STRATFOR
September 23, 2014 | 2129 GMT
Analysis
U.S. airstrikes on Islamic State and al Qaeda positions in the Syrian city of Raqqa took place Sept. 22, for once not with the help and backing of traditional allies such as France or the United Kingdom, but rather with a surprising show of force from the region’s Sunni Arab monarchies. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Jordan took part in the airstrikes, with Qatar providing air support, even though it has long been at odds with members of this coalition. This push by Arab and U.S. forces risks upsetting the status quo that has defined the Syrian civil war for the past 12-16 months and could change the internal balance of power that developed from late 2012.
Iran’s sphere of influence in the Arab world expanded with the 2003 fall of Saddam Hussein’s Baathist regime and again with the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq in December 2011. Iran has backed Shiite and related sectarian forces from Mesopotamia to Syria and Lebanon, including Iraq’s Shiite majority government, Hezbollah and the ruling Syrian Alawite regime. This has allowed Tehran to maintain a hand in security matters along its western flank, to the consternation of Sunni Arab states such as Saudi Arabia. The prospect of a U.S.-Iranian rapprochement, stirred by the election of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, has further unnerved Riyadh and its regional allies, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
As a result, the past year saw increasing anger and activity from the region’s Sunni Arab groups. Most of these groups are backed by the coalition of monarchies that participated in yesterday’s joint airstrikes with the United States. This uptick in activity culminated in a flood of Islamic State militants out of Syria and into Iraq. Many of these forces — among them jihadists and those whose long-term targets include Saudi Arabia as well as Iran — pose serious threats to regional stability even as they focus on Iranian and Iranian-backed targets. Whether this situation is part of a long-term plan by regional Sunni actors or it is merely a serendipitous occasion for diplomacy and aggressive military action, this outpouring of jihadist activity represented by the Islamic State creates opportunities for Riyadh and the region’s Sunni Arab powerhouses.
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This coalition is the largest grouping of Arab military forces against a common target since the 1991 Gulf War. From the standpoint of the United States, the joint airstrikes provide regional backing and legitimacy to U.S. actions in Iraq. More important, they provide legitimacy for its actions in Syria, where Washington lacks the overt support of Bashar al Assad’s Iran-backed government in Damascus.
Beyond the current airstrikes, however, the overall role that Riyadh (along with other Arab monarchies) has in regional conflicts comes increasingly into question. At the moment activity is confined to Syria, but this alignment raises the issue of whether Gulf Arab airstrikes will extend to Islamic State targets in Iraq — a state strongly within the Iranian sphere of influence. Libya, too, has an ongoing conflict, one in which the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are rumored to be working with Egypt to suppress the rogue militias and Islamist forces.
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In recent years, the United States has been attempting to establish a new strategy, one that reduces direct U.S. military involvement, encouraging a greater role for regional players in containing conflicts such as Syria, Iraq and Libya. Clearly, regional actors are still unwilling or unable to shoulder the burden of managing such volatile conflicts on their own. The United States, perhaps, is also unwilling to see the expansion of proxy battles — such as the competition between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey in Syria — into larger regional warfare.
The coming days and weeks will reveal just how much of a role Saudi Arabia and its allies are willing to take in the fight against Islamic State and, more broadly, in the project of enforcing regional stability. This could involve providing token political and military support, with the United States carrying the bulk of the burden. Conversely, these airstrikes could develop into a small but growing assertiveness among the region’s Arab monarchies.
Regardless of further developments Iran is already on the defensive. With Washington and Tehran unable to coordinate openly against Islamic State in either Syria or Iraq, Saudi Arabia and its allies have moved to fill the gap. The situation, however, remains changeable. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is set to meet with British Prime Minister David Cameron on Sept. 24 on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly to discuss ways of combatting the Islamic State — the first such bilateral meeting between British and Iranian heads of state in 35 years. As the international community’s tactics to suppress Islamic State evolve, so will the region’s geopolitical realities, with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran working to preserve their interests in the shadow of another round of U.S. military action in the Middle East.