Author: Aylin D. Miller

  • Bosnian War Crimes Sentence Blocked

    Bosnian War Crimes Sentence Blocked

    By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
    Published: July 3, 2008
    Filed at 6:17 a.m. ET

    Pool photo by Zoran Lesic

    Naser Oric at the court house of the UN war crimes tribunal on Thursday in The Hague.

    THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — A U.N. appeals court on Thursday overturned the war crimes conviction of Naser Oric, a Bosnian Muslim considered a war hero by many in his country for fighting Serbs in the embattled Srebrenica enclave during Bosnia’s 1992-95 war.

    Oric, 41, was convicted two years ago by the Yugoslav war crimes tribunal of failing to prevent the murder and torture of Serb captives in Srebrenica. But judges gave him a lenient two-year sentence and ordered his immediate release because of time spent in custody.

    But appeals judges went even further, overturning both convictions because the original trial failed to establish that Oric had control over forces responsible for the crimes.

    ”The appeals chamber has no doubt that grave crimes were committed against Serbs detained in Srebrenica,” said presiding judge Wolfgang Schomburg. ”However, proof that crimes have occurred is not sufficient to sustain a conviction of an individual for these crimes.”

    Under those circumstances, ”the appeals chamber finds that the appropriate course of action can only be a reversal of Naser Oric’s convictions,” Schomburg added.

    Oric stared ahead without showing any emotion as the judgment was read and then bowed briefly to judges before sitting down. Outside court, he hugged friends and his lawyer before walking out the front door a free man.

    ”Of course I am very happy,” he said.

    His lawyer, Vasvija Vidovic, said the acquittal was no surprise.

    ”Anyone who followed the trial could expect the result that he is not guilty,” she said.

    Oric said he was not bitter about spending nearly three years in pretrial custody, only to ultimately be found not guilty on all charges. ”It was my destiny,” he said.

    Oric led the dogged defense of the Srebrenica enclave against attacks from Bosnian Serb forces from early in the war. In 1995, Serb forces stormed a U.N.-declared ”safe haven” in Srebrenica and slaughtered some 8,000 men in Europe’s worst civilian massacre since World War II.

    Oric defended the actions of Muslim fighters in the enclave, saying they were in a desperate situation.

    ”I don’t think they really committed crimes,” he said outside court. ”We were under siege. We were just fighting to survive and fighting for our lives.”

    Some Bosnian Serbs claim the 1995 massacre was an act of revenge by uncontrolled troops because Oric’s troops killed thousands of Serbs in the villages surrounding Srebrenica.

    Judges at his original trial acquitted Oric of the most serious charges against him, including direct involvement in the murder of Serb prisoners and wanton destruction of Serb villages before the fall of Srebrenica.

    One of the Serb commanders found responsible for the massacre of Muslims, Radoslav Krstic, has already been sentenced to 35 years after a conviction on genocide charges.

    The commander of the Bosnian Serb Army, Gen. Ratko Mladic — also charged with genocide for the Srebrenica killings — is still in hiding and is believed to be in neighboring Serbia.

  • OSCE PA adopts Turkish thesis against Armenian Genocide

    OSCE PA adopts Turkish thesis against Armenian Genocide

    03.07.2008 13:32 GMT+04:00

    /PanARMENIAN.Net/ During its latest session in Astana, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) adopted Turkey’s motion which says that past events like genocide should be recognized only after historians carried out a detailed research in all kinds of archives, independent French journalist Jean Eckian told PanARMENIAN.Net.

    “Adoption of the Turkish thesis by the OSCE is a significant achievement against the Armenian allegations. Also, the Turkish thesis regarding the events of 1915 was adopted for the first time on an international platform. Armenia was the only among 56 OSCE member states to vote against the motion,” said Alaattin Buyukkaya, head of the Turkish delegation to the OSCE PA.

    “The motion says that the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly encourages formation of joint commission of historians and experts from the third countries in case of a research into political and military archives to scientifically and impartially enlighten a disputed period in history in an effort to serve transparency and common understanding among the member states,” Buyukkaya added.

    Source: PanARMENIAN.Net, 03.07.2008,

  • Turkish Intelligence Activities under Increased Public Scrutiny in Turkey and Greece

    Turkish Intelligence Activities under Increased Public Scrutiny in Turkey and Greece

    6/22/2008 (Balkanalysis.com)

    By Ioannis Michaletos and Christopher Deliso

    A number of high-impact incidents over the past few months have revealed that the historic feuding of Turkey and Greece is not a thing of the past. Some of these have been well-known, and overtly demonstrated in political events. Others have however received little mention, leaving the public curious to know what is going on behind the scenes.

    At the same time, procedural issues concerning the Turkish intelligence service’s jurisdiction and allowed methods have also been the subject of intense scrutiny among the Turkish public and media in recent weeks, raising dark memories of past indiscretions such as mass wiretapping scandals from an aggressive intelligence apparatus.

    Most recently, Turkey has demonstrated political gamesmanship by blocking the direct cooperation of NATO with the EU’s justice and security advisory mission in Kosovo, EULEX, which hopes to take a larger role in the self-declared Balkan country since the enactment of a Kosovo constitution on June 15. The EU’s gain has come to the detriment of UNMIK, the UN’s nine-year-old mission in Kosovo, which has been restricted further in its mandate by these ‘facts on the ground.’ The Turkish move comes as opposition to Cyprus, an EU but not NATO member: Turkey had already blocked the Greek Cypriots from sending peacekeepers to Kosovo. According to Deutsche Welle, “The move makes it unclear how the KFOR-EULEX relationship can now function on an official level.”

    There are clear interrelations with other regional issues as well. France, notably, has supported Greece on the Macedonia name issue, with President Sarkozy’s avowed Hellenism perhaps bolstered by his country’s sale of billions in arms to Greece. The two countries held a joint military exercise in May. As Balkanalysis.com reported last year, France has also been keenly interested in reported oil deposits off the coast of Cyprus, which the country opened to foreign exploration last year- despite vociferous Turkish protests. At the same time, Israel is threatening war with Iran, something that would not fail to impact on both Turkey and Greece in different ways. It is abundantly clear that the present moment is a very complex and volatile one in the Balkans and East Mediterranean.

    Turkey’s modern intelligence service, Millî İstihbarat Teşkilâtı (‘National Intelligence Organization,’ abbreviated MIT) was established by parliament on July 22, 1965, with Law no. 644. It was envisioned as being run by an undersecretary reporting to the prime minister. The body specifically replaced the Milli Emniyet Hizmeti (MAH). Earlier intelligence organizations dated back to the time of Ataturk, and before him, the Ottoman Empire. However, whereas Ataturk’s era led his developing country to emulate the leading European countries’ intelligence services, the Cold War reality of the 1960’s inspired key NATO ally Turkey to follow the American and NATO models especially. MIT headquarters today consists of a gardened compound in the suburbs of Ankara with a total surface area of more than 300 hectares, of course, very well secured.

    The murky activities of the organization have fascinated the Turkish public for decades. On the domestic front, Turks in early June became transfixed by a legal battle over the MIT’s wiretapping rights and simultaneous claims from a political party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), that claimed a wiretapping operation had been carried out against it by the government. This claim appeared following the publication, in late May, of a transcript was published in the newspaper Vakit of a private meeting held between Secretary-General Önder Sav and a guest in his office.

    According to Turkish newspaper Zaman, the incident “struck a chord in the recent memory of the nation, which has seen many a wiretapping scandal in years past.” However, it was soon proven to be a false allegation, Vakit reported, as it turned out that Sav had simply forgotten to turn off his phone after speaking with a journalist. The intrepid reporter then simply proceeded to transcribe what he heard over the following 42 minutes of Sav’s meeting. Former Interior Minister Sadettin Tantan, who ironically was involved in earlier similar scandals, lamented that continual rumors of bugging will continue indefinitely, so long as the country continues to lack a proper legal apparatus. Tantan pointed out other cases, including one in Greece, in which the authorities were able to control indiscretions through the kind of proper legislation enforcement he believes is missing in Turkey. According to the article in Zaman, he stated:

    “Intelligence services, institutions and even ordinary people have access to the possibilities of high-tech products. It is really difficult to struggle with these people under the article that defines the crimes committed through the overstepping of legal powers. There is no infrastructure in Turkey regarding this matter. The Turkish legal system has no security department. And this gap can be filled by national and foreign forces. We even don’t know what foreign [intelligence] services have been wiretapping. When similar scandals broke out in Germany, Austria, England, France, Switzerland and Denmark, these countries took very serious steps with regard to communications security. It is evident that some officials in Turkey have been engaging in professional misconduct.”

    After the exposure of a wiretapping scandal in 1996, parliamentarian Sabri Ergül and 19 other deputies from his CHP party deputies submitted a resolution demanding a parliamentary investigation. According to Zaman, Ergül recently stated that a “famous intelligence official” told the commission that “everybody was being wiretapped.” According to this officer’s secret testimony, “there were bugs in the houses of prime ministers, ministers, opposition leaders and that even opposition leaders had one another wiretapped.”

    Ergül continued, noting the officer’s claims that “there was such fierce competition between intelligence services [in 1996]. That’s why they sometimes exposed their weak sides. For instance, a fight between the Police Department, the Gendarmerie Intelligence Organization [JITEM] and MIT came to light in those days. Those wiretapped before started having others wiretapped when they came to power. We even found out that directors of state institutions were wiretapping ministers. All of the bidding processes going on for public properties used to be wiretapped.”

    Nevertheless, significant legal challenges have indeed been raised in recent weeks on the issue of wiretapping. On June 5, Hurriyet reported that Turkey’s Supreme Court overturned on appeals a decision of the High Criminal Court that had authorized the Turkish police (gendarmerie) with country-wide monitoring, “saying no institutions can be given an authority that covers monitoring in the entire country.” According to Justice Minister Mehmet Ali Sahin “the decision by the Supreme Court was quite extensive. My personal view is that the decision will cover the National Intelligence Organization and police, too.” The issue arose when the Justice Ministry objected to the criminal court’s authorization of the MIT and the gendarmerie to tap all phone, SMS and email traffic, citing potential abuse of authority and international human rights conventions.

    Naturally, given a turbulent common history, the issue of Turkish intelligence methods and practices is also of interest to many Greeks, and the subject is the subject of periodic discussion in the Greek media. However, as is inevitable in such scenarios the testimony of genuine experts is often confounded by uninformed speculation and conjecture. As in Turkey, where the public has reacted at various levels of hysteria regarding the most recent wiretapping charges- which turned out to be false – so it is in Greece that the public is prepared to expect the worst from its historic neighbor.

    The role of Turkish intelligence in large-scale human trafficking has also captivated the Greek public in recent months. In the early morning hours of Friday, April 25, a Greek coast guard vessel in the Eastern Aegean captured a Turkish craft which was carrying illegal Asian immigrants, some 3.5 nautical miles off the island of Lesvos. Also in the boat was a 38-year-old Turkish Army officer, Serkan Kaya. According to EmprosNet and other Greek news reports citing Greek intelligence sources, Kaya is a special unit operator who was also involved with the Turkish MIT. These reports claimed that Kaya was involved in the human trafficking partially in order to launch an intelligence gathering activity in the Greek islands. Moreover the Turkish officer was carrying with him Army credentials and a special weapon “used only by secret services,” that identified him with the security apparatus of Turkey.

    An interesting aspect of the role of the Turkish secret services in trafficking via the Aegean is illustrated by American demands, first made in 2006, to establish a customs control facility in Turkish port cities, beginning with Izmir. The request, so far stonewalled, is part of a program, the Customs Container Security Initiative, envisioned for over 30 foreign countries. In these countries, the US would like the ability to inspect all maritime traffic bound for American shores, to secure against nuclear components and other possible terrorist weapons.

    While several other countries have gone along with the American initiative, Turket has not. In fact, it has been the MIT in particular that has refused the US demands, reports Zaman, “over concerns of the ramifications for Turkey’s sovereignty rights. In a letter sent to the Undersecretariat for Customs and Foreign Trade, MIT enumerated its concerns, saying such a system could turn into an environment for espionage activity… Although the number of containers shipped from Istanbul to the US is three times the number of containers shipped from Izmir, it is not known why the US wanted Izmir to be the first port for such a system.” Whether Greek lobbying or concerns raised by the Greek intelligence services in Washington had anything to do with this choice would be an interesting question for researchers to explore.

    One recent claim that got attention in Athens was made by Greek journalist Aris Spinos, a well-known specialist in security matters. He spoke about the subject of Turkish intelligence practices in the first week of May 2008, on the late show of Greek nationwide television network, Extra Channel. Spinos claimed that certain private clinics in Ankara are actually owned by MIT, which uses them to perform plastic surgery on its best spies who are then sent ‘in disguise’ for missions abroad, something in line with the Soviet KGB model.

    Greeks have also claimed in recent years that MIT agents persuaded tourists from other countries to spy for Turkey. Usually, cases were reported during tourist season, when tourists come back and forth between places such as Bodrum-Kos (2 miles apart), or between islands like Lesvos, Chios and Samos and their respective Turkish port destinations, to try to capture videos and photos with Greek military bases, in order to sell them to the Turks and receive payments- sometimes, allegedly, in the form of paid vacations. However, this sort of speculation is the least likely to be corroborated and the most prone to exaggeration and misuse.

    Greek experts have also disclosed other aspects of the MIT’s believed operating habits. According to several articles in the Greek journal Stratigiki, the MIT has a special psy-ops unit, named TIB that has an extensive network in Europe and especially in Germany, where the largest Turkish diaspora in Europe resides. It is a large sector that employs academics, journalists and Turkish diaspora professionals, functioning broadly along the lines of Israel’s MOSSAD. Similarly, it is widely assumed that domestically the MIT maintains a very large network of civilian informants that span all levels of society and professional life in Turkey- something that goes back to the Cold War and likely even earlier.

    Following the collapse of the Soviet bloc and the resulting anxiety for both Turkey and Greece, a ‘hot’ period ensued between 1989-1996, when a ‘secret war’ erupted between Greek and Turkish intelligence services, that involved assassinations, arson, high-level psychological attacks, and heavy espionage activity. The Turks accused Greece on supporting the Kurdish PKK fighters (PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan was later protected in Greece and Greek diplomatic installations until being kidnapped by the Turks in Kenya in 1998). The tensions escalated to the point of potential armed conflict over the contested islet of Imia near Kalymnos in early 1996.

    Today, numerous unfolding events indicate that Greek and Turkish machinations are going to be amplified by the actions of larger powers. For example, Israel recently conducted a robust air force exercise over Greek waters, which American and other analysts interpreted as a warning of an impending strike against Iran. Turkey, on the other hand, has had to develop closer ties with Iranian security services, as both countries share the problem of Kurdish separatists. How the fortunes of Greece and Turkey would wax or wane in the event of an Israeli (and, potentially, American) war with Iran is just one of the many fascinating questions to emerge from this. Given the complexity and high stakes of international relations in the Balkans and Middle East today, it appears likely that the traditional war of one-upsmanship between Greece and Turkey will continue into the foreseeable future, and that their intelligence services will, as always, be at the forefront of this battle.

    Source: Balkanalysis.com, 6/22/2008

  • SPEAKER PELOSI NAMES ARMENIAN CAUCUS MEMBER CONGRESSMAN MCGOVERN CO-CHAIR OF CONGRESSIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS CAUCUS

    SPEAKER PELOSI NAMES ARMENIAN CAUCUS MEMBER CONGRESSMAN MCGOVERN CO-CHAIR OF CONGRESSIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS CAUCUS

    SPEAKER PELOSI NAMES ARMENIAN CAUCUS MEMBER CONGRESSMAN MCGOVERN CO-CHAIR OF CONGRESSIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS CAUCUS

    Armenian Assembly welcomes McGovern’s appointment

    The Armenian Assembly of America welcomes Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) recent selection of Congressman Jim McGovern (D-MA) Assembly Congressional Relations Associate Bianka Dodov, Rep. Jim McGovern and Assembly Executive Director Bryan Ardouny to replace the late Congressman Tom Lantos, the Co-Founder of the Congressional Human Rights Caucus, as the new Co-Chair, the AAA reports. Chairman Lantos was an ardent defender of human rights throughout his distinguished career in Congress. During the 110th Congress, Lantos strongly supported efforts to end the genocide in Darfur, as well as voted for House Resolution 106, which combats ongoing attempts to deny the historical truth of the Armenian Genocide.

    In fact, last October, Lantos, in his role as Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee voted in support of this critical human rights bill and stated, “This is one of those events which has to be settled once and for all: 1.5 million utterly innocent Armenian men, women and children were slaughtered. And the Turkish government, until now, has intimidated the Congress of the United States from taking this measure. I think it’s important, at a time when genocides are going on in Darfur and elsewhere, not to be an accomplice in sweeping an important genocide under the rug.”

    “I am honored by Speaker Pelosi’s decision and look forward to working with my colleagues to address critical issues facing us today,” said Congressman McGovern. “From ending the current genocidal campaign in Darfur and preventing future genocides by reaffirming the historical truth of the Armenian Genocide, I want to ensure that this important body carries forward the legacy of the great Tom Lantos,” McGovern continued. McGovern, like Lantos, strongly supports a wide range of human rights legislation, including H.Res.106. In addition, he is an active member of the Armenian Caucus, serves as Vice-Chairman of the House Rules Committee and is a member of the House Budget Committee.

    “Congressman McGovern understands the important role Congress can play in not only bringing attention to human rights abuses, but also in shaping solutions to address them. The Armenian Assembly is committed to working with the Caucus on issues of mutual concern,” said Assembly Executive Director Bryan Ardouny.

    AZG Armenian Daily #127, 04/07/2008

  • Russia-Turkey: Blue Stream is not enough

    Russia-Turkey: Blue Stream is not enough

    01/07/2008 19:45

    MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Fedyashin) – Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is to hold talks with his Turkish counterpart Ali Babacan when he visits Ankara on July 2.

    He will be also received by President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Such a high-level welcome usually indicates that the host side attaches great importance to a visit, or that the trip is a prelude to a visit by the head of state. In some cases, both are true. A visit by President Dmitry Medvedev to Turkey, our major Black Sea neighbor and Russia’s special trade and economic partner, would be timely.

    Russia and Turkey have many issues to discuss, apart from their routine agenda: settlement in the Middle East, Iraq, and on Cyprus; the Iranian nuclear program; the situation in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, and Kosovo. One of the major issues is trade and economic cooperation.

    Trade between the two countries is booming. Last year, it was $22.5 billion, and in the first four months of this year, it soared more than 60% to reach $10.6 billion. Russian-Turkish trade in 2008 is expected to break all records of 2007. Russia accounts for a quarter of all projects built by Turkish companies abroad. Last year, they were awarded three billion dollars worth of contracts.

    It is a pity, then, that the visit will be marred by the latest tourist scandal, whereby Turkish firms refused to provide accommodation for Russian tourists who had already sent them their money. But such problems are inevitable when the flow of the Russian tourists is rapidly on the rise. This sensitive issue will not be at the top of the agenda, but Mr. Lavrov will have to talk about the record of Turkish companies in fulfilling their commitments to their Russian partners. The situation here leaves much to be desired, and the problems are not confined to the tourism industry.

    This year, Russia has blacklisted foreign companies that are not complying with their obligations to Russian partners, and avoiding implementation of rulings by international commercial courts of arbitration. The compilers of the blacklist have not disclosed the number of Turkish companies on their register, but it is rumored that there are dozens of them. It is rather difficult to monitor companies with a bad record because in Turkey a host of firms (legal entities) may be registered in the name of one individual. Therefore, while checking on the reliability of future partners, Russian businessmen are advised to ignore the name of the company, and to pay closer attention to its owners and managers. This will help them discard a dishonest partner.

    Many Russian medium-sized businesses are reluctant to deal with Turkey because it is next to impossible for foreigners to win a suit against dishonest Turkish companies. The national courts prefer to help their compatriots. Turkish companies are also adept at the mechanism of bankruptcy to dodge the implementation of legal decisions, meaning foreigners seldom receive any money even if they do win a case in court.

    Although these problems pose a real and substantial impediment to the development of partnership, Turkey and Russia have more important problems to discuss. Fundamentally, the established system of trade and economic ties has long become too narrow for Moscow and Ankara. For the last ten years it was based on the famous Blue Stream project. It is certainly unique and was well managed. It was the backbone for all other projects, and even determined our foreign policy partnership at both regional and global levels. But now it has become too small to embrace our new projects. For all the optimistic figures and facts, reliance on Blue Stream is likely to become a stumbling block to widening cooperation. Russia and Turkey have to put it on a new level.

    They should expand their contacts in such major spheres as the nuclear power industry. The Atomstroyexport (Russia’s nuclear power equipment and service export monopoly) is ready to provide Turkey with a project for the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) that will be less expensive and more reliable than its American counterparts. Such NPPs will help Turkey to consolidate its positions at the regional energy market, especially considering Iran’s nuclear energy problems. Moscow has long been hinting to Ankara that it is best to give priority to economic expediency, especially in the energy industry.

    The two countries will not be able to strip their relations of politics. But it would be sensible to thoroughly weigh all economic and political issues. Russia has long been ready for this.

  • TURKISH POLICE DETAIN SENIOR RETIRED GENERALS

    TURKISH POLICE DETAIN SENIOR RETIRED GENERALS

    By Gareth Jenkins
    Tuesday, July 1, 2008

    Early on the morning of July 1, the Turkish police detained 24 hard-line secularists during a series of raids in Ankara and Istanbul. Those taken into custody included retired General Sener Eruygur, the former commander of the Turkish Gendarmerie; retired General Hursit Tolon, the former commander of the First Army; Sinan Aygun, the head of the Ankara Chamber of Commerce; and Mustafa Balbay, the Ankara representative of Cumhuriyet daily newspaper (NTV, CNNTurk, July 1).

    The Turkish media reported that several of the arrests came during police raids on offices belonging to the Association for Ataturkist Thought (ADD), a secularist NGO that was founded in 1989 to promote the ideals of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk (1881-1938), who founded the modern Turkish republic in 1923. The ADD is currently headed by General Eruygur. In the spring of 2007, the ADD was one of the main organizers of a series of mass public protests in which hundreds of thousands of secular Turks took to the streets in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to prevent the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) from appointing Abdullah Gul as the country’s president.

    It is thought that those taken into custody on July 1 are being held on suspicion of links to a shadowy Turkish ultranationalist group known as Ergenekon (see Terrorism Focus, January 29). The group first came to public attention in June 2007, when the Turkish police discovered 27 hand grenades and a small quantity of explosives in a house in the Istanbul suburb of Umraniye. Subsequent investigations eventually led to the arrest in January of retired Gendarmerie General Veli Kucuk, the alleged founder and leader of Ergenekon, and 12 associates.

    During the 1990s in particular, General Kucuk was heavily involved in operations, mostly targeting members and supporters of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), conducted by the network of covert groups and organizations known collectively in Turkish as the derin devlet or “deep state.” Kucuk retired from active service in 2000. He later turned his attention to the threat he believed the AKP posed to the principle of secularism enshrined in the Turkish constitution as one of the defining characteristics of the Turkish republic. Documents leaked to the Turkish media suggest that Ergenekon planned to conduct a campaign of violence to destabilize the AKP government and perhaps trigger a military coup.

    Ergenekon has been a gift to the AKP and its supporters in the Islamist media, who have used Kucuk’s presence to try to portray the group as being controlled by the Turkish military. Even though Ergenekon was unraveled before it could launch its campaign of violence, it has also been used by Turkish Islamists to bolster a tendency toward denial and willful ignorance when it comes to violence staged in the name of Islam. Since the arrests in January, the Islamist press has regaled its readers with a string of revelations quoting unidentified sources as attributing nearly every recent act of Islamist violence in Turkey to Ergenekon.

    In truth, Ergenekon appears to have been mostly composed of “deep state” has-beens and wannabes. Despite the presence of experienced covert operatives such as Kucuk, it was very shoddily organized with little attention given to even the most basic tradecraft. There is no doubt that serving and retired members of the Turkish military were personally acquainted with Kucuk. It is even possible that some individuals were aware that he was organizing something and were sympathetic to his aims. But there is no evidence to suggest that the Turkish military was behind Ergenekon. Indeed, it is likely that, if one of the most powerful and best equipped militaries in the region–and one with a long history of covert operations–were to attempt to mastermind a violent campaign to destabilize a civilian government, it would have armed its operatives with something more effective than a single crate of grenades.

    Nevertheless, the AKP-controlled Interior Ministry, which is responsible for police operations, has devoted considerable resources to the Ergenekon investigation in the apparent hope of discrediting the staunchly secularist Turkish military. The Turkish authorities have traditionally been reluctant to use any designation that could be interpreted as implicitly associating Islam with terrorism. As a result, both violent Islamist organizations and potentially violent secularist groups are described as “rightist” and fall within the remit of the same department in the anti-terrorism branch of the Turkish police. Over the last six months in particular, the Interior Ministry has been diverting so many resources to the Ergenekon investigation that members of the “rightist” department in the police are now having difficulty monitoring much more dangerous violent Islamist groups.

    The detentions of July 1 will further strengthen the impression among many secularists in Turkey that the AKP is more concerned with its ideological struggle against hard-line secularists than with law and order. Even if Eruygur and Tolon are subsequently proved to have been linked to Ergenekon, no one seriously imagines that they posed an imminent danger to public security. Most extraordinarily, the detentions came only hours before Public Prosecutor Abdurrahman Yalcinkaya was due to deliver his final presentation in the ongoing case before the Constitutional Court for the closure of the AKP (see EDM, March 17). The detentions will probably be seized upon by the AKP media to try to bolster the AKP’s democratic credentials; but for many others, they will merely reinforce doubts about the AKP’s interpretation of democracy. At a time when the Turkish economy is already looking increasingly fragile, it is difficult to understand why, even if there were evidence against those taken into custody, the Interior Ministry would conduct the raids on a day when Turkish markets were going to be highly vulnerable to any suggestion of an escalation in tension. Not surprisingly, the Turkish financial markets went into freefall as soon as the news of the detentions broke.

    The Turkish media reported that both Eruygur and Tolon were seized from the military lodgings where, not least for security reasons, most high-ranking military personnel live after retirement. Whatever motive the Interior Ministry may have had, there is no doubt that the vast majority of the Turkish officer corps will regard the timing and manner of the detentions as a direct invitation to a trial of strength. It is not a challenge that is likely to be ignored. Even if the AKP eventually wins, which is not a foregone conclusion, the price in terms of social and political stability could be very high.