Author: Aylin D. Miller

  • Kurdish Exiles in Germany Feel Pain of Protracted War at Home

    Kurdish Exiles in Germany Feel Pain of Protracted War at Home

    When twin bombings ripped through a busy square in Istanbul Sunday, some in Turkey blamed the militant Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) for the blasts. That renewed focus on the group doesn’t bode well for many Kurds abroad.

     

    Citing security sources, CNN-Turk television said that intelligence reports suggested the group was planning a bombing campaign in Turkish cities.

     

    Though the Firat news agency reported Monday that the PKK had denied responsibility for the blast — which killed 17 and injured more than 150, making it the worst in the city since 2003 — suspicions about Kurdish involvement still abound.

     

    “There are signs of links to the separatist group,” Istanbul Governor Muammer Guler told reporters.

     

    “Of course it’s the PKK,” Orhan Balci, a 38-year-old textile businessman from the area told Reuters news service. “This has nothing to do with politics, this is all about the PKK.”

     

    Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday could not be called out into naming the PKK as the culprits behind the pair of bombings saying only, “Turkey’s fight against terrorism will continue” and that “the terrorist group’s biggest aim is to make propaganda.”

     

    Fears of a foray to western Turkey

    Whether responsible or not, the rebel movement has been blamed for a number of events in Turkey since its inception in 1984. The most recent headline-making action before this weekend’s blast — the kidnapping and eventual release of three German climbers from the slopes of Mount Ararat — has led many to worry that the battle for an autonomous Kurdistan may spread into western Turkey.

     

    This fear poses a special problem for Germany, which is home to one of the largest Turkish expatriate communities and provides shelter for more than half a million Kurds. Much of the fear and hostility felt toward ethnic Kurds in Turkey as a consequence of the PKK’s actions has long simmered among the immigrant population in Germany.

     

    In November, demonstrations over Turkey’s foray into Kurdish territory in northern Iraq broke out in Berlin’s Neu-Koelln neighborhood and members of the Turkish nationalist “Gray Wolf” gang attacked people at a Kurdish culture center in the German capital. In February, the Berliner Zeitung reported on the bullying and harassment a 7-year-old Kurd received at school after wearing a scarf in the colors of Kurdistan.

     

    “We’re trying to live in peace with the Turks,” Evrim Baba, a representative of the Kurdish community in Berlin told the newspaper.

     

    “We want peace,” a young man named Achmed told DW-WORLD after the November attacks.

     

    A community divided

     

    That peace has proven difficult to attain. Even among members of the Kurdish community itself, there is disagreement about the PKK. Though Germany officially banned the PKK in 1993, many of the exiles here openly sympathize with the organization’s struggle to obtain an autonomous homeland in the triangular area of southern Turkey, northern Iraq, and northwest Iran.

     

    “The Kurds have an incredible debt toward this organization,” Mahmut Seven, who runs the only Kurdish daily newspaper Yeni Özgür Politika, told the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel. “They gave us back our pride and our identity.”

     

    Baktheyar Ibrahim, an Iraqi-Kurd who had to flee a well-paying government job in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, sees things another way. As a supporter of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan political party, he believes in the attainment of an independent Kurdistan through democratic processes. The group, which supports Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, often finds itself at odds with other organizations fighting for the same goals.

     

    But the PKK has made things especially difficult for Ibrahim and for other exiles like him in recent months as Germany’s instituted a major crackdown on the Kurdish population to curb PKK sympathies.

     

    Kurdish associations in Hannover, Kassel, Bremen, Koblenz and Berlin have all been raided by German security agencies and suspected members of the separatist movement taken into custody.

     

    Roj TV, the sole Kurdish television station in the country, was banned last June, followed shortly by a ban on the production company Viko, which is located in the western Germany city of Wuppertal.

     

    Citing political reforms in Turkey, the German government has carried out a number of asylum revocations, making the search for political refuge more difficult and angering moderate Kurds who don’t see the situation in Turkey as having improved.

     

    “Go back to Turkey?” asked Mostafa, a 32-year-old refugee from Istanbul who’s since become a naturalized German. “For me, that’s impossible.”  

    Courtney Tenz

  • What Would Ataturk Do?

    What Would Ataturk Do?

    By ANDREW HIGGINS

    ANKARA, Turkey — The Ataturk Thought Association, zealous guardian of the secular creed that guides Turkey, never thought it would come to this.

    Its chairman, a retired four-star general, is in jail. Its offices — plastered with portraits of modern Turkey’s founding father, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk — have been raided by police. Several of its computer hard drives have been seized by investigators. They’re hunting for evidence of plots by hard-line secularists to topple Turkey’s mildly Islamic government.

    1
    Associated Press
    Pro-secular demonstrators, one of them holding a portrait of Ataturk, left, chanted slogans during a protest in Istanbul earlier this month.

    The assault, declares Suay Karaman, a land surveyer now filling in for the Thought Association’s imprisoned chairman, shows that “there is no such thing as moderate Islam.” Raids in Ankara and Istanbul came in the weeks before the country’s Constitutional Court on Monday began considering the secularists’ own offensive: a suit to outlaw the governing party for violating secular mandates Ataturk enshrined in 1923. (Please see related article on Page A10.)

    A final battle looms to decide whether Turkey remains a secular republic faithful to Ataturk, says Mr. Karaman, or instead “becomes like Saudi Arabia.”

    Warnings of the demise of Ataturk’s legacy have been around almost since he died 70 years ago. A relentless modernizer, hearty drinker and fan of the fox trot, the founder of the Turkish Republic — his name means “father of the Turks” — had issues with Islam. He shut down Islamic schools, banned Islamic garb and opened a German brewery in his new capital, Ankara. His was hardly the path of least resistance in a land that is 99% Muslim, once ruled Mecca and was for centuries home to the Caliph, Islam’s supreme leader. Yet Ataturk’s way prevailed for decades.

    Now, says Mr. Karaman, it faces grave peril. In February, Turkey’s elected government — led by observant Muslims whose wives mostly wear headscarves — moved to let pious female students cover their hair on university campuses, something that had been banned for years as an affront to secular traditions.

    The Constitutional Court quickly put a stop to that, and the chief prosecutor, an ardent secularist, filed suit in March, asserting that the governing party poses a “clear and present” danger and must be stopped before it imposes Islamic law. Outlawing the Justice and Development, or AK, Party could rock its leaders — and the country — politically, though they likely could reorganize under another banner without giving up power. Tensions were stoked late Sunday, on the eve of the court taking up the case, by two bombs in Istanbul that killed 17 people. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

    The headscarf effort, says Mr. Karaman, along with the arrest of his boss and scores of others, has exposed what he calls the governing party’s hidden agenda — a plan to turn Turkey into an Islamic theocracy. Chanting “Turkey will not be Iran,” activists in the Ataturk Thought Association held a noisy protest on July 19 in Istanbul, waving portraits of their jailed chairman, Sener Eruygur, and of Ataturk. A few days later, more than two dozen people were arrested as part of a sprawling search for antigovernment plotters. Mr. Eruygur hasn’t been charged; his lawyer has said he is innocent of wrongdoing.

    Many, including foreign diplomats, scoff at the notion that Turkey now is governed by a cabal of closet fundamentalists. The AK Party generally is friendly to the West — friendlier than many secular activists, in fact. Party officials deny harboring anti-Ataturk tendencies.

    One thing is clear: Ataturk worship, the world’s most enduring personality cult, still holds this increasingly prosperous nation of more than 70 million people in its thrall. Ataturk shows scant sign of going the way of his contemporaries. Vladimir Lenin lies in Red Square but is barely mentioned in Russia now, except as a butt of jokes. Even Mao Zedong, embalmed in Tiananmen Square, has slipped from his pedestal: The Chinese Communist Party’s official view of him is 70% good, 30% bad.

    Untouchable Ataturk

    Ataturk, revered for defeating invading British, French and Greek forces, is untouchable. His mausoleum in Ankara drew more than 12 million visitors last year, up by four million from 2006. The constitution bans all deviation from the “reforms and principles” of “the immortal leader and the unrivalled hero.” It is illegal in Turkey to publicly curse him. Virtually nobody, including members of the AK Party, disses him, at least not in public. One young, headscarf-wearing woman recently said on TV, “I do not like him.” She is being investigated by prosecutors.

    Politicians invoke Ataturk’s name to justify starkly different agendas. Even Ataturk’s long-deceased wife, whom he divorced, has been dragged into furor: Did she or didn’t she observe Islamic custom and cover her head? An AK Party legislator has contended that she did. That question is among the issues to be mulled by the Constitutional Court.

    Just as Muslim activists mine the Quran for verses to boost their cause, Turkey’s hard-line secularists and their foes delve into Ataturk’s voluminous writings and speeches — Turkey’s secular scripture. The sheer volume of Ataturk’s words gives plenty of scope for argument: a single speech he gave in 1927 lasted 36 hours, spread over six days.

    For Mr. Karaman of the Ataturk Thought Association, a bastion of Turkey’s secular establishment, the key text is one of Ataturk’s shorter works, a 230-word address to Turkish youth. It warns against “malevolent people at home and abroad,” and urges ceaseless struggle against any “traitors” who worm themselves into power. That dark fear, says Mr. Karaman, has taken shape in the form of the AK Party. Among signs of this, he says, are the woes of his group.

    The governing party’s own claim of allegiance to Ataturk only demonstrates its deviousness, says Mr. Karaman. When Recep Tayyip Erdogan, now Turkey’s prime minister, launched the AK Party in 2001, he did so in a hall bedecked with a giant portrait of Ataturk. The event began with a minute’s silence in Ataturk’s memory. “All fake,” huffs Mr. Karaman.

    Suat Kiniklioglu, an AK Party legislator, says he has “no problems at all” with “Ataturk’s principles” but the key issue is “how we interpret them.” Ataturk’s “true genius,” he says, was his “ability to adapt to change.” Clinging to details from the 1920s, he says, “will not work.”

    Secularism a la Ataturk is not a simple formula. Unlike America’s founding fathers, who separated church and state, Ataturk did not so much split Islam from the state as subordinate it to the state. He abolished the post of Caliph and placed all mosques and Muslim clerics under a government department. At the same time, he purged religion from other state agencies.

    Ataturk, a very stylish dresser himself, clearly didn’t like traditional Islamic garb, viewing it as an emblem of backwardness. His best-known comments on the dress question came in 1925 when he declared “international” — that is, Western — dress as “very important and appropriate for our nation. We shall wear it.”

    Legislation he introduced, known as the Hat Law, did not explicitly prohibit veils or headscarves and focused instead on banning fezzes and turbans for men. The ban on headscarves in colleges dates not from Ataturk, say its opponents, but from a 1980 coup by the military, which also tried, in vain, to crack down on miniskirts. Mr. Karaman says the spirit, if not the letter of the 1925 law, requires modern dress for both sexes.

    A Furious Row

    During a discussion of the 2006 budget by legislators, a furious row erupted over Islam, Ataturk and headwear, when AK Party legislator Musa Uzunkaya asserted that Ataturk’s wife, Latife Hanim, attended meetings at the presidential mansion in the 1920s with her hair covered. Was she a “reactionary?” he asked. The question enraged ardent secularists, who saw it as defiling Ataturk’s memory.

    Ipek Calislar, the author of a biography of Turkey’s first first lady, says she sometimes hid her hair only so conservatives could not push Ataturk “into a corner because of her dress.” It wasn’t an endorsement of Islamic norms, says Ms. Calislar: “People are arguing about this in a very stupid way.”

    Next to his desk, Mr. Karaman keeps a big photograph of Ataturk in military uniform. Ataturk, he predicts, will ultimately triumph. His hero, he says, would be in no doubt about how to confront any assaults on Turkish secularism were he still alive today: “He would put his army boots back on and start fighting.”

    –Farnaz Fassihi contributed to this article.

    Write to Andrew Higgins at andrew.higgins@wsj.com2

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  • Recep Tayyip Erdogan makes unity plea after Istanbul bombings

    Recep Tayyip Erdogan makes unity plea after Istanbul bombings

    Suna Erdem in Istanbul
     
    Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister, prayed with thousands of mourners yesterday at the funeral of victims of Sunday’s bomb attack in Istanbul. He called for a united response to the threat of terror and dismissed concerns over the possibility of his ruling party being closed down by a court ruling.

    “Today is a day for unity and togetherness. The more support we can give each other and the more we can give terrorism the cold shoulder, the more successful we will be as a nation,” said a sombre Mr Erdogan.

    He was speaking after carrying a flag-draped coffin and embracing mourners at a mosque in the Gungoren district of Istanbul. The funeral was held for 10 of the 17 victims killed there on Sunday night. More than 150 people were injured.

    Turkey was shocked by the ferocity of the double bombing, which came at a time of political turmoil. On Friday charges were brought against 86 alleged ultra-nationalists for an anti-Government campaign of murder, terror and civil unrest.

    Yesterday the country’s Constitutional Court began deliberating a controversial case to shut down Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AK) over accusations of pro-Islamic activities.

    Nobody has claimed responsibility for Sunday’s attack — a small bomb apparently designed to lure a crowd, followed by a larger one intended to cause maximum casualties. Initial reports pointed to the secessionist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), but the group, which usually hits rural military targets, has denied responsibility and condemned the attackers.

    Mr Erdogan angrily denied rumours that he had cancelled a nearby appointment due two hours before the explosions. Because of the timing of the bombings there is speculation that the Ergenekon group was involved. It is a shadowy ultra-nationalist entity which, according to Friday’s charge sheet, is active within the security forces, the judiciary, business, politics and media.

    “The atmosphere in Turkey is very tense,” said Deniz Ulke Aribogan, rector of Bahcesehir University. “The PKK could have done this . . . but to be honest it does not fit in with the PKK’s general strategy. This could even turn out to have links with Ergenekon.”

    The court case against the ruling party and the Ergenekon investigation go to the heart of the struggle between Turkey’s secularist elite — which includes the judiciary, the politically powerful military and the bureaucracy — and the Government of Mr Erdogan, a political Islamist turned EU advocate whose supporters range from devout Muslims to free-market liberals and socialists.

    Critics of the court case against the AK party say that it is more of a power struggle between Turkey’s Establishment and the new guard rather than a classic secularist-Islamist showdown. They argue that the decision by the constitutional court, expected within days, will determine whether Turkish democracy has matured after decades of party closures, military coups and assassinations.

    “The closure case is indefensible both in terms of democracy and the law,” said Hasan Cemal, a veteran liberal commentator who writes for the mainstream Milliyet newspaper. “We can only hope that the High Court is aware of this and will reach a historic decision that could be the turning point of Turkish democracy.”

    Seven of the 11 members of the court, seen as a bastion of Turkey’s secularist Establishment, must vote in favour for AK to be closed.

    They could also ban Mr Erdogan, President Gül and 69 other AK members from party politics for five years.

    If the party is banned, its rump could re-form under another name and the banned members could run as independents. In theory a legal loophole would allow Mr Erdogan to win a seat as an independent and continue to control the Government.

    But while the damage could be minimal for AK — which believes that it will still be the biggest party, particularly if it appeals for the sympathy vote — an outright ban could jeopardise Turkey’s newly resurgent economy, its strong ties with the West, its European Union membership talks and its recent role as Middle East mediator.

    Party insiders expect a compromise verdict — which would keep AK open but deprive it of Treasury funding. This would amount to a slap on the wrist for the Government.

    The evidence against AK in the 161-case indictment has been derided as flimsy, and is based largely on reported comments and a parliamentary vote to loosen restrictions on university education for women wearing the Muslim headscarf. That vote — also supported by a nationalist party that has escaped censure — has been overturned by the Constitutional Court.

  • Turkey to be number nine economy in the world by 2050

    Turkey to be number nine economy in the world by 2050

    Global investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a report that Turkey would grow to become a nearly 6 trillion dollar economy by 2050, the 9th largest economy in the world, moving ahead of G7 countries such as Japan, Germany, Italy, Canada and France.

    Turkey to be number nine economy in the world by 2050

    The report said that Turkey would become a part of the global balance of power if it maintains its policies, and the country’s national income per capita would be around $20,000-$25,000 in 2024 and exceed $30,000 in 2033. Turkey’s national income per capita would reach $60,000-65,000 by the year 2050, according to the report.

    The report also revealed that China would be the largest economy in 2050 with a nominal gross domestic product close to $70 trillion ahead of the United States, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico, Britain and Turkey.

    Photo: AFP

    Source: Hurriyet, July 29, 2008

  • What Would Ataturk Do?

    What Would Ataturk Do?

    PAGE ONE

    What Would Ataturk Do?
    Turkey Battles Over Long-Dead Leader

    By ANDREW HIGGINS
    July 29, 2008; Page A1

    ANKARA, Turkey — The Ataturk Thought Association, zealous guardian of the secular creed that guides Turkey, never thought it would come to this.

    Its chairman, a retired four-star general, is in jail. Its offices — plastered with portraits of modern Turkey’s founding father, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk — have been raided by police. Several of its computer hard drives have been seized by investigators. They’re hunting for evidence of plots by hard-line secularists to topple Turkey’s mildly Islamic government.

    The assault, declares Suay Karaman, a land surveyer now filling in for the Thought Association’s imprisoned chairman, shows that “there is no such thing as moderate Islam.” Raids in Ankara and Istanbul came in the weeks before the country’s Constitutional Court on Monday began considering the secularists’ own offensive: a suit to outlaw the governing party for violating secular mandates Ataturk enshrined in 1923. (Please see related article on Page A10.)

    A final battle looms to decide whether Turkey remains a secular republic faithful to Ataturk, says Mr. Karaman, or instead “becomes like Saudi Arabia.”

    Warnings of the demise of Ataturk’s legacy have been around almost since he died 70 years ago. A relentless modernizer, hearty drinker and fan of the fox trot, the founder of the Turkish Republic — his name means “father of the Turks” — had issues with Islam. He shut down Islamic schools, banned Islamic garb and opened a German brewery in his new capital, Ankara. His was hardly the path of least resistance in a land that is 99% Muslim, once ruled Mecca and was for centuries home to the Caliph, Islam’s supreme leader. Yet Ataturk’s way prevailed for decades.

    Now, says Mr. Karaman, it faces grave peril. In February, Turkey’s elected government — led by observant Muslims whose wives mostly wear headscarves — moved to let pious female students cover their hair on university campuses, something that had been banned for years as an affront to secular traditions.

    The Constitutional Court quickly put a stop to that, and the chief prosecutor, an ardent secularist, filed suit in March, asserting that the governing party poses a “clear and present” danger and must be stopped before it imposes Islamic law. Outlawing the Justice and Development, or AK, Party could rock its leaders — and the country — politically, though they likely could reorganize under another banner without giving up power. Tensions were stoked late Sunday, on the eve of the court taking up the case, by two bombs in Istanbul that killed 17 people. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

    The headscarf effort, says Mr. Karaman, along with the arrest of his boss and scores of others, has exposed what he calls the governing party’s hidden agenda — a plan to turn Turkey into an Islamic theocracy. Chanting “Turkey will not be Iran,” activists in the Ataturk Thought Association held a noisy protest on July 19 in Istanbul, waving portraits of their jailed chairman, Sener Eruygur, and of Ataturk. A few days later, more than two dozen people were arrested as part of a sprawling search for antigovernment plotters. Mr. Eruygur hasn’t been charged; his lawyer has said he is innocent of wrongdoing.

    Many, including foreign diplomats, scoff at the notion that Turkey now is governed by a cabal of closet fundamentalists. The AK Party generally is friendly to the West — friendlier than many secular activists, in fact. Party officials deny harboring anti-Ataturk tendencies.

    One thing is clear: Ataturk worship, the world’s most enduring personality cult, still holds this increasingly prosperous nation of more than 70 million people in its thrall. Ataturk shows scant sign of going the way of his contemporaries. Vladimir Lenin lies in Red Square but is barely mentioned in Russia now, except as a butt of jokes. Even Mao Zedong, embalmed in Tiananmen Square, has slipped from his pedestal: The Chinese Communist Party’s official view of him is 70% good, 30% bad.

    Untouchable Ataturk

    Ataturk, revered for defeating invading British, French and Greek forces, is untouchable. His mausoleum in Ankara drew more than 12 million visitors last year, up by four million from 2006. The constitution bans all deviation from the “reforms and principles” of “the immortal leader and the unrivalled hero.” It is illegal in Turkey to publicly curse him. Virtually nobody, including members of the AK Party, disses him, at least not in public. One young, headscarf-wearing woman recently said on TV, “I do not like him.” She is being investigated by prosecutors.

    Politicians invoke Ataturk’s name to justify starkly different agendas. Even Ataturk’s long-deceased wife, whom he divorced, has been dragged into furor: Did she or didn’t she observe Islamic custom and cover her head? An AK Party legislator has contended that she did. That question is among the issues to be mulled by the Constitutional Court.

    Just as Muslim activists mine the Quran for verses to boost their cause, Turkey’s hard-line secularists and their foes delve into Ataturk’s voluminous writings and speeches — Turkey’s secular scripture. The sheer volume of Ataturk’s words gives plenty of scope for argument: a single speech he gave in 1927 lasted 36 hours, spread over six days.

    For Mr. Karaman of the Ataturk Thought Association, a bastion of Turkey’s secular establishment, the key text is one of Ataturk’s shorter works, a 230-word address to Turkish youth. It warns against “malevolent people at home and abroad,” and urges ceaseless struggle against any “traitors” who worm themselves into power. That dark fear, says Mr. Karaman, has taken shape in the form of the AK Party. Among signs of this, he says, are the woes of his group.

    The governing party’s own claim of allegiance to Ataturk only demonstrates its deviousness, says Mr. Karaman. When Recep Tayyip Erdogan, now Turkey’s prime minister, launched the AK Party in 2001, he did so in a hall bedecked with a giant portrait of Ataturk. The event began with a minute’s silence in Ataturk’s memory. “All fake,” huffs Mr. Karaman.

    Suat Kiniklioglu, an AK Party legislator, says he has “no problems at all” with “Ataturk’s principles” but the key issue is “how we interpret them.” Ataturk’s “true genius,” he says, was his “ability to adapt to change.” Clinging to details from the 1920s, he says, “will not work.”

    Secularism a la Ataturk is not a simple formula. Unlike America’s founding fathers, who separated church and state, Ataturk did not so much split Islam from the state as subordinate it to the state. He abolished the post of Caliph and placed all mosques and Muslim clerics under a government department. At the same time, he purged religion from other state agencies.

    Ataturk, a very stylish dresser himself, clearly didn’t like traditional Islamic garb, viewing it as an emblem of backwardness. His best-known comments on the dress question came in 1925 when he declared “international” — that is, Western — dress as “very important and appropriate for our nation. We shall wear it.”

    Legislation he introduced, known as the Hat Law, did not explicitly prohibit veils or headscarves and focused instead on banning fezzes and turbans for men. The ban on headscarves in colleges dates not from Ataturk, say its opponents, but from a 1980 coup by the military, which also tried, in vain, to crack down on miniskirts. Mr. Karaman says the spirit, if not the letter of the 1925 law, requires modern dress for both sexes.

    A Furious Row

    During a discussion of the 2006 budget by legislators, a furious row erupted over Islam, Ataturk and headwear, when AK Party legislator Musa Uzunkaya asserted that Ataturk’s wife, Latife Hanim, attended meetings at the presidential mansion in the 1920s with her hair covered. Was she a “reactionary?” he asked. The question enraged ardent secularists, who saw it as defiling Ataturk’s memory.

    Ipek Calislar, the author of a biography of Turkey’s first first lady, says she sometimes hid her hair only so conservatives could not push Ataturk “into a corner because of her dress.” It wasn’t an endorsement of Islamic norms, says Ms. Calislar: “People are arguing about this in a very stupid way.”

    Next to his desk, Mr. Karaman keeps a big photograph of Ataturk in military uniform. Ataturk, he predicts, will ultimately triumph. His hero, he says, would be in no doubt about how to confront any assaults on Turkish secularism were he still alive today: “He would put his army boots back on and start fighting.”

    –Farnaz Fassihi contributed to this article.

    Write to Andrew Higgins at andrew.higgins@wsj.com

    Source: Wall Street Journal, July 29, 2008

  • Comment from Jane’s Middle East Editor on the Bombings in Turkey

    Comment from Jane’s Middle East Editor on the Bombings in Turkey

    London , UK (Jul. 28, 2008) — David Hartwell, Jane’s Middle East Editor, commented “Turkish authorities are probably correct in their early assessment that the Partiya Karkaren Kurdistan was responsible for the attack, which was probably carried out in retaliation for a series of raids that took place last week by the Turkish military targeting Partiya Karkaren Kurdistan bases in northern Iraq.”

    Will Hartley, Editor, Jane’s Terrorism & Insurgency Centre , further added “There is a slight possibility the attack could be linked to current investigations into the activity of Ergenekon – a ‘deep state’ nationalist group accused of a number of violent acts. It could be significant the attacks happened on the same weekend that the indictment of alleged Ergenekon members, which the authorities have been preparing for over a year now, was finally made public. However, at this time, and in the absence of more evidence, the Workers’ Party of Kurdistan ( Partiya Karkaren Kurdistan: PKK) remains the most likely culprits – although a PKK spokesman has denied the group was responsible, and the operation is not typical of the group’s modus operandi.

    ‘Modus operandi’ or MO refers to the signature style of a group/incident. In the absence of concrete evidence or claims of responsibility, matching the known MO of groups with the MO of an incident is often the only thing analysts can use to assess who may have been responsible. In this case the MO was a mass casualty attack aimed at urban civilian targets and employing coordinated twin bombs (emplaced), with the secondary device timed to cause maximum damage among first-responders.

    The Workers’ Party of Kurdistan (Partiya Karkaren Kurdistan: PKK) is Turkey’s most active insurgent group.

    Source: Jane’s Information Group, 28 July 2008