The Independent: How Turkey blew its chance to lead this troubled region

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The country could have enhanced its influence and saved a lot of lives. It did the exact opposite

Whatever happened to the idea that Turkey was the coming power in the Middle East, with its surging economy and stable democracy under a mildly Islamic government which might be the model for Arab states as they ended decades of police state rule in 2011? Turkey seemed perfectly positioned to lead the way, with no serious enemies in the region and with good relations with the US and the EU. Oversimplified headlines comparing modern Turkey with the Ottoman empire in the days before it became a great power in the 16th century did not seem wholly exaggerated.

Two years later, none of these good things has come to pass for Turkey, and it is very short of friends in the Middle East. It has managed simultaneously to make enemies of the four powers to its south and east: Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon – as well as the monarchies of the Gulf with the exception of Qatar. Turkish pilots are kidnapped in Beirut and Turkish truck drivers arrested in Egypt. Turkish support for the former president of Egypt Mohammed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood has infuriated the military regime, which has even intervened to stop the showing of Turkish soap operas on Egyptian television.

Most serious of all, Turkey’s entanglement in support of what may well be the losing side in the Syrian crisis is bringing nothing but disaster. It did not have to be like this: at the start of the Syrian crisis Ankara was well placed to play a moderating role in the crisis, since it was on good terms with President Bashar al-Assad but able to put pressure on the insurgents who depend on keeping open the 560-mile Turkish-Syrian frontier. But the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, overplayed his hand, assumed that Assad would go down as quickly as Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and gave full support for the armed groups Many other governments made the same mistake, but the consequences of the failure of the armed groups to win a decisive victory is most serious for Turkey.

via Syrian TV – The Independent: How Turkey blew its chance to lead this troubled region.


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