Turkey seeks alliance with Egypt as Middle East restructuring begins

by Gaius Publius

An important under-the-radar process has started in the Middle East, which could result in a major restructuring of alliances and powers.

Earlier Myrddin reported on (and analyzed) the possibility of war between Turkey and Israel over Israel’s May 2010 assault on the Turkish-flagged humanitarian flotilla bound for Gaza.

There is no question that relations between Israel and Turkey have reached a new, almost rock bottom low. After that attack, which resulted in the deaths of nine Turkish citizens, Turkey has said that the Turkish navy would escort the next Gaza-bound rescue ships. That makes it put up or shut up for Israel, with war hanging in the balance.

Now, in a brilliant bit of diplomatic maneuvering, Turkey is working on an alliance with Egypt (my emphasis):

A newly assertive Turkey offered on Sunday a vision of a starkly realigned Middle East, where the country’s former allies in Syria and Israel fall into deeper isolation, and a burgeoning alliance with Egypt underpins a new order in a region roiled by revolt and revolution.

The portrait was described by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu of Turkey in an hourlong interview before he was to leave for the United Nations, where a contentious debate was expected this week over a Palestinian bid for recognition as a state. Viewed by many as the architect of a foreign policy that has made Turkey one of the most relevant players in the Muslim world, Mr. Davutoglu pointed to that issue and others to describe a region in the midst of a transformation. Turkey, he said, was “right at the center of everything.”

He declared that Israel was solely responsible for the near collapse in relations with Turkey, once an ally, and he accused Syria’s president of lying to him after Turkish officials offered the government there a “last chance” to salvage power by halting its brutal crackdown on dissent.

Strikingly, he predicted a partnership between Turkey and Egypt, two of the region’s militarily strongest and most populous and influential countries, which he said could create a new axis of power at a time when American influence in the Middle East seems to be diminishing.

This is seriously one to watch. Egypt and Turkey are as close as you get in the Middle East to Arab–Europe crossroads states, with cultures and economies that share in both worlds. (And the article is an excellent review of Turkey and its strengthening place in the Arab world; very impressive.)

Will Turkey follow through on a navy-escorted Gaza humanitarian flotilla? If so, will Israel attack? As Myrddin points out, if Israel backs down, the hard-right Netanhahu–Avigdor Lieberman government could fall.

And long-term, imagine a Middle East dominated by a pro-Palestine Egypt–Turkey axis instead of the Israel–Syria “warring states” status quo. Couple that with diminished U.S. influence, presence & credibility; add a dash of Palestinian de-facto statehood via the U.N. — and suddenly the world looks different from over there.

This certainly could stir the pot, and not in the bad way.

GP

via US Politics | 2012 Election – AMERICAblog News: Turkey seeks alliance with Egypt as Middle East restructuring begins.