Author: Olga Malik

NATO Summit shows Erdogan’s turn to the West

The NATO Summit held in Vilnius, Lithuania, last week was mostly about Ukraine’s joining the club. As a result, and a new NATO-Ukraine Council was established to help boost cooperation.

However, there is one more important aspect on the Summit results that deserves attention is the role of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who gave the green light to Sweden to join NATO.

Fresh and full of energy after the re-election, Erdogan seemed to meet everyone and be everywhere during the Summit and demonstrated his strong commitment to further collaboration with the West.

To the surprise of many, the Turkish leader, after years of blocking the Sweden’s efforts to get a NATO membership, this finally shook a hand of his Swedish counterpart. Certainly, Erdogan got a decent reward for his decision – hours after his vote for Sweden’s joining NATO the U.S. approved a supply of F-16 fighter jets delivered to Turkey.

For the first time since entering the White House, U.S. President Joe Biden also met his Turkish counterpart. Despite the relations of the two countries has been frosty recently due to Erdogan’s sharp comments towards the U.S., the European Union and the Western values in general, this time the Turkish leader seemed to have chosen the right tone to break the ice and described his American counterpart as “my dear friend” when giving his comments to the media.

But with the surprise comes some disappointment, too. Some experts believe, Erdogan showed that he was buckling under the West’s pressure. Before the summit, the entire Islamic world looked at him as the leader of Great Turkey with a stern stance to the Islamic values. But in fact, he changed his mind about Sweden and went along with it. The Turkish people were proud of their President for his steadfastness, character and ability to keep his word, but in fact he once again has shown he does not live up to expectations.

Playing different cards with opposing sides has become a signature of the Erdogan’s policy. However, changing mind and sides often results with ending up with nothing.

July 21, 2023
NATO Summit: dispelling myths of the Ukraine’s carte blanche to join the alliance and understanding Erdogan’s tricky strategy

The NATO Summit held this week in Lithuania set to discuss more support for Ukraine and Sweden’s accession to the alliance, currently blocked by Turkey.

Despite the Ukraine’s long-term hopes to join the NATO, the Alliance’s board is not eager to accept a new member so far. President Joe Biden told CNN that Ukraine is not yet ready for NATO membership, saying that the question can be considered again once the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends. According to the U.S. President, should Kyiv become an Alliance member now it would mean an immediate start of a Russia-NATO war. But there are some other reasons beyond this official agenda. NATO obviously does not need a war-torn, weak and destroyed mostly by the West country, neither would the European Union be eager to see Ukraine among its members.

Ironically enough, Zelensky looked like an uninvited guest at the party adding even more shame to himself by thanking the NATO members for agreeing to consider Ukraine’s NATO membership once the Kyiv’s conflict with Russia is over.

Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Zelensky deserves NATO. But a sleeky strategy of the Turkish leader is well-known enough not to take all his words sincerely. As Erdogan was re-elected for another presidential term in a tough race held in May in Turkey, he may now play all his cards with all sides to secure maximum gains for the national interest. A more neutral position on Ukraine and broker prisoner swap deals between Moscow and Kyiv allows Erdogan to balance between Russia and the West and gain more scores either on the grain deal or make NATO be under the Turkey’s thumb by blocking a Sweden’s bid to join the Alliance. Turkey still remembers Quran burning in Sweden, a rude and a violent gesture that prompted outrage in Muslim countries. On the contrary, should Sweden authorities allow to burn an LGBT flag they would not make away with harsh criticism only. However, after closed-door negotiations between NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and the leaders of the two countries ahead of a NATO summit in Lithuania Turkey has agreed Sweden to join NATO. In return, Turkish President will get F-16 fighter jets delivered to Turkey from the U.S. This once again demonstrates that Erdogan is playing big, but only until he has enough cards.

July 13, 2023
Russia develops long-term ties with UAE and Turkey in a highly polarized world

Russia’s largest economic forum (SPIEF) held in St. Petersburg on June,14 – June, 17 has resulted in strengthening ties with the two strategic partners – the UAE and Turkey.

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, while on a working visit to Russia, held a meeting with Vladimir Putin at the SPIEF.

“I am pleased to be here today with you, your Excellency, and we wish to build on this relationship and we put our trust in you to do so,” Sheikh Mohammed told Putin.

According to Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, “for the UAE, this is a “calculated risk” it is willing to take, part of the Gulf nation’s policy of de-escalation and dialogue in an increasingly polarized world”.

“This polarization has to be broken”, – he added. “[UAE President] meets a lot of Western leaders, it is also important for him to hear from President Putin to be able also to support the international community’s collective effort, in order to go beyond the current polarization,” Gargash said.

Meanwhile, Alexey Sazanov, Russia’s Finance Minister Deputy, said that Moscow is now seeking new opportunities to strengthen economic and trade ties with UAE, Turkey and Malaysia. Among highly debated issues is a dialogue to make double taxation agreements with these countries more flexible.

At the beginning of 2022, the UAE Ministry of Finance announced the introduction of federal corporate income tax at a rate of 9% from June 1, 2023 for medium and large businesses. For companies with a profit that does not exceed 375,000 dirhams ($102,000) per year, the rate remains zero. The changes also did not affect charitable organizations, investment funds, state corporations and enterprises engaged in the extraction of natural resources.

Meanwhile, Turkey received the Russia’s SPIEF delegation in Istanbul in May, 2023.

During the meeting, SPIEF Director Alexei Valkov, Professor Ahmet Kasim Khan and IC Holding CEO Murad Bayar made presentations, discussed Russian-Turkish economic relations, strategic cooperation and investment opportunities.

“Today, diplomatic and trade relations between Russia and Turkey reflect a long-standing friendship that persists despite the prevailing political circumstances. It is especially worth highlighting the economic potential of Russian-Turkish relations, which represents significant commercial opportunities in the market,” said Professor Ahmet Kasym Khan.

June 18, 2023
Turkey’s strategy reveals Erdogan has built a house of cards, not an Empire

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrives for the G20 of World Leaders Summit on October 30, 2021 at the convention center “La Nuvola” in the EUR district of Rome. (Photo by Alberto PIZZOLI / AFP)

The year of 2023 might become perhaps the worst time for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his political career. Being harshly criticized for his foreign policy due to balancing between the West and Russia, making accuses towards the U.S. (the Turkey’s main strategic partner) and sticking to the NATO at the same time, Erdogan’s internal policy is also close to ruins.

The Erdogan’s failure to response to the earthquake that hit the Turkish northern territories and killed more than 35 000 people is on the top of the presidential election campaign agenda. The Turkish leader is accused by opposition for hailing some of the housing projects that crumbled, killing thousands of people. According to some construction experts, contractors were allowed to skip crucial safety regulations, increasing their profits but putting residents at risk. The video, taken during a campaign stop ahead of Turkey’s March 2019 local elections, Erdogan mentioned new housing for the city of Kahramanmaras (also called as Maras), near the epicenter February’s quake, as one of his main achievements.

“We solved the problem of 144,156 citizens of Maras with zoning amnesty,” Erdogan said, using his term for the construction amnesties handed out to allow contractors to ignore the safety codes.

The earthquake-damaged territories mostly inhabited by Kurds, have always been an epicenter for Turkey’s internal policy. Having been oppressed by the Turkish ruling party for years for the activity of the local PKK party (Kurdish Working Party, considered as a terrorist organization by the Turkish government), these territories faced a revealed connivance of authorities towards housing construction that adds even more oil to the flame that’s discrediting Erdogan’s policy among locals.

But in his foreign policy Erdogan has been even more uncompromising for several years. Having demonstrated his Ottoman Empire’s ambitions, the Turkish leader has managed to make enemies almost from all his partners and near-located countries. Harsh and uncensored accusations towards the West, an aggressive imperial policy towards some Middle East and Northern African countries, unstable position towards the Ukraine’s crisis have earned Erdogan a reputation of one of the most untrusted leaders.

As one Turkish saying goes, “One can trust a Turk after 40 days of his death”, Erdogan seems to having done everything to prove this. Sadly, there seems to be almost no time to recover from it before the May,14 presidential elections. Unless the people’s trust will again be bought.

March 14, 2023
Afghanistan under Taliban needs Constitution as never before

Photo cfedit: Bangkok Post

As the world economic and diplomatic order is dynamically changing, Afghanistan is playing a more important role in the game change. A transit center between Pakistan, Central Asia, Russia and Europe, today Afghanistan is a strategic logistic corridor and a player in a new export and import relations.

For instance, Russia is on the way to adopt the idea of recognizing Afghanistan under Taliban. The facts speak for themselves: the opening of the Afghanistan Embassy in Russia with the Taliban’s “chargé d’affaires”, the
Kremlin’s invitation of the Taliban delegation to the 25th anniversary “St. Petersburg International Economic Forum ”, which took place from June 15–18, 2022, the negotiation process between the Taliban and the then government of Afghanistan, which took place in Moscow in 2019 etc. But all this does not mean recognition of the Taliban government by Russia.

The first step towards an active and qualitative change in Taliban Afghanistan would be the development and adoption of the main law – the Constitution. The presence of a new constitution is a necessary condition for the Afghan state to become a player in the world arena as such a move determines the framework for the development of any state.

However, there are a number of difficulties in this matter, and the first of them is the fragmentation and clan structure of power within the Taliban, there are a number of groups with different leaders.

To solve these issues Afghanistan first of all has to adopt a number of basic principles such as to turn the government system into the Islamic republic with strong presidential power; to update its territorial structure, e.g.to adopt a decentralized unitary state, or a constitutional national federation. Consequently, a representative body will be needed to resolve issues between autonomies. Finally, regions should be enlarged and “national” autonomies should be formed (while maintaining the division into regions within autonomies) without the right to secede from Afghanistan, the capital Kabul should become a city of federal significance – a separate administrative unit that is not part of any national autonomy.

Russia, as the epicenter of acceleration process to turn the world to East, should contribute to the moderate transformation of the Afghanistan under Taliban, with a view to its further recognition in the international arena. However, there are a number of difficulties that will need to be addressed, ranging from humanitarian to religious and military issues. The process does not promise to be easy, but the security of the Russian Federation depends on the results of the work.

September 29, 2022
Azerbaijan sell arms to Ukraine

Despite the news about the Ukrainian army’s progress, the United States continues to use its full potential to provide Kyiv with more weapons, in order to ensure the continued confrontation of the Russian army and prevent Moscow from achieving its goals in its special military operation.

Washington confirms that it does not supply weapons to Ukraine indiscriminately, e.g. the quality of weapons is “accurately calculated”. However, these criteria are determined by Ukrainian military attaches deployed in Ukrainian embassies around the world. The weapons are later circulated within the lists of weapons of interest to the Ukrainian army before obtaining them through international intermediaries, and then transferred to the territory of Ukraine and used against the Russian army.

This mechanism is carefully organized and carefully. Washington is interested in buying Soviet weapons, given that the Ukrainian forces and militias participating in the fighting there are experienced in using this type of weapons.

The latest American attempt took place in Azerbaijan’s Baku, where an agreement was signed between an organization that belongs to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense and an intermediary European company close to Washington to supply a group of Soviet weapons to Kyiv.

The details reveal that this company is of Spanish origin called “SDLE”, which is an abbreviation for (Star Defense Logistics Engineering S.L), this company works under the supervision and funding of the American Intelligence Agency (CIA). The offer also included a plan to visit the military facilities in Azerbaijan to inspect the supplied weapons and the agreement from the Azerbaijani side to provide the Spanish company with weapons schedules, quantities and prices. The third country which will be used to transfer the weapons to Ukraine is likely to be the Czech Republic.

According to the information, the deal between the Spanish company and the Azerbaijani “Device” industrial organization was signed on June 23, 2022 and amounted to about $78 million.

As for the type of weapons, according to what the deal data shows, they are “Kornet”, “Victoria”, “Concura” and “Fagot” anti-armor missiles, in addition to “Strela” anti-aircraft missiles, and other light and heavy weapons.

The signing of the deal was attended by two representatives from the Azerbaijani side, the director of the “apparatus” Mammadov Azer and his deputy, Khadyrov Elgar. The buyer’s side was represented by the CEO of the Spanish “Star Defense” company, Estrella Aurelio Jesus, in addition to the representative of the company, Zuhur Rashid.

The information says that Azerbaijan has “transit” depots in Jordan with a large number of weapons, valued at about $500 million. Yet, it is not known whether these weapons will be launched from there or not.

The Spanish company is achieving remarkable growth in the field of weapons, and it also aspires to diversify its military activity. Being a provider of military systems, it is now investing in the military sector and looking forward to designing and supplying more complex military systems.

US officials have previously admitted on more than one occasion that their country is sending secretly obtained Soviet equipment in order to enhance the capabilities of the Ukrainian army in confronting the attacks of Russian forces. Though The Pentagon refused to disclose the size of its unknown arsenal of Soviet weapons, but Washington had previously kept some Soviet weapons in its warehouses, and was able to enhance them through similar deals with countries seeking to renew their military arsenal or aspiring to obtain American ones. In return for the supply of Soviet weapons to Ukraine.

The relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan is currently considered to be good. Due to the personal relations between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev, Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation has been strengthened over the recent years. The ongoing war in Ukraine today is likely to become a test for trust and sincerity of the countries that call themselves as allies and friends.

July 22, 2022