RBC Daily
October 13, 2009
Is what Moscow is after
NOW THAT THE ARMENIAN-TURKISH BORDER TREATY IS SIGNED, YEREVAN NEEDS THE KREMLIN’S SUPPORT
Author: Vyascheslav Leonov
[Some profound changes are in the offing in the South Caucasus.]
President Dmitry Medvedev met with his Armenian counterpart
Serj Sargsjan, yesterday. The Armenian-Turkish border opened all
over again will open a broad vista of opportunities for Russian
Railways, but there is always the danger that Turkish capitals
will expand into Armenia too and start herding Russian businesses
out.
The presidents actually met but a few days ago. It happened
in Kishinev, Moldova, at the CIS summit where they and Azerbaijani
leader Ilham Aliyev discussed Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian and
Turkish foreign ministers Edward Nalbandjan and Ahmed Davutoglu
signed the protocols to establish diplomatic relations and open
the border in Geneva, the following day. Profound changes are in
the offing in the South Caucasus, so that Moscow has to adjust its
relations with Yerevan in accordance with the new geopolitical
realities. Sargsjan is going Turkey to a football match between
Armenian and Turkish national teams tomorrow, so that a stopover
in Moscow for the last minute consultations was probably a good
idea.
The expected opening of the Armenian-Turkish border offers a
whole spectrum of opportunities to Russia. Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov already called Russian Railways prepared to provide
railroad service between Armenia and Turkey. Russian Railways
obtained a 30-year concession for Armenian railroads, last year.
In theory, the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement may even make
railroad service between Armenia and Turkish ports possible at
some later date.
Medvedev and Sargsjan discussed the latest developments from
the standpoint of new promising projects as well. Dmitry Abzalov,
an expert with the Center for Political Situation, suggested that
a transport corridor via Turkey might be established to allow
Russia to export oil to Armenia. Alexander Skakov of the Institute
of Strategic Studies, however, warned that Turkish capitals could
be relied on to rush to the newly opened Armenian market and start
pushing Russian businesses out.
Alexander Krylov, an expert with the Institute of Global
Economy and International Relations, said that Sargsjan needed the
Kremlin’s political support at this time. The protocols signed in
Geneva had to be ratified by the national parliaments of Armenia
and Turkey yet. Armenian nationalists in the meantime claim that
Sargsjan is through with the struggle for acknowledgment of the
genocide and prepares to abandon Nagorno-Karabakh. In fact, the
opposition already promised to ruin ratification. “Should
ratification necessitate the use of the so called administrative
resource, the Armenians might respond to it with mass riots, and
Sargsjan needs the Kremlin on its side,” Krylov said.
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