Stratfor.com
August 28, 2008
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev flew to
Tajikistan on Wednesday for a summit with China
and four Central Asian countries. The countries
are members of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization, which meets regularly. This meeting
had been on the schedule for while and has no
significance, save that it brings the Russians
into contact with four former members of the
Soviet Union and as important China.
Each of the Central Asian countries is obviously
trying to measure Russia’s long-term intentions.
The issue will not be Georgia, but what Georgia
means to them. In other words, how far does
Russia intend to go in reasserting its sphere of
influence? Medvedev will give suitable
reassurances, but the Russian empire and Soviet
Union both conquered this area in the past.
Retaking it is possible. That means that the four
Central Asian countries will be trying very hard
to retain their independence without irritating
the Russians. For them, this will be a careful meeting.
Of greater interest to the world is China’s view
of the situation. Again, China has no interest in
Georgia. It does have to have quiet delight over
a confrontation between the United States and the
Russians. The more these two countries are
worried about each other, the less either and
particularly the United States can worry about
the Chinese. For China, a U.S.-Islamic
confrontation coupled with a U.S.-Russian
confrontation is just what the doctor ordered.
Certainly the least problem Washington will have
is whether the yuan floats and, hoping for
cooperation with China, the United States will
pull its punches on other issues. That means that
the Chinese will express sympathy to all parties
and take part in nothing. There is no current
threat to Central Asia, so they have no problems
with the Russians. If one emerges, they can talk.
In the meantime, in the main crisis, Russian
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin called attention to
the Black Sea as a potential flash point in the
confrontation between Russia and the West. He
warned that there could be direct confrontations
between Russian and NATO ships should NATO or its
member nations increase their presence there.
According to NATO there are currently four NATO
ships in the Black Sea for a previously scheduled
exercise called Active Endeavor. Putin explicitly
warned, however, that there could be additional
vessels belonging to NATO countries in the Black
Sea that are not under NATO command.
It is hard to get ships into the Black Sea
unnoticed. The ships have to pass through the
Bosporus, a fairly narrow strait in Turkey, and
it is possible to sit in cafes watching the ships
sail by. Putting a task force into the Black Sea,
even at night, would be noticed, and the Russians
would certainly know the ships are there.
As a complicating factor, there is the Montreaux
Convention, a treaty that limits access to the
Black Sea by warships. The deputy chief of the
Russian general staff very carefully invoked the
Montreaux Convention, pointing out that Turkey,
the controlling country, must be notified 15 days
in advance of any transit of the Bosporus, that
warships can’t remain in the Black Sea for more
than 21 days and that only a limited number of
warships were permitted there at any one time.
The Russians have been reaching out in multiple
diplomatic channels to the Turks to make sure
that they are prepared to play their role in
upholding the convention. The Turkish position on
the current crisis is not clear, but becoming
crucial; both the United States and Russia are
working on Turkey, which is not a position Turkey
cares to be in at the moment. Turkey wants this crisis to go away.
It is not going away. With the Russians holding
position in Georgia, it is now clear that the
West will not easily back down. The Russians
certainly aren’t going to back down. The next
move is NATO’s, but the alliance is incapable of
moving, since there is no consensus. Therefore,
the next move is for Washington to lead another
coalition of the willing. It is coming down to a
simple question. Does the United States have the
appetite for another military confrontation
(short of war, we would think) in which case it
will use its remaining asset, the U.S. Navy, to
sail into the Black Sea? If it does this, will it
stay awhile and then leave or establish a
permanent presence (ignoring the Montreaux
Convention) in support of Ukraine and Georgia,
with its only real military option being
blockade? If this happens, will the Russians live
with it, will they increase their own naval, air
and land based anti-ship missile capabilities in
the region, or will they increase pr essure
elsewhere, in Ukraine or the Baltics?
In short, how far does this go?
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