Author: Harut Sassounian

Michael Balestra, Special Agent of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, submitted a 16-page sworn affidavit on June 21, 2021 to Judge Jennifer Boal against Arif Ugur, a Turkish national, requesting that an arrest warrant be issued.

Ugur was accused of:

1) Conspiring to export defense technical data from the United States to Turkey without an export license;

2) Exporting technical data from the United States to Turkey without an export license;

3) Committing wire fraud by devising a scheme of fraudulently obtaining contracts from the Department of Defense (DOD).

Ugur is a 52-year-old Turkish national who lived in Massachusetts intermittently since 2002. He became a Permanent Resident of the United States in 2005.

According to the affidavit, Ugur founded in 2015 the Anatolia Group Limited Partnership in Massachusetts, described as a domestic manufacturer and supplier of specialty machinery and parts to DOD. He was the sole partner.

The Affidavit claimed that “between July 2015 and September 2017, Ugur acquired dozens of contracts to supply DOD entities with various parts and hardware items used by the U.S. military. Many of these contracts required that the parts be ‘domestic end product,’ manufactured in the United States. In order to obtain these contracts, Ugur falsely represented to DOD that Anatolia would manufacture the parts at facilities in the United States. In fact, Anatolia had no manufacturing capabilities whatsoever and many of the parts that Anatolia supplied to DOD and its affiliates were manufactured overseas, including at least one manufacturer in Turkey. Some of these parts were substandard and, therefore, could not be used for their intended military purpose.”

Ugur provided the manufacturer in Turkey “with technical specifications and drawings of the parts, which he obtained from the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA).” Several of the drawings and specifications required an export license which Ugur failed to obtain, prior to exporting them to Turkey. He registered his company with the DLA which granted him access to DOD bids after he agreed in writing to comply with the strict legal requirements — not disclosing, sharing or providing foreign entities access to defense technical data, according to the affidavit.

On August 13, 2015, DLA provided Ugur access to technical specifications, drawings and other information concerning active DLA solicitations. That same day via email, Ugur notified three Turkish nationals on how to access the DLA ‘Collaboration Folders’ through the internet, including its library of ‘military critical technical data,’ the affidavit alleged.

Special Agent Balestra wrote in the affidavit: “In an email dated on or about July 27, 2016, a DLA purchasing agent asked Ugur to verify the ‘address of the actual manufacturing’ of Bracket Assemblies for the purpose of arranging an origin inspection…. In an email dated on or about July 28, 2016, Ugur told the contracting agent that the Bracket Assemblies were being manufactured by Anatolia at 90 Woodmont Road in Milford, Connecticut. I believe this statement was false, as Ugur knew that the Bracket Assemblies were being manufactured by the Turkish Manufacturer in Turkey. Ugur subsequently caused the Bracket Assemblies to be delivered to DOD in late August 2016 without allowing DLA to first inspect the parts at the place of manufacture. I believe that Ugur intentionally avoided the origin inspection in order to conceal from DLA the true place of manufacture: Turkey. Upon receiving the Bracket Assemblies, DOD determined that they failed to meet contractual specifications. DOD declined to pay Ugur and Anatolia for the Brackets, and they attempted (unsuccessfully) to return the parts to Ugur.”

A similar violation allegedly took place when DLA awarded Anatolia a contract to manufacture Groove Pulleys. On August 23, 2016, Ugur emailed the technical data related to the Groove Pulleys to Individual D, an employee of AYPIK located in Turkey, according to Balestra’s sworn affidavit. DOD determined that the Groove Pulleys failed to meet the contractual specifications.

Arif Ugur was arrested on June 22, 2021 and charged in federal court in Boston with one count of wire fraud, one count of violating the Arms Export Control Act and one count of conspiracy to violate the Arms Export Control Act, stated in a press release the United States Attorney’s Office, District of Massachusetts.

“The charge of violating the Arms Export Control Act provides for a sentence of up to 20 years in prison, three years of supervised release and a fine of up to $1 million, or twice the gross gain or loss of the offense. The charge of conspiring to violate the Arms Export Control Act provides for a sentence of up to five years in prison, three years of supervised release and a fine of $250,000. The charge of wire fraud provides for a sentence of up to 20 years in prison, three years of supervised release and a fine of up to $250,000 or twice the gross gain or loss of the offense,” according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office pointed out that “the details contained in the criminal complaint are allegations. The defendant is presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law.”

The snap parliamentary elections have been tumultuous. A lot has been written and said about the candidates in these elections as to who should lead Armenia in light of the recent devastating war, dismal condition of the people, and threats against the territorial integrity of Armenia and Artsakh.

Nikol Pashinyan came to power three years ago. The overwhelming majority of the Armenian people, both in Armenia and the Diaspora, fervently welcomed him, reacting to their dislike of the former leaders. However, Pashinyan did not justify the people’s enthusiastic support and their expectations. Many were disappointed with his inept performance both during and before the war. Even then, the antagonism for the former leaders was so intense and the prospect of their returning to power was so feared that most voters either stayed out of the election or voted for Pashinyan. What was really surprising is not so much Pashinyan’s landslide victory, winning almost 54% of the votes cast, but the fact that the coalition led by former Pres. Robert Kocharian was able to receive as high as 21% of the votes.

Nevertheless, the people in Armenia have spoken. We should respect their choice whether we agree with them or not. Diaspora Armenians do not have a vote in Armenia’s elections. Not even the citizens of Armenia who live outside the country can vote unless they go back home on Election Day. So, this is a choice made by those who live on the ground in Armenia. They will rightly bear the immediate impact of their choices, good or bad. In my opinion, Pashinyan does not possess the ability to lead a country with so many problems. Rather than finding solutions, he has regrettably made matters worse by his own incompetence and that of his advisors and ministers.

Regrettably, a lot of violent, vile, hateful and insulting words were said during the campaign, particularly by Prime Minister Pashinyan. It was unbelievable that he would wave a hammer during the campaign speeches and threaten to use it on his opponents after the election. He repeatedly threatened to lay them on the asphalt and plaster them to the wall! Those are words that no self-respecting leader should use in addressing his people, whether they support him or not. Pashinyan also told the people repeatedly that he will change his previously-described “velvet revolution” to a “steel revolution.” It is amazing to me that a man who came to power preaching tolerance and advocating democratic principles has turned into a tyrant who is threatening violence towards his own political opponents. Such hostile language is more appropriate to be used against Armenia’s foreign enemies.

I just hope that after suffering from the violence of our enemies, Armenians do not resort to commit violence on one another due to political disagreements. There should be a civilized discourse and polite expression of opinions.

The other strange phenomenon we encountered is the government’s announcement prior to the election that there were 2,578,678 eligible voters. This is a very strange figure given the fact that the country’s population is around 2.9 million. If one subtracts the 700,000 youngsters under the age of 18 who cannot vote, the number of the eligible voters should be much less than the announced figure. The only valid explanation is that hundreds of thousands of Armenians who permanently left the country many years ago are still registered as voters. The inflated number of eligible voters is the reason that the election results wrongly show that a little less than 50% of them voted. It is high time that the government update its voting registers to eliminate the large number of people who have left the country for good. Since voters need to have a domestic address, those who have moved out of the country should no longer be eligible to vote. Furthermore, cleansing the voting registers would eliminate election fraud as locals would be unable to vote for those who have left the country, as it has happened in the past.

As expected, there were a lot of accusations of voter fraud resulting in the losing sides rejecting to accept the outcome of the election. We need to wait for the courts to make their determination before we jump to any conclusions.

Pashinyan’s opponents had urged him to leave office and not let his government oversee the elections, fearing an undue influence over the electoral process. However, Pashinyan refused to do so and remained as a caretaker Prime Minister. As a result, he committed two serious violations even before the first vote was cast. He started campaigning several weeks before the legally authorized start of the campaign and used the resources of the government during his campaign trips, which is also illegal.

A sharply divided nation before the election became even more split after the election. Rather than advancing democracy in the country, successive elections have caused more instability in the country distancing Armenia further from any semblance of a democratic country. There is so much hatred among Armenians that one does not have to worry about Armenia’s enemies. Regrettably, Armenians have become their own worst enemy. It is incumbent on all Armenians, regardless of their political preferences, to lower the degree of hostility, especially in social media, and learn to express their disagreements without being rude and hostile. The onus is on the leader of the country to set an example of tolerance and urge everyone to be more civilized towards one another, instead of inflaming the passions and using threatening language. After all, we are all the sons and daughters of the same nation and we should put our collective interests and the survival of the nation ahead of any other issue.

Now that two parliamentary opposition groups are about to occupy one third of the seats in the Armenian Parliament, the discussions and disputes, no matter how sharp, should be transferred from the street to the halls of the legislature.

Finally, regardless of whom we supported in the elections, we should not lose sight of the fact that the people of Armenia and Artsakh are in a destitute situation, particularly after the recent war, and we should do whatever we can to support them. We should also try to help our leaders, even if we disagree with them. I hope, in return, Armenia’s leaders will welcome our extended hand and be willing to listen to the advice offered to them. We wish our people the best and pledge to do everything in our power to stand by them so they do not think they are abandoned to their tragic fate.

On November 18, 2020, a few days after the end of the Artsakh War, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan published a roadmap of promised actions in the following six-months. The Prime Minister also promised that “In June 2021 I will deliver the performance report of this roadmap, and the public opinion and reaction will be taken into account for deciding future actions.”

Now that seven months have passed from the Prime Minister’s roadmap of 15 promises, I would like to review his accomplishments and failings. Regrettably, Pashinyan has not kept his specific promise to deliver in June of 2021 a report on his performance vs. his promises. Such a report would have been very useful for the voters in Armenia to decide whom to support in the June 20, 2021 parliamentary snap elections which will select the next Prime Minister.

Rather than engage in mutual accusations and insults, the various political parties should have addressed the important issue of Pashinyan’s promises both kept and not kept. He said in November 2020 that he considered himself “the number one responsible person for the situation. I am also the main responsible person for overcoming the situation and establishing stability and security in the country.”

Let us now see if the Prime Minister has indeed succeeded in “overcoming the situation” resulting from the war and “establishing stability and security in the country.”

Here is Pashinyan’s 1st promise: “The restoration of the Karabakh negotiations process in the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairmanship format, with the emphasis of prioritizing the status of Artsakh and return of Artsakh residents to their places of residence.” I would say this promise is mostly unfulfilled as the Minsk Group remains ineffective in settling the conflict. The status of Artsakh is unresolved. Azerbaijan is ignoring the Minsk Group, as it considers the Artsakh issue resolved by force. Russia believes the status is an issue for the future. Most of the refugees have returned to Artsakh, although several thousand still remain in Armenia.

Pashinyan’s 2nd promise: “Ensure the return of the residents of Artsakh to their homes. Entirely restore normal life in Artsakh. Restoration of damaged homes, apartments and infrastructures in the territories that are under the control of the Nagorno Karabakh authorities.” Normal life has not been restored in Artsakh, as thousands of people have lost their homes which are in the territories occupied by Azerbaijan. Others have their homes destroyed or damaged. Most Artsakh refugees have returned from Armenia. Artsakh’s authorities have restored some of the infrastructures. This is also a mostly unfulfilled promise.

Pashinyan’s 3rd promise: “Ensure social guarantees for the families of killed servicemen and citizens.” This is a mostly fulfilled promise.

Pashinyan’s 4th promise: “Restoration of residential and public buildings and infrastructures in the territory of Armenia that were affected during the war.” There has not been a major damage inside Armenia. Nevertheless, the government has given financial assistance to some border villagers who lost their homes. Mostly fulfilled.

Pashinyan’s 5th promise: “Ensure social guarantees, prosthesis process and professional training for servicemen who suffered disabilities.” Some of these actions have been taken, partially with the help of Diaspora Armenian doctors. No mention is made of caring for the thousands of wounded soldiers and civilians, some of whom are still waiting for treatment. Promise mostly fulfilled.

Pashinyan’s 6th promise: “Speedy return of captured servicemen and civilians. Ensure social guarantees for their families. Speedy clarification of the fates of those missing in action. Ensure social guarantees for their families.” A few dozen of the about 200 captured Armenian soldiers and civilians have been returned, although not “speedily.” In fact, since the war, Azerbaijan has taken 70 additional Armenian prisoners of war. The fate and number of missing soldiers remain uncertain. The families of the missing have been compensated. Promise mostly unfulfilled.

Pashinyan’s 7th promise: “The development of a psychological rehabilitation system for people who participated in the war and overall the entire society.” This is a promise mostly unfulfilled, particularly the part about “the entire society.”

Pashinyan’s 8th promise: “Confirmation of a military reforms program and launch of reforms.” There has been only talk of reforms, but no actual reforms. Promise unfulfilled.

Pashinyan’s 9th promise: “Overcoming of the coronavirus pandemic and elimination of its consequences.” The government’s handling of the coronavirus has been a disaster. Equally disastrous has been the extremely late and slow vaccination process. So far 4,488 Armenians have died of the coronavirus and 223,723 infected. Those who died from the virus exceed those who were killed in the war. Failed promise.

Pashinyan’s 10th promise: “Restoration of the economic activity environment.” Economic activity has been as dismal in Armenia as in the rest of the world. Promise unfulfilled.

Pashinyan’s 11th promise: “Activation of programs for solving demographic problems.” Another unfulfilled promise. No progress in this regard. On the contrary, emigration has increased.

Pashinyan’s 12th promise: “Amendments of the Electoral Code and adoption of a new law on political parties.” The electoral code has been amended, some with immediate effect and others as of next year. The new electoral process is so complicated that most people in and out of Armenia are completely confused. The law on financing of political parties has been amended. Promise is mostly fulfilled.

Pashinyan’s 13th promise: “Introduction of the institution of specialized judges, as the first step in creating the Anti-Corruption Court. Launch of implementation of the illicit asset confiscation law.” Progress was made on the institution of specialized judges dealing with corruption. It remains to be seen if it has any effect on eliminating corruption. Promise mostly fulfilled.

Pashinyan’s 14th promise: “Holding permanent thematic consultations with representatives of Armenia’s political and civil society organizations.” There has been some consultation between the Prime Minister and several political parties, although such consultations have been selective and not permanent. No meetings have been held with civil society organizations. Promise mostly unfulfilled.

Pashinyan’s 15th promise: “Holding permanent thematic consultations with Armenian organizations and individuals in the Diaspora. Involvement of individuals and organizations of Armenia and the Diaspora in the above-mentioned processes.” This has been a total failure. A promise unfulfilled. There have been no occasional, let alone permanent, consultations with Diaspora Armenian organizations and individuals. Despite the Prime Minister’s repeated promises, he has not acted to amend the laws to allow Diaspora Armenians to assume high offices in the government. It has also not made a plan to tap the experience and expertise of Diaspora Armenians, except when it comes to seeking donations with little reporting about their expenditures.

The Prime Minister has Mostly Fulfilled: 5 promises; Mostly Unfulfilled: 5 promises; Unfulfilled: 5 promises. You be the judge.

In my opinion, Armenia has two main tasks to accomplish as soon as possible: 1) Strengthen the military immediately. 2) Elect a government of technocrats who have the leadership qualities and expertise to run a country on the brink of collapse.

Armenia’s current leaders blame previous leaders whenever something goes wrong in the country. After they lost the war, they blamed it on the previous presidents. They do not take any responsibility for their own shortcomings, even though they have been in power now for three years. While the previous rulers can be blamed for many wrongdoings, the current leaders have their own share of shortcomings.

Here is the perfect example of how the current leaders completely mishandled a critical national security project that they are fully to blame. There are many more such examples.

An Armenian businessman by the name of Artak Tovmasyan had the proper connections and the brilliant idea of building state-of-the-art armored military vehicles in Armenia and donating a portion of them to the Armenian government. One would think that Armenian officials would have welcomed such a valuable proposal and would have done everything possible to facilitate this important investment opportunity which has critical national security implications. This is the incredible story of incompetent and uncaring high-ranking Armenian government officials failing to capitalize on this unique offer.

Shortly after Nikole Pashinyan came to power as Prime Minister of Armenia in 2018, Mr. Tovmasyan met with him and proposed to invest in Armenia millions of dollars along with the Canadian Streit Group, a well-known manufacturer of armored military vehicles with 30 years of experience and factories in five countries, including Canada, the United Aram Emirates, Jordan, India and Pakistan. The sixth such facility would have been in Armenia. The total amount of the investment may have reached $20 million which would have included other military-related investors. The project would have also created hundreds of jobs.

Prime Minister Pashinyan expressed interest in the project in 2018 and told his aides to follow up. Regrettably, due to the incompetence and carelessness of Pashinyan’s cadre of officials, three years later, no progress has been made on this vital project, despite Mr. Tovmasyan’s several follow up meetings with the Prime Minister. These armored military vehicles would have been very useful during last year’s war with Azerbaijan, saving the lives of countless Armenian soldiers. Unfortunately, Armenian officials have remained unresponsive to this project, both before, during, and after the war.

Mr. Tovmasyan’s proposal consisted of offering to build gradually around 1,300 armored military vehicles over the next 10 years and donating 130 of them to the Armenian armed forces at no charge. With each vehicle worth $450,000 or more, the total value of the donated vehicles would have been over $60 million.

In return, Mr. Tovmasyan asked that the government of Armenia contribute the necessary land to set up this manufacturing venture on a free industrial zone. Coincidentally, he was made aware of a vacant piece of unused land on the outskirts of Yerevan belonging to the Ministry of Defense. If the project did not materialize, the investor would have been obligated to return the donated land back to the Armenian government.

I am in possession of over a dozen letters sent by Mr. Tovmasyan’s company, First Industrial Zone, to Armenian officials during the past three years, seeking approval for his proposed project. However, despite repeated requests for an answer, the Armenian government did not respond to Mr. Tovmasyan.

The Armenian government referred Mr. Tovmasyan’s proposal to the Interagency Committee which was tasked to review the project. The Interagency Committee included representatives from the Ministries of Economy, Finance, High Tech Industry, Territorial Administration and Infrastructure, Justice, State Revenue Committee, Urban Development Committee, Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and Union of Manufacturers and Entrepreneurs of Armenia. Surprisingly, the Interagency Committee did not include anyone from the Ministry of Defense to properly evaluate a military project. The Interagency Committee’s guidelines require that it review and refer to the government within 20 working days any submitted proposal. However, this deadline passed long ago, despite several reminders.

The most astounding part of this story is the unexpected Facebook post on March 6, 2021, by the recently-appointed Minister of Economy, Vahan Kerobyan, who had studied mathematics, but is clueless about economics.

Minister Kerobyan arrogantly wrote: “In reality, I am the one who stopped this industrial zone project because it ridiculously despises the interests of the citizens of the Republic of Armenia.” Minister Kerobyan was in no position to stop this project for two reasons: 1) As a recently-appointed Minister, he was not even around when this project was presented to the Prime Minister and subsequently referred to the Interagency Committee. 2) The decision to approve or reject this project rested with the Interagency Committee and the Prime Minister.

Minister Kerobyan went on to make more outlandish claims. He wrote: Let Mr. Tovmasyan “submit his proposal to the government’s approval in the next two weeks, but if he wants to pick up the nine hectares of land in Yerevan by promising a negligible amount of investment, then I remain of the opinion that this is not an investment project but a robbery. We have also proposed to implement this business with their conditions and tax permits in a city other than Yerevan, but incomprehensibly, exactly the precious piece of land in Yerevan is necessary to them for this production zone.”

Minister Kerobyan is misleading the public. Even though the Armenian government has not responded to the proposal in several years, he is claiming that he will respond in two weeks. Why hasn’t he then reacted to the existing proposal since his appointment last November? The fact is that he has never made a counter-proposal and has never sat down with the investor to discuss the proposal. Incidentally, the Defense Ministry was the one that suggested the land located on the outskirts of Yerevan to Mr. Tovmasyan, not for free, but for purchase. 

Finally, it is very unprofessional of Mr. Kerobyan to respond through a Facebook post to a serious proposal involving a multi-million dollar military production. Regrettably, that reflects the Minister’s lack of qualification for the job he holds.

In conclusion, Armenia lost the war for many reasons, but this type of behavior by an unqualified Minister and an incompetent government does not inspire any confidence that it will be able to attract investors and improve the country’s dismal economic situation anytime soon.

Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is completely ignorant about economics, met with the Chief Executive Officers of 26 major American companies and told them many falsehoods about the Turkish economy. The reality is that the Turkish economy is bankrupt and millions of Turkish citizens are on the verge of starvation, while the coronavirus is raging like wildfire, making Turkey the fifth largest country in the world in terms of infections.

Here are some of the lies Erdogan told the American CEO’s:  “None of the problems experienced in many countries and the disruptions in the supply chain have been experienced in Turkey. At a time when many economies in the world came to a standstill, we continued our investments in both the public and private sectors.“Thanks to the efforts of our private sector, the support of our state and dynamic epidemic measures, our economy closed 2020 with growth. With a rate of 1.8%, we became the country with the highest growth in the G-20 after China.“Despite the serious economic contraction in our traditional export markets and the contraction in foreign demand, we reached an export figure of $170 billion. The trade volume between Turkey and the United States increased by 4 percent and exceeded $21 billion.“In the January-April period of 2021, our exports increased by 33.1 percent compared to last year.“Our industrial production increased by 12.3% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. We also observe a significant increase in investment demand in Turkey.“The total direct investments of the United States in Turkey reached $13 billion, while the investments of Turkish companies in the United States reached $7.2 billion. I would like to thank all American companies who trust Turkey and the Turkish economy.”

Surprisingly, Erdogan then decided to tell the American CEO’s of Pres. Joe Biden’s acknowledgment of the Armenian Genocide on April 24, thus informing them of the horrible mass crimes committed by Ottoman Turkey against the Armenians.

“Even though President Biden’s statement about the 1915 events puts an additional burden on our relations, I believe that the meeting we will hold with Mr. Biden at the NATO Summit [in June] will herald a new era,” Erdogan stated hopingly.

Erdogan then contradicted his many cruel, inhuman, anti-Semitic and racist public statements and policies by claiming: “We have never, and never will, allow distorted mentalities such as xenophobia, anti-Semitism, and racism to find ground in our society. We resolutely continue our efforts to reform the economy, freedoms, laws and justice according to changing conditions and needs. We presented our Human Rights Action Plan and our Economy Reform package to the public.”

Here is the list of the CEO’s that Erdogan met with:

Cargill, David Webster, Senior Vice President – Food Ingredients and Bio Industrial Ventures; DowAksa, Douglas Parks, CEO; Hilton, Chris Nassetta, President and CEO; MetLife, Nuria Garcia, President — Europe, Middle East and Africa; Netflix, Spencer Neumann, CFO; Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Stan Deal, CEO; Kellogg Company, Steven Cahillane, President and CEO; Google, Karan Bhatia, Vice President – Public Policy, Europe, Middle East and Africa and Asia-Pacific; GE Aviation, John Slattery, President and CEO; Varian Medical Systems, Chris Toth, CEO; PepsiCo, Silviu Popovici, CEO Europe; Amazon, Susan Pointer, Vice President — Public Policy; Cheniere Energy, Anatol Feygin, CCO; Citi, David Livingstone, President and CEO — Europe, Middle East and Africa; Procter & Gamble, Loic Tassel, President — Europe; Progress Rail, Marty Haycraft, President and CEO; Tellurian Inc., Octavio Simoes, President and CEO; Medtronic, Rob ten Hoedt, Senior Vice President and Head of Europe; Archer Daniels Midland, Ismail Roig, President — Europe, Middle East and Africa; Microsoft, Samer Abu Ltaif, Corporate Vice President — Head of Europe and Middle East; Cisco, Michael Timmeny, Senior Vice President and Head of Corporate Strategy; Honeywell Aerospace, Mike Madsen, President and CEO; Nova Power Solutions, Steve Ziff, President and CEO; The Coca-Cola Company, Jenny Stoichkova, President — Europe and the Middle East; Johnson & Johnson, Giorgio Milesi, President — Emerging Markets; and Baker Hughes, Zaher Ibrahim, Vice President — Middle East, Turkey, North Africa.

Let us now turn to one of the top economists in the world, Daron Acemoglu, an Armenian born in Turkey, who is now Professor of Economics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Boston. His name is often mentioned as a future Nobel Prize nominee.

During a video interview, Acemoglu directly contradicted Erdogan’s propagandistic picture of the Turkish economy, by stating: “I have great fear the economic crisis may deepen in Turkey.”

Here are excerpts from Acemoglu’s description of the deplorable condition of the economy in Turkey: “When Turkey went to the presidential election and all the power gathered in the palace, it had a great impact on the economic policy.“These nationalist and authoritarian populist regimes or these movements generally weaken state capacity when they come to power. This is both a strategy and something they do unintentionally because they can’t rule legally. We see this in India, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, and Hungary.”“The countries where the most people died from the coronavirus in the world were Brazil, Turkey, India, Russia and populist authoritarian regimes such as America during the Trump administration.“Turkey has been experiencing the most critical economic crises in the last five years. There were major crises that started not only after the pandemic, but also before the pandemic. The increase in debts, the worsening of balance sheets, could a correct result be brought against them? No. Why? There are few people in the bureaucracy who can deal with the economy properly and improve it. Especially the cadres established under Berat Albayrak [Minister of Economy and Treasury and Erdogan’s son-in-law] could not bring the right approach to what needs to be done. Democracy has many advantages over dictatorships and authoritarian systems. But one of the biggest advantages is their tendency to keep the biggest mistakes, talents and incompetence in the lead, is much weaker. Especially when the presidential election in Turkey and all power gathered in the Palace, this had a great impact on the economic policy.“Especially in the last five years, unemployment and inequality have reached very high levels [in Turkey].“Shopping malls and construction companies, which have had a huge problem in their balance sheet for five years, are still standing. How long will they be able to stand? What will be the effects on banks? How long will we be able to keep the interest rate policy this way, while our reserves have decreased so much? These dimensions are likely to go much more negative. These problems are not only in Turkey, there are problems in other parts as well, but wherever you see these problems, you see the role of decisions not to manage the economy correctly.”

 I hope the American CEO’s will pay more attention to Acemoglu’s accurate assessment than to Erdogan’s propaganda which has led Turkey to economic disaster.

Publisher,

It is commonly stated that politics is similar to prostitution. There is no morality, just interests. However, there is also something called hypocrisy. While it is true that individuals or nations can get away with any kind of unscrupulous behavior for a while, but eventually it catches up with them and they become exposed.

There are plenty of examples of such dishonest behavior in the world, but let’s focus on the current case of Azerbaijan and its hypocritical behavior.

Azerbaijan is an Islamic state and active member of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, composed of 57 member states. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan’s infatuation with Israel initially started by copying the behavior of its “elder brother” Turkey which had gone out of its way to curry favor with Israel and American Jewish organizations to be on the good side of the United States government and to counter the Armenian-American community’s efforts in Congress to have the Armenian Genocide acknowledged.

Regrettably, the behavior of the Israeli government and that of Jewish American organizations were just as cynical and immoral intending to cuddle the Republic of Turkey which was pretending to be friendly and supportive at a time when Israel was surrounded by a sea of hostile Arab states.

Eventually, the leaders of Israel and Jewish-American organizations realized Turkey’s fake friendship after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeatedly insulted Israel and Jews by making hateful anti-Semitic remarks. Finally, Turkish hypocrisy was exposed and the relations were cut off!

Turning to Azerbaijan, it copied the Turkish example of hypocrisy vis-à-vis Israel and Jewish-American organizations. In this case, however, Azerbaijan pursued an interest much larger than their mere lobbying support. The relationship soon turned to mutual exploitation based on lies and deceit. Azerbaijan, flush with tons of petrodollars, bought billions of dollars of deadly drones and other advanced weapons from Israel in return for supplying the latter with oil. Never mind Israel’s immoral and criminal action with descendants of Holocaust survivors supplying deadly weapons to kill survivors of the Armenian Genocide.

However, Israeli leaders ignored all obvious signs of hypocrisy, deceit and mutual exploitation, blinded by the Almighty dollar. As I reported in a previous column, an early sign of Azerbaijan’s insincerity toward Israel was exposed on March 18, 2021, when Shahriar Hajiyev, third secretary at the Permanent Mission of Azerbaijan to the United Nations in Geneva, gave a speech at the Human Rights Council, harshly condemning Israel’s “massive, flagrant and systematic violations of human rights” of Palestinians. Except for a critical reaction by the Simon Wiesenthal Center in the United States, Israeli leaders ignored the Azeri attack, even after my column was reprinted by the Jerusalem Post on April 4, 2021.

A much more ominous development took place in May when Israel and Palestinians in Gaza engaged in mutual missile attacks, killing over 200 Palestinians and a dozen Israelis. The entire Arab and Islamic world condemned the Israeli attack on Gaza, except for Azerbaijan. Even when the Israeli police attacked Arab worshippers inside Al-Aqsa in Jerusalem, one of the holiest Islamic mosques, Azerbaijan remained silent.

What will be the repercussions of Azerbaijan’s abandonment of its fellow Muslims? Turkey and particularly Pres. Erdogan certainly feel betrayed by its “junior brother” whom Turkey helped win the war against Armenia and captured large parts of Artsakh. While Erdogan was harshly critical of Israel and threatened military intervention, Azerbaijan remained quiet. This will not remain unnoticed either in Ankara or other Islamic capitals.

The next time Pres. Aliyev of Azerbaijan submits another resolution to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to condemn Christian Armenia, OIC member states will remind Azerbaijan of its silence during the Israeli attack on Gaza. Ironically, just before the start of the recent Israeli-Palestinian attacks, Azerbaijan had proposed to mediate reconciliation between Israel and Turkey. Azerbaijan’s silence during the Gaza attack also put an end to that prospect.

Azerbaijan’s pro-Israeli stance will certainly create a friction with Turkey. The last time such ill will was expressed by Azerbaijan’s leader against Turkey was when Armenia and Turkey signed a protocol in 2009 to open their mutual border which Pres. Aliyev strongly opposed and stated that it would damage Azerbaijan-Turkey relations. During a meeting with Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Bill Burns in Baku on February 25, 2010, “Aliyev made clear his distaste for the Erdogan government in Turkey, underscoring the ‘naïveté’ of their foreign policy and the failure of their initiatives, including the loss of support for Turkey among traditional international friends because of Ankara’s hostility to Israel. He noted that in his view, there had never been any merit to the notion of a ‘moderate Islamist’ government in Turkey, and that Erdogan’s insistence on promoting Hamas and Gaza (when other Arab countries were notably silent on these issues) had brought Turkey no benefits,” WikiLeaks revealed.

In the long run, Pres. Aliyev’s lack of Islamic solidarity on Israel’s bombing of Gaza could undermine his government’s rule over 10 million Shia and Sunni Muslims in Azerbaijan, encouraged by Turkey which enjoys a tight grip over Aliyev after the Artsakh War. Aliyev’s cuddling of Israel would also have a negative effect on Azerbaijan’s relations with neighboring Iran and its large Azeri population.