The TRT interview with Sedat Laciner, the Director of International Strategic Research Organization, “Turkey Made The World Remember Karabakh Conflict” published in www.HistoryofTruth.com on 30 September 2009, concerning the protocols that will allegedly be signed on October 10 by Turkey and Armenia, is replete with perceptions and/or predictions that I find hard to accept or support . I decided to share with my readers my responses to that interview on a line-by-line basis.
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TRT: Why Switzerland?
LACINER: First of all, it is hard to find countries that do not support Armenian allegations.
(EK: There are no countries in the entire continents of Asia or Africa which support Armenian allegations. There are only three countries in Latin America and only two in North America which support Armenian allegations (all because of the Armenian political pressure.) Out of 55 or so countries in Europe, small or large, only 15 support Armenian allegations(also because of the Armenian political intimidation.) In summary, out of some 204 countries which are members of the U.N., only about 20 countries support Armenian allegations—i.e. less than 10 percent. Therefore, to say “it is hard to find countries that do not support Armenian allegations” is incorrect, unfair, and if not based on ignorance or sloppiness, may be even considered malicious. )
LACINER: … Of course it would be better if it would be an objective country like England,
(EK: England? Objective? Really? England is the one party that is most responsible for the continuation of the genocide allegations today which are based on the Blue Book, wartime propaganda material compiled and edited by Toynbee and Bryce. The Turkish parliament in 2005 sent a joint letter/request to the House of Commons and Lords to take back the hearsay and forgeries contained in that book and apologize to Turkey for causing immeasurable suffering by deliberately spreading falsified information. England was at the heart of using Ottoman-Armenians against the Ottoman Empire before, during, and after the WWI. To call England objective would be to ignore history.)
LACINER: …but the mission of mediation is an important factor here. Switzerland was not very ambitious for mediation.
(EK: It is unacceptable, if not also embarrassing, to have to go to Switzerland, hat in hand, and asking for their mediation. Switzerland has passed a law banning questioning a certain characterization of a historic event without the court verdict supporting such ban. Thus, the Swiss have chosen to be a party to the conflict. Who are these Turkish negotiators who ignorantly brought Switzerland into this conflict, much less begged for their mediation? Don’t they have any idea what happened in 1920 in a small town called Sevres just a few kilometers from where they are? Did they forget about spirit of Lausanne 1923? )
LACINER: … On the other hand, it could be an advantage for Turkey that Switzerland previously gave support to the Armenian allegations.
(EK: How can Switzerland’s blatantly pro-Armenian beliefs and policies be an advantage? How can any logical and informed person believe such a naïve suggestion?)
LACINER: … Turkey can make itself understood better and same time it can strengthen its thesis.
(EK: Turkey needs Switzerland to be understood? Or strengthen its thesis? Is it not strong enough now? How can it be stronger by talking to the Swiss? )
TRT: What is the position of Azerbaijan?
LACINER: Turkey is already making all steps with Azerbaijan. Karabakh problem is as important as the issue of so called Armenian genocide for Turkey. Turkey already declared this and Prime Minister several times underlined that fact. In the process, if we count Switzerland, Azerbaijan is like a fourth party. Besides, Turkey and Azerbaijan constantly share information about the processes. Azerbaijan is being informed about developments, other than that Turkey took the approval of Azerbaijan about this issue. Azerbaijan is aware of Turkey’s good will and they trust Turkey.
(EK: Is that why Aliyev hastily went to Russia last May to promise Nabucco-earmarked gas to Russian gas pipeline as soon as news of Turkey-Armenia border opening hit the Turkish media? Because Azerbaijan trusts Turkey? )
LACINER: … The World was unaware of the occupation in Karabakh till now. The land that Armenia keeps under occupation is more than the land that Israel invaded. Turkey made the world realize the occupation in Nagorno-Karabakh.
TRT: What will be the gains of Turkey?
LACINER: Success of protocols is dependent on the process of resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh problem, and that is told to Obama, Russia and France. The next meeting towards resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be in a much more serious mood.
(EK: We will see soon enough, won’t we? Too much is bet on too few “perceived” gains that are questionable and doubtful. )
LACINER: … First of all, this process (alone) is the gain of Turkey by itself.
(EK: Says who?)
LACINER: … In the opinion of international community, Turkey had an image like Turkey was smothering Armenia and not letting it develop. By this process Turkey proved that it is not aggressive.
(EK: Not a convincing argument. Even if it were true, does the dubious outcome justify the high cost?)
LACINER: … If protocols can be realized Turkey will gain many more advantages. A committee of historians is planned to be established. Such a committee may undermine the genocide allegations of Armenian Diaspora.
Although there are rumours about borders, recognition of borders clearly mentioned in protocols.
Although Armenia does not recognize treaty of Kars now, they will be recognizing it through protocols.
Dashnaks are very uncomfortable that ratifying protocols will mean that Armenia recognizes Turkey’s territorial integrity.
(EK: As you read these lines, Armenia’s constitution still refers to eastern Anatolia as Western Armenia. Armenia’s politicians and Diaspora make no secret of the fact that they want land and reparations fro Turkey. So, what exactly does it mean to say “recognition of borders clearly mentioned in protocols”? At the first opportunity, cannot Armenia easily say “Yes, Turks put that statement in the protocol, but we never agreed to it”? Then what?
LACINER: … What will be the gains of Turkey? We can count three of them. First is recognition of borders,
(EK: Let’s not count the eggs before the chickens lay them. We don’t even have chickens yet…)
LACINER: … second is about genocide allegations, and third is Nagorno-Karabakh problem.
(EK: Protocol before resolution in Karabagh or resolution in Karabagh before protocol? That is the question. It should have been the latter. Now a resolution in Karabagh will be harder. Why would Armenia feel motivated to end its military occupation and allow Azeri refugees to return now that Armenia got what it wanted?)
LACINER: … Normalization of relations would be the fourth gaining for Turkey.
TRT: What kind of developments are expected to happen in Armenia and Caucasus?
LACINER: … Opening of borders will affect Russia.
(EK: After the Georgian war, Russia was trapped in Armenia. Turkey, through its ill-advised protocols with Armenia, not only saved Armenia but also Russia-in-Armenia.)
LACINER: … But the main problem might be the situation of Georgia. Since Armenia and Azerbaijan use Georgia as a route for transportation, the influence of Georgia will decrease. On the other hand, Azerbaijan will have another gate to World and it will be relaxing for Azerbaijan. But we should not be expecting results so soon. Moving in hurry may cause conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh.
(EK: Diplomacy and international relations are a balancing act of interests, not unlike a trade. The Turkish term describes it bets: “alis-veris” taking-and-giving. What these protocols represent fro Turkey is “veris-veris”, giving-and-giving.)
What if we lose Azerbaijan’s friendship and support because of a murky dealing with Armenia? Who will fill the Baku-Tiflis-Ceyhan pipeline with oil?
Nothing would make me happier that to be proven wrong on all of the above. But I don’t hold out any hope that the upcoming developments will prove me wrong anytime soon…