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KABUL—The fragile peace deal between the United States and the Taliban appeared to hang in the balance Wednesday as the U.S. Defense Department announced its first airstrike against Taliban forces in 11 days and bitter disagreements between the radical Islamist movement and the Afghan government, as well as internal divisions in Kabul, threatened to nullify the pact.
People throughout the nation were holding their breath, caught in a limbo between fear and hope, as new violence erupted in a country long torn by civil war. Both U.S. and Afghan officials suggested that the Taliban were violating the pact despite an unprecedented telephone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Taliban political leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar on Tuesday, after which Trump said the two had agreed there would be “no violence.”
In a series of tweets, Col. Sonny Leggett, the spokesman for U.S. forces in Afghanistan, said the Taliban had conducted 43 attacks against Afghan national forces on Tuesday alone. In response, he said. “The US conducted an airstrike on March 4 against Taliban fighters in Nahr-e Saraj, Helmand, who were actively attacking an #ANDSF [Afghan National Defense and Security Forces] checkpoint. This was a defensive strike to disrupt the attack. This was our 1st strike against the Taliban in 11 days.”
Meanwhile Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, his own future in dispute not only because of the Taliban, who want an interim government established, but because of a challenge from his election rival, Abdullah Abdullah, has cast doubt on the deal. The pact, which was signed by Baradar and U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad on Feb. 29, stated that the United States would “work with all relevant sides on a plan to expeditiously release” Taliban prisoners, with the release date determined ahead of March 10, the planned beginning of direct talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government. But Ghani said there was “no commitment” to freeing the prisoners.
Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said in a tweet on Monday that the deal will not go ahead unless the prisoners were released. An estimated 10,000 captured Taliban members are being held in Afghanistan, and around 5,000 Taliban prisoners were to be released in exchange for 1,000 political prisoners from the government’s side.
Trump said that 5,000 U.S. troops would leave Afghanistan by May and he was ready to meet Taliban leaders in the near future.
But as a result of the impasse, some observers believe the scheduled date for “intra-Afghan dialogue,” as the agreement terms it, will be pushed back. “The prisoner exchange issue could delay intra-Afghan talks,” Shaharzad Akbar, the chairperson of Afghanistan’s Independent Human Rights Commission, told Foreign Policy.
“It is surprising that there wasn’t a full understanding on this issue between the U.S. and Afghan governments prior to finalizing the U.S.-Taliban deal. This illustrates the difficulty and messiness of this process and the remaining ambiguity regarding the real and expected role of different actors at each stage.”
The Taliban—who don’t recognize the Afghan government’s legitimacy—have since declared they will again take up weapons against Kabul (while refraining from attacking U.S. forces and targets) after a weeklong reduction of violence that had been expected to continue, with Ghani declaring that the objective was to “turn it into a cease-fire.”
On Tuesday, while visiting Afghanistan’s eastern Nangarhar province, Ghani once again addressed the Taliban, saying that killing other Afghans is a crime. “You have made peace with the foreigners, so what does your jihad mean now?” he asked. But Taliban officials say their “jihad” will continue.
The Afghan National Defense and Security Forces said they were ready to “respond forcefully” to possible Taliban attacks. Scores of people have been killed since the signing of the deal, with the Afghan National Army reporting at least 16 soldiers killed in the northern province of Kunduz.
Austin Scott Miller, the senior U.S. general in Afghanistan, said in a statement Monday that the reduction in violence ahead of the deal signing was intended as a confidence-builder. “We’re very serious about our obligations and we expect the Taliban will be serious about their obligations. The United States has been very clear … the violence must remain low,” Miller said.
Afghans throughout the country are voicing their usual tense mixture of hope and fear. “The U.S. troops leaving worries me,” said Zarifa Ghafari, the mayor of Maidan Shahr, the capital of Wardak, a province with large parts occupied by the Taliban. She said she didn’t feel optimistic about the group’s possible integration into the government.
“The Taliban are still a group of terrorists. Giving them a chance to come back, on top of American soldiers leaving within 14 months is not good news. I hope the international community will protect the future as well as social, economical, and political progress in Afghanistan. As a woman, I am looking at a dark future with the Taliban in power.”
Ghafari’s concern is echoed by many Afghan women. While the atmosphere in Kabul had been relaxed and hopeful during the week of reduced violence, the situation has tensed up, with many people swaying between hope and worry, frustrated that violence has resumed across the country.
“The resumption of violence by the Taliban is concerning and not conducive to the atmosphere of upcoming talks, but it is also not surprising,” said Andrew Watkins, an analyst at the International Crisis Group. “As an insurgent movement, the group draws most of its political leverage from the threat and use of violence.”
Afghanistan’s war has been deadly. In the last year alone, over 10,000 civilian casualties were recorded by the United Nations, including at least 3,403 civilians killed. Since the start of the U.S.-led invasion in 2001, more than 3,500 U.S. and coalition troops have been killed.
Saturday’s deal has been seen as a beginning to the end of America’s longest war in history, and both the Taliban and the United States say they remain committed to it. Afghanistan’s government, that hasn’t yet been part of the negotiations has described the deal as “an important step in the peace process.”
Although the disputes over the prisoner exchange and the government’s divisions could potentially delay the start of intra-Afghan negotiations, the International Crisis Group’s Watkins said he was still confident that the deal will hold.
“It doesn’t seem as if it’s already breaking down,” he said. “Even historically successful peace processes have been full of misunderstandings.”
Nine new coronavirus victims, all of them linked to a New Rochelle attorney fighting for his life against the ailment, were identified Wednesday — including his wife and two kids, a suburban Good Samaritan and five members of a second family.
The victims fell like dominoes as the potentially lethal disease cut a scary path through the city’s northern suburbs, with the number of victims now at 11. City officials, after confirming earlier that the infected man’s wife, 20-year-old son and 14-year-old daughter tested positive, announced later that a friend of the lawyer apparently brought the virus home as well. The man, his wife, their two sons and a daughter all tested positive for the virus, officials said.
The ninth victim was the next-door neighbor of the New Rochelle resident, and he apparently became infected while driving the ailing 50-year-old attorney to the hospital last week, officials said.
The patriarch of the second family “spent time with and in close proximity” with the ill Manhattan lawyer, said Gov. Cuomo. The man’s kids attended the Westchester Torah Academy, which was closed Tuesday as word of the sick suburban dad spread.
The stunning news of a second infected family came after hundreds of suburban New Yorkers were asked to self-quarantine inside their homes after officials announced the new confirmed cases.
Tests for possible coronavirus on patients in Buffalo came back negative, as did a test on the husband of the healthcare worker who became New York’s first case of the virus, the governor said.
Cuomo encouraged roughly 1,000 at-risk people to remain inside through Friday and contact health officials if symptoms develop. Most of them were connected in some way with the attorney, and most of those through the Temple Young Israel synagogue in New Rochelle.
Authorities specifically cited worshipers who attended services on Feb. 22, or a funeral service and a bat mitzvah one day later. The sick man also commuted via Metro-North to his law office on E. 42nd St.
“Self-quarantine is basically stay in your home, limit the exposure to the number of people that you might come in contact with,” Cuomo advised.
The infected lawyer, still hospitalized in critical condition at a Manhattan hospital, checked into a suburban hospital on Feb. 27 with respiratory problems that remained undiagnosed until four days later. His family members, along with his helpful neighbor, are currently quarantined at their homes, the governor said.
Yeshiva College, where the son was living in the dorms, canceled classes at its Washington Heights campus on Wednesday. And the Salanter Akiba Riverdale Academy and High School in the Bronx, where the teenage girl is a student, voluntarily closed down one day before the diagnosis was made and remained shuttered.
Doctors were also testing the New Rochelle neighbor’s children for any signs of the virus, with eight employees at NewYork Presbyterian Lawrence Hospital in Bronxville also undergoing the same tests, according to Cuomo. The state is also testing the sick man’s colleagues at his Midtown law office.
“There are going to be dozen and dozens and dozens of people — and the more people you test the more will be positive,” the governor warned in announcing the new cases. “You start testing, you’re going to see the number go up.”
Mayor de Blasio said the city dispatched “disease detectives” to the Yeshiva campus to identify any of the student’s close friends who were at risk of infection.
Two students exposed to their stricken classmate were taken to Bellevue Hospital, where both will be tested for the virus. There was no immediate word on the results.
“We will continue working closely with our state partners to ensure we are doing everything we can to keep New Yorkers safe,” said de Blasio.
The man who tested positive Monday for the coronavirus had no known travel links to countries at the center of the outbreak. He remains in critical condition at New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Medical Center in upper Manhattan, according to health officials.
New York state is recalling SUNY and CUNY students from study abroad programs in China, Italy, Iran and other places where the virus is widespread. They will return on a chartered plane destined for Stewart International Airport near Newburgh, Orange County, and then be quarantined for 14 days.
People look over storm damage laid out in the streets of Nashville on March 3, 2020 in Nashville, Tenn. Nashville was struck with by two tornadoes on Monday night and into early Tuesday morning following heavy storms in the area. At least 19 people have been killed. (Mark Humphrey/AP)
At least two devastating tornadoes tore through central Tennessee, leaving a trail of death and destruction in the metro Nashville area and beyond early Tuesday morning.
Tennessee Department of Emergency Management Community Relations Officer Maggie Hannan confirmed that 19 people have been killed across four different counties, the Tennessean reported.
There have been at least two confirmed deaths in East Nashville, police said in a tweet just after 4 a.m. Another 14 people were killed amid the extreme weather just east of the city in Putnam County, according to a Facebook post from the Putnam County Sheriff’s Office.
“There’s a really good possibility there may be more,” Gov. Bill Lee said at morning press conference. “It’s early yet.”
The twister near downtown reportedly stayed on the ground into Hermitage, about 10 miles outside of Nashville. The fire department said it’s currently responding to reports of approximately 40 structures that have collapsedin and around the city.
Surrounding areas, including Mt. Juliet and Germantown are also facing significant damages, officials said.
“Our community has been impacted significantly,” the Mt. Juliet Police Department said in a tweet. “There are multiple homes damaged and multiple injuries. We have requested mutual aid from allied agencies. We continue to search for injured. Stay home if you can. Watch for downed power lines.”
Video shared online sees skies illuminated with lightning as what appears to be a well-defined funnel moves across the city. Other social media posts and images reveal the scope of the damage in wake of the twisters.
Streets downtown were left littered with debris and downed power lines, several homes were destroyed, and huge trees were completely broken early Tuesday morning.
Nashville Electric tweeted that four of its substations were damaged in the weather. As of 4 a.m., outages were affecting more than 44,000 customers, according to the utility company.
John C. Tune Airport, Nashville International’s sister airport in West Nashville, “sustained significant damage due to severe weather,” Spokesman Kim Gerlock said in a statement, noting that several hangars have been destroyed but that no injuries have been reported.
Parts of Tennessee State University’s campus were also damaged, but students are currently out on spring break. And a gas leak reportedly prompted an evacuation of the IMT building in Germantown.
Photos published by WSMV-TV show dozens of people carrying their belongings in the streets shortly after the tornado tore through the city.(Mark Humphrey/AP)
Schools, courts and transit lines were also closed down and the locations of four Super Tuesday polling stations have been moved.
“My heart goes out to those who have lost loved ones. Be sure to lend a helping hand to a neighbor in need, and let’s come together as a community once more. Together, we will get through this and come out stronger.”
Authorities have urged residents in Nashville and the surrounding area to remain indoors while they continue to assess the damage.
The city’s emergency operations center has been activated and an emergency shelter set up. The American Red Cross said on Twitter that it has established a spot for displaced residents at the Nashville Farmer’s Market, just north of the state capitol.
The storm system was forecast to bring an isolated tornado, damaging winds and large hail, news outlets reported. Heavy rain was expected to impact Gulf Coast states over the next several days.
With News Wire Services
The Russian Navy’s frigate Admiral Makarov sets sail in the Bosphorus on its way to the Mediterranean Sea on Friday. –
Yoruk Isik
LONDON — Russia on Friday announced it had dispatched two state-of-the-art warships to the Middle East after an attack in Syria killed 33 Turkish soldiers.
Videos posted on social media showed two of Russia’s newest guided missile frigates, the Admiral Grigorovich and Admiral Makarov, making their way through the Bosporus, a Turkish-controlled chokepoint that runs through Istanbul, on their way to the Syrian coast.
Though Russia and Turkey have seen a rapprochement in recent years, much to the chagrin of the U.S. and its NATO allies, the two sides pursue opposing goals in Syria: Moscow backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while Ankara backs rebel groups opposing him in northern Syria.
Turkey has beefed up its support — both in men and materiel — for rebel forces in the face of a Syrian regime assault on the last remaining opposition stronghold in Idlib province. The escalation of violence has again highlighted Russia and Turkey’s irreconcilable aims in Syria.
The Russian Defense Ministry said Friday that the Turkish forces in Idlib came under Syrian government fire while operating alongside “terrorist formations” near the settlement of Behun, referring to Turkish-backed rebels.
“[Russian forces] have constantly requested and confirmed with their Turkish colleagues the coordinates of the location of all units of the Turkish armed forces positioned near the areas of terrorist actions,” the Russian statement said.
The statement said that Turkey failed to notify Russia that its troops were operating in the region while simultaneously denying that any Russian aircraft were conducting air strikes in the region.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking at press conference Friday, expressed his condolences for the Turkish soldiers, but noted that the incident would have been prevented if Ankara honored a de-confliction agreement between the two militaries in the region. He also said Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan have spoken about the situation.
The deployment Friday of Russian ships, capable of firing guided cruise missiles at land targets, comes as Turkey mulls over possible responses to the killing of its soldiers by Russian-backed Syrian forces on Thursday— including the possibility of a wider Turkish assault on Syrian forces in Idlib.
Military tensions last flared in 2017, when Turkey shot down a Russian aircraft that strayed into Turkish airspace while conducting bombing runs on Ankara-backed rebel forces in north-western Syria, raising the specter of broader conflict between Europe’s two largest militaries.
Turkey ultimately backed down from that standoff and signed on to purchase Russian S-400 air defense systems. Since then, Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan have made a show of fostering closer ties – at the expense of Turkey’s relations with NATO.
But now, with tensions again flaring with Russia, Erdogan is looking West for support. At Turkey’s request, NATO will be holding a meeting to consult with Ankara on the situation in Syria on Friday.
Reuters contributed to this report.
In order to understand the events in Idlib, it will be useful to briefly summarize the process, up until November 15, 2015.
On November 15th 2015, Erdogan and Putin held a meeting in Antalya, taking the use of the G-20 summit. The meeting had an important secret agenda.
Even Putin at first, did not know about this agenda. Erdogan has addressed his Russian counterpart as “Volodya” (a sincere informal version of the name Vladimir), and said that the Turkish Army would launch an operation on the Syrian territory. The Russian President has responded to these statements from Erdogan, by saying “we will look the other way”. Moscow had turned a green light, on the Turkey’s operation abroad.
As a matter fact, the Astana process would have begun around that time instead. The two countries had agreed upon intervening in the Kurdish corridor, without the consent of the United States, who wanted to establish such a corridor.
However, a Russian Su-24 fighter jet was shot down on November 24th 2015, while 10 days has not passed since this agreement was in order. The statements of “we can strike again if necessary”, “I gave the order to shoot down”, “NATO should intervene” have risen from the AKP government. To this, Putin would say, “We were stabbed in the back”, which was understood as an insignificant statement at the time, but what the Russian leader meant when saying these words, was the agreement of the November 15th.
What has happened, that these two countries came to brink of a war, when just nine days ago two leaders have agreed upon the intervention on Syria territory, by the Turkish Army? The consensus, which could change the course of the region, was sabotaged. Moreover the breakdown of the mentioned agreement, Turkey and Russia have become the sides of a very serious geopolitical fraction.
We have explained this many times in our articles. The Turkish-Russian conflicts has always ended up with negative results for the both countries. The winner from these conflicts has always been the West. In fact, the West’s implementations of its plans in the region was always dependent on the provocation of these conflicts.
Davutoglu’s “strategic depth” has prepared the ground for the Kurdish corridor, and then the sabotage of the Gulenist pilots and Ankara’s attitude, deprived of the necessary statesmanship has avenged it. On top of these, Turkey has now lost one its potential allies. The US has left this to Russia to be taken care of. The July 15th plot was initiated right after this operation.
With this, Turkey will be politically isolated; and Russia would fall into Washington’s trap, of the US project to “establish a new government in Turkey”.
The Patriotic Party’s (Vatan Partisi (Turkey)) warns in Moscow, has ended up with positive results. When the plan the US wanted to implement through FETO in Turkey was explained, the Russian view of the issue has changed, and the idea that the re-negotiation could be established with the condition of an apology from Ankara, has come dominant.
Relations have achieved complete recovery, when Ankara kept its promises, even removed Davutoglu from the prime minister’s office, but this time not only Turkey, but the entire region has faced an American coup attempt on the July 15th. Turkish-Russian relations were accelerated as a result of this threat being repelled, the Syrian consensus of November 15th 2015, was revived once more.
The Astana process has begun with a delay, even though it was sabotaged by the fighter jet crisis. The two countries need each other. But the opposing front did not settle down with this easily. The assassination of Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Ankara Andrei Karlov, was for the re-sabotaging of this regional cooperation, that is outside the US initiative. However, the two countries’ approach to this event has also failed this attempt.
With the ups and downs, this process was finally crowned with the Sochi agreement. The US’ Greater Middle East project was buried to the pages of history. The US’ plans had no chance of success, in conditions where Turkey and Russia are cooperating in the region. Turning this equation around, was again dependent on the deterioration of the Turkish-Russian relations.
Washington and its various contractors have seen Libya as an opportunity. Attempts of disruption from the inside and from the outside, did not end in positive results, in Libya. Solid interests, and the need for each other between the two countries, have also been quite decisive in the Libyan issue.
The leaders of these two countries agreed first. Then, ceasefire talks have begun in Moscow. The Atlantic front has again acted to prevent the moves outside its own initiative. Although the Atlantic front has tried to undermine this process by using its influence on Haftar, Turkish-Russian cooperation has proved itself to be the only option to the resolution of this problem.
In parallel to the Libyan talks, Turkish and Syrian intelligences have come in contact in the highest level under the Russian mediation. The official sharing of this event to the public, has been a glimmer of hope for the ultimate resolution of the Syrian crisis. This glimmer of hope also meant the end of the Atlantic front’s story in the region.
Meanwhile, the world was shaken down by the murder of Soleimani. We have just learned one of the hidden “sins” of this attack. According to the American New York Times Newspaper, the United Arab Emirates held some secret talks with Iran in September 2019, without the notice of the Washington, and these talks were arranged by Soleimani, who was killed in the attack. The US was going mad, as its own initiative was breaking apart.
This is the moment, in times when Turkey and Russia have taken the initiative, on the issues of Syria and Libya, after a week has passed, just as back in the fighter jet crisis, a situation of opposing sides has occurred. The killing of the Russian officers and the Turkish soldiers, has created a new crisis.
However, there is a rule that applies to all three countries Turkey, Syria and Russia. You can even apply this law for every country and every region that was targeted by the United States. Let us formulate this rule in the simplest way.
All centrifugal forces are the instruments of the United States, indirectly or directly, and serve the imperialist plans regardless of their names, thoughts, ideologies, intentions, and are against the peace and prosperity in the region. The centrifugal forces are triggering fault lines in the region, and it is not possible for a break in one country targeted by the United States, not to spread to other countries. In fact, any centrifugal power in Syria, be it separatist or extremist, is a guarantee for another centrifugal power.
This was why the main principle of the Astana process, was to ensure the territorial integrity of Syria. So the purge of the centrifugal powers by the centrist powers, is in favor of all the three countries.
This also serves as an indicator for the policies of the countries’ leaders. The more you are in favor of the purge, the more patriotic you are; The more you support the centrifugal forces, the more you stand against the national interests of your country.
This part is very important: The attitude of the Turkish leadership comes from its responsibility to itself, not the responsibilities against Russia or Syria. The same applies to the Russian and Syrian leaderships. To be more clear, the more Putin delays the full elimination of separatist forces, the more he betrays the interests of his own country. The more Erdogan supports the terrorism in Idlib, the more it harms the Turkey’s own interests. The same applies to Bashar al-Assad.
Therefore, there is no such a conflict of interest between these countries in Syria. There are also no concessions that countries need to make. Every single conflict between Turkey, Russia and Syria, is not due to the clash of interests between the countries, but because of the subjective reasons.
Of course, there may be outsourced interventions and arrangements. The only thing left that holds the US’ Greater Middle East Project. That is to clash Turkey with Syria and Russia, and to make Turkey isolated by leaving it away from its allies.
Washington’s “We stand alongside Turkey” lies, are just a part of this strategy. We can see that clearly, when we look at the whole picture. It is not that the United States has given up on its strategic partner the PKK/PYD. It still remains as literally the captain of the front opposite to Turkey, in the Eastern Mediterranean. Did the same United States, just declared the Deal of the Century? While Turkey is clashing the United States on every front, there is a reason why it stands by the side of Turkey in only an anti-Russia and anti-Syrian conflict. The reason, is to prevail over Turkey, and on the other hand to pursue economic threats/sanctions in order to keep the control of it.
However, there are some internal reasons that form the ground for this crisis. First reason, is the AKP government’s persistence to contact with Damascus, as it is necessary. When the contact with Damascus is not being established, the process of ensuring the territorial integrity of Syria, and guarantee for the Turkish national security as a consequence, opens to external arrangements.
The cooperation with Damascus will also prevent a wave of migration on Idlib. It is impossible for Ankara to stop Damascus to ensure its territorial integrity. A proper state will do so, by its own nature. This is a state instinct. If Turkey is there in the process, if Turkey plans this together with Syria, they can prevent that wave of migration. Turkey stands no chance to block Damascus to ensure its territorial integrity (and has no interest either), but by cooperating with Damascus, it is possible to prevent the wave of migration, by planning the process and by ensuring that necessary measures are taken.
However, it should be noted that all three countries have forces that want to undermine cooperation. In Russia, forces with openly Westernist axes can be described as the fifth column, which is isolated, and have little to no chance of affecting the state’s policies. But we can say that Putin has a liberal team clustered around him. This sixth column activities (also nested in the media) has lurked into the crises with Turkey.
While this trend in Turkey manifests itself through sectarianism, those who are fueling the problems with Turkey are not absent in Syria. Despite they also face such lies, the imperialist lie of the Armenian genocide being accepted in the Syrian parliament is one of the examples. A mistake done against the interests of the two countries, triggering other mistakes on the both sides. The pain we have with our martyrs, is the result of such a vicious cycle.
In all three countries, these provocations are garnished with so-called “nationalist, patriotic” slogans. However, to leave them alone in the face of a powerful enemy, to expose the main threat by creating bigger problems in front of it, and even to spend your energy in the face of potential friendly forces in which you have common interests by drawing attention away from the real threat, are the largest detriments that can be done to these countries.
It is not possible to make them fall for these policies, which make these sinister imperialist forces enjoy, by saying “a view from Ankara” or “neither quite like this, nor that”. Especially funny conspiracy theories that are completely disconnected from the life and the facts such as “The United States and Russia have agreed and they will end Turkey”, would not save this axis.
One thing is for sure, it is that war is won by force. It is necessary to create a unified domestic force to balance out the threat you are facing with. But the magnitude of the threat also requires building a chain of international alliances. This is also a way to reduce the cost and losses of war in any case. I do not think it is necessary to mention that these alliances will be created on the basis of common interests.
Turkey’s experience in the War of Independence and the international alliances that it established are full of important lessons, in this regard. We can learn ‘’how to perceive from Ankara’s view” from those who has shaped Ankara, to its current form.
The main role of the Independence War in achieving success was undoubtedly played by “the nation’s own persistence and decisiveness”. Turkey “trusted its own power”, but as Mustafa Kemal Pasha said, “it is obligatory to join forces considering the large number of our enemies”.
The Caucasus had a strategic role in the global struggle for interests, in terms of having raw material resources and especially oil, being at the crossings of the roads from the Central Asia to the Black Sea and creating a buffer zone between Turkey and Russia. While the Entante Powers, particularly Britain, have put forward the Caucasian Frontline Plan to prevail in this struggle, Turkey and Soviet Russia are faced with the necessity to go to a military co-operation to disrupt this plan, which is a matter of survival to them.
Ankara’s policy of military cooperation was based on its strategy to save the west of the country by first creating a foothold in the east. In fact, the liberation of Istanbul and the end of the Greek occupation actually depended on it.
Two important pillars of cooperation in the South Caucasus took place in Armenia and Georgia. The elimination of British collaborative governments in the two countries and the implementation of the Soviet administrations there, have become the common plan for Ankara and Moscow.
This goal was first achieved in Armenia with common operations by the Turkish Armies and the Red Army. However, this process was sabotaged by the provocations of the West, initiatives from inside Russia and Turkey, as well as with the efforts of the Dashnak Forces to bring down the Turkish Forces and the Red Army. After all, for centuries, especially in the Caucasus, there were remnants of the ongoing rivalry.
However, the military and political leaders of the two countries saw that Turkey’s defense was Russia’s defense, and vice versa. When these facts were grasped, the common interests came forward and not the break-up points, thus the cooperation was strengthened. The problems between the two armies could be overcome by this perspective.
Then, the same military collaboration came to life in the Menshevik Georgia. The British collaborator Menshevik government was destroyed, but this time the two armies clashed with each other in Batumi. A crisis has risen that will lead to minor conflicts and mutual casualties.
At that time, the delegations of the two countries were in negotiation in Moscow. For the West, the signing of a treaty in Moscow meant that their plans were ruined. The dispute between Turkey and Russia in Batumi, was the only way for the West. On March 16th 1921, the Moscow Treaty was signed, and Batumi was left to the Soviet side. However, the crisis continued as there were still two armies in the city. The West, on the other hand, was forcing Ankara into a Caucasus Federation Project against Russia under the Turkish leadership. As a result, the problem was solved by the pulling back of Turkish Army from Batumi by following the Treaty.
Kazim Karabekir’s approach with the common sense, to the matter from Ankara, has played an important role in overcoming the crisis. His letter to Mustafa Kemal on March 27th 1921 is a summary of this view:
“The actual cause of the London conference was clearly revealed to be a double game of, melting Turkey in a ring of fire by provoking the Caucasian Ambitions of the Turks alongside the Georgians, in order to wage wars against the Russians, or at least to prevent the Turks to cooperate with the Russians against the Georgians. I attribute the agreement with the Menshevik Georgian government who has understood the Entante Powers’ Caucasian plot, and even reaching to a point where a Caucasian Confederation is agreed upon, and the invasion of Batumi being approved by the National Assembly, to the lack of individuals who understood the Eastern Issue and Russia’s vital problems, and to the terrifying Entente propaganda that surrounds us from all sides. (…) As long as the Russians dominate the Caucasus, we must remain friendly or even connected to them. This can be done by convincing the Russians with words and behaviors that we do not have any ambitions over their survival interests. Since the factories and railways were built entirely according to Baku resources during the Tsarist Russia, no matter what government form Russia has, it cannot be without Baku for Russia, or Baku also cannot make it without Batumi. We should no longer be suspected from the Russians, in the north of the border (…) This is needed to protect the railway connecting these two important ports. For this, first of all our representatives in Baku and Tbilisi and elsewhere should not be the ground for counter-revolutionary committees. Our representatives must have no contrary opinions to the policies drawn by our government with either personal or external influences, and they must have clear objectives. The Entente Powers are spreading such strong propaganda and they spend such costs that, it is needed to have the intelligence and morality not to be surprised by this. Otherwise, the Entente Powers will continue to influence our civil servants and will maintain the counter-revolutionary cells in the Caucasus in the circles of our officials and a great mistrust between us and the Russians shall be maintained. This is a disastrous policy for us as long as the Russians are in power.”
Mustafa Kemal Pasha said that he thought the same way in his response to Karabekir and this sort of an action was suitable for the national interest.
This is exactly what we mean by looking at the issue from Ankara, to be a great statesman and a commander, and to carry the country to the August 30th. Karabekir was perhaps one of the most ideologically and politically distant figures to Soviet Russia, but his true patriotism, his focus on the success and the victory, led him to take the most determined stance with this cooperation.
The status of Idlib cannot even be compared to the importance of Batumi, that Turkey had at that time. Idlib is eventually a Syrian administrative territory, and there is nothing as natural as it being under control of the Syrian central authority. We have emphasized many times that this is in favor of Turkey.
Turkey’s focus should be on the east of the Euphrates. Turkey’s stance in Idlib also matters for clearing the terrorism in the east of the Euphrates. (We explained the issue of migration wave in the above.)
Turkey has achieved a significant success in Syria, by means of military operations that began in 2016 and has not allowed the American corridor to be established. With this success, the alliances it established within the international plan and the Astana process have played a very important role.
But for the ultimate success, it is necessary that this axis be insisted on, and that the mistakes made in the process to be abandoned. It is needed to be in contact with Damascus for our national interests. Turkey does not need mediators to come in contact with its neighbor.
Turkey’s insistence on the Astana process, will also allow its allies to take a more stable stance on the east of the Euphrates. Turkey will gain new allies in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Russia could not make it without Turkey and neither could Turkey without Russia. Syria and Iran are also included in this equation. In this process, it is inevitable that the necessities will be decisive again. These necessities impose itself enough to determine not only the government policies, but also the governments themselves. But by the time passes, the cost we pay goes up.
So let us look from Ankara’s view, let us learn from Kazim Karabekir!
