Tsunami of political misfortunes

At one time during the early stages of the “I Apologize” Turkish campaign in Dec. 2008, Turkey threatened to prosecute its authors and signatories. Then, in late January, it back-peddled.

According to various news reports, Turkish “prosecutors have decided not to take action against the organizers of an online apology campaign for the World War I massacres of Armenians in Turkey, a prosecutor’s office official said Monday, suggesting an easing of attitude toward free expression,” reported the Associated Press on Jan. 26.

Why this change of politically driven judicial policy? Is this the beginning of the end of the infamous anti-freedom of expression criminal code’s article 301? Or are the political fortunes of Turkey fast-evaporating?

In recent years, Turkey, facing the imminent possibility of being permanently isolated, has desperately embarked on a series of high level political maneuvers in the Middle East and Caucasus in order to successfully reflect the image of a regional important state.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan initiated a shuttle diplomacy between Damascus and Tel Aviv. Soon after its launching, the Turkish shuttle lost its course and crashed somewhere between the Arabian and Negev deserts.

Turkey’s embarrassing failure to broker a peace deal between Syria and Israel caused loss of Turkish prestige in the Middle East and Europe.

Having lost face both among the Syrians and Israelis for its obvious inability to enhance the negotiations, Turkey looked elsewhere to boost its international image.

In the aftermath of the 2008 South Ossetia-Georgia war, Ankara initiated the Caucasian platform diplomacy adding that the Russian Federation, along with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia should be part of it. Turkey’s Pres. Abdullah Gül boasted that the idea of establishing a Caucasus Stability Forum would bring economic development and welfare to the people in the region.

Despite the initial conference on the Stability and Cooperation Platform on Caucasus in Istanbul in late January, many political observers believe that this latest Turkish posturing aims to make all talk and no action. The future will tell how long will this Turkish platform last vis-à-vis the shifting political plates in the Black Sea region and the Caucasus.

Turkey has long been frowned upon by Arab nations for its close cooperation with Israel. Its strategic military and economic alliance with the Jewish state has caused anti-Turkish feelings and even animosity among Arabs.

With the advent of the Israel-Gaza war, and subsequent Israeli bombardment of Gaza Strip ruled by Palestinians, Turkish officials saw an opportunity to viciously condemn Israel in order to gain favor with Arab states and to calm Turkish public’s fury at home.

Harut Sassounian, the Publisher of The California Courier wrote this week: “The dispute between the two strategic allies began with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan harshly denouncing Israel’s incursion into Gaza and accusing the Jewish state of committing crimes against humanity. He suggested that Israel be barred from the United Nations as mass demonstrations were held throughout Turkey with banners that read: ‘Gaza will be a grave for Israel’ and ‘Put Israel on trial for war crimes.’ Israel’s Consul General in Istanbul, Mordehai Amihai, told Milliyet that the consulate received hundreds of anti-Semitic e-mails every day during the fighting in Gaza.”

Sassounian continued: “Initially, Israeli officials expressed their displeasure through diplomatic channels. But as the anti-Israel rhetoric intensified, Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister publicly warned Turkey that Tel Aviv might retaliate by acknowledging the Armenian Genocide. Last week, Israel’s Prime Minister Olmert invited the leaders of France, Britain, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Czech Republic to dinner in Jerusalem after their summit meeting in nearby Egypt. Significantly, Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul, who also had attended the summit, was excluded from the dinner.”

As Turkey’s international political misfortunes increase, Ankara needs to stop running away from its domestic duties and begin focusing:

– On establish genuine freedom of expression by abolishing the infamous article 301;

– On publicly supporting not only the “I Apologize” Turkish campaign, but also on coming to terms with its history by expressing readiness to make amends to the victims of the Armenian Genocide through Restorative Justice in the form of reparations, and return of Turkish-occupied Western Armenia to its rightful owners, the Armenians;

– On making amends to the Greeks of Pontus and Smyrna; The Arabs and the nearly 16 million Alevis; The Assyrians and the nearly 25 million Kurds.

If Turkey continues to ignore its obligations, it will continue to undergo both internal and external political pressures, which may ultimately lead to its implosion. It is not a question of “if.” It’s a question of “when!”

Does Turkey desire to avert an uncontrolled economic and political disintegration? Ankara must realize that a fair settlement of the Armenian Genocide along with cases concerning Turkey’s other minorities will usher in a period of genuine stability and cooperation that it desperately needs and seeks.