IN one year, US-Turkey relations have moved from tension to co-operation. This was the focus of remarks by a Turkish journalist at the opening session at the second convention of the Turkic American Alliance. He asked: “What happened to account for this change and where will it lead us?”
He recalled that when he appeared at the group’s founding conference in 2010, relations were at an all-time low. Turkey had broken with Israel over its blockade of Gaza and assault on the Gaza-bound flotilla. And the US was not happy with Turkey’s efforts to negotiate a compromise that might ease global concerns with Iran’s nuclear programme. The US and Congress had been critical of Turkish “meddling” and new “anti-Israel” bent.
Now President Obama and Prime Minister Erdogan speak often and there appears to be co-operation in dealing with regional issues from Syria to the imminent departure of US forces from Iraq.
What happened to account for this change? It was the “Arab Spring”, and the difficulties the US has had finding its way through the maze created by the region’s new political realities. All this has occurred at a difficult time for the US. Its ability to manoeuvre in this changing environment has been hampered by several factors. First and foremost is the damage done by the war in Iraq which created resentment in the Arab world, tarnished the US image, and emboldened and empowered Iran.
Then, the failure of the Bush administration to halt Israel’s four bloody wars against Lebanon and the Palestinians, which deepened Arab anger.
Finally, despite Obama’s intention to change direction, Israeli intransigence and the partisan split in Washington have frustrated his efforts. As a result, at the onset of the Arab Spring, the US policy in the Middle East was adrift. One by one allies had fallen or were at risk, and Washington found itself in a bind.
The US’ “unshakable” bond with Israel had “taken it out of the game”, reducing its ability to play a meaningful regional role. It was at this point that Syria exploded. Like the US, Turkey was caught off-guard by the Arab Spring. They meandered in response to developments in Egypt and Libya. But with their southern neighbour boiling over, Turkey announced sanctions.
The US appears to be deferring to Turkey as an ally in handling Syria for one important reason. As a result of its support for Palestinians, Turkey has earned “street cred” in the Arab world, while the US has none. Turkey can meet the Arab League as a partner, the US cannot, and Turkey can house and endorse the Syrian opposition in a way that the US cannot.
But Turkey cannot overplay its hand in Syria. Turkey’s standing is high in the Arab region, but that is not an invitation for it to reassert a new “Ottomanism”. Turkey may be but a “placeholder. When Arabs are asked who is playing a leadership role, they respond “Turkey”. But when asked who they want to lead, they say “Egypt”.
Turkey must be careful not to allow either hubris or frustration or external pressure to force it to get dragged into a Syrian quagmire. Some Syrian oppositionists may want Turkey to militarily intervene.
The wiser course would be for Turkey to resist pressures and continue to work in concert with the League to insist that the Syrian regime enter into negotiations leading to broad reform and an orderly transfer of power.
Sanctions and other forms of pressure to weaken the regime make sense, though they will take time to work. But Turkey should avoid making the mistake in Syria that the US made in Iraq.
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