By Max Gevers
NOW that the chances of Turkey joining the EU in the foreseeable future have declined to zero, the prospect of a solution to the Cyprus problem too is close to nil. For Cyprus, Turkey’s road towards EU-accession always was a powerful and unique strategic opportunity, the strongest imaginable political impetus to negotiate a solution acceptable to both sides. That opportunity has now been squandered: by the Cyprus government, because of its attempts to have it all its own way and not seeing where and in which European capitals its real interests were best assured; by northern Cyprus, because its hard line government preferred the present situation in the absence of some powerful coaching and arm twisting by Turkey and never seemed sincere in negotiations; and by Ankara, because with the disappearance of a serious European incentive, it lacked the drive for hard negotiations. For Turkey there is, in the absence of a European option, no longer any incentive to achieve success, despite its zero-problem foreign policy.
Years have been wasted away and, with the departure of Mehmet Ali Talat in northern Cyprus and the increasing reluctance in some European countries concerning Turkey’s EU negotiations, this incredible incentive for Turkey to settle on Cyprus was lost. With that loss, chances for a solution in Cyprus are indeed very slim. They will remain so, and gradually if not very fast, become non-existent.
If a solution to the Cyprus problem is still really sought after, that is if the Cyprus government is really serious about negotiating and finding a solution, then it will have to come up with an incentive for Turkey. This must be powerful enough to change the present parameters of the negotiations in which almost nobody believes any more that something useful and substantial can be achieved. Is there such an incentive?
There is, and it concerns the exploration and production of hydrocarbons in the sea around Cyprus. There has been a lot of talk about the potential presence of oil and/or gas in this part of the Mediterranean. Much of it is wishful thinking based on inflated expectations of a very complex geology in the area. Up to now, not a drop of oil or gas has actually been found and brought to the surface; only some preliminary seismic exploration has been carried out. That may have been promising, but the experience of the search for oil and gas in seas elsewhere in the world has shown that it is almost impossible to make reliable estimates of possible reserves without exploratory drilling itself.
With the Cyprus conflict nowhere near a solution, it is extremely unlikely that Turkey will allow Cyprus full-scale and unhindered exploration in this part of the world. Israel may join in some exploration, but it could not be a fully fledged partner, without also becoming a burden for Cyprus’ foreign policy towards the Arab world. Besides, it would not take away the main factor, which is that Turkey and northern Cyprus have to be major partners in the game for serious and sustained exploration and production of hydrocarbons in the area. Cyprus must come to terms with Turkey on this issue; it cannot do without this, or the full potential exploitation of mineral riches in the seas around Cyprus will not be realised.
A second factor the Cyprus government should take into account, if it is at all serious about negotiating a solution, is that it should facilitate a very broad based internal debate, with the involvement of NGOs and civil society on the sort of solution it wants. The studies by researcher Alexandros Lordos some years ago were an excellent beginning but not properly followed up nor elaborated into operational conclusions. The present situation is that the Greek Cypriots, with a fair amount of contempt for historical truths, basically want it almost all for themselves. There is hardly any pretence about it with the consequence that, after the Annan plan, there was no serious thought on the type of solution that could and would be acceptable to all. Neither is there any thought on how to actually live in a Cyprus where Turkish and Greek Cypriots genuinely share responsibilities for government and society. Whenever some sort of compromise on specific subjects leaks out, it invariably meets ferocious opposition and accusation that the Cyprus government is giving it all away, a situation worse than any imaginary zero-sum game. It is an almost impossible situation for any government, and the present one is certainly not known for its courageous stands and decisions.
A third factor to be kept in mind is that the UN will not eternally remain in Cyprus to separate the parties, in the absence of even the remotest prospect for a solution. At the same time, this also offers an opportunity: the future possibility that the UN might well leave could trigger an increased sense of urgency that something serious and substantial should really happen quite soon.
A fourth aspect with which parties should rapidly come to terms is the idea that permanent partition, with northern Cyprus gradually being absorbed into Turkey itself, a scenario which foolishly northern Cyprus does not really seem to realise, is a very serious and by now realistic option. August 1974 is almost 37 years ago and the memory of a fully independent and united Cyprus is hardly very much alive these days, let alone that the situation before that time scarcely merited a beauty prize. Maybe it is indeed the case that Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, although grudgingly liking each other, do not really want to live together and certainly not to share responsibility for government and society.
These are the issues which should be at the forefront of everybody who is involved with Cyprus. A solution is still possible but realistically and unfortunately at present increasingly remote. The international community, indeed the EU, is bored stiff with Cyprus and hardly ever pays more than minimal lip-service when needed, something the Cyprus government should keep in mind as its time to take the EU presidency approaches.
Realism, political courage, serious civil society debate and, why not, some substantial assistance by a major outside power are needed. The old mantra that only Cypriots can solve their own problems has been proved totally and disastrously wrong, something only Cypriots don’t realise. Cypriots have, unfortunately, managed to transform an unwanted situation into a stale problem and a permanent misfortune. The incentive of the potential riches of oil and gas exploration and production could change this, but only if the authorities in Cyprus and Turkey really want that and if civil society in Cyprus has a productive say in the type of future society it wants to live in.
Source: Cyprus-mail