Will Turkey Squander Its Opportunity to Lead?

Demonstrators attacked billboards advertising Turkey’s most popular soap opera “Magnificent Century” in Istanbul in 2011.

Instead of Turkey leading the post-Arab Spring Middle East, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is setting a new standard of intolerance. Fourteen months after he touted Turkey as an example for the region, Mr. Erdogan is polarizing politics in his country and squelching dissent.

Turkey is, at last, in a unique and enviable position on the world stage: sitting astride Europe, Asia and the Middle East, culturally as well as politically, and relatively strong economically. As post-Mubarak Egypt grapples with old demons in new forms, Syria approaches a bloody denouement, and Saudi Arabia and Iran offer little in the way of viable paths to progress, this could be Turkey’s moment.

Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters A picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was riddled with bullets on a wall of an infantry college near the city of Aleppo in December.

But experts and human rights groups say leaders in the region need to tolerate more dissent, not less. And Turkey appears to be heading in the wrong direction.

More than 10,000 members of Turkey’s Kurdish minority —who account for 18 percent of the country’s population — languish in the country’s jails on various terrorism charges. And Turkey now has more journalists in jail — 49 — than any other nation, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. That is more than Iran, which has jailed 45, or China, which has imprisoned 32.

On Dec.7^th, Mr. Erdogan threatened the makers of Turkey’s most popular soap opera — “Magnificent Century” —  for the second time in a month. He complained that the series, which exaggerates the palace intrigue, romance, and sex life of Suleiman the Magnificent, a revered 16^th century Ottoman leader, was historically inaccurate and called for the series creators to be “taught a lesson.”

Khaled Elfiqi/European Pressphoto Agency A protester held a sign reading “no to constitution” during a rally against Egypt’s contentious new fundamental law before voters backed the document in a referendum in December.

More alarmingly, the daily Hurriyet reported that the ruling party was laying the groundwork for a law that “aims to forbid humiliation of historical figures or perversion of real facts.” As Dan Bilefsky reported here, the law would apply to works of fiction as well.

Culture wars, of course, are fought in every country. And the portrayal of revered historical figures, from Abraham Lincoln to Suleiman the Magnificent, can spark angry debate. But what is so troubling about Mr. Erdogan’s behavior is the heedless example it sets at a vital time in the region — and the world.

To be fair, Turkey endured decades of Western-backed military rule and is a relatively new democracy. A Kurdish insurgency has claimed 40,000 lives since 1984. And other nations making the transition to democracy — or facing insurgencies — have struggled with dissent, with leaders seeing it as disloyal rather than legitimate.

Tom Carothers, an expert in transitions to democracy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said some countries, such as Brazil, Ghana and Mongolia, have welcomed a shift to bracing debate. But others, particularly countries with no history of strong opposition parties, struggle to accept it. In the end, according to Mr. Carothers, it often comes down to the disposition of individual leaders.

“Putin can’t stand dissent,” he said, referring to the Russian leader. “Yeltsin could.”

While Mr. Erdogan’s actions rankle Turks, the stakes are far higher in Egypt, where Mr. Erdogan has some sway and vital precedents are being set. So far, in terms of the news media, President Mohamed Morsi is proving more tolerant of dissent in some ways than his Turkish counterpart.

While Mr. Morsi’s rushed Constitution has created deep division, he has generally allowed open political debate and a basic level of press freedom in Egypt. Since the dispute over the country’s Constitution began, Mr. Morsi’s opponents have freely and fiercely criticized him in the Egyptian media.

On the other hand, as Nathan Brown, a professor at George Washington University and an Egypt expert, says, Mr. Morsi’s supporters have savagely beaten his opponents in the streets.

“In Egypt, the rules of political discourse and contestation are unclear and contested,” Mr. Brown said in an e-mail exchange. “Where shrill speech ends and seditious speech begins is being worked out in practice — and in very harsh practice.”

Experts on Turkey say that Mr. Erdogan’s tone and tactics are lamentable because they are unnecessary. He remains genuinely popular in the country and is likely to be elected president when his second — and he says final — term as prime minister ends in 2015. Instead of keeping a promise to try to resolve the country’s Kurdish insurgency, he is sowing division over social issues.

In June, he sparked a furor when he called abortion “murder,” reigniting a debate that has largely quieted since abortion was legalized in Turkey in 1983. Last month, he called for the re-imposition of the death penalty, which his own government banned in 2004. The comment sparked tension with jailed Kurds, in particular, who could potentially face the death penalty.

All the while, the Obama administration continues to support Mr. Erdogan, according to Turkish analysts.

While human rights and press freedom groups question whether Mr. Erdogan’s Turkey is, in fact, a model for the region, the United States remains silent.

“I was in Washington last week and no one gives a damn about whether or not the quality of Turkish democracy has declined,” Soli Ozel, a professor of international affairs at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, said in a telephone interview. “So long as it does not hurt essential American interests — and I don’t think it will — nobody is going to talk about it.”