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  • Suicide bomb kills 25 Turkmens in Qaragoli tribal leaders meeting in Iraq

    Suicide bomb kills 25 Turkmens in Qaragoli tribal leaders meeting in Iraq

    On the 1st January 2009, 25 people were killed in a suicide bombing in the town of Yusufiya south of the Iraqi capital Baghdad, reported Turkmeneli TV.

     

    About 67 Turkmen Qaragol tribes were also injured in the attack at a gathering of Turkmen Qaragol tribal leaders in Yusufiya, 20km (12 miles) from Baghdad. The Qaragoli tribes are Türkmen tribes that are settled in the region of Baghdad and the province of Alwaset.

     

    The suicide bomber had entered the home of a Sheikh as a council meeting was being held by the Turkmen Qaragol Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah Salih to discuss the election ahead of the provincial polls scheduled for later this month.

     

    A number of tribal elders and leaders on the board of support and Sheikhs from Turkmen Qaragol are reported to be among the casualties. The injured from the blast have been transferred to the Alyermuk Hospital in Baghdad and to the General Hospital of Almahmudiya for treatment.

     

    Mofak Salman

    Ireland

  • Poor Richard’s Report

    Poor Richard’s Report

    Egypt, Turkey: To Warn Israel Of Possible Hezbollah Attack
    December 30, 2008Turkey and Egypt prepared to warn Israel that if a ground operation is launched in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah might open another front in south Lebanon, al-Hayat newspaper reported Dec. 30, citing a Turkish official. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit visited Ankara on Monday and presented Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan with a proposal reportedly detailing a four-point strategy intent on restoring order and ending the Israeli military operation in Gaza.

  • Cyprus Dimension of Turkish Foreign Policy

    Cyprus Dimension of Turkish Foreign Policy

    Cyprus that is located in Eastern Mediterranean has a great strategic importance for European countries as much as other North Africa and Middle East have. Sovereign states made big wars especially to keep the artery of commerce under control and the island was occupied by so many forces throughout the history. (more…)

  • Poor Richard’s Report

    Poor Richard’s Report

    POOR RICHARD’S REPORT                         

    Over 300,000 readers

     2009 Forecasts (Stocks, Bonds etc…)

    The word “billions” is being bandied around every day now. I would like to put this number in perspective before I start my market letter.

                       A billion seconds equals 32 years. A billion seconds ago puts us back to December 1977. A billion minutes ago Jesus walked upon this earth. A billion hours ago was the Stone Age and a billion days ago the earth was being formed. Now here is the scary part: our government spends a billion dollars in a little over 8 hours.

                     My point is that it is going to take a long time to pay down our debt. The consumer is tapped out and they can no longer use their home as an ATM machine. Bankers are worried about their jobs so they are not lending, despite what Chairman Bernanke is doing.

                       I have written in previous letters that we are fighting DEFLATION. Now the Federal Reserve has confirmed it. The best way to combat deflation is to spend huge amounts on many projects. I know that in Hartford, CT much of the inner city’s sewers are brick lined causing cellars to flood after many heavy rains. The problem with this spending is that only 6 cents for every dollar appropriated by the US Government gets to the public within the first year. If the St. Lawrence Seaway was proposed today it would take over 50 years just to get started after all the feasibility studies and lawsuits were settled.

                       Now that home prices are finding their proper level, homeowners are paying down debt to protect their family homestead. Any more rebates will be used to pay down various debts.  Dr. Bernanke has achieved a remarkable feat. The Federal Reserve has been trying to do this for over 35 years.

                   Government bond are yielding what they should.  They are perhaps too low, but they are now reflecting their proper market place. Government bonds are considered risk-less compared to other debt. The reason is simple, they are backed by the US Government and the government is backed by you and me. That’s right. That means us.

     US Treasury bills will trade in the area of .5% to 0%.  This depends on the perceived severity of our world problems. They will be used as a flight to safety.   The long bond, the 30 year Treasury, is now yielding a 2.54% return. As positive events unfold, the maximum yield for the foreseeable future should be at the 3.5% area.

                       The low yields will allow the government, states, and businesses to make long term commitments for basic projects and manufacturing plants. Don’t forget the oil industry either. This is a long term positive.

                       I expect the economy to take a deep dive in the first quarter, but because of our easy money policy, it may level out and gradually improve. It will be a decade before investors will forget about what is happening now. In the meantime, unheard of values will be sprouting like tulips in the springtime. Stocks will not recover as quickly though. The playing field must be leveled. A trader should be 100% cash. Long-term investors can cherry pick in there, because like some preferred stocks, the yields can be very enticing. Remember the rule of  “72”.  Banks operate under this rule also. Take 72 and multiply it by whatever interest rate you are paying and the answer is how many years it will take you to break even on your money.  A 10% rate will take 7.2 years. The average mutual fund is down 44% this year and that does not include the “management fees”. That means it has to move 81% before you can break even. A small (8%) loss can be made up easily. It will take less than a 10% upward move.

                       All debt will (and should) be priced off the comparable US Treasury bond. The higher quality will, and should, have a lower yield than that of speculative debt instruments.  Preferred stocks will have a higher yield and common stocks will yield greater because they are riskier than others.

                       My favorite investment now is AMERCO Preferred A. They own U-Haul and it is listed on the NYSE under the symbol AO PRA. The price at the time of this writing is $18.50 and the dividend is $2.125 and the yield works out to 11%. It can be called away from you at $25.00. If the stock is called away from you your gain will be approximately 30%. This combined with the 11% return cannot be beaten by a common stock in today’s environment. There are still too many investors who expect to invest by yesterday’s rules. They expect to recapture yesterday’s losses by brilliant maneuvers today. Thus, the stock market has not taken its toll yet. The second half of the down leg could be worse for aggressive traders, but values are there for the long term conservative investor with cash. 

                       The US Congress is going to go after the credit card companies by 2010, which will be two years too late. When inflation was first starting and government bond rates were soaring, investors could borrow at the maximum rate of 8% because we had usury laws. Back then they would turn around and buy a government bond yielding 10% and upwards. This was called disintermediation! We are now suffering under reverse disintermediation. It has to be stopped now. They should reinstate the USURY Law today. It used to be referred to as sinful. It is a simple case of money matters versus ethics. You decide.

              The weak dollar helps our balance of payments in the short run and is also positive for precious metals.

              The new SEC Chairman is Mary Shapiro, and there is much talk about her. I want to know what she stands for. I pray that she will bring back the uptick rule. If that was her first ruling the market would soar for weeks as the shorts sellers ran for cover.   I believe she could be positive for the market.

              Deutsche Bank has decided not to redeem its hybrid-capital bonds in January. Other banks might follow with their own bonds. Then again, the Fed might buy them. There is only one debt instrument whose terms are set in stone – US Government bonds.

              The price of oil will stay down for sometime because certain oil countries got too greedy – just like the consumer- and now need every penny they can get. So OPEC can make lofty statements about the price of oil, but certain members and non-members are cheating to “beat the band”. Cartels never last. This could be the year they bust.

              Money market funds will soon disappear in favor of Savings Banks provided they adopt some of the favorable aspects of the funds. No waiting period comes to mind.

              Sub-prime crisis will be fading into the woodwork and it is more than likely that Adjustable rate mortgages will be adjusted downward. The real subprime disaster can be avoided if the banks which did it -eat it.  Enough said.

              THE BIG UNFORESEEN FOR 2009 WILL BE PAKISTAN.     

              Pakistan is a democracy that cannot work because half of the population is in mountainous areas whose tribes belong to ethnic groups in bordering countries. They have Afghanistan to the north and Al-Qaeda seeking safety in their territory. It is like a giant Capture the Flag game. Then, tucked in the southeast corner they have Kashmir, which is seeking trouble between India. They both have Atomic bombs, but India’s work better. It is a rock and lots of hard places. President Bush had Iraq and President Obama might have Pakistan. We can not win a defensive war in Afghanistan. General Petraeus has a real challenge.

              In a crisis there are also opportunities. The free market system has been hit below the belt, but will recover because we are free people. When we make investments we know there are risks, and we can lose. This year we have lost.  The government must set up new rules and umpires to toss out the cheaters. There are banks that grew too fast by acquisition so that they could be “too big to fail.”  Well, they will fail sooner or later because the public knows or will find out and stop doing business with them. They will go where they are treated fairly and politicians who have treated us fairly will be returned to office.

            The Congress must separate brokerage and banking, but allow banks to form syndicates that can compete along with brokerage syndicates. We must not deny a revenue stream to one while favoring the other.

              Executive salaries should be based upon earnings. Year over year gains in earnings should be comparable salary. Declining earnings means a loss in wages. Credit should be given to shareholder dividends versus outrageous bonuses. It should not be how much money you make, but how good you are.

    There should be a global regulation body that would support the general market place with ethics and a passion to make money honestly. Members would be able to trade among them selves, but countries that break rules to suit their own purpose, like Russia, should be sequestered. It should be a private club. Membership based upon integrity and honor.

    Now the real scoop on our next President: on January 21, 2009, please attain a copy of his inaugural address. Then underline every theme and idea he presents. This is his utopian moment and he wants the whole world to know what he stands for. The problem is that many will not listen.

               When events happen and the press wonders what he will do; just go back and reread his address. There you will find the answer. This has worked for every President that I have studied since JFK.

    Cheerio!!!

     

     

    Richard C De Graff

    256 Ashford Road

    Eastford Ct 06242 

    860-522-7171 Main Office     

    800-821-6665 Watts

    860-315-7413 Home/Office

    rdegraff@coburnfinancial.com

     

    This report has been prepared from original sources and data which we believe reliable but we make no representation to its accuracy or completeness. Coburn & Meredith Inc. its subsidiaries and or officers may from time to time acquire, hold, sell a position discussed in this publications, and we may act as principal for our own account or as agent for both the buyer and seller.

     

     

     

  • TURKMEN TERRORIZED BY THE US FORCES

    TURKMEN TERRORIZED BY THE US FORCES

    TURKMEN TERRORIZED BY THE US FORCES
    Mr.Falah Hassan Younis is a Turkmen citizen and a member of the Iraqi Turkmen Advisory Council in Kerkuk who works as a Director of the sub district of Alaiyaziya which is a link to the Turkmen district of Telafer. Currently he is in charge of the district in the absence of its councillor.
    On the 25th of the December Mr. Falah Hassan Younis was summoned by the American forces for a meeting and Mr. Falah Hassan was obliged to attend at the request of the American forces. He attended the meeting with the US forces while he was accompanied by his bodyguards.
    During the meeting with the American counterpart his body guards were disarmed by the American forces as this was backed up by the Iraqi Turkmen Front representative in the Turkmen District of Telafer Mr. Nabil Harbu.
    Mr.Falah Hassan Younis and his body guards were physically abused and beaten badly by the US forces.
    Mr.Falah Hassan Younis and one of his body guards were detained by the US forces whereas the remaining body guards were released. Then both the body guards were handed over to the Iraqi forces in the city of Mosul. As the election approaches in Iraq, they would like to silence the voice of the Turkmen; various steps have been taken by Kurdish parties and American forces to do this.
    However, the Turkmen, Arabs, and Chaldo Assyrians had high expectations of the interim administration established after April 9, 2003. The Turkmen expected to see democracy, fairness, an end to discrimination, the right to self-determination and an end to violence. Unfortunately, the opposite has occurred regarding the human rights situation in Iraq, in particular concerning the Iraqi Turkmen. The Turkmen have been subject to campaigns by the Kurds and the American in Turkmeneli in an often more brutal fashion than carried out on Kurds by Saddam Hussein.
    The arbitrary arrests of the Turkmen citizen Mr. Falah Hassan Younis US force is a clear violation of human rights. They are still detained and being imprisoned by the Iraqi forces and no one knows where they are imprisoned. The most striking thing is that, the detainees have not been given any reason for their arrest and have not been given access for a lawyer.

    Turkmen of Iraq call upon the Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri AlMaliki, Turkish President Abdullah Gul, Journalists Union, all Iraqi and international organizations defending the human rights and freedom to move immediately to the authorities of the Iraqi government at the highest levels for the protection of the Turkmen, Arabs and Assyrian from the Kurdish and American oppression that are carried out under the pretext of fighting of the terrors.

    Mofak Salman
    Turkmeneli Party Representative for Both Ireland and United Kingdom
    [1] Turkmen: The Iraqi Turkmen live in an area that they call “Turkmenia” in Latin or Turkmeneli” which means, “Land of the Turkmen. It was referred to as “Turcomania” by the British geographer William Guthrie in 1785. The Turkmen are a Turkic group that has a unique heritage and culture as well as linguistic, historical and cultural links with the surrounding Turkic groups such as those in Turkey and Azerbaijan. Their spoken language is closer to Azeri but their official written language is like the Turkish spoken in present-day Turkey. Their real population has always being suppressed by the authorities in Iraq for political reasons and estimated at 2%, whereas in reality their numbers are more realistically between 2.5 to 3 million, i .e. 12% of the Iraqi population.
    [2] Turkmeneli is a diagonal strip of land stretching from the Syrian and Turkish border areas from
    around Telafer in the north of Iraq, reaching down to the town of Mendeli on the Iranian border in Central Iraq. The Turkmen of Iraq settled in Turkmeneli in three successive and constant migrations from Central Asia, this increased their numbers and enabled them to establish six states in Iraq.

  • Turkey Confronts a Disputed Period in Its History

    Turkey Confronts a Disputed Period in Its History

    Turkey Confronts a Disputed Period in Its History

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 5 Issue: 240
    December 17, 2008
    By: Saban Kardas
    A group of Turkish intellectuals have taken a bold step to open a public debate on the disputed events of 1915, when the Armenians living in the Ottoman Empire were forced to relocate, leading to the death of scores of people and the beginning of what the Armenians claim was genocide. Turkey officially denies claims of genocide and maintains that both peoples suffered from interethnic conflicts. The group led by leading academics, writers, and journalists, who are known for their critical position on the official Turkish thesis, has initiated a campaign inviting the Turkish people to sign a petition to apologize for the suffering of the Ottoman Armenians.

    Having first collected signatures from other intellectuals, the initiators of the campaign, including Baskin Oran, Ahmet Insel, Ali Bayramoglu, and Cengiz Aktar, started to solicit signatures from Turkish citizens on the internet on December 15 (www.ozurdiliyoruz.com). The website is named “Ozur Diliyoruz” (we apologize). The short and precise petition offers a personal apology yet falls short of demanding the Turkish state to do likewise. The text reads as follows:
      

    My conscience does not accept the insensitivity toward and the denial of the Great Catastrophe that the Ottoman Armenians were subjected to in 1915. I reject this injustice; and for my share, I empathize with the feelings and pain of my Armenian brothers and sisters. I apologize to them (www.ozurdiliyoruz.com).
      
    The text calls on the Turkish people to confront a controversial episode in their history. The organizers say the signatures are a demonstration of the reaction of individual to their historical responsibility. In their view, many Turks’ knowledge of the deportation of Armenians is based on hearsay, and there is an urgent need to offer people an objective account of the events. Although official history presents these events as mutual massacres, according to the organizers, the reality is much different. They believe that Turkish citizens have a right to learn history outside the official theses, and this campaign might be a step in that direction (Vatan, December 4).

    Despite the organizers’ optimism, the campaign has already led to divisions in Turkish society. As soon as the news about the petition drive came out, nationalist forces, the staunchest supporters of the official theses, reacted vehemently against the organizers, as reflected in nationalist daily Yeni Cag’s headline: “Ermeni Agziyla Kampanya” (A Campaign Mimicking Armenians) (Yeni Cag, December 5). Nationalist critics questioned the sincerity of the organizers, charging them with being on the verge of hysteria. In a stark response to the organizers’ call for reevaluating the official Turkish stand on the deportation, nationalists maintained that the organizers lacked a basic knowledge of the actual course of history. For the nationalists, the real victims of the 1915 events were the Ottoman Turks. “Every house has memories of people butchered by Armenians. I regard apologizing to the Armenians as an insult to the Turkish nation. People who call themselves intellectuals have not even been enlightened about their own history,” said Zeki Ertugay, a Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) deputy from Erzurum (Today’s Zaman, December 6).

    The MHP leader Devlet Bahceli was outraged by the campaign and issued a written statement. For him, there was no one to whom the Turks should apologize. “The dirty campaign” was “humiliating,” he said, and reflected the extent of “degeneration and decay” being imposed on Turkish society by so-called intellectuals working as collaborators of outside powers. Bahceli blamed the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government for creating a fertile environment for this situation. He lambasted the AKP’s recent openings to Armenia, because they compromised national priorities and created inside Turkey a pro-Armenian front that worked to undermine Turkish historical heritage (www.mhphaber.com, December 7; www.internethaber.com, December 16).

    Another response to the petition campaign came from a group of retired Turkish envoys who issued a counter-declaration on December 15. Around 50 diplomats, including former undersecretaries of the Turkish Foreign Ministry Sukru Elekdag, Korkmaz Haktanir, and Onur Oymen, maintained that the apology initiative was “unjust, wrong, and damaging to [Turkey’s] national interests.” Their declaration read:
      

    Such a false and one-sided initiative is tantamount to disrespecting our history and betraying our citizens who lost their lives due to the violence perpetrated by terror organizations during the last days of the Ottoman Empire [and] into the Republican era. Although the Armenian relocation, which took place under wartime conditions, resulted in tragic outcomes, the loss and suffering of the Turkish people due to Armenian rebellions and terror attacks were no less than those of Armenians (ANKA, December 12).
      
    The retired diplomats noted that a rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia could not be achieved by such one-sided “compromises,” but what was needed was mutual recognition of each other’s borders and suffering. They went on to challenge the organizers of the petition campaign: “Will there be an apology for the victims of Armenian terror?” Since the Turkish diplomatic corps lost some of its members to terrorism by the Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia (ASALA), the envoys’ sensitivity to this issue can be better understood.

    Although the apology initiative seeks to break taboos, the reactions so far indicate that it might actually re-ignite the controversy and deepen the preexisting divisions. Instead of conversing across the aisle, the parties prefer so far to fortify their dug-in positions on the 1915 events and continue to furnish contrasting “factual” accounts about what took place during that period.