UPCOMING TURKISH ELECTIONS

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Upcoming Election

Presidential Elections (August 2014)

1- Turkish presidential elections will take place on August 10 (First Round) and August 24 (Second Round). The winner needs to receive over 50 percent of votes to get elected. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round,  two candidates receiving most votes will compete in the second round.

2-According to the Turkish constitution, presidential candidates need to be 40 years of age or older, college graduate, qualified to be a member of parliament (but not necessarily a current member). In addition, for an individual to run in the contest, at least 20 members of parliament need to petition on his or her behalf. Given the party structure and discipline in Turkey, it is expected that every major party will nominate a presidential candidate; thus, no more than 4 nominees (even less in the case of a joint candidate) will compete in the elections.

3- It is no secret that Prime Minister Erdogan is interested in becoming the 12th President of Turkey. If he decides to run and gets elected, then the ruling AKP, which still holds the majority in the parliament, will need to select his replacement as the chairman of the party and prime minister. If Mr. Erdogan runs for presidency and loses, he will still keep his current position. There is no constitutional need for Mr. Erdogan to resign his office to run for presidency.

Poll Results

If elections held today (among potential presidential candidates)

DATE  

 

May 5

May 5

May 2

April 29

April 25

Feb 3

Feb 2

POLL   

 

ORC

OPTIMAR

TUSIVAR

METROPOLL

ORC

CIHAN

GEZICI

GUL 

 

23

24

23

47

29

ERDOGAN 

 

52

24

35

26

51

17

20

BASBUG 

 

11

16

16

AKSENER 

 

9

4

BAYKAL 

 

3

KILICDAR. 

 

3

7

28

BAHCELI 

 

3

5

12

Parties and nominees (no party has yet declared a nominee) 

Who should be the AKP nominee? (among AKP supporters)
DATE  
 
May 5
 
May 2
 
April 29
 
Feb 2
 
POLL 
 
OPTIMAR
 
TUSIVAR
 
MAK
 
GEZICI
 
GUL
 
39
 
33
 
12
 
29
 
ERDOGAN
 
49
 
58
 
70
 
20
 
DAVUTOGLU
 
-
 
-
 
6
 
28
 
ARINC
 
-
 
3
 
4
 
12
 
Who should be the CHP nominee? (among CHP supporters)
DATE  
 
May 5
 
May 2
 
April 29
 
April 25
 
POLL  
 
OPTIMAR
 
TUSIVAR
 
MAK
 
ORC
 
KILICDAROGLU
 
13
 
5
 
47
 
13
 
BAYKAL
 
6
 
8
 
17
 
-
 
BUYUKERSEN
 
-
 
4
 
7
 
-
 
BASBUG
 
28
 
46
 
5
 
7
 
Who should be the MHP nominee? (among MHP supporters)
DATE  
 
May 5
 
May 2
 
April 29
 
April 25
 
POLL  
 
OPTIMAR
 
TUSIVAR
 
MAK
 
ORC
 
BAHCELI
 
25
 
9
 
20
 
31
 
AKSENER
 
17
 
36
 
34
 
32
 
HALACOGLU
 
-
 
-
 
14
 
-
 
VURAL
 
-
 
-
 
10
 
-
 
 

Who should succeed Prime Minister Erdogan if he runs and gets elected as president? 

DATE
 
May 5
 
May 2
 
April 29
 
POLL  
 
OPTIMAR
 
TUSIVAR
 
MAK
 
DAVUTOGLU
 
5
 
12
 
19
 
GUL
 
15
 
34
 
17
 
ARINC
 
3
 
19
 
16
 
KURTULMUS
 
3
 
15
 
15
 
YILDIRIM
 
-
 
-
 
13
 


Past Election Results

2009 Local Elections

AKP 
38.4
 
CHP  
23.0
 
MHP  
15.9
 
DTP 
5.7
 
OTHER
17.0
 

2011 Parliamentary Elections

AKP
49.8
 
CHP 
25.9
 
MHP 
13.1
 
BDP/IND 
6.5
 
OTHER
14.7
 

2014 Local Elections

AKP
45.2
 
CHP 
28.8
 
MHP 
15.2
 
BDP/HDP 
5.8
 
OTHER
5.0
 
 

Maps

 By Talha Oz, George Mason University

Click image for larger view

Poll Results

2014 Local Elections (March 30)

DATE 

March 27

March 18

March 17

March 12

March 8

March 5

March 5

Feb 14
 
Feb 12
 
Feb 11
 
Feb 7
 
Feb 6
 
Feb 4
 
Feb 4
 
Feb 3
 
Feb 2
 
Feb 1
 
Jan 31
 
Jan 28
 
Jan 27
 
Jan 16
 
Jan 10
 
Jan 8
 
POLL 
 
GEZICI

ANDY-AR

Anonymous

ORC

ANAR

KONDA

Metropoll

GEZICI
 
OPTIMAR
 
DI-EN
 
DENGE
 
ORC
 
AG
 
ANDY-AR
 
CIHAN
 
GEZICI
 
KONSENSUS
 
KONDA
 
GENAR
 
METROPOLL
 
CUMHURIYET
 
DENGE
 
SONAR
 
AKP
 
46.2

40.7

29.7

45.7

46.9

49.4

41.7

37.6
 
44.8
 
36.8
 
48.5
 
45.0
 
47.0
 
43.5
 
36.4
 
39.9
 
41.7
 
47.7
 
48.8
 
43.2
 
35.5
 
47.5
 
42.3
 
CHP
 
27.2

31.2

33.2

28.3

30.1

21.8

30.9

31.3
 
29.3
 
26.4
 
29.7
 
29.3
 
28.0
 
29.3
 
28.8
 
31.3
 
29.5
 
28.2
 
28.0
 
28.1
 
26.7
 
28.9
 
29.8
 
MHP
 
15.5

17.2

21.3

16.0

14.3

15.8

16.7

20.6
 
14.2
 
18.3
 
14.1
 
15.1
 
14.0
 
13.6
 
20.5
 
19.2
 
15.4
 
14.4
 
13.0
 
15.0
 
15.1
 
12.7
 
18.7
 
BDP
 
7.1

6.8

7.6

6.0

5.8

8.3

8.3

7.6
 
5.6
 
6.4
 
5.5
 
6.2
 
9.0
 
6.5
 
7.4
 
7.8
 
6.5
 
5.9
 
6.5
 
9.7
 
7.6
 
7.1
 
5.6
 
OTHER
 
4.0

4.0

8.2

4.0

2.9

4.7

2.4

2.7
 
4.9
 
10.2
 
1.9
 
4.4
 
2.0
 
5.1
 
6.9
 
1.8
 
6.9
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
4.0
 
15.1
 
3.6
 
3.6
 

Major Cities

Istanbul

DATE  
 
March 18

March 18

March 18

March 17

March 12

Feb 13
 
Feb 11
 
Feb 10
 
Jan 24
 
Jan 17
 
Jan 9
 
Jan 3
 
POLL 
 
ANDY-AR

KONSENSUS

SONAR

Anonymous

GEZICI

DENGE
 
DI-EN
 
MAK
 
SONAR
 
GEZICI
 
KONDA
 
ORC
 
LEADING PARTY
 
AKP

AKP

AKP

CHP

AKP

AKP
 
AKP
 
AKP
 
CHP
 
AKP
 
AKP
 
AKP
 
SPREAD
 
2.2

3.6

4.7

1.9

6.3

14.0
 
7.4
 
7.0
 
0.3
 
8.8
 
17.7
 
9.1
 

Ankara

DATE 
 
March 19

March 18

March 18

March 18

March 17

March 11

Feb 11
 
Feb 10
 
Jan 17
 
Jan 3
 
POLL 
 
OPTIMAR

ANDY-AR

KONSENSUS

SONAR

Anonymous

GEZICI

DI-EN
 
MAK
 
GEZICI
 
ORC
 
LEADING PARTY
 
CHP

CHP

CHP

AKP

CHP

AKP

AKP
 
AKP
 
AKP
 
AKP
 
SPREAD
 
0.3

0.4

1.8

6.3

7.6

5.1

5.8
 
9.0
 
7.2
 
13.4
 

Izmir

DATE  
 
March 18

March 18

March 18

Feb 11
 
Jan 17
 
Jan 8
 
POLL  
 
ANDY-AR

KONSENSUS

SONAR

DI-EN
 
GEZICI
 
ORC
 
LEADING PARTY
 
CHP

CHP

CHP

CHP
 
CHP
 
CHP
 
SPREAD
 
19.8

15.6

19.7

6.1
 
6.9
 
5.2
 

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