Turkey and Europe: The Decisive Year Ahead

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP – NEW REPORT

Istanbul/Brussels, 15 December 2008: Turkey is entering a critical year when its already fading goal of European Union membership may be put on hold indefinitely.

Turkey and Europe: The Decisive Year Ahead,* the latest International Crisis Group report, says both Turkey and EU member states need to recall how much they have to gain from each other and quickly reverse a downward spiral that is otherwise likely to produce a breakdown in negotiations and new tension in the Mediterranean.

“There was extraordinary progress in Turkey between 2000-2004 on convergence with EU laws and standards”, says Hugh Pope, Crisis Group’s Project Director for Turkey and Cyprus. “But since then, national reform has slowed to a crawl. At the same time, leaders in some EU countries, including France and Germany, have shown opposition to Turkish membership in unprecedented ways”.

The danger of a breakdown will be especially great if there is no Cyprus settlement in 2009. Some member states could seize on the issue to suspend membership negotiations, especially if Turkey does not open its ports to Cypriot vessels by the fall. If negotiations are suspended, it will be nearly impossible to find the unanimity needed to restart them.

Global rankings show that Turkey is seriously underperforming in terms of development, rights, transparency and democracy. EU-driven reforms have stalled, due to anger that Brussels accepted Cyprus as a member in 2004 even though it was the Greek Cypriots who rejected the UN plan for reunification of the island; domestic political crises; institutional resistance to change; and the reluctance of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the ruling AKP and main opposition parties to take political risks to move forward. Nothing much can now be expected at least until after the March 2009 local elections. A crucial “National Program” to adopt EU laws – the reform roadmap – is stalled in the cabinet.

The setbacks come just as Turkey’s initiatives to encourage openness and calm regional tensions are showing how much it can advance EU foreign policy goals. Ankara has helped de-escalate crises over Iran’s nuclear policy and Lebanon; mediated Syria-Israel talks; and opened new contacts with Armenia and cooperation with Iraqi Kurds. It is also supporting promising talks on Cyprus, where, if all sides push for an agreement, a 2009 settlement is possible.

The dangers to Turkey of lost momentum are evident: feeble reform, new Kurdish tension, political polarisation and the risk of losing the anchor of this decade’s economic miracle.

“The cost to Europe would also be great”, says Sabine Freizer, Crisis Group’s Europe Program Director. “Less easy access to big, fast-growing markets, likely new tensions over Cyprus and the loss of leverage that partnership with Turkey offers to help stabilise the Middle East, strengthen EU energy security and reach out to the Muslim world”.

The International Crisis Group (Crisis Group) is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation covering some 60 crisis-affected countries and territories across four continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.