The United States, New York, Oct.10 /Trend News K. Pashayeva /
The process of normalizing the Ankara -Yerevan relations, developed on the incorrect basis, cannot be supported, Energy Expert Ferruh Demirmen told the Turkish Forum website.
The protocols give no assurance or confidence that Armenia will take steps expected with normalization. The indications are that the Turkish government has forced itself into a predicament, possibly even a trap, of its own making, Demirmen said.
Earlier Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Trend News in an exclusive interview that Turkey and Armenia will sign a deal to establish diplomatic ties on Oct. 10 or 11.
Three major Turkish-American umbrella organizations, the Assembly of Turkish American Associations (ATAA), Turkish Coalition of America (TCA), and the Federation of Turkish American Associations (FTAA) have supported the normalization process. They considered this step as a step towards regional peace and as a blow to the Armenian diaspora, making it ineffective in its lobbying efforts against Turkey, the Turkish Forum wrote.
However Demirmen believes, the normalization process, in its present form, is ill-founded, ill-advised, and cannot be supported from the Turkish point of view. The arguments advanced for normalization, while sounding reasonable, and in principle commendable, represent to a large extent wishful thinking for the Turkish side, not backed by the two diplomatic protocols announced by Turkey and Armenia
No caveat or pre-conditions are attached to normalization and the opening of the common border,” the expert said. Given that the opening of the border will overwhelmingly benefit Armenia, the protocols call for no concessions from Armenia, Demirmen added.
Genocide allegations and the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict are the chief thorny issues between the two countries; but for Turkey, Armenia’s hitherto hostile behavior is also a cause for deep resentment, the Turkish expert added.
On the genocide issue, the protocols call for the establishment of a bilateral commission to study “the historical dimension with the aim to restore mutual confidence between the two nations, including … an examination of the historical records and archives to define existing problems and formulate recommendations.” There is no mention to specifically address the genocide issue, whether it happened or not, Demirmen said.
This work may continue for years, during which time the border will remain open. Because, the Armenians diaspora would continue to insist on recognizing the genocide, Demirmen wrote.
There are also reports from Armenian sources that the Armenian government will insist that the historical commission should focus not on whether “genocide” occurred – because this is a given “fact” – but rather, how it occurred.
In a recent interview with the Armenian Reporter in New York, Armenian President Serzh Sargisyan noted that Armenia and the diaspora are “one family,” and that recognition of “genocide” is a “long-awaited victory for justice.”
A clear message, but not a helpful one for normalizing relations, Demirmen believes.
The language in the protocols on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is even fuzzier. Other than a “commitment to the peaceful settlement of regional and international disputes,” the protocols contain no concrete reference to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. There is no mention of ending the illegal occupation of the Azeri territory by Armenia – notwithstanding the UN resolutions – of the innocent Azerbaijani civilians that fell victim to ethnic cleansing by Armenian forces, and of the plight of one million Azerbaijani refugees, Demirmen noted.
The author also noted that on a recent visit to Moscow, the Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian stated that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue never entered into negotiations with Turkey, and never will.
In any case, while the Nagorno-Karabakh issue drags on in negotiations, the Turkey-Armenia border will remain open, the expert believes.
Normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations without the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be a “sellout” by Turkey of brotherly Azerbaijan, and a betrayal of Azeri nation’s trust in Turkey.
The chief fallout from a rift in Azerbaijani-Turkish relations will be energy projects – including Shah Deniz II gas supply for the Nabucco project. Throughput to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) crude pipeline may also be curtailed, the expert added.
Source: en.trend.az, 10.10.2009
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