakh War on Nov. 9, 2019. Pashinyan did not have the minimum courtesy of letting the President of Armenia know about his grave decision neither before nor after signing that statement.

Pres. Sarkissian tried to overcome the obstacles created by three separate groups: Pashinyan’s partisans in power, the opposition, and the conspiracy-minded crowd. He was severely criticized for objecting to certain orders submitted for his signature by Pashinyan or laws passed by the Parliament’s ruling majority. The biggest outcry was raised in the fall of 2020, shortly after the devastating Artsakh War, when he publicly urged Pashinyan to resign.

In his resignation statement, Pres. Sarkissian complained that he and “sometimes his family are targeted by various political groups. They are not so much interested in the achievements of the presidential institution for the benefit of the country as in my past, various conspiracy theories, and myths. This ‘concern’ for me goes beyond morality, ultimately directly affecting my health.”

Furthermore, in his resignation statement, Pres. Sarkissian pointed out the “paradoxical situation when the President has to be a guarantor of statehood without actually having any real tools. The Constitution also presupposes the supremacy of one institution over another, creates obstacles for well-known Diaspora specialists to participate in the management of state institutions of the historical Homeland, etc…. We are a parliamentary republic in form, but not in content. The purpose of my proposal was not to move from one form of government to another (parliamentary to semi-presidential or presidential), but to create a state system based on checks and balances.”

Explaining his inability to deal with “the current national crisis” in Armenia due to his limited powers, Pres. Sarkissian concluded his statement with a warning that Armenia will find itself “in the margins of history. We have no right to make mistakes anymore!”

According to the Constitution, Alen Simonyan, the Speaker of the Parliament, is now the Acting President until elections are held for a new President, no earlier than 25 days and no later than 35 days from Sarkissian’s resignation.

The Constitution also outlines the process of electing a new President by the Parliament: At least 25% of the Parliament Members has the right to nominate a presidential candidate. Whoever receives at least 75% of the votes of the Members of Parliament is elected President. If no candidate receives 75% of the votes, a second round of elections is held, during which all the candidates who participated in the first round can run. In the second round, the candidate who receives at least 60% of the total number of the Parliament’s votes is elected President. If not, a third round is held, in which the two candidates with the most votes in the second round can run. The candidate who receives the simple majority of the votes of the Parliament is elected President.

The presidential candidate must: Be at least 40 years old, solely an Armenian citizen for the last six years, permanently resided in Armenia for the last six years, has the right to vote, and speaks Armenian. The term of the President is seven years. He or she cannot be reelected.

The new President will be chosen by the Prime Minister’s party members in Parliament as they hold the majority of the seats. My fear is that an unqualified person will be chosen to be the next President just like the other appointments made by Pashinyan, thus confirming once again his preference for partisan politics over national interests. Rather than establishing much needed governmental checks and balances, the choice of a pro-Pashinyan President will further consolidate the absolute power enjoyed by one man, the Prime Minister. He confirmed our worst fears when during his press conference on January 24, 2022, he said: “the President, government, and majority in Parliament must have a political harmony.” In other words, rather than checks and balances, Pashinyan prefers single-handed rule.

I will attempt to provide a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming “Armenia-Turkey normalization talks” on January 14, 2022 in Moscow. Armenia may be bungling these negotiations once again!

— To begin with, Armenia does not need to negotiate with Turkey to have the border opened. Such negotiations took place shortly after Armenia’s independence in 1991, when Armenia and Turkey opened their mutual border, until Turkey shut down its side of the border in 1993. Since Turkey is the one that closed its border with Armenia unilaterally, it can now open it also unilaterally. I fear that Turkey’s intent to hold such unnecessary negotiations is aimed at extorting concessions from Armenia.

— After its overwhelming loss during the 2020 war, Armenia’s defeated leader will be negotiating from a position of weakness. A devastated leader cannot have the mental and moral fortitude to negotiate properly with such a problematic and cunning enemy. New leaders must first come to power in Armenia so they can start the discussions, if necessary, from a non-defeatist attitude.

— There is a fundamental problem with Armenia normalizing its relations with Turkey, a nation that committed genocide, killing 1.5 million Armenians in 1915. A century later, Turkey still lies about its mass crimes and denies their occurrence. An unrepentant genocidaire cannot be a trusted party with which one can negotiate in good faith.

— In addition to its past crimes, Turkey outrageously participated in a new massacre of Armenians, killing and wounding thousands of young Armenian soldiers in the 2020 Artsakh war. To make matters worse, Turkey recruited Jihadist terrorists from Syria and arranged for their transportation to Azerbaijan during the war. How can Armenia’s Prime Minister engage in discussions with an enemy with such recurring hostility? Just imagine if Germany, a country that committed genocide against six million Jews, would attack today’s Israel and kill thousands of Israelis. Do you think Israeli leaders would then sit down with today’s German leaders and negotiate with them as if nothing happened? Every Jew in the world would be up in arms over such a prospect. Armenia’s leaders seem to be oblivious about Turkey’s past and present crimes. They are more than happy to negotiate with the criminals in Ankara with a callous attitude. If the Armenian leaders won’t defend their nation’s rights, how can they expect outsiders to care about Armenia more than them?

— Prime Minister Pashinyan came to power rejecting the rule of former President Serzh Sargsyan with the slogan “Merjir Serzhin” (Reject Serzh). Why is Pashinyan then copying Sargsyan’s flawed policies with Turkey? Armenians in and out of Armenia were up in arms over the previous president’s ill-fated 2009 Armenian-Turkish Protocols. It does not look like Pashinyan has learned anything from that failed experiment.

— “Negotiations without preconditions” is another mantra repeated by Armenian’s previous and current leaders. But the fact is that, rather than Armenia placing preconditions on Turkey, it is Turkey that is advancing preconditions. During the 2009 Protocols negotiations, Turkey said it did not have any preconditions, nevertheless, several Turkish preconditions ended up in the agreement. Pres. Erdogan’s spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin, confirmed such Armenian concerns when he said at the end of December while visiting Chicago: “we want the border to be opened and diplomatic relations to begin. For this, certain conditions must be met and certain issues must be negotiated.”

— The Protocols failed in 2009 because Azerbaijan objected to Turkey opening its border with Armenia. That helped save Armenia’s interests that were supposed to be protected not by Azerbaijan, but by the President of Armenia! The current negotiations may fail also, unless Pashinyan is ready to concede whatever Erdogan asks for. Turkey is now demanding that Armenia accept the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan by signing a peace treaty, thus giving up Artsakh and Nakhichevan for good, and allowing the so-called “Zangezur Corridor,” not just a road, linking Azerbaijan East with Nakhichevan. Finally, if Turkey comes to the table with preconditions, Armenia should be prepared to walk away or counter with its own preconditions: Recognition of the Armenian Genocide, restitution for consequent Armenian losses, and return of occupied Western Armenia.

— Before signing the 2009 Armenia-Turkey Protocols, Pres. Sargsyan made a half-hearted attempt to visit several Diaspora communities ostensibly to hear their views. Pashinyan has made no such attempt. He has not consulted with anyone from the Diaspora. Pashinyan should realize that relations with Turkey are a pan-Armenian issue, not solely a domestic matter of the Republic of Armenia. He should take into consideration Diaspora’s views, even if he is the one who makes the final decision. Moreover, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu recently stated that “extremist groups” in the Armenian Diaspora “should not put pressure on Yerevan,” to disrupt the Armenia-Turkey relations. In addition, Erdogan’s spokesman Kalin said in Chicago recently: “the current Armenia-Turkey normalization process will destroy the Armenian community of the United States.” Such a statement is an unwelcome interference in intra-Armenian affairs. Turkish officials’ unwarranted statements should galvanize all Armenians to reject their unacceptable intervention.

— The qualifications of the person conducting the negotiations on behalf of Armenia are extremely important. Erdogan appointed as Turkey’s negotiator the seasoned diplomat, former Turkish Ambassador to the United States, and notorious genocide denialist Serdar Kilic. Pashinyan, on the other hand, in line with his many other unqualified appointments, named Ruben Rubinyan, a young neophyte with zero diplomatic experience. His only claim to fame is that he is a member of Pashinyan’s political party and Deputy Chairman of the Armenian Parliament. Amazingly, when questioned about Rubinyan’s qualifications, Pashinyan and his political colleagues claimed that Rubinyan’s party affiliation is much more important than his inexperience, thereby putting their party’s interests ahead of that of the nation. Thus, the outcome of the upcoming negotiations is crystal clear since the wolf will be facing the lamb! There must be more competent and experienced Armenian diplomats who can conduct such sensitive negotiations.

— Pashinyan keeps repeating proudly that the leaders of Russia, the United States, and France support his plans to negotiate with Turkey. Let’s not forget that Azerbaijan and Turkey also support this initiative. All of these countries are simply advancing their own interests, not that of Armenia.

— Finally, Pashinyan’s much touted claim of economic benefits to Armenia as a result of opening the Armenian-Turkish border is a dubious expectation. Already, without the border being open, Turkish products have flooded the Armenian market. The opening of the border would mean that the cheaper Turkish products will destroy Armenia’s domestic production. A tiny country with a small population cannot compete with Turkish products which enjoy the advantage of “economies of scale” (higher volume at lower cost). To make matters worse, Pashinyan just threw away the only bargaining chip Armenia had by lifting the temporary ban on the import of Turkish goods, thus depriving Armenia of its trump card in these negotiations.

Turkey, a destitute country with a failing economy, collapsed Lira, 12% unemployment, 36% inflation, and raging coronavirus (7th highest number of infections in the world), is desperate to ameliorate its domestic dismal conditions and mend its damaged ties with the United States, Europe, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. An astute Armenian negotiator, realizing the Turkish eagerness to impress the world, would attempt to extract more favorable terms for normalizing relations with Turkey.

No one opposes negotiations with Turkey as long as the negotiator representing Armenia is a competent person who is able to bring benefits to Armenia’s interests.