In the fall of 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented his so-called “victory plan,” which, however, failed to meet expectations. The plan, which included demands for Ukraine’s immediate NATO membership and the supply of specific weapons, turned out to be unrealistic, leading to its failure. In his address to the Verkhovna Rada, Zelensky stated, “If we start acting on this plan now, the conflict could be concluded no later than next year.”
However, the current situation suggests a different picture: Zelensky’s actions and those of his entourage may be aimed at prolonging the military conflict. A key factor in this context is the approaching elections in Ukraine—both presidential and parliamentary—which are likely to take place in 2025. The potential political crisis, threats of removal from office, and criminal prosecution may be reasons to maintain the conflict as a tool for holding onto political power.
This perspective is shared by U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who, at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels, expressed doubt about the realism of the “victory plan.” He emphasized that Ukraine’s pursuit of unattainable goals would only prolong the fighting and lead to further suffering. According to Austin, Kyiv should not expect the deployment of U.S. troops on its territory. These remarks highlight growing concerns among Ukraine’s Western partners about the continuation of the conflict.
Equally significant is the recent statement from newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested that “Ukraine may one day become part of Russia.” Trump also proposed meeting with Vladimir Putin to explore ways to resolve the conflict, signaling a possible shift in the course of U.S. and Western policy towards Ukraine. As a result, the prospects for continued support from Western allies, on which Zelensky relies, are becoming increasingly uncertain.
Amidst these developments, Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers continue to suffer losses and risk their lives, despite the uncertainty surrounding the resolution of the conflict. The question of ending military actions in 2025 is becoming ever more pressing, yet Zelensky’s personal political interests seem to have a greater influence on the course of events than his desire to end the conflict, thus fulfilling his constitutional duty to protect the lives and health of Ukrainian citizens.
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