TURKEY OR RUSSIA

TURKEY OR RUSSIA, EAST OF GEORGIA:

A STRUGGLE FOR MINDS, HEARTS AND RESOURCES – August 23, 2008

The battle for Georgia will dominate the headlines for months, probably years to come. The new Russia can be distinguished from the old Soviet Union, but regardless is committed to regaining the influence of old empires. The dismantling of the Soviet Union has been experienced as a great tragedy by the current Putin leadership and Georgia is only the opening move in righting this perceived wrong. The real battleground for supremacy will unfold further east, the resource rich, newly independent states of the Caucuses and Central Asia.

WHERE THE ENERGY PIPELINES END
Georgia is the transit point for the crucial new energy pipelines from the Caspian Sea Basin and the recently exploited fields in newly independent states. The problem of transport and transit had already impeded the development of such oil and natural gas fields. Pipelines through Georgia

to the Black Sea or linked to Turkey’s Mediterranean ports was believed

to be the optimum strategic option. This avoided Iran as well as the Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict zone. It also was designed to detour

Russia as not to further its potential stranglehold on oil and natural gas

flows westward.

United States support for the Taliban in Afghanistan in the mid 1990’s was part of a broader strategy to find an alternative to the potential Russian stranglehold as well as Iran’s central geopolitical position. In that vision, energy would flow through a stabilized even if socially unpalatable Afghanistan toward an allied Pakistan and its Indian Ocean ports. The Russians did not need the revenue as much as they resented the loss of potential influence and ability to use such as political leverage on the Euro-Atlantic alliance and more importantly upon the newly independent energy producers of the Caucuses and Central Asia.

WHERE THE ENERGY PIPELINES BEGIN
Lost in this strategic maneuvering and the immediacy of the Georgia conflict is the situation of the states at the source of current and planned pipelines, particularly of the Caspian Basin. The issue of transit and transport remains as a key uncertainty. However, the fate and development of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan remains the fundamental consideration in terms of the stability of these regions as producers and providers of energy and other crucial natural resources sought by an East and West with ever increasing appetites.

These Central Asian and Caucus sovereign republics are frequently viewed in a homogeneous light. They are all newly independent from the Soviet Union. They are struggling to adapt democratic methodology to a system still very much dominated by Soviet style politics and even personalities. Most of these states are indigenous Muslim majority populations with significant a Russian minorities.

However, there are key differences and viewing these countries as homogeneous is both racist and risky. Their level of political, economic and social evolution varies significantly and is frequently influenced by local considerations rather than some global attraction. Even the Muslim religious tradition is not homogeneous. For example, Azerbaijan is majority Shia rather than Sunni Islam prevailing in most of the other states. The wealth and development of natural resource exploitation varies due in part to capital and technology commitments from competing national and commercial interests. States such as Azerbaijan have been at the forefront, as much due to geopolitical fortunes.

Nonetheless, shared factors will have a significant sway over these states, almost as a flock just now starting to exploit untapped resources and preparing to take flight. Whether these states drift more toward Russia or even China versus Westward will be determined by economic, political and even military developments. The resolution of Afghanistan will be one factor. China’s crackdown in the neighboring traditionally Islamic majority western provinces will be another. However, perhaps the crucial, if not defining, wind will be the old sway of Soviet Russia versus the influence of the Euro-Atlantic alliance through Turkey’s deep-rooted cultural, religious and linguistic ties.

THE TURKEY THAT BINDS
Turkey is the core of what used to be an empire stretching from Central Europe to China. This diversity can today be seen in the melting pots that are the major Turkish metropolitan centers, such as Istanbul. Turkey seems to have been pre-absorbed with its tug and pull efforts to enter the European Union; however it has not forgotten the Ottoman roots that extended to the Caspian Basin and beyond. In fact, it is Turkey’s cultural, religious and linguistic ties to the region that give it the ability, if not necessarily the advantage to compete with old Soviet influences and potential forays from China or even Iran.

Ironically, the Islamic elements that appear to be so undesired by some of Europe’s establishment in accepting Turkey as full partner may in the long run prove most valuable for the Euro-Atlantic families geo-strategic considerations in the Caspian Basin. Regardless, the fact that Islam may be part of the coalescing formula immediately raises wariness.

The politics and government of Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Erdogan have come under suspicion by simply being defined as “Islamist.” However, the evidence is that this government is moving Turkey closer to aspirations and meeting the standards for European Union inclusion, notwithstanding or perhaps because of its Islamist pedigree. Turkey’s commitment and contributions to NATO have been enhanced under these so termed “Islamists.” Turkey’s relationship with Israel has not suffered.

ANOTHER BRIC IN THE WALL
The BRIC economic marvels, (Brazil, Russia, India and China), are the most focused upon as the up and coming economic states. However, while Turkey is geographically and by population smaller, it is perhaps even a more impressive phenomenon in view of the more limited natural resources within its own borders. The economic boom that Turkey has experienced over the last decade has been fueled by the stability afforded by Erdogan’s government and the new political force behind it. Compared to five previous decades of disruptive interventions and coups by the military establishment, it has been difficult to accredit protests of longstanding elite. Turkey’s transformation may not yet be complete, but there is a distinctly traceable trend toward greater democratic and economic inclusion.

This egalitarian economic boom has also fueled the rise of mercantilism. The impact has been most profound in the states with historic ties to Turkey. Perhaps the Hanseatic League or the evolution of Dutch City states of Northern European are other profound examples of where social, political and economic factors amalgamated to give rise to new trade, wealth, republican ideals, social mobility and a broader Renaissance.

Time will only tell if the comparison is remotely appropriate; however many Turks trace their new renaissance to the philosophy of Rumi, the Sufi philosopher who lived in the 13th century, the time that Ottoman rulers oversaw the further rise and expansion of their already sizable Empire. Any philosophy based upon Islam, especially with Europe’s long competition with the Ottoman Empire, may fuel unease in some quarters, even if there is recognition that the Euro-Atlantic family must enhance common ground with Muslim peoples. There is a tendency to favor those social and political leaders within the Muslim majority world who project the most non-Islamic characteristics, even beyond secularism.

It is naïve as well as indicative of intolerance though to believe that radical Islam will be effectively confronted by anti-Islamic dogma. Rumi’s philosophy grounded both in Islamic theology and tolerant ideology justifies optimism for a new page in today’s broader Islamic world. The personification of this rejuvenated philosophy in Turkey is Fetullah Gulen, recently voted the most influential philosophic contributor globally.

Mr. Gulen, who currently lives in the US, stands as the ideologue behind many of today’s rising social, political and mercantilist leading lights in Turkey, but also the Turkic influence in much of the Caspian Basin and Central Asia.

THE REMNANTS OF ROMANOV AND SOVIET EMPIRE
The Russian influence in the Caspian Basin and Central Asia is more recent, dating back initially to the expansion of Romanov Russia and culminating with Soviet consolidation a century earlier, much at the expense of the Ottomans and its allies. The Soviet influence is evident in political and economic methodology and social custom. The Russian alphabet became dominant over Arabic or European script. Much of the population speaks Russian, and it has been the language of choice for the political elite. And, larger Russian minorities call these states home, largely as a legacy Soviet designed resettlement efforts.

The Soviet influence has had a mixed impact, and would be judged from progressive to regressive depending on the observer’s own perspective. And, despite the historical perspective of the Russians by some as occupiers, the Russian influence remains significant, if not dominant, in style and substance. While the US has established a military as well as diplomatic presence in a few of these states, Russian sway is frequently dominant. Soviet authoritarian style still too frequently dictates, and the need for political reform is dampened by cumulative internal and external factors.

THE NEW
The influence of the Euro-Atlantic states is most evident through the economic development of the region’s abundant natural resources. NGO’s, such as George Soro’s Open Society, are present in promoting democratic and open society policies, although their impact is still largely undetermined.

In a few of these states, political Islam had become the main alternative to old style authoritarian rule. These competing forces have frequently collided, a few times with thousands of casualties as the specter of radical Islam has frequently been relied upon as a pretext for crack downs and perpetuation of ruling elites. The confrontation is likely to be repeated, and the influence of radicalism could grow, without progressive alternatives for change.

Many hold out Turkey as the hope. Future religious leaders from these traditional Turkic states are now increasingly educated in Turkey. (Many from the Balkans have also adopted Turkey as refuge). The influence of a more robust Turkish media is spreading despite differences in dialect. Turkish secular universities are hosting many of the regions future business, professional and political leaders.

TURKEY’S TRANSFORMATION BEYOND ITS BORDERS
Turkey’s current makeover has decisive implications for its place within the Euro-Atlantic family. However, it goes beyond whether Turkey will be accepted into the European Union. The potential rise of Turkey as economic and political power will decisively influence the development and inclinations of culturally linked states of Central Asia and the Caspian Basin.

Turkey has been a staunch backer of Georgia and its integration into NATO. Undoubtedly Turkey is more cognizant of its ever increasing role as fronting Euro-Atlantic interests in the region, as well as its historical rivalry with first Russia and then the Soviet Union. Turkey is working on closer economic ties to the US to reflect already the integral defensive relationship through NATO and beyond.

A resurgent Russia may or may not be reverting to cold war tendencies. The newly independent states of Central Asia and the Caspian Basin, with their abundant natural resources, are in the sway of redrawn spheres of influence. Turkey or Russia will be the two immediate polar attractions.

Muhamed Sacirbey

——————–

Mr. Muhamed Sacirbey holds B.A. degree in history and J. D. degree from Tulane University in New Orleans. He also holds M.B.A. degree from the Columbia University. He is a former foreign minister of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

——————–