Prof. Hayrettin KILIÇ
25 Temmuz 2010
, the First Nuclear Base in Turkey
On July 12 of this year, the Turkish Parliament approved the controversial agreement between Turkey and Russia that would allow for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant in Akkuyu Bay, located on the northeastern shores of the Mediterranean. The cooperation agreement also included establishment of a nuclear fuel cycle program and nuclear fuel fabrication facilities in the Republic of Turkey.
Over the last two years, there was competitive bidding process for the Akkuyu Bay nuclear power project. A number of nuclear suppliers from the West joined the process. However, with the exception of the Russians, mysteriously they all pulled their bids. In these suspicious circumstances, the Russians suspiciously won the contract to construct a 4800 MW nuclear power plant. The Electrical Society of Turkey, EMO, and several NGO’s sued the Turkish Government, claiming that illegal activities conducted during the bidding process. Their argument won the day, and in September 2009, the Turkish Government reluctantly cancelled the agreement with Russia.
However, the court decision did not put an end to the story. Prime Minister Erdogan’s Pro-Islamic Government immediately retaliated and began drafting a new nuclear cooperation agreement with Russia. After approval of the Turkish Parliament, every possible dissenting voice from the scientific and NGO community as well as from the local population of the Akkuyu region have been blocked, and future possible legal challenges in Turkey’s courts were neutralized in order to realize the first Sunni/Islamic nuclear complex in Turkey.
This new Nuclear Cooperating Agreement is an ill advised and poorly crafted document that is devoid of any transparency. Not only does it essentially block the Western nuclear industry from Turkey’s shores, but it also fails to involved Turkey’s own scientists and engineers. Indeed, Turkey’s own industry is disenfranchised from this $20 billion project, and worst of all, in case of a major nuclear accident during the Russian operation of the plant, the Republic of Turkey will be responsible for third party liability nuclear damage.
This ill-conceived agreement has ignited a united opposition from both sides of the political and scientific divide in Turkey. As one prominent pro-nuclear physicist stated, “Unfortunately, the old battle ground in Akkuyu between environmentalists and nuclear proponents like us now has been invaded by Russians”. In fact, after the repeated failures of the Russian-built complex in Belene, Bulgaria, the Russians have finally found a new base in Turkey to build their third generation VVER-1200 nuclear reactors. These reactors do not meet the European safety standards and are untested and unproven in the western world.
Akkuyu will be the first and only nuclear power plant complex in the world where a foreign – not the sovereign — nation will own the site-land, free-of-charge until the end of an unforeseen decommissioning process. Rosatom, the Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation, will use Russian origin of goods, workers, and services to build and operate an AES 2006 design (four VVER-1200 type reactor, 4500 MW) nuclear power plant for 60 years. In addition, Turkish Electrical Trade Contracting Co. Inc. (TETAS) guarantees that it will purchase 70% of the electrical energy generated during the first 15 years of operation at a weighted average price of 12.35 US cents per kwh,
Ironically, this shady agreement does not require any financial burden or investment by the Turkish government. Energy economists, however, agree that according to Article 10 of the agreement (which outlines the power purchase portion of the accord) well justifies a 100% Russian financing of the project because it would yield a speedy economic return of investment within 15 years. Rosatom will own all of the stacks and will have control of the future distribution and sale of the remaining 49% of minority shares. In addition, during the first 15 years of operation, the Russians will be able to sell the electrical energy — 30% of Units 1 and 2 and 70% of Units 3 and 4 — for 15.3 cent/kwhr on the Turkish free market.
Over the last 30 years, the economic arguments for nuclear power have often prevailed, particularly when economic times were tough in Turkey coupled inability to attract foreign investors. Turkish politicians were more interested in quick fixes for the country’s energy growth, rather than focusing on the true costs of financing, building infrastructures and operating a nuclear power plant. As a result, several past attempts to build a nuclear power plant in Akkuyu failed because of possible ties to Pakistani nuclear weapon program or bidding irregularities and bribing scandals.
Economists concede, whatever feasibility method used by the Turkish government for this project, that it is an exceptional investment opportunity for Russia. The picture for Turkey is not so clear with the costs of such potentially detrimental socio-economic outcomes as nuclear accidents and emergence response-planning, waste management, and decommissioning yet to be determined. In addition, the ecological effect of a nuclear power plant on local marine life as well as the long-term geopolitical consequences have been overlooked. Each day, more than 3 billion gallons of sea water will be needed to be circulated through the power plant; this process will kill billions of larva and jubinal fish and eventually destroy local marine life within 10 years as happened in California.
Akkuyu is located on the northeast corner of the Mediterranean Sea where average sea water temperature is higher than atmospheric temperature at least 6 months a year. It will be the first nuclear power plant using cooling water that has a very high salinity of 39% and with temperatures reaching 30 degrees plus Celsius during the summer months. These environmental conditions will severely affect cooling capacity and the power output of the plant during the hot summer months. In addition very corrosive sea water will shorten and often hamper the cooling system’s efficiency and operational life of the plant.
A great difficulty will arise after 15 years if the Rosatom or its successors decide to abandon the site and the Turkish government resumes full ownership of the plant. Technologically speaking, this power plant, cooled by warm salty sea water, will be a commercially inefficient energy generator, and it will need major expensive renovation and maintenance. Given such a scenario, it may not be economically feasible to continue operations at the 15-year point. A similar decision was reached in Canada when six CANDU reactors were taken out of commission due to high maintenance costs.
Donating Akkuyu site free of charge to Russia is extremely disadvantageous to the Turkish people; it is not the same as if the Turkish government would give the same privileges to Samsung, Siemens, or GE for an advanced industrial establishment investment. During the construction period (approximately 10 years), an estimated 10,000 mostly foreign workers will be residing in Akkuyu and its vicinity. This temporary population jump will have unforeseen social and ecological consequences for the region. And to further complicate matters, these foreign workers will have special work visas and thus not be subject to any national or local laws or customs. Finally, Akkuyu will be an unique base of operations for the Russian nuclear industry, and it serve as their launching pad into the global nuclear technology market for the next 60 years.