RUSSIA IS LOSING THE BATTLE OVER THE CRIMEA TO WASHINGTON AND BRUSSELS
Author: Tatiana Ivzhenko
[The European Union vies for clout with the Crimea.]
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
October 20, 2009
The European Union joins the Russian-American backstage battle for
the Crimea. Web site of the Ukrainian government posted a brief
note to the effect that implementation of the EU’s Joint
Initiative of the Commonwealth in the Crimea was going to begin
right after election of the president. The program in question
included investment projects in all economic and social spheres.
Sources in the government claim that European countries’ plan
of actions on the peninsula was already charted and that its
endorsement was scheduled for spring 2010. Each EU participant
will be put in charge of some particular sphere like economic
development (Great Britain), environmental protection (Sweden),
and civil society (the Netherlands). Finland, Germany, Hungary,
Poland, Lithuania and, perhaps, Estonia are prepared to join the
program too. Kiev counts on up to 12 million euros worth of
investments in the Crimea in 2010 alone. Gunnar Wiegand who
represents the European Commission in the project recently met
with the government of Ukraine. He informed the Ukrainians that
the European Union regarded the Crimea as an extremely important
region, “one with a powerful potential for all of Europe”.
As far as Senior Deputy Premier Alexander Turchinov was
concerned, the new Crimean project meant rapid rapprochement with
Europe and a wholly new level of relations with it.
“The project is of paramount importance for the government of
Ukraine and for Yulia Timoshenko… particularly at the onset of
the presidential campaign,” Konstantin Bondarenko of the Gorshenin
Institute of Management Issues confirmed. “It offers them an
opportunity to show that the Crimea is part of Ukraine and, also
importantly, that Ukraine is a country to invest in.” Bondarenko
recalled that President Leonid Kuchma had approached the Russians
with analogous ideas in 2002 – 2003 [with the idea of joint
investments in development of the peninsula]. “Unfortunately, I
cannot call the Russians particularly enthusiastic or energetic,”
he said. “At the very least, I do not think much of the economic
results of the Russians’ activeness. The impression is that they
erroneously made an emphasis on politics but people cannot be
expected to last long on slogans alone.”
Vladimir Kazarin of the Sevastopol administration seconded
this opinion. “It is clear now that Russia is losing the battle
for influence with the Crimea. It was Russia and the United States
vying for clout with the peninsula once, but no longer. The
European Union is joining them too, these days, and Brussels makes
an emphasis on investments rather than on politics.”
Kazarin pointed out that the new player moved in just as
Russia was losing ground. “We witness these days what would have
been considered impossible barely a year ago,” he said. “We see
pickets with anti-Russian slogans and posters in front of the
Black Sea Fleet HQ. What counts is that these protest actions are
organized by Black Sea Fleet’s ex-employees. I can only surmise
that the Russian authorities are not informed, that they do not
grasp long-term political consequences of the current underfunding
of the Black Sea Fleet… when 8,000 employees including 1,000
officers are to be laid off, when wage arrears mount along with
debts to Sevastopol’s department of public works and to the
pensions foundation. The situation is challenging indeed. Anyone
capable of solving economic problems of Sevastopol and, broader,
all of the Crimea will earn the locals’ gratitude,” Kazarin said.
Neither did the United States withdraw from the battle for
the peninsula. Establishment of a diplomatic mission or
information bureau in Sevastopol was suggested this spring but
protests from the population and the local authorities persuaded
Washington to table the idea then. It is on the agenda again,
these days. It is the US Consulate General that the Americans want
to set up in the Crimea now. “The way I see it, problems were
encountered because the Crimean authorities had deliberately gone
too far in their efforts to make the whole matter political,”
Vladimir Nalivaichenko of the Ukrainian Security Service said.
“What can be so political about an American mission? We all see
how the Russian Consulate General operates in the Crimea.
Diplomats were the first to arrive, followed by Russian
businesses, capitals, and so on.”
Valery Chaly of the Razumkov Center did not think that the
Americans could really count on unproblematic existence in the
Crimea. The population was thoroughly suspicions of all and any
Washington’s initiatives concerning the peninsula, he said. Not so
the EU’s initiatives which the locals never associated with
politics.
Political scientists meanwhile comment that Russia does not
even try to counter these Western moves. Crimean pro-Russian
organizations complain of the lack of support. The Russian
Community of the Crimea, Russian Bloc, Russian Crimea, Tavria
Alliance, Faith, Crimean Civil Activists, and Crimean Russian
Youth Center set up a coordinating council. This body will chart a
common strategy and coordinate joint efforts aimed at “promotion
of the Russians’ legitimate rights and interests.”
One of the activists explained that interests of the Russians
were vulnerable and needed promotion because “the Ukrainian
authorities and their Western patrons are determined to drive the
Black Sea Fleet out of the Crimea while everyone is distracted by
the crisis.” The activist commented that the news of the EU’s
initiatives was released in the midst of fresh scandals involving
the Black Sea Fleet. Ukrainian media outlets reported movement of
the fleet’s units and forces – allegedly to training grounds – the
Ukrainian authorities had never been notified of in advance. Local
nationalists appealed to the authorities to confiscate military
hardware of the Black Sea Fleet for violation of the terms of
presence specified by Ukrainian-Russian agreements.
Ukrainian experts point out that Moscow deliberately refuses
to acknowledge the latest scandals involving the fleet and the
Ukrainian organizations that volunteer to promote interests of
Russia. Political scientists agree that political actions are
pointless when there is an economic crisis to grapple with.
Economic projects, ones that offer jobs, salaries, and security
are the only thing capable of swaying public opinion. Economic
projects are precisely what the European Union might beat the
United States and Russia with.
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