Turkey’s Evolving Dynamics

An update of a previous
June 2008 report,
Turkey’s Shifting Dynamics.

Relations between the United States and Turkey stand at a critical
juncture. Turkey is a key ally in the advancement of U.S. interests
vis-à-vis the Middle East, Eurasia, and global energy diversification.
Turkey still sees the United States as its closest ally and wants to
be a partner in advancing mutual interests, particularly in its
immediate environs. This confluence of interests gives revitalization
of bilateral ties greater urgency. Yet the relationship remains
somewhat strained and lacks the strategic character it once enjoyed.
The two governments have made steady progress during the past few
years to repair the damage done by differences over the Iraq War and
the handling of its turbulent consequences. The visits by President
Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during the first
few months of the administration suggest a commitment to further
strengthening relations. However, much remains to be done.

Turkey has been buffeted in recent years by turmoil in its
neighborhood, beginning with the consequences of the Iraq war, then
again with the Russian invasion of Georgia in the summer of 2008.
Turkish leaders will continue to pursue policies that seek to avoid
such regional instability, and they expect understanding from
Washington on this score. Washington, too, has the right to expect
that Ankara will behave as a loyal ally when mutual interests are
threatened.

This report, prepared by seven senior CSIS scholars and two colleagues
from other institutions, offers a comprehensive and balanced
assessment of the uncertain state of Turkey’s domestic political and
social dynamics and the complexity of its relations with its
neighbors. It reflects extensive field research in Turkey and
neighboring countries, as well as consultations with a wide range of
officials, scholars, journalists, and leaders of business and trade
associations.

PDF

Turkey’s Evolving Dynamics CSIS March 2009