Category: Bruce Tasker

Bruce Tasker is an independent analyst known for his pursuit of investigation of breaches in the World Bank-financed project for the improvement of water and wastewater services for Yerevan.

SCANDAL: MPs caught trying to sell their influence for cash
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‘MPs for hire’ face lobbying clean-up

Cabinet ministers rounded on their former colleagues, including Stephen Byers, Patricia Hewitt and Geoff Hoon, who were caught trying to sell their influence for cash.

Cabinet members have vowed to tighten up lobbying laws

Related Tags:

Geoff Hoon

Patricia Hewitt

David Miliband

ministers

secretary

They vowed to tighten up lobbying laws after MPs including Stephen Byers, Patricia Hewitt and Geoff Hoon were secretly filmed talking to undercover reporters.

‘There is absolutely no room for the sort of innuendo or promises that seem to have been floated in this case,’ said foreign secretary David Miliband.

Chancellor Alistair Darling sugges ted the MPs had been naive to fall for the sting targeting 20 MPs standing down at the next general election.

‘Really, what on earth did they think they were doing?’ he said.

‘The best answer when you get a call like that is to put the receiver back down again – it’s obvious.’

In the footage for Channel 4’s Dispatches programme, former transport secretary Mr Byers described himself as ‘like a sort of cab for hire’ – charging £5,000 a day to pull the strings of movers and shakers. He also claimed to have influenced Lord Adonis in his dealings with National Express.

Former health secretary Ms Hewitt allegedly said she had helped a client paying her £3,000 a day to win a seat on a government advisory group.

And ex-defence secretary Geoff Hoon is said to have offered introductions to current ministers, in return for fees of £5,000 a day.

Mr Byers last night insisted he had ‘never lobbied ministers on behalf of commercial organisations’. He said he had made ‘exaggerated claims’ in the discussions caught on camera.

, 21st March, 2010

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Calls for inquiry into ‘MPs for hire’ scandal

Damian Whitworth, Francis Elliott and Alex Ralph

David Cameron demanded yesterday that Gordon Brown investigate a boast by the former Cabinet minister Stephen Byers that he had used his influence to change policies to favour businesses.

The former Transport Secretary [Lord Adonis], who was secretly filmed offering himself “like a sort of cab for hire” for up to £5,000 a day, will be referred to the parliamentary standards watchdog today.

Mr Byers told an undercover reporter that he had secured secret deals with ministers and said that he received confidential information from No 10 and was able to help firms involved in price fixing to get around the law.

The claims gravely embarrassed Labour, which rushed forward a promise to introduce a compulsory register of lobbying which it said had been planned for the election manifesto.

Thirteen Labour MPs and seven Tories were approached by investigators for Channel 4’s Dispatches and The Sunday Times, pretending to be executives from a fictitious American lobbying firm. The others to feature in the documentary to be screened tonight are Labour’s Geoff Hoon, Patricia Hewitt, Margaret Moran and Baroness Morgan and the Tory MP Sir John Butterfill, who is understood to have boasted about his closeness to Mr Cameron.

Mr Byers was covertly filmed telling the reporter that he would be able to lobby ministers and gave examples of where he had done so before. He said he would charge £3,000-£5,000 a day and claimed he had done a deal with Lord Adonis, the Transport Secretary, to benefit National Express. He later retracted his claims and he, Lord Adonis and National Express all strongly denied any deal yesterday.

All of the MPs filmed, including Ms Hewitt and Mr Hoon, former Cabinet ministers, denied any wrongdoing and insisted that they had breached no rules. “I am confident that any investigation from the Standards Commissioner will confirm that I have always fully complied with the MPs’ code of conduct,” Mr Byers said. “I have never lobbied ministers on behalf of commercial organisations and have always fully disclosed my outside interests.”

Mr Hoon, a former Defence Secretary, reportedly said that he charged £3,000 a day and was looking to turn his knowledge and contacts into “something that frankly makes money”. He said: “At no stage did I offer, nor would I attempt to, sell confidential or privileged information arising from my time in government.”

Ms Hewitt said she “completely rejected” the allegation that she helped to obtain a key seat on a government advisory group for a client paying £3,000 a day.

The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats said they would table parliamentary questions about the claims in an attempt to see if there had been breaches of the ministerial code.

“I have been warning for some time that lobbying is the next scandal to hit British politics,” Mr Cameron said. “These are shocking allegations. The House of Commons needs to conduct a thorough investigation into these ex-Labour ministers.”

He said that the Prime Minister “would want to get to the bottom of the accusations being made about his Government — and real change is needed”.

Senior Cabinet ministers distanced themselves from their former colleagues.

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, said it was “ridiculous” that the MPs had been caught out in the sting. “The best answer when you get a call like that is to put the receiver back down again. There are rules about serving MPs — we’ve said that we are going to have to get a statutory-backed code of conduct to deal with former ministers. But really, what on earth did they think they were doing?”

David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, said that he was “appalled” and added: “There is absolutely no room for anyone to trade on their ministerial office.”

Research by The Times shows eight former ministers have made up to £370,000 in outside work of various kinds since announcing they would be stepping down as MPs. They include John Prescott, John Reid, John Hutton, Alan Milburn and Ms Hewitt. Mr Prescott, former Deputy Prime Minister, has made up to £166,000, mostly through television documentaries and his autobiography.

, March 22, 2010

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[4]

MPs’ foreign visit rules breached

Hundreds of breaches of parliamentary rules by MPs who accepted free overseas trips from foreign governments have been uncovered by a BBC investigation.

More than 20 MPs broke rules on declaring hospitality in questions or debates after visiting locations such as the Maldives, Cyprus and Gibraltar.

Between them, the MPs – from all the major parties – breached parliamentary regulations on more than 400 occasions.

One former standards watchdog says it shows MPs cannot regulate themselves.

Some MPs dismissed the breaches as technical errors or oversights.

However, the former Commissioner for Standards in Public Life, Sir Alistair Graham, told the BBC repeated rule breaches threatened to “undermine the integrity” of the democratic system.

He said it “demonstrated the failure of the self-regulating system of discipline in the Commons” and called for a shake-up of the way MPs’ behaviour is monitored.

“This is a very worrying situation which will further demean the standing of Parliament,” he said.

BBC home editor Mark Easton, who led the investigation, said it would raise further questions about the Commons’ ability to regulate itself.

The rules on overseas visits are there to ensure that no-one can accuse MPs of accepting foreign hospitality in return for political favours, for example pressing the UK government for financial assistance.

They require MPs to register such visits and then declare relevant trips in questions, motions or debates.

One of those who appears to have fallen foul of the code of conduct is Labour’s Andrew Dismore, a member of the Commons Standards and Privileges Committee – the very body which polices MPs’ behaviour.

He broke rules more than 90 times, following annual visits to Cyprus, by failing to declare the hospitality when raising issues about the island in Parliament.

In total, he has tabled more than 200 Commons questions about Cyprus since the last election in 2005, on topics such as missing persons from the island and its victims of past conflict between Turkey and Greece.

The Commons information office estimates it costs on average £149 to answer a written question.

Mr Dismore has also signed motions and led debates about Cyprus. However, he denies any wrongdoing and claims his questions about Cyprus were not sufficiently relevant to his trips to require a declaration.

Conservative David Amess has admitted failing to register a free trip to the Maldives – regarded as a “very serious” breach of the rules by the Committee on Standards and Privileges, according to the MPs’ code of conduct.

He also accepts he did not register a second trip for almost a year, blaming an administrative error by his office staff.

‘Paradise’

During a debate he tabled about the Maldives in 2007, Mr Amess told the Commons how his “splendid visit” had given him “an early taste of paradise”.

“No words can describe adequately just how beautiful the islands are,” he added, before suggesting the UK Government “could be encouraged to do a little more than is being done at the moment” for the islands in the Indian Ocean.

Despite leading two debates about UK support for the Maldives and asking 15 questions about the islands, he failed to declare an interest. Referring to the MPs’ code of conduct, Mr Amess told the BBC: “It is for the member to judge whether a financial interest is sufficiently relevant.”

Liberal Democrat Norman Baker, who has been actively calling for a clean-up of Parliament following the expenses scandal, has admitted breaching the rules on 37 occasions.

In a statement to the BBC, Mr Baker accepts he failed to declare an interest when leading debates and tabling questions about topics such as human rights in Tibet. He has travelled to India twice, courtesy of the Tibet Society and the Tibet government-in-exile.

“I should have then declared a relevant interest in respect of the parliamentary activities you list,” he said. “It is an unintended oversight that I did not.”

The MP who heads the Commons Public Administration Select Committee, Tony Wright, told the BBC that such rule-breaking was “unacceptable” and that the system should be more transparent.

“Declarations should be the norm. It is quite proper for MPs to go on visits. Some of those visits will be financed by foreign governments. But… if they’re lobbying on behalf of governments who have paid for their visits, then clearly we need to know about it.”

The rules are enforced by MPs themselves. Breaches are only investigated if a formal complaint is made and there is no independent body to ensure that members stick to the regulations.

Shadow defence secretary Liam Fox has admitted breaking the rules on two occasions, having visited Sri Lanka five times in the past three years courtesy of its government. He failed to declare the hospitality when asking ministers how much UK aid had been given to Sri Lanka.

In a statement, Mr Fox said: “I should have noted an interest and will be writing to the registrar to make this clear.” He blamed a “changeover of staffing responsibilities” for registering one of his visits more than two months late.

During the current Parliament, Gibraltar’s government has funded 31 trips for MPs to attend an annual street party on the territory.

Street party

Labour’s Lindsay Hoyle has been a guest at these National Day Celebrations three times. Following his visits he has asked 30 questions, tabled three early day motions and signed a further seven, all without declaring his interest.

Mr Hoyle also broke the rules by failing to declare an interest following registered trips to the Cayman Islands and the British Virgin Islands.

“I have never received or sought any financial benefit,” he told the BBC.

Conservative Andrew Rosindell has been a guest of Gibraltar’s government twice in recent years. He subsequently asked 48 questions and signed or sponsored nine motions related to the territory without declaring an interest.

Thirteen of his questions about Gibraltar were before a visit had been registered. The BBC put the matters to Mr Rosindell but has yet to receive a response.

The BBC has identified a further 10 MPs from all three major parties who have been guests of Gibraltar’s government and shortly afterwards breached rules when signing motions or tabling questions about the territory.

The investigation has also identified three more Labour MPs and another Conservative who failed to declare an interest following visits to Cyprus.

MPs who have breached the rules:

David Amess

Norman Baker

Crispin Blunt

Graham Brady

Colin Breed

David Burrowes

Andrew Dismore

Jim Dobbin

Alan Duncan

Liam Fox

Mike Hancock

Lindsay Hoyle

Paul Keetch

Bob Laxton

David Lepper

Andrew Love

Madeline Moon

Mike Penning

Andrew Rosindell

Richard Spring

Theresa Villiers

Rudi Vis

DECLARING FOREIGN TRIPS
- Any MP who has an overseas trip paid for by a foreign government must register it within four weeks
- They must declare a financial interest if it “might reasonably be thought by others to influence the speech, representation or communication in question”
- This includes when tabling questions, motions, bills or amendments, and when speaking out during Commons proceedings
- Members may not, for example, call for increased UK financial assistance to the government which provided the hospitality
- Q&A – MPs’ foreign trips rules
ANALYSIS

By Mark Easton, BBC home editor

The point of the regulations is to ensure that a sceptical citizenry can be confident about the integrity of their elected representatives.

Transparency is key.

The whole system only works if members take this responsibility seriously. Declaration doesn’t imply wrongdoing, but a failure to declare might be interpreted that way.

The widespread abuse of the system uncovered by our investigation suggests some Members of Parliament don’t understand this.

But what really struck me as I conducted the investigation is that the system of scrutiny surrounding the rules clearly does not work.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8580183.stm, 22 March 2010

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March 22, 2010
Levon Ter-Petrossian’s – Mayday, Mayday

May Day is a pagan ritual which marks the end of the colder winter half of the year in the Northern hemisphere, and it has traditionally been an occasion for popular and often raucous celebrations – ‘regardless of the locally prevalent political establishment’. But not for Levon Ter-Petrossian, his Mayday was more akin to the Mayday associated with the emergency code word used internationally as a distress signal by ships and airplanes in radio communications; derived from the French venez m’aider, meaning ‘Come Help Me’; the Mayday used to signal a life-threatening emergency by groups such as police forces, pilots, fire-fighters, and transportation organizations – and LTP.

Yesterday, LTP’s Armenian national Congress (ANC) liner was visibly in distress, suffering relentless buffeting from an Armenian regime which terrorized and killed itself into office; which runs a state-imposed lawless society, holds democratic opposition supporters in prisons, and bullies and beats correspondents who try to tell the story. LTP has finally been trumped by the ‘Flying Ace’ which Kocharian has for years kept tucked up his sleeve and which Sargsyan now flaunts with his international partners-in-crime; the ace of capitulation – on Karabakh and on Genocide.

Nevertheless, the regime had prepared well for a potentially massive turnout, which might have been the case. But, according to Levon Zurabyan, vehicles bringing LTP supporters to the meeting from outlying regions were turned back in traditional regime style by security services at the city limits brandishing automatic weapons. In contrast, outgoing vehicles were encouraged to take their Mayday holidaymakers to tend their plots of land in the countryside.

So LTP had fewer passengers than for previous voyages, with the business class notable in its absence. They are distancing themselves from LTP and jumping off his democracy liner, now looking for a Sargsyan lifeboat, in the hope that after regime cronies have finished pillaging the multi-billion dollar [economic rescue] Genocide /Karabakh ‘Sell-Out’ package, the leftovers will help to rescue their small and medium business enterprises. The three thousand or so economy class passengers left on board were seeking cover in whatever sheltered place they could find, realizing they were doomed to go down with the ship and its captain. Riot police were on display in abundance as usual, with bus loads of reserves waiting in the surrounding streets, to make sure nobody jumps ship.

The Turkish press was eager to quote the international AFP, which rushed to report on how LTP announced to his 3,500 supporters that he and his Armenian National Congress are “in favor of the soonest settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations and is ready to support all positive steps.” On this occasion, the Armenian press came to rescue, with Onnik Krikorian, one of Armenia’s last ‘independent’ photo-journalists, using his Global Voice to report the truth of the matter and including the following:

“In a damning indictment of Armenia’s rapprochement with Turkey, opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosian accused President Serzh Sarkisian on Friday of scuttling U.S. recognition of the Armenian Genocide and gaining nothing in return …… We are left to conclude without the slightest exaggeration, that for the sake of prolonging his rule, Serzh Sarkisian has literally ‘Sold Out’ the Genocide. “His next step will undoubtedly be a ‘Sell-Out’ of Karabakh, after which he will become the first Armenian to win the Nobel Prize.”

Unfortunately there is now little hope for an LTP rescue effort, a multi-billion dollar carrot, backed by the power of the international propaganda machine, has succeeded with its ‘Weed Revolution’ for Armenia.

The international community has happily fallen for the Kocharian / Sargsyan ‘Flying Ace’, hailing marvellous Sargsyan achievements with Turkish and Azerbaijani relations. The European Union started the bidding and gambled the virtues of democracy, the rule of law and human rights. But realizing that Sargsyan was not fooled by the bluff, it instructed PACE to throw in the hand, and they joined Sargsyan as co-conspirators.

America then upped the anti with a billion plus dollar cash WB/IMF bet, a calculated bid to draw the ‘Flying Ace’ and knowing it had a win-win situation. Upping the stakes would either call the Sargsyan bluff, with the US collecting the pot, or US losses would be recouped by Obama reneging on his promise to recognise the Armenian Genocide on the 24th April.

Moscow put in its half billion dollar bid in typically shrewd Russian style, reminding the Armenian party that in the event of losses, they would be covered by previous Russian / Armenian agreements. Turkey and Azerbaijan stayed in the bidding with promissory notes, watching the major players jockey for position. Then the US threw in its billion dollar hand and Obama reneged on his Genocide promise as planned.

The players have been at the table for months on end, each ready to back out in return for resolving its problems in the Caucasus. The EU and the US were happy to cut and run to leave the three former Soviet players to finish the game, each hoping that Turkey, which has been picking up strong cards along the way, will not come up with a hand to trump them all.

Armenia still has a better-than-even chance of raking in the entire multi-billion dollar pot; all it has to do is to call the Turkish Azerbaijani bluffs and pick the right time to throw down its Karabakh card. The Republic will then be endowed with an internationally installed bandit regime, which for many generations to come will dictate life in Armenia – and all for the sake of a treacherous Armenian capitulation on Karabakh, which unfortunately included an even more shameful ‘Sell-Out’ of the Armenian Genocide.

In typical style, whilst Diaspora Armenians have been lobbying overseas, Armenians in the Republic have been subserviently watching on as this process moves into its final stage. The fifty or so thousand Karabakhis are up in arms, determined to defend their rights in the light of this Kocharian / Sargsyan ‘Sell-Out’. But there is little hope that they will be able to stop the capitulation roller-coaster, when Armenia’s regime unilaterally withdraws its troops from five of the surrounding territories, egged on by Bryza and his Minsk associates and rubber stamped by the EU.

The tale goes that when the Azerbaijani Defense Minister asked his President if he was prepared to take Karabakh by force, Aliyev answered – “Are you crazy, there are fifty thousand of them”. The Defense Minister answered but we are a country of eight million and our army is several times larger in number than the entire Karabakh population and we have spent billions of dollars on the latest military equipment. Aliyev replied: “But two Karabakhis took over Armenia single-handed and now they own the Republic. Imagine what fifty thousand of them will do to us!”

After the Sargsyan ‘Sell-Out’, Turkey and the rest of the international community will be pleased that that anecdote is now the reality. Unfortunately, it is the reality with which Armenia now has to live – and Armenia, you can blame absolutely nobody for it – except yourselves.

May 4, 2009
Turkey – Only in a Tank!
That was the retort from a leader of one of Armenia’s coalition parties, when in 2004 he was asked whether Armenia should resolve its differences with its western neighbor; the person who promised to release details of his 2004 Parliamentary Commission studies of grants, credits and humanitarian assistance, former Deputy Speaker of the Armenian National Assembly, Vahan Hovhanissian.

In 2004, Vahan Hovhanissian’s Parliamentary Commission found corruption worth $200 million dollars, at a time when the total Armenian state budget had just increased from $400 million to 600 million dollars. But he reneged on his promise to release the details to the Armenian people, so his rating plummeted and the party’s reputation suffered another setback. The Dashnak Party had long been hanging on to Kocharian’s apron strings, so Hovhanissian was put up as Republican Party fodder in the 2008 Presidential election to allow the apron to be passed on to the Dashnaks arch enemy Serzh Sargsyan.

Vahan has since parked his tank, and together with his fellow party leaders, for the past few months he has been sneaking toward the Turkish border, ‘Cap-in-Hand’, eagerly awaiting his pickings from the compensation package Sargsyan and Nalbandian have negotiated for their ‘No Pre-conditions’ capitulation with Turkey.

That was until the 27th April, when Dashnak Party leaders eventually decided they could no longer stay in Armenia’s Government coalition, ostensibly betrayed by their leader, Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan.

Vahan Hovhanissian, Armen Rostumian, Kiro Manukian, Hrai Karapetian, and other Dashnak Party leaders have long known of the deal their President and his MFA Nalbandian have been clandestinely negotiating for Turkey to open (or maybe not to open) the Armenian border. But they have been silently sitting back and waiting for the ‘No Pre-conditions Roadmap’ to be finalized. Public knowledge of a signed 22nd April ‘Genocide Sell-Out Memorandum’ was the straw which broke the Dashnaks party back in the Sargsyan coalition; they could no longer reasonably explain their collusion in such treachery, especially with such opposition outrage and probably under pressure from Genocide lobbying Dashnaks in the Diaspora.

But with regard the signed memorandum, the Dashnaks should not blame their President Sargsyan, the blame for that has to go to America’s President. Assurances of a ‘warming relationship with Turkey’ would no longer hold water for the honest and well-intentioned Barac Obama, not even from the President of Armenia. Only a signed document would have sufficed for him to renege on his Genocide promise to the people of Armenia, so that is what he and his administration demanded – and got.

The signed document came in the form of the Nalbandian – Babacan ‘No Pre-conditions Roadmap’, which officially remains under wraps. But snippets of the details can be found through Turkish, Russian or other international media, even Azerbaijan – but certainly not from Armenia.
- First non pre-condition: Armenia will agree to Turkey’s commission, or a number of commissions, to study Turkish / Armenian affairs, not excluding Genocide.
- Second non pre-condition: Armenia will ratify the Kars agreement of 1920, formally withdrawing claims to historic Armenian lands in the east of Turkey.
- Third non pre-condition: Armenia will agree to Azerbaijani demands on Karabakh, including withdrawal of troops from the surrounding territories.
- Fourth non pre-condition: Armenia will not have an embassy on Turkish territory, but diplomatic relations will be conducted through Tbilisi.
- Fifth non pre-condition: Turkey will determine if and when the border will be opened, possibly starting with one day each month.
The Nalbandian – Babacan ‘Roadmap’ will no doubt motor on unhindered by the Dashnak Party departure, and Armenia’s coalition will probably be more relieved than distraught by the Dashnak Party loss.

But whilst the Dashnaks did little good in the coalition, they could well do considerable harm out of it. If the Dashnak Party effort goes towards regulating the out of control Sargsyan regime, then there may be the hope of a better future for Armenia. But if the Dashnak Party continues collaboration with its Kocharian / Sargsyan mentors, and its capabilities and influence are directed toward frustrating the efforts of Armenia’s only real opposition leader, Levon Ter-Petrossian, and his National Congress, then the Dashnak Party will seriously harm the chances of a more democratic future for the Republic and add yet another disgrace to its already badly tarnished reputation.

Bruce Tasker
Armenian Parliamentary Analyst
April 28, 2009
Armenia’s Dashnaktutsiun Party leaves Government coalition

Could it possibly be true that Armenia’s Dashnaktutsiun Party has decided to leave the Government coalition and join the opposition?

PanArmenian reports that that was the only issue on the Dashnaktutsiun 25th April agenda, when the party apparently also resolved to resign from their ministerial positions. If so, this is a decided blow to Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan’s plans to continue along his ‘roadmap’ with Turkey, and could even mark the beginning of the end for his illegitimate regime.

The Armenia / Turkey dispute must of course be resolved as should the Karabakh issue with Azerbaijan, but the clandestine manner in which the process has been conducted by the Armenian authorities to date has been absolutely unacceptable. If this article can be believed, it seems the Dashnaks could have decided enough is enough.

PanArmenian is however an Armenian state-backed media organization, so this information could simply be the Republicans throwing a cat amongst Armenia’s already flighty opposition pigeons, to buy time whilst Sargsyan and Nalbandian crawl their ways out of the political ‘roadmap’ fallout. That could well be the case, as PanArmenian also released an article “ARFD to launch an internet protest campaign against Armenian-Turkish agreement”, which actually refers to a petition published, not by the Dashnaks, but by the highly popular Canadian Diaspora website ‘Keghart’.

April 26, 2009
Has Turkey Traded Genocide for Karabakh?

With Turkish / Armenian negotiations reaching a peak, the focus of attention is moving from the wider debate to petty bickering over who said this and who said that, the inevitable outcome of a process in which a country’s leaders discuss fundamentals of agreements with their international counterparts then hide the truth from their domestic audience. The Armenian negotiating parties, President Sargsyan and MFA Nalbandian, have unashamedly deceived the Armenian public with respect to their year-long negotiations on Karabakh and Genocide. Today, they would have the Armenian public believe that Turkey has suddenly introduced pre-conditions for opening the border, an untrue statement and particularly alarming as it came immediately after discussions with the US President in Turkey, which surely must have led to a common understanding between Turkey, Armenia and the US. True, the Turkish side did change its position after Obama’s trip to Turkey and re-introduced Karabakh as a pre-condition. But in contrast to Armenia, Turkish reports on its position have been consistent, in Ankara, in Baku and in Yerevan.

Turkey resolutely denies that the hostilities involving the slaughter of Armenians in the early 20th century amounted to Genocide and each year it spends considerable resources to defend its position, especially in the US. This year Turkey’s leaders spent several months and went to extraordinary lengths to avoid US recognition, realizing the new US President and most of his senior administration supported Armenia’s claim of Genocide. That is understandable from a Turkish perspective. But it is disturbing that the Armenian negotiating parties have not added their voices to the Armenian lobby for the US to recognize Genocide, but understandable, as US recognition would put a stop to the plan they have been doing all they can to keep from the Armenian public. Sargsyan and Nalbandian have been ‘warming to the Turkish proposal to establish a commission of historians’ and they have said so on several occasions, not for the good of the Armenian Republic, but in pursuit of personal gain.

On April 6th and 7th, Turkey was host to the US President, first in Ankara then in Istanbul, hailed as the highlight of Obama’s European tour. Several weeks prior to the Obama visit, Turkey announced that it had removed the Karabakh issue from its list of pre-conditions for opening the Turkish / Armenian border, seemingly infuriating Azerbaijan, but clearly a tactical move to demonstrate Turkish acquiescence in a ‘warming relationship’ with the Armenian administration and part of Turkey’s concerted effort to avoid what seemed to be an inevitable US Genocide recognition. The Obama trip went according to plan with the US and Turkey singing each others praise. But for Armenia, whilst Obama confirmed his personal position had not changed, he avoided using the word Genocide.

Armenia’s MFA Nalbandian decided not to travel to Ankara to meet with US President Obama on the 6th April as planned, but he eventually managed to find time on April 7th in Istanbul. He returned to Yerevan bristling with confidence of an imminent border opening and assuring the Armenian public that he and his President would do nothing to jeopardize a possible US recognition of Genocide. In fact, they had already done their damndest to jeopardize a possible US recognition of Genocide, they had announced that negotiations with Turkey were developing well and they anticipated an early opening of the Armenian / Turkish border – possibly in April. Under these circumstances it would have been confrontational for Obama to talk about Armenia’s ‘Genocide’ in Turkey and he would have been blamed for spoiling the Turkish – Armenian reconciliation process.

Nalbandian had barely finished his press conference in Yerevan, when Turkey announced in Ankara, Baku and Yerevan that it was to re-introduce Karabakh to the border-opening list of pre-conditions, a seemingly provocative move, especially after the Obama visit and only two weeks prior to a much anticipated 24th April Obama declaration on Genocide in the US. The Turkish move completely contradicted Nalbandian’s statement, plus many such Nalbandian statements in the run-up to Obama’s trip to Turkey. Sargsyan responded in Yerevan, accusing Turkey of suddenly introducing hitherto unknown pre-conditions, although pre-conditions have been known and documented throughout the nearly year-long negotiation process, and neither Sargsyan nor his Minister of Foreign Affairs had ever explained in Armenia how they had been resolved. However, the ‘newly introduced pre-condition’ did not dampen Sargsyan’s enthusiasm and he re-confirmed he would be travelling through the newly opened border on his way to watch football in Turkey this October.

From this somewhat implausible chain of events, it is presumably to be believed that President Gul had a change of heart after negotiations between President Obama and Armenia’s MFA Nalbandian; that he decided to slap the well-intentioned face of his most powerful strategic ally by revoking on this critical and most sensitive of issues. If true, that would surely invoke US recognition of Armenia’s Genocide on the 24th.

Of course not, Turkey’s President Gul would never concede on the Genocide issue, knowing that 90 percent of the Turkish population is opposed, and at a time when his ratings had plummeted in a keenly contested democratic election. The conclusion can only be that Obama left Turkey thankful and relieved that Turkey and Armenia had agreed to resolve the Genocide issue between them, through Turkey’s commission of historians, or some other such mechanism. Armenia’s President Sargsyan is on record as saying he has no ambitions with regard the historic Armenian lands in the eastern part of Turkey, so only the Karabakh issue needs to be resolved for him to travel through the border in October this year, and Bryza’s opinion is that Karabakh will soon be resolved.

Armenia’s former President Kocharian has been preparing his deal on Karabakh for several years, held back firstly by the lack of an acceptable Azerbaijani compensation package, and secondly his nerve to commit to the deal, knowing he would face the backlash from an angry Armenian public. Kocharian waited his time and supported Sargsyan as his successor on the understanding that Sargsyan, when President, would go through with the agreement he dare not sign.

However, in the same way that Turkey would never withdraw its support from Azerbaijan with regard Karabakh, Azerbaijan is equally committed to supporting Turkey on Genocide. In July 2008, seeing that Sargsyan was determined to finalize the Kocharian deal on Karabakh, the Azerbaijani / Turkish allies joined forces and threw Genocide into the equation, knowing the self-imposed illegitimate Sargsyan regime would jump at the chance of adding to the package of compensation it was demanding in return for one of Armenia’s very few state assets left after Kocharian’s eight years of pillaging – Karabakh.

In August 2008, the Georgia conflict prompted Moscow to force the pace of negotiations, so Medvedev dangled a $500 million carrot; then the World economic crisis presented the opportunity for the US to throw a billion or so more dollars into the pot, conveniently facilitated by the World Bank and the IMF. Now half the World is on tenterhooks, waiting the next episode in this most unsavory Caucuses conflict resolution saga, which is due this 24th April in New York.

The Kocharian / Sargsyan Karabakh ‘Ace’ has already been played several times with the EU and PACE to chock up the illegitimate Sargsyan Presidency. Soon it will be played for the last time, to draw massive compensation in return for a beneficial agreement for Azerbaijan on Karabakh and for a Turkish commission of historians to finally eliminate Armenia’s claims of Genocide.

Turkey and Azerbaijan will have solved their longstanding problems with Armenia, the US will have been relieved the burden of Genocide recognition, Russia will see additional political clout and economic benefits in the Caucuses, and the Sargsyan / Kocharian regime will have a compensation package worth several billion dollars.

The vast majority of Armenians will be hoping that the US president stands by his promise and formally recognizes the Armenian Genocide this 24th April; in the longer term it will be beneficial to all parties concerned. Otherwise the Kocharian / Sargsyan regime will be having to cope with the backlash in Armenia, after having sold Armenia down the river with their ‘Karabakh / Genocide Deal’.

April 20, 2009
Sargsyan – A Year of Deception

Armenia’s President Sargsyan convened a Friday 10th April news conference to celebrate his first year in office, when he labored for two hours and forty minutes articulating rehearsed answers to sixty prepared and vetted questions from dozens of hand picked state-backed news reporters. The answers did not always match the questions, but his general drift was to hail his amazing achievements, especially the wonderful way in which he has dealt with the burdens of the externally imposed crisis.

Not surprisingly, one of the most keenly followed topics was the Armenian / Turkish negotiations, to which Sargsyan explained that he and his MFA Nalbandian could have possibly been mistaken. Local and international press agencies have been busy reporting Sargsyan’s calculation that talks may end in failure – “because the Turks are now adopting a different position and trying to set preconditions”.

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It is surprising that after so many months of this Sargsyan subterfuge, the numerous news organizations still prefer to steer clear of Sargsyan’s continued deceit of the Armenian public. His statement completely contradicts the actual truth, presumably an attempt to salvage some credibility from his despicable misdealings with this most sensitive issue and in the process, wrongfully accusing his Turkish counterparts of changing their position.

The nearly year long Sargsyan / Nalbandian program of deceit has been comprehensively reported through a string of articles on khosq. In particular, 22 weeks ago the “Karabakh /Genocide – The Final Countdown” article included links to how Eduard Nalbandian continued his efforts to Establish Turkey’s Long-Awaited Independent Commission and how he Derided those Countries which have Already Recognized Genocide, with complete contempt to the Armenian cause.
20 weeks ago the “Karabakh/Genocide – The Deception” article linked to a diplomatic source who said Armenia was to announce the establishment of a Joint Committee of Historians to study the events of 1915. Sargsyan later stepped back from the ‘Genocide Commission’ by saying: first, let our joint border be opened and diplomatic relations constituted, then we can establish commissions, sub-commissions and sub-sub-commissions for any issue. He then re-manoeuvred to say the formation of a commission to investigate the Armenian Genocide is unnecessary and he referred to an “Intergovernmental Process”, which can be established later. Sargsyan’s compliance with another of Turkey’s conditions is also on record, he has publicly announced that he has no ambitions with regard lands in the eastern part of Turkey, and it is well known that he is pursuing his ‘Karabakh Deal’ with equal enthusiasm and in the same deceptive manner.

Turkeys President Gul, Prime Minister Erdogan and MFA Babacan, in total contrast to persistent lies from senior representatives of Armenia’s illegitimate regime, have been absolutely consistent with regard their requirements to open the Turkish / Armenian border, which to repeat includes: 1) resolution of the Genocide issue; 2) Armenia withdraws claims to lands in the eastern part of Turkey, and; 3) the Karabakh issue be resolved under agreement with Azerbaijan. Turkey did withdraw the Karabakh issue from its list for a short period in early 2009, plainly a temporary measure to de-link Karabakh from the sensitive Genocide issue in an understandable effort to dissuade US President Obama from saying the ‘G’ word in the period leading up to Armenia’s 24th April Genocide Memorial Day. That danger has no doubt now been resolved in Turkey’s favour, with backing from the Armenian regime, including a Nalbandian meeting and a Sargsyan telephone discussion with Obama during his 6th / 7th April trip to Turkey. Turkey has since re-established the link with its close Azerbaijani ally and put the Karabakh requirement back on the table.

Through the past months the Armenian regime has repeatedly intimated to the overseas audience that they are ready to comply with Turkey’s demands to open the border, whilst at home Sargsyan and Nalbandian have been feeding repeated untruths to the Armenian public. The process has been well documented by the Turkish and other international media organizations, but Armenia’s state-backed press fails its readers by simply presenting regime untruths verbatim. There should be no doubt that when the 24th April has passed and Obama has not uttered the ‘G’ word, Sargsyan and Nalbandian will return to the pursuit of their self-serving ambitions with Turkey and Azerbaijan, irrespective of the better interests of the Republic and its people – starting with establishment of the commission of historians.

The alternative is to lose the massive compensation package promised – by Turkey, Azerbaijan, the US, Russia and the EU, a loss which Armenia’s bandit regime will not stomach.

Bruce Tasker
Independent Analyst

April 15, 2009