Armenian ‘Guerrilla Attack’ In US Congress Meets Its Waterloo

ÜMİT ENGİNSOY – Hurriyet Daily News

Backed by influential politicians and a major media campaign, the pro-Armenian lobby’s defeat by its conventionally powerful rival in the “genocide resolution” debate shows both the strengths and limits of guerrilla tactics in political battles.

In their campaign to get the U.S. House of Representatives to recognize World War I-era killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as “genocide,” U.S. Armenians artfully utilized some of the classic strategies of “guerilla warfare,” capitalizing on the elements of surprise and mobility to harass a larger, traditional “army” – in this case, Turkey.

But the strong effort to get such a resolution passed before the last day of the current House term – and with it, the leadership of Armenian advocate Nancy Pelosi – was, in the end, unsuccessful, as the lower house of the U.S. Congress wrapped up its two-year term Wednesday without taking up the topic.

The nature of many such political, and military, confrontations can be illuminated by considering the famous words of former U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld: “You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want.” In Rumsfeldian terms, the Armenians were equipped with the backing of outgoing House Speaker Pelosi, most of the Democratic big shots in the House and a full-fledge media campaign, but lacked the strong firepower needed to counter their conventionally powerful rival.

That the duration between the initiative and the outcome is inversely proportional to the success of the operation is another key tenet of guerrilla warfare, and one that proved crucial in this case. The Armenians decided to launch their “genocide” recognition effort at a time when their ally, Pelosi, had lost midterm congressional elections against the Republicans and would cede her post in early 2011. The latest push was a last-ditch chance to win before the Republican takeover takes place.

Celebrity-led campaign

The pro-resolution media assault began with a brilliant high-tech attempt by reality-TV star Kim Kardashian and rock musician Serj Tankian, both Armenian-American celebrities, to use the social-networking websites Twitter and Facebook to urge their millions of followers to demand that Pelosi schedule a vote before the year’s end on the “genocide resolution” bill pending in the House. Then last week, the Armenian National Committee of America, the largest and most influential U.S. Armenian group, structuralized and finalized the Armenian demand for a House floor vote.

Armenia claims up to 1.5 million Armenians were systematically killed in 1915 under the rule of the Ottoman Empire. Turkey denies this, saying that any deaths were the result of civil strife that erupted when Armenians took up arms for independence in eastern Anatolia.

Initially the Turks were confused; they were unable to grasp whether this was a serious and well-planned last-minute effort to get recognition for the Armenian claims of genocide or simply a way to raise funds for ANCA at the end of the year. The seriousness of the situation became clear Dec. 17, when ANCA announced that a House floor vote on the bill could be imminent.

At this point, the disadvantages of the Armenian guerrilla attack became apparent. Turkey immediately mobilized its allies in Washington, mainly President Barack Obama’s White House, the State Department and large defense companies. As regional power Turkey put its full weight to bear on the issue, the fight began to transform from a guerrilla attack into conventional warfare, giving Ankara the advantage.

In this way, a vote was averted Dec. 17, and the Armenians began to lose their strength. This, too, follows the guerrilla-warfare principle that as the length of time between the guerrilla initiative and the intended result increases, the guerrillas’ chances of success fade. Eventually the Armenian effort formally was defeated when Pelosi declined to schedule a vote on the “genocide” bill Wednesday, the last day of the outgoing House.

Throughout the later phases of the battle, Turkey and the Obama administration did play their parts well. Turkey refrained from blatant threats against the United States, and the White House declined to put public pressure on Pelosi. The pressure was of the behind-the-scenes variety. “Obama and his people deliberately stayed away from actions that would be seen as undermining Pelosi and the House’s sovereignty,” said one analyst in Washington.

One prime concern within the U.S. administration was that the passage of the Armenian “genocide” bill might prompt Turkey – already a self-confident and independently acting power seeking to make its own policies in the Middle East and confronting Israel – to speed up a “paradigm shift” in its foreign policy, a fear one U.S. official privately confirmed.

Reactions from Turkey, Armenia

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu on Thursday expressed pleasure that a resolution on recognizing Armenian claims of genocide had not been included in the official daily agenda of the U.S. House of Representatives.

“We are pleased that a development that would strike a blow to balances in the Caucasus and Turkish-American and Turkish-Armenian relations did not happen in the U.S. Congress. Common sense prevailed yesterday,” Davutoğlu told reporters. “We thank the U.S. administration for their efforts. This incident once again proved that assessment of historical incidents by political authorities is principally wrong.”

The Armenians were furious by the House’s failure to vote, but pledged to fight back in the new Congress. “Armenian-Americans are angered and disappointed by the failure of Speaker Pelosi and the House Democratic leadership to honor their commitment to allow a bipartisan majority to vote for passage of the Armenian genocide resolution,” said ANCA chairman Ken Hachikian. “Speaker Pelosi clearly had the majority, the authority and the opportunity to pass the Armenian genocide resolution, yet refused to allow a vote on this human-rights measure.”

“I am happy that reason and common sense have prevailed,” said Namik Tan, Turkey’s ambassador to Washington.

“We now know that a majority of Congress agrees with President Obama about the importance of the U.S.-Turkey relationship, and expect this wisdom to carry over into the next Congress so that we can avoid yet another needless round of bashing our ally Turkey,” said Lincoln McCurdy, president of the Turkish Coalition of America, a U.S. Turkish group.