Roula Khalaf | Sep 23 11:46
Syrians pleas for western military help to stop the Assad regime have gone unanswered for the past three years, no matter how brutal the governmentb’s methods of repression.
More than 200,000 deaths later, the US has entered the Syrian fray with the first air strikes as it also prepares to begin training and equipping a rebel force in Syria. The goal, in this case, is not to take on the regime, but to confront a jihadi menace that has spread spectacularly to Iraq, and has begun to pose a broader threat to the region.
But if fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, the group known as Isis, might just prevent Iraq from breaking up, the chances of this campaign bringing peace to Syria are more remote than ever.
To be sure, the US could not ignore Syria while it pursued Isis in Iraq. The Sunni extremist jihadis chased out of one country would simply regroup across the border and plot their comeback. But as Anthony Cordesman of the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies noted lat week, while a combination of air power and Iraqi ground forces operations has an uncertain possibility in Iraq, Syria will remain b an enduring mess.b
That the US persuaded a group of Arab countries to take part in the strikes against Syria is an achievement b it provides local cover to a controversial move.
At least at this stage, the US has also neutralised Syrian regime protestations about the legality of its action, with the government claiming that it had been informed of the planned bombing. Tactically, the US has handled the first series of air strikes well.
But there are several factors, both military and political, that underline the scepticism over the outcome in Syria.
1. In Iraq, air strikes are designed to pave the way for local forces to retake territory occupied by Isis since its August sweep through the north. Compare that with Syria, where US policy is to promote a transition away from the Assad regime. The governmentbs violence helped hasten the radicalisation of the rebels and the US would lose its Arab partners the moment government forces appear to benefit from the air strikes. Informing the government of air strikes is one thing; co-operating with it is another, and one that the US has ruled out.
2. The US still has to create a partner on the ground. It will take at least a year to train the 5,000-strong US-backed force that will be charged with fighting Isis. Western diplomats say a well-funded and equipped group will become a magnet for other rebels to join. Perhaps. But it is also possible that an apparent American creation at this stage in the war will be seen by other rebel groups as an enemy rather than a friend.
3. Pitting the US-trained rebels against Isis introduces another force into a chaotic rebel movement whose rivalries and divisions have undermined its own cause. Already a multi-pronged war, with rebels fighting each other as well as the regime, the American-trained rebel force could open up new fronts of confrontation.
In its air strikes, moreover, the US has targeted other al-Qaeda linked cells that are seen by its Arab allies, and by a majority of rebel groups, as far less threatening than Isis. The strikes against the Nusrah Front that activists reported on Tuesday could drive other radical groups on the Syrian battlefield to co-operate with Isis.
“Who stands to benefit the most from the US strikes is still unclear,b says Emile Hokayem, Syria expert at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. b The rebels fighting Isis may find short term relief but face the possibility of a domestic backlash if Isis propaganda is successful.b
4. The US and Iran are on the same side in Iraq, even if they are acting without deliberate co-ordination. In Syria, both want to destroy Isis but Iran is trying to prop up the regime while the US is hoping to undermine it. The dilemma for the US is that there is no guarantee the struggle against Isis will not create a vacuum that the regime and its Iranian-backed allies will be better positioned to fill than the rebels.
5. The military campaign is only one element in the broader fight against Isis. The politics are hugely important. But while in Iraq US air strikes have been accompanied by a change of government and an attempt to regain the trust of the Sunni community, in Syria there is no talk of a political transition and no political levers to force the regime into any concessions. Talks sponsored by the US and Russia have collapsed with no prospect of revival.