POOR RICHARD’S REPORT 860-522-7171
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Where Do We Go From Here?
The Oct 11-12 weekend edition of the Financial Times (the Salmon Colored paper) had all negative articles on the global stock markets. Not one positive one I could find. The NYSE reported 2,500 new lows out of 3,400 traded. The G-7 held an emergency meeting in Washington DC. With the pendulum so far to one side it has to swing back. Today Monday, Oct 13, 2008 at noon there are only 2 new lows being made and the markets are soaring. It will be a long time before we see the new highs in the popular averages. We are being taught a valuable lesson about greed.
This is just a rally or a dead cat bounce. Imagine a farmer haying his field for the last time before winter sets in. The birds will flock to pick over the bugs that have been exposed and they will grow slowly as the temperature cools down. When the frigid weather sets in it is time for reorganization. We have just been hayed. Just like the farmer’s field the market will come back under new leadership.
Congress can do what ever they please, but this is a free country with entrepreneurs seeking their pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. In this free spirit country we will seek new avenues for long term growth. If one invested in Wal-Mart in 1970 today that person would have made 5,300 times on their investment Just keep your eyes open around you.
All the learned men are coming forth with idealistic reforms for the financial reform. They won’t be able to put humpty dumpty back together again. They don’t have the right glue.
We need a comprehensive reorganization and reform of our global markets. Sounds impossible? Well, since everyone is down globally there is a sensible way to get it going.
Congress should expand the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) from three members to 7 or 9. The other members would be made up of leading financial experts from member nations of the G-7. Each member would have to be approved by a special US Senate committee to make sure their heads are screwed on right. Then they will be able to take our reforms back to their individual countries. Countries that do not follow our examples will not be recognized by participating countries. They will be playing an expensive form of Monopoly.
The reason for this is if one country has an UPTICK RULE for short sales then the other members would be encouraged to enforce it on their own markets. The mandate should be “For the Common Good” and not how much money will be made. Get rich quick schemes attract individuals with smelly clothes and bad manners. The reason for our own breakdown starts in Washington. Our Political parties were more intent on destroying the other instead of improving our lot. There is no love or forgiveness in Washington.
Events in Washington determine what direction our economy goes. That in turn affects the market place. We must keep watch on our politicians. The media is all over Sarah Palin, but ignoring errors made by Senator Biden during the vice presidential debate. He is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee too. I think he has the beginning of Alzheimer’s.
Now I have maintained for several months the Uptick Rule as many readers know.
In the 1990’s the freedom to know was passed on to securities research. This was interpreted that the general public should know what a select few knew. It is a noble idea, but not very practable in the long term. Many corporations have no idea what they are going to earn. If they guide the investor in the wrong direction they can face stiff fines or a day or two in jail. So they give out in the ball park figures that as the year goes by they keep refining it. Brokerage firms that had paid a pretty penny for good analysts were up against the wall. The general public did not know who to believe.
Here is how it worked in the past and should work in the future. An analyst calls on company A and meets with the high ranking officer. They discuss each division of the company and the officers tell the analyst if he is hi or low. Then the analyst leaves and writes up a report that is sent back to the company for approval. Then more notes are sent back and forth until they both agree on the figures. Now both sides know what company A can earn. The research manager approves the report and it is finally published. Here the research firm should have three days to contact their clients. After that grace period the information can be made public for a nominal fee depending upon the number of written pages. Then management is able to correctly guide other analyst in the right direction.
Repeal the Investment Company Act of 1940. This was for the protection of the baby industry of mutual funds. Some baby! It is a gorilla messing up markets. Take away their hidden and real fees and you will see a better performance. That industry is top heavy with unnecessary “management”. They should trade like Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) with normal stock exchange commissions.
No net trades. Every investor should know how much he is paying for the security. It is called Transparency and bond traders hate it.
Finally the media must be reined in. An analyst once told me that when he goes “on the air” he comes up with his most speculative idea. If it hits he has a chance of being in the big time, if he is wrong everyone will forget. (Except for the analyst who wrote up “Gold is Dead!” when it was $40 and ounce!)
There is one ad that over the years has met all ethical and legal requirements and that is the Oppenheim Mutual Fund ads. The one with the four hands and they say an intelligible disclaimer at the end.
Two Classic ads were Merrill Lynch’s “We are bullish on America”. They did not say the stock market. This was during the bear market of 1973-1982. The second one was “Smith Barney – they make money the old fashion way – They earn it!” Smith Barney did not say you were going to make money.
If one had done the opposite of 99% of the “talking heads” that person would be way ahead. I consider commodity ads outrageous. “Gold has never gone down” is one ad that turns my stomach inside out. 1982 into 1990’s was a downtrend. The most speculative exchange has or implies you can not lose. Pure trash!
Business leaders fined or jailed should apply to the spouse too. That will slow everyone down. One can not hide money in family accounts.
Our Congress will pass punitive laws in order to insure reelection, pounding their hollow chests while bellowing “vote for me”. Meanwhile a lot of good folks will be out of jobs, and the recession could deepen.
The shock and the horror that has happened will take years for the market to recover. In the meantime old leaders will fade away and new spring growth will emerge with beautiful colors and soon what5 has past will be ancient history except to a painful few.
One final thought. To increase consumer confidence and to help the “little guy” instead of just the mighty institutions, we should bring back the usury laws15%-30 on credit cards is downright immoral. If the Democrats are so intent on helping the poor; why not help the ones going to the “poorhouse”?
Goodbye inflation – Hello Deflation
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
This report has been prepared from original sources and data we believe reliable but we make no representation to its accuracy or completeness. Coburn & Meredith Inc its subsidiaries and or officers may from time to time acquire, hold, sell a position discussed in this publications, and we may act as principal for our own account or as agent for both the buyer and seller.
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