Osetia Hakkinda TDN’de Ilter Turkmen’in bir yazisi, arz edilir.
No need to panic over every regional crisis
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Georgia is hopeful that the West could take action if the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline is threatened. But there is a slim chance that Russia would do that
İlter TÜRKMEN
As does the Middle East, the Caucasus always fluctuates in instability. And there is no sign that the instability will come to an end soon. At the origin of many crises structural elements, historic and religious rivalry, power imbalance, and a race in regional population increases play a key role. Some of these crises are due to unfortunate occupations by external forces, as in Iraq.
All these boils undoubtedly affect Turkey in various ways because of the country’s geopolitical position. Turkey, however, has to experience this environment of tension whether we like it or not. Turkey can play mediator in some of the conflicts, though limited, but it cannot in some others.
West has not much to say:
Plus, Turkey is not always a neutral actor; for instance interests of the country can be in accord with several parties and in conflict with others, considering the developments affecting Iraq and Georgia. We should always keep in mind that Turkish politics are not as flexible as they are supposed to be and where we fail in solving our own problems, cannot overcome crises in internal politics do not leave much space for foreign policies.
It’s been asserted that the latest skirmishes that have erupted between Georgia and Russia can spread and that the United States and the European Union cannot leave a country that affects the energy security of both against Russia. But it is obvious from the beginning that the West has not much to say in this crisis and it cannot engage in military encounters against Russia. Although the U.S. and Russia fiercely accuse each other at the United Nations Security Council, the council cannot reach a decision due to the Russian veto power.
Besides, no one can deny that Georgia makes an arithmetical mistake by engaging in a war with a country Russia — stronger than itself. In the end, Georgia lost so many of its citizens to war as many left the country and had to withdraw forces from South Ossetia. Former Russian President Vladimir Putin said integration between Georgia and South Ossetia is impossible from now on; in other words, current borders will be permanent. As I write this piece, Russia was still bombarding the Georgian targets, not complying with ceasefire and keeping the Abkhazia coasts under control.
Apparently, Georgia is hopeful that the West could take action if the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline is threatened. But there is a slim chance that Russia would want to ruin this international pipeline. Although plans to make Georgia a NATO member is one of the key reasons why Russia has reacted against Georgia, one cannot say that Russia wants to cause a big crisis in U.S.-EU relations because these ties are economically and politically vital for both parties. As a matter of fact, it has been crystal-clear that U.S. aspiration to make Georgia and Ukraine NATO members is not realistic and off target.
What can Turkey do?
What can Turkey do? It continues to call the sides to calm down and seek reconciliation. But it is less likely that Turkey, as a NATO member, can act as a facilitator between Russia and Georgia. However, it could be profitable for Turkey to reexamine its Caucasus policy. Unless the Karabakh issue is settled, we may face a many more dangerous hot encounters. At least signing an agreement to open the Turkey-Armenia border is extremely beneficial. Policies to create an environment for settlement can bring stability to the Caucasus, as they certainly help balancing out the Russian influence in the region.
Obviously we should be very careful not to let these policies negatively affect our bilateral relations with Russia. Unfortunately, stability and peace in the Caucasus have turned very fragile after the Cold War. Going through the same process the Balkans are pulling themselves through. Though this is a different equation, it is time for the countries in the Caucasus to seek more realistic and constructive objectives.
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