Outreach to Armenia prompts Azeri threat

by Barçın Yinanç

ISTANBUL -Concerned that the Turkish government might open its border with Armenia before reconciliation is reached, the Azerbaijani government has signaled it might stop selling natural gas to Turkey.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev told third parties that Baku would cut gas supplies to Turkey if Ankara reaches an agreement with Yerevan before substantial progress is underway on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review has learned. As a sign of how serious it is, Azerbaijan signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia last week for long-term supply of gas at market prices.

Turkey and Armenia have been holding talks to normalize ties, which would involve the establishment of diplomatic relations and the opening of borders. Although Turkey was one of the first countries to recognize Armenia in 1991, Ankara has no diplomatic relations with its neighbor. In 1993, Ankara closed its border with Armenia in an act of solidarity with Azerbaijan after Armenia occupied Nagorno-Karabakh.

Turkey and Armenia are said to have come very close to an agreement on the timetable to normalize relations. As April 24 is approaching, the date each year when the United States issues a presidential statement on the World War I mass killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, expectations are high that Turkey and Armenia will announce an agreement. U.S. President Barack Obama had pledged to recognize the Armenian killings as “genocide” during his election campaign. A joint statement by Turkish and Armenian officials on the normalization of relations might prevent Obama from using the word “genocide.”

This development in turn has upset the Azerbaijani government, which argues a decision to open Turkey’s borders with Armenia would leave Baku at a disadvantage in negotiating for the withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijani territory. The ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, has been the target of severe criticism in the Azerbaijani press with commentators there accusing the Turkish government of selling out. The Turkish Foreign Ministry has been informed that Aliyev has told third parties that were Turkey to open its borders to Armenia, cooperation on energy supplies would end.

Ankara and Baku have been trying to reach an agreement over the price of natural gas Turkey buys from Azerbaijan through the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline. The agreement to buy natural gas for $120 per 1,000 cubic meters for the duration of the first year following the opening of the pipeline has long ended and the two failed to reach an agreement as Azerbaijan wants to sell its gas at international market prices, which is around $350 per 1,000 cubic meters.

Russia, on the other hand, has been courting Azerbaijan to buy its gas at international market prices in order to undermine the Nabucco project, which aims to bring Central Asian gas to Europe via Turkey. Gazprom and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan last week signed a memorandum of understanding for long-term supplies of Central Asian gas to Russia at market prices, Web site Euractiv.com reported yesterday. According to Gazprom’s press release, the parties committed to massive long-term cooperation after an agreement was reached March 27 to settle the terms of Azerbaijan’s gas sales to Russia.

Pavel K. Baev, a senior researcher from the Oslo International Research Institute, said the project could make Nabucco irrelevant as Azerbaijan is seen as the most likely gas supplier for Nabucco. The Turkish government is under pressure from the Obama administration to finalize and announce the agreement with Yerevan. Turkey and Armenia have agreed on most of the wording of a protocol for normalization but there are still some points where the two need to agree. The Turkish side wants to insert the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh in the protocol, but the Armenian side has not been compromising on the issue.