As we approach the June 12 elections in Turkey and as we observe the tumultuous changes happening in the Middle East it is important to take a look at the importance of Turkey.
Surely in a short article like this not enough could be said about Turkey, its importance to the region, to NATO, to the European Union, for Western-Islamic relations, water security, energy security and so much more. But I will give an introduction to some of the main issues and hope that many of you will follow through and look more into Turkey.
Turkey is one of the most populous countries in the Middle East, right up there with Egypt. It also has a very powerful military and a quickly growing economy. Turkey is the largest investor in northern Iraq and these investments and the development from them have helped to stabilize this part of Iraq.
Turkey is also a major investor in Central Asia and its construction companies can be found at work in many parts of the world. Although it faces unemployment and underemployment problems, economic structural issues and more, it has come a long way since the darker days of its economy not so long ago. Turkey has bounced back rather well from the financial crisis mostly.
One of the bigger concerns now is that it may be overheating and too much investment may be happening – and possibly there may be a bubble or two there. There is some fragility in the Turkish economy, but overall it could be considered one of the success stories of the recent past of a country that is moving forward rather rapidly, but without the press and accolades of a China or Brazil. Nonetheless, it is an economy to watch and a place where some of the smartest investors are either already there or are keeping a keen out for opportunity there.
Turkey is pursuing a full spectrum foreign policy reaching out to as many countries as possible. It has its own national goals and security issues and many of these are reflected in its foreign policy. It has cautiously reached out to its problematic neighbor Iran, but at the same time keeps fairly good relations with the United States, the Gulf Cooperation Council and the rest of its NATO partners. Importantly, Turkey seems to be under no illusions about the nature of the Iranian leadership.
Its relations with Greece, although far from perfect, have improved greatly. Turkey has been a big part of NATO operations in Afghanistan and has contributed to many UN peacekeeping and other international military and security operations. It has walked a fine line on the situation in Libya and has tried its mightiest to understand its position regarding the Arab Spring. Its relations with Israel are not the best and the flotilla incident made things much worse.
Turkey seems to have distinctly turned to the East on many issues and sees itself as a leader within the Muslim world. It still has some historical baggage from the Ottoman Empire to deal with regard to the Arab states and others. Its relations with Russia are sometimes complex, but hardly as they were during the Cold War or during the Ottoman days.
Turkey seems to be coming to terms slowly with Armenia. Many of its top business people seem to want to move forward more quickly with better relations with that neighbor. However, there are some historical sensitivities that needs to be worked out between them and amongst the supporters and detractors of each.
Turkey seems to be struggling, but thankfully peacefully, with its identity. Every time I go there I am told it is both east and west, Asia and Europe. Indeed it is, but it also seems to be trying to come to grips with its Islamic identity and how this fits in with its constitution, which is predicated upon a secular state defended by the military, and with the social and cultural pressures placed upon it by local and regional events. The coming election could be an important point in that identity development, which will likely be ongoing for many years to come.
Turkey is a functioning democracy in a country that is predominantly Muslim. It is an example, like Malaysia, where democracy and Islam are compatible. Actually, the second largest Muslim population in the world (after Indonesia) is in India, which is also the largest democracy by population.
Some people in the countries of the Arab Spring are looking to Turkey as a possible model for the development of democracy. They should take care, however, in seeing the cultural and historical differences between them and Turkey, and should also take care to not expect to leap forward toward democracy without developing the proper checks and balances and liberalizing institutions. Turkey is in many ways still struggling with these parts of its democracy development. It is far from perfect, and most Turks would agree, it is working through its internal contradictions and complexities in what seems to be a very productive manner.
Each and everyone one of the countries now in transition needs to work through the very complex issues of its future political and economic development. They could learn a lot from Turkey, but a full transplantation of the Turkish model could prove to be very difficult.
Turkey is also an important bridge between Islam and the West and will likely be so for many decades, if not centuries, to come. Turkey is both east and west and can communicate clearly and effectively in both directions, and also from North to South.
Turkey is also a key player in the water and energy security of some important regional players and beyond. It is the major source of the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates and what is does with its water flowing toward Iraq and Syria can have huge effects downstream. Turkey is becoming a hugely important connecting stream via pipelines for energy from Central Asia, Russia and more to the Europeans. Pipeline systems that are planned could make it one of the most important energy connectors in the world. The Bosporus is also an important energy linkage, and possible choke point or global importance.
Turkey is also a transshipment point for vast amounts of cargo and other trade. It could also prove to be a major investment and finance connector globally if the financial infrastructure and institutions in the country are more fully developed.
The EU could be a bit more welcoming to this growing power on its doorstep. When people discuss emerging powers they mostly focus on China and India. Turkey should be on their radar screens in a very big way.
Turkey is important for economic, energy, water, diplomatic, military, political, inter-religious, intra-regional and inter-regional relations. It is a global player. We should all be keeping a keen eye toward Turkey in the future. My guess is that it will become an even more important global player.
Ataturk brought Turkey back from the abyss and saved the country in many ways. Turkey’s present and future leaders have the profound responsibility to carry that responsibility further. I have a lot of hope that they can succeed at that, even with the significant internal and external challenges they will likely face. It is a great country with great promise.
(Professor Paul Sullivan teaches at National Defense University and Georgetown University. He can be reached at: pjs57@georgetown.edu)