‘French business interested in Azerbaijan and Turkey more than in Armenia’

News.Az interviews Ruslan Kostyuk, doctor of historical science, professor of the International Relations Faculty of the St.Petersburg State University.

Can you predict the decision of the Constitutional court regarding the law criminalizing the so-called ‘Armenian genocide’ recently passed in lower and upper chamber of the French parliament?

It is difficult to predict the decision of the Constitutional Court. The issue of this bill causes concern among socio-political forces in France less than political events. France is looking forward presidential elections soon, and, frankly, the issue of the Armenian “genocide” (hence the quotes below are ours – Ed.) Is not even among top seven issues, which are being actively discussed.

We know that Nicolas Sarkozy himself has initiated the adoption of the aforementioned bill. But in every French party, there are certain forces that favor the adoption of this law, and the forces that believe that the law should not have been adopted and disputes must be left to historians. Therefore, it is very difficult to predict the decision of the Constitutional Court. If the judgment is not in favor of the law, it will still be likely moral and political defeat of the current president of France. After all, everyone knows the anti-Turkish stance of Sarkozy primarily in Ankara’s membership in EU.

Is this law important for Sarkozy? It is primarily the intention to drag Armenian party to their side in anticipation of presidential elections or the reluctance to see Turkey inside the EU?

On the eve of the previous presidential election, he repeatedly said that Turkey’s accession to the EU is hardly possible. He said that for its geographical location Turkey is supposedly not a political Europe. So, by this bill Sarkozy complicates opportunities and prospects of the Turkish Republic in the EU. With regard to the fact that he may have done it before the presidential election, in order to win the Armenian Diaspora on its side, it is worth noting that the French of Armenian origin are really going to support Sarkozy, according to all sorts of polls. However, the French sociologists say that in this case, Sarkozy can count on the votes of 300,000-400,000 people. This is much less than the votes of all the Muslim diasporas in France put together. Sarkozy should better arrange the hunt to win them on his side before the election.

Today we see that the French-Turkish relations are going through not the best of their times. Ankara has already reacted and further plans to take adequate measures on the ‘French’ law. How do you think Azerbaijan should act, as the Turkish partner?

I would not make hasty conclusions, especially as this law does not apply directly to Azerbaijan. It is clear that there are special Turkish-Azerbaijani relations, it is clear that there is the Karabakh conflict, and the condition of the Azerbaijani-Armenian relations. However, I repeat, this law does not apply directly to Baku

I have to note that the French business is interested in Azerbaijan and Turkey to a much greater extent than in Armenia. We know perfectly well that the French car manufacturers control up to 25% of the Turkish car market. About a thousand of French companies have direct investments in Turkey. The French patronage took quite a strained position and its representatives tried to dissuade Sarkozy from doing so.

With regard to the issue of the Minsk Group and France, it is obvious that Paris has not been too neutral in Karabakh issue. There were certain actions in favor of Armenia. At the same time, France is one of the leading players in the EU. And if Baku puts the question of removing France from among the Minsk group co-chairs, won’t it harm relations between Azerbaijan and the EU?

Finally, France will soon have presidential elections and Sarkozy may probably be removed from power. And after this the foreign policy of France will likely be corrected by the new government.

Is the same law likely to be adopted in Russia too?

In my opinion, Russia and Turkey have far more complex and fast-evolving relationship, than it was before. In many ways, Turkey comes in the first place as an economic partner of Russia. For example, the sale of certain goods and tourism. Given the weight, which Turkey has, given the fact that the Russian-Turkish political, economic, scientific-technical relations have grown markedly in recent times, I do not think that at the moment the dominant forces of the State Duma will tolerate such a law.

Moreover, here is one more thing, albeit insignificant. It should be noted that representatives of the Yedinaya Rossiya party sit in the same group with representatives of the ruling Justice and Development Party of Turkey in PACE. This may not be the most obvious caveat, but still means something.

So I do not think that the adoption of this law is actual for Russia in the nearest perspective.

Hamid Hamidov

News.Az

via News.Az – ‘French business interested in Azerbaijan and Turkey more than in Armenia’.