(Some reflections on the political situation in the
Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus)
Prof. Dr. Gul Celkan
It has been more than a month since the last elections in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, and no political party was able to obtain enough seats in the Republic Assembly to form the government. The Constitution mandates that a government has to be formed within fifteen days following the official announcement of election results and the MP’s taking their oath in the Assembly.
In a country where the population is around 330.000 and where there are only 173.000 registered voters, five political parties plus 7 independent candidates ran to obtain seats in the Assembly. The breakdown of the results is as follows: CTP-BG 38.38%, UBP 27.33%, DP-UG 23.16%, BKP 4.15% and TDP 5.41%. The independent candidates received almost no votes at all.
These percentiles clearly indicated that a coalition government was inevitable. Who will be delegated the responsibility of establishing the government? The general understanding is that the leader of the political party who obtains the majority of seats in the Assembly will be assigned this duty by the President of the TRNC. And as such, the leader of CTP-BG was officially delegated the responsibility of forming the new cabinet.
As is the case in all democratically run countries, the newly elected members of the Assembly have to take the oath prior to performing any duty whatsoever as an elected member of the Assembly. Before contemplating on the election results and the new government, it is worthwhile remembering how all the members of the assembly are sworn in. “ I do solemnly swear that I will preserve and protect the existence and independence of the State; the sovereignty, eternal existence and indivisible unity of the people and the nation state, …adhere to the principles and reforms of Ataturk, …that I will comply with provisions of the Constitution.”
Therefore regardless of what political party the members come from, they have to be sworn in, Thus as citizens, it is our natural expectancy that they will be faithful to their oath and work for the welfare of the sovereign Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. However, the current political situation in the country is very ironic. On one side, there is the Republican People’s Party (CTP) with a completely different vision compared to the Democrat Party (DP). Since CTP got the majority of the votes in the elections, it is the expectancy of both the Assembly and the people that this party rules the government with a partner, hence a coalition government. Considering the approach the CTP has toward the so-called Cyprus Problem, it is to the best interest of the country that they cannot govern the country on their own. They were the forerunners of the Annan Plan and without thinking of any of the consequences, beguiled a lot of the people by convincing them to vote “yes” in the Referendum, which was an utter mistake because having said “yes” to the Plan, the Turkish side readily admitted to giving up their sovereignty rights, their land and most importantly their Republic. Had it not been for an overwhelming “No” from the Greek Cypriot side, today there would have been no TRNC. Due to the majority of the “yes” votes from the Turkish side, when the two sides sit at the table with the UN Secretary General presiding over the meeting, there is always an excuse on the table that both the UN and the Greeks put forth: “you have already consented to giving up your land and your sovereignty by approving the plan, so you have no right to come up with new titles to reach a compromise on.” Had it not been for the “intransigent” attitude of the late President of the TRNC Rauf Raif Denktas, the country would have been wiped off of the surface of the earth, and the inhabitants would have either lost their true identity for the sake of becoming European Union citizens, or migrated to their Motherland Turkey. The choice would have, most definitely, depended on their outlook and beliefs.
The second partner of the coalition government is DP, lead by Serdar Denktas, who is the son of the late President. As expected, the views this party holds are in line with those of the founding and first President of the TRNC RRDenktas. For the DP, ties with motherland Turkey should never be severed but relations should be kept at a level so as to enable the Turkish Cypriots to stand on their own two feet but also get the support they need from Turkey. Having no major economy but tourism and institutions of higher education as the driving force that brings cash flow into the country, and due to the embargoes imposed on the TRNC, hardly any manufactured goods can be exported unless they are via Turkey.
Based on these facts, there are now two opposite views represented in the government. One of the key ministries which is Foreign Affairs is unfortunately assigned to an MP from CTP. Since the Prime Minister is also from CTP, their representation of the country on all international platforms would be very different from how it was formerly represented: very firmly and with no concessions at all. Though the deputy Prime Minister is the leader of the DP, either the PM or the Minister of Foreign Affairs would participate in all the international talks regarding the future of the island giving the entire international community a completely different perspective on the so-called Cyprus Issue.
Just as the two peoples living on the Northern and Southern parts of the island divided by the Greenline are at loggerheads on most issues due to the stubborn and egotistic attitude of the Greek Cypriots, so will be the two partners of this new coalition government. Will they ever find common grounds? Where as one is pro-Turkey, the other is pro-Greek. Putting into oblivion all the tragic events of the past and start living together with the Greek Cypriots again in a Federal Cyprus Republic is the ultimate goal of the CTP, while the DP, in compliance with the oath they have taken, will work for the indivisible unity of the country.
Now, is it not right to say “it takes two to tango?” Tango requires harmony. Will these two political parties that have completely opposing views form a harmonious partnership? On a personal note, I do not see a long-term partnership.