Turkey and Syria

Turkey and Syria

Viewpoint: Christian Science Monitor (excerpt)

The increasingly violent crackdown on democracy protesters in Syria has become a test for neighbouring Turkey and its ties to the West.

As a member of NATO and the only democracy in the Muslim Middle East, Turkey has boasted about “zero problems” on its borders. It actively sought to better ties with its neighbours, no matter their political persuasion. This approach has collected a string of successes, most notable Syria, with which Turkey almost went to war in 1998.

Since then, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has developed a warm friendship with Syria’s autocratic leader, President Bashar al-Asad. The two governments held joint cabinet meetings and military exercises. Trade surged.

But the limits of Turkey’s influence as a regional peace broker are now becoming clear. Despite Erdogan’s personal pressuring of Assad to reform, Syria’s forcible put-down and mass killing of hundreds of peaceful demonstrators has escalated to an alarming degree.

Similarly, after the democratic revolt began in Libya, Erdogan talked with Colonel Muammar Qaddafi, offering him a plan to quit power and call elections. Qaddafi ignored him, though Turkey was instrumental in negotiations to free four New York Times journalists who had been detained by Libyan authorities.

The reasons for Turkey’s limited success are multiple. Cornered dictators are not so easy to remove. Turkey also has tremendous stakes in preserving the status quo. Turkey is also keenly aware of the threat of refugees pouring over its border if Syria collapses.

Erdogan was ahead of the curve in calling for Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak to step down. But he has been slow to do the same for Qaddafi, and slow in his public condemnations of the Assad government.

Turkey has an opportunity in Syria to stand more firmly on the side of democratic protesters. There is only so much it can do, but it’s also not doing as much as it could.

What it really needs is to reassess its “zero problems” policy. That worked at a time of one-on-one crises with countries, and when the aim was to avoid conflict and improve business ties.

There is an ideological sea change under way in the Middle East. That requires a democracy like Turkey to choose sides and stand squarely behind freedom advocates.

Zero problems can no longer mean zero principles.

Turkey has a historic chance to swing solidly behind the democratic movement in the Middle East and North Africa. Hesitancy works to its detriment. It besmirches its credibility among protesters (Libyan rebels burned the Turkish flag because Ankara did not back the no-fly zone). Worse, its lack of definitive support makes it harder for democracy advocates to succeed.

As Turkey’s own president, Abdullah Gul, has written, “sooner or later the Middle East will become democratic.” Turkey, and its allies, must now make a strategic decision to back this movement — even when it’s inconvenient for them. And even at the risk of creating other problems.

via TheSpec – Turkey and Syria.