Author: Olga Malik

Can the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group solve the Afghan crisis?

Despite the grim picture of turmoil and instability that has emerged in Afghanistan since the Taliban came to power, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has demonstrated a unique ability and efforts to resolve the Afghan crisis. As a regional organization, the SCO has shown interest in Afghanistan since its creation in 2001, primarily because the country’s stability affects its members, such as Pakistan, India, China, Russia, Iran and the Central Asian region. In this regard, in 2005, the SCO-Afghanistan contact group was created. Its main objectives are to establish dialogue with Kabul, combat security threats in the region, drug trafficking and organized crime, as well as contribute to the restoration of a peaceful, stable and economically prosperous state. However, as violence in the region escalated and US influence grew following its invasion in the country, the Contact Group lost its relevance and was disbanded in 2009.

Afghanistan received observer status in the SCO when President Hamid Karzai visited China in 2012 and signed the SCO counter-terrorism protocol in 2015. In 2018, Afghanistan officially reaffirmed its commitment to combating terrorism, extremism, drug trafficking and economic cooperation. The Afghan Contact Group was revived in 2017 and held annual meetings before the Taliban took power.

Today, during a period of global economic and political instability and conflicts in the Middle East, the revival of the activities of the SCO-Afghanistan contact group is more relevant than ever. Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative will allow China to fill the economic and political power vacuum.

Uzbekistan, a member of the SCO, also plays an important role in dealing with the Taliban because many Uzbeks live in Afghanistan, although they are persecuted. Turkmenistan takes a neutral position, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan take a wait-and-see position. Tajikistan supports the pre-Taliban government and hosts Afghan refugees and politicians.

The differences between India and Pakistan regarding Afghanistan could not be more serious. India was the last regional stakeholder to reach out to the Taliban, while Pakistan has friendly ties and influence with the previous and current Taliban regime.

Some of Afghanistan’s most pressing problems fall outside the organization’s mandate. Recognition, sanctions and humanitarian assistance are the responsibility of the UN.

More than 90% of Afghans are at risk of starvation. The SCO’s response to the humanitarian crisis was country-specific. For example, India sent medical aid and a shipment of wheat in collaboration with the World Food Programme. So far, $2.4 billion has been raised, less than the $4.4 billion requested by the UN.

The Taliban regime has violated its commitment to establish a representative and inclusive government. Restrictions on women’s freedom and human rights have threatened recognition, humanitarian assistance and access to frozen assets.

The situation is complicated by disagreements between SCO members at present. However, the revival of the activities of the SCO-Afghanistan contact group would contribute to the solution to the Afghan crisis in a more targeted and organized way, not within initiatives of a single SCO member country.

November 12, 2023
Canadian Parliament honors Nazi: is it a fatal mistake or a regular pattern?

Debates and questions are still in the air after veteran Yaroslav Hunka who fought for the Nazis during the Second World War was invited into the Canadian House of Commons to mark Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit. A 98-year-old Nazi veteran received a standing ovation in Canada’s Parliament and he was also called a hero, who “fought for Ukrainian independence against the Russian aggressors then, and continues to support the troops today”.

However, it later emerged that Hunka used to be part of a Nazi military unit known as the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS organisation, which was involved in killing thousands of innocent people. The SS 14th Waffen Division was also known as the First Ukrainian Division. The unit was made up of Ukrainian volunteers from Galicia, a region that’s changed hands several times throughout history and has been a part of both Poland and Ukraine. The unit was under Nazi command and its members pledged allegiance to Adolf Hitler.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expressed the regret about the “terrible accident”, but stressed that the country’s authorities “continue to stand incredibly strong with Ukraine in its fight against Russia”. Indeed, the Trudeau speech did not look like the apology, but rather like a chance to remind that Canada would continue support Ukraine and fight against the “Russia’s aggression” by any possible means.

Moreover, the Canadian experts and historians later tried to excuse Parliament’s mistake saying it is not possible to say whether Hunka was involved in the massacre without examining historical records. In 1985, Canada determined that being involved with the division wasn’t a war crime on its own, though people who were involved could still be prosecuted for specific brutalities.

Yet, neglecting of unforgivable crimes of the Nazi is becoming a regular pattern for Canadian authorities. Only a week later after the “Hunka case” Canadian authorities apologized for nominating former SS fighter Peter Savarin for the highest state award back in 1987. Savaryn died in 2017 and as part of the constitution of the Order of Canada his award was automatically rescinded. He was also awarded Golden Jubilee and Diamond Jubilee medals, and Rideau Hall is considering whether those can be rescinded.

The recent “mistakes” of Canadian Parliament show that the country did not learn the historical lessons and have taken the wrong side of the history. So have current Ukrainian President Zelensky who greeted Hunka with the ovation. An effort to excuse Nazi crimes only to show unsolidarity with Russia would lead to more than fatal consequence than anyone in Canadian Parliament can imagine. By fighting fascism the world paid the greatest price which can hardly be carried once again.

October 9, 2023
Russia’s East Compass and the shadow of Kim Jong-un

On September 10-13, Russian Vladivostok hosted the Eastern Economic Forum -for the eighth time. This year, the international component of the EEF has come to the fore: Business in Southeast Asia is showing an active interest in any projects and is ready to participate not only in dialogue.

Main focus: new economy, trade and logistics

Politicians, businessmen and journalists from 50 countries came to Russky Island this week. According to the tradition, the Forum started on September,10 with the “Falcon Day,” during which the authorities announce the agenda of a global program for the conservation of gyrfalcon population.

The next day was devoted to the main business program of the Eastern Economic Forum started. One of its key events was a series of sessions entitled “International cooperation in a changed world.” Here Russian business discussed the peculiarities and potential of building relations with colleagues from Southeast Asia. The dialogue between the countries has taken a very serious turn in the recent years: this year, China strengthened its position in Russian market for passenger cars, cell phones and televisions. In general, the volume of trade with China alone jumped by 40% in the first half of 2023. And the total investments of this country in Russia, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, as of May, amounted to $165 billion.

Among the main goals of the Forum was to establish contacts with Eastern partners within specific projects, so the forum became a platform for a dialogue with China and Asian countries.

Much attention was paid to increasing trade turnover with Asian countries and creating favorable conditions for this, including expanding logistics routes, modernizing existing corridors for the movement of goods and creating new ones.

New old friends

Some foreign and Russian sources reported on a possible visit to Russia by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who was supposed to meet with V. Putin and discuss issues of cooperation in the military sphere. But the main purpose of his visit is negotiations with Vladimir Putin on arms supplies. In return, North Korea wants to receive modern technologies for the development of a nuclear submarine fleet.

However, the visit of the North Korean leader was not confirmed.

September 14, 2023
The USSR Aviation heritage in Afghanistan is at risk to get lost

The Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defense holds an enormous aviation park that includes planes and helicopters made in the USSR which require maintenance. Among them are such plane models as the “Antonov” and the helicopters “Milya”.

After the Taliban grabbed the power in the country, the USSR aviation heritage has become of a particular interest to many Russian and foreign companies that provide the maintenance of planes but do not have a proper license for it. Indeed, the only Russian organization that is authorized for the maintenance of aviation vehicles located out of Russia is the National Aeronautics and Space Council (the NASC). It has a broad experience of recovering of planes and helicopters made a few decades ago and is licensed to carry out repairs of the certain models of planes, such as “Antonov” and “Milya”.

The Afghanistan’s military and political elite is interested in proper maintenance of its aviation park. Yet, the new government is often manipulated by non-licensed and fraud contractors which are aimed at getting the access to the USSR aviation heritage in Afghanistan and selling it out. The current Russian-Ukraine conflict is one more reason of why this issue is so important now. The military operations and conflicts are the perfect time for those who are eager to get most benefits from valuable military assets.

With the Taliban grabbing the power in Afghanistan in 2021 the country has been walking through a rocky path. The current group in power can hardly hold the country in peace and stability. Lack of management and political experience of the Taliban are beneficial for external parties. The current situation with the USSR aviation heritage is another example of it. Afghanistan like never before needs to raise an internal dialogue with all sides interested in saving the country’s future.

September 12, 2023
The future of Afghanistan: can a political dialogue save the country’s ethnic communities?

With the Taliban grabbing the power in Afghanistan in 2021 the country has been walking through a rocky path. Ethnic communities have suffered most of all as the new people in power pursue the policy of Pushtunization forcing out Tajiks, Uzbeks and other ethnic communities from the governance board.

Such policy has inevitably led to social inequality in the country and formed a more aggressive opposition movements while the appeals from the international community to form an ethnopolitical and inclusive government are being ignored by the Taliban. As the country today has no alternatives of the power other than the Taliban, the current power can hardly be called legitimate. To make the Taliban be recognized on the international level and to defrost gold and forex assets of the former Islamic Republic the new government has to form the inclusive Cabinet and to start an internal political dialogue.

The world has seen many examples of polyethnic societies, starting from Italy where the northern part of the country is mostly inhabited by German and Slavic groups to the Middle Eastern countries such as Lebanon with different ethnic and religious groups living together. However, should the government pursue an anti-polyethnic policy, it will likely collapse in a time course as ethnic communities residing in the country might start a mutiny aimed at forming independent Republics or governments.

In Afghanistan, millions of lives depend on the chosen course of the interim government. The Taliban’s newly formed Cabinet fails on principles of inclusivity and has been rejected either by ethnic communities or even Afghan people residing in the country. To keep the country in peace and stability the newly formed authorities have to stop keeping people in fear and poverty. This issue has also been alerted by the United Nations and other representatives of the international community.

Feel free to leave your comments below to start a discussion.

August 25, 2023
The Russia – Africa Summit: what Moscow has to say

The Russia-Africa Summit, to be held on July 27-28 in St. Petersburg, is supposed to follow the agenda of the previous meeting in 2019 and promote a global dialogue between the countries of the African continent and Moscow. However, the conflict in Ukraine and recent events around it have shifted the focus of the agenda. Apart from plans to look at prospective areas for cooperation, African politicians have prepared a number of questions for the Kremlin. Among them is how long the Russia’s military operation is going to keep affecting the well-being of their countries which are already far enough from being prosperous. Moscow promises to give its partners the necessary clarifications, and in some cases even compensate for the costs.

By holding the first Russia – Africa Summit in 2019, Moscow expected to start long-term and systemic relations with the continent and encouraged African leaders to discuss cooperation in various fields. However, with the international mainstream media accusing Moscow of inspiring the global food crisis and a number of countries breaking the trade and economic relations with Russia, this year the Summit’s main card will be played around the grain deal.

Meanwhile, prior to the meeting in St. Petersburg, Ali al-Moselhi, the Egyptian Minister of Internal Trade and Supply said that Cairo was dissatisfied with Russia’s withdrawal from the deal with the UN on the grain export. Zambian Foreign Minister Stanley Kakubo also expressed concerns, saying that the grain deal was “a lifeline for the most countries in need”, and its termination would result in serious consequences. The Summit participants will likely try to convince Moscow to reconsider its decision and release Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea ports. After all, regardless of potential recipients and volumes of the Ukrainian grain supply, it is important that its presence on the world market contributed to decreasing prices for this product. Russian President Vladimir Putin on his turn assured his African partners that Moscow is able to replace Ukrainian grain either on favorable terms or even at no charge at all since a record high harvest is again expected this year in Russia.

Should Russia keep its promise, this gesture will be far beyond generous. Unprecedented sanctions that have been imposed on Moscow since the start of the military operation in Ukraine and are being tightened with each new package, have also a negative impact not only on Moscow, but on other countries, including Africa. Common trade routes are being frozen, so are most of international transactions which keeps many regions away from lifesaving supplies of food and resources.

One of the decisions could be the case of China. Having built a sustainable economy, Beijing has switched to non-dollar transactions with many countries including Russia. The Russian economy has also demonstrated sustainability and a relative growth despite harsh sanctions and the military operation that requires big costs. By staying independent from external resources and goods it is high time for Moscow to develop new paths for international partnerships.

July 27, 2023