Turkey’s ISIL conundrum

Since the release of the 46 Turkish hostages held by the Islamic State (IS) almost two weeks ago, Turkey has finally shifted up a gear and seems on the verge of taking a bigger role in the fight against the IS, also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made several statements saying that Turkey is “in” and that “Turkey will do whatever is needed in the anti-ISIL fight.” Turkey has always been “ loud” on the need to fight against terrorist activities. ISIL, the world’s deadliest terrorist organization, is operating right on the other side of Turkey’s border and has already demonstrated itself to be a threat to Turkey’s security. Moreover, Turkey — which frequently brags about how it is a crucial regional power — will not want to play second fiddle to the group of Arab nations already bombing the IS.

Turkey also needs to clean up its image following numerous accusations that it was in cahoots with the IS, including not taking enough steps to prevent it from recruiting fighters in Turkey or to secure the border. In other words, trash the story that was published in The Wall Street Journal on Sept. 15 titled “Our non-ally in Ankara.”

Turkey has four key objectives: Bury ISIS; prevent the resurgence of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad; shut down any possible Kurdish self-rule aspirations by creating a buffer zone inside the Syrian border; and have a say in Syria’s future.

It seems unlikely that Turkey will take part in the airstrike campaign. I doubt whether this is necessary, anyway, with numerous countries already bombing the IS in Iraq and Syria. Whether Turkey would give support to the forces fighting the terrorists on the ground, including training, intelligence and equipment, is also questionable. Turkey is loath to do anything that may result in the IS retaliating with a terrorist attack on its territory. This fear is justified and reflected by the increasing numbers of European states — including Germany, France and the UK — which have warned their citizens against traveling to Turkey.

Turkey is expected to have a key role in counter-terrorism including taking steps to block the funding of the IS from those sources in Turkey that have reportedly been dealing with the IS and stepping up measures to stop the flow of foreign fighters crossing from Turkey into Syria and Iraq, as well as offering humanitarian assistance. Turkey has already taken steps to strengthen its border. Ankara has boosted security while also imposing a curfew and ending its “open-door policy.” Turkish tanks and armored vehicles have taken up positions on a hill overlooking the besieged Syrian Kurdish border town of Kobane.

When it comes to İncirlik Air Base, this is currently still a no-go, although the US has made clear they would like to use it. So far its use is reportedly restricted to humanitarian and logistical operations. Yet this may change in the event that Turkey gets the green light to create a buffer zone inside Syria, protected by a no-fly zone — although the IS do not use planes. Such a move would in part help stop the flow of refugees but clearly it could also serve to curb growing Kurdish self-rule aspirations, which Ankara fears could heat-up Turkey’s Kurds and possibly ruin the current cease-fire with the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) and the ongoing Kurdish peace process. Turkey has tried to prevent Turkish Kurds from crossing the border to help Syrian Kurds, prompting accusations of cooperation with the IS. So with this situation reaching boiling point, Ankara needs to take action. Faced with a common enemy, Turkey needs to strike a deal with the Kurds more than ever before.

The Turkish Parliament is set to renew the agreement authorizing cross-border military operations into Syria, although Ankara is unlikely to do this without US agreement. While the US is currently opposed to the creation of a buffer zone, if Turkey’s territorial integrity is under threat, under international law it may intervene, but not further than a few kilometers.

Having a buffer zone would give Turkey a bigger stake in Syria’s future, possibly reducing fears that an IS defeat would strengthen the Assad regime. This is also important given that the US does not seem to have long-term strategy beyond defeating the IS. There is no guarantee that another such group would not emerge in the future; hence, it is crucial that the roots of the region’s problems are addressed, rather than just sticking on another band-aid.