By Fadi Hakura
Commentary by
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Turkey is trapped in the unending cycle of the deja vu: the perennial, passionate debate over the place of Islam in society. This discussion on the balance between secularism and Islam is inevitably reduced to the issues of headscarf and alcohol. The current crisis was triggered – surprise, surprise – by the government’s decision to lift the headscarf ban at universities thereby sharing the characteristics of continuity.
During its first-term in office, the Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) adopted waves of extensive political, human rights’ and economic reforms under the aegis of European Union accession. Excitement filled the air. A pious, energetic prime minister was expanding the boundaries of freedom, democracy and free markets. It was like a magical moment and rightly so. A thankful electorate handsomely rewarded the AKP’s solid track record of economic and policy achievements with 47 percent of the vote in the general elections of July 2007.
But magical moments are rarely permanent. Despite garnering a renewed mandate for reform, the AKP appears to have resorted to Islamic populism and confrontational, majoritarian politics. Gone were the days of reform and in came religion: closing down pig farms, attempts to restrict alcohol advertising on television and a prime ministerial acknowledgement that the headscarf is a “political symbol” to boot. Joining the EU ceased to be a priority.
Statism also reared its head. The AKP no longer aspired to liberalize the state but rather to change the people within it. A power struggle erupted between secularist and Islamist ideologues over the control of the powerful state apparatus.
There is the Constitutional Court case now being heard to ban the AKP and 71 AKP officials, including Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan for “anti-secular activities,” and the government-backed Ergenekon case indicting 86 suspects – including four retired generals – for seeking to foment violence in order to encourage a military coup. While the veracity of aspects of the allegations may be genuine, the conduct and timing of the case as well as the identity and treatment of some of the suspects raised many questions.
Yet underneath the high drama of power intrigue and score-settling, there is a dynamic and exhilarating Turkey in the making. Revolutionary change is lurking in the background.
According to credible surveys and opinion polls, Turkish support for secularism – more than 90 percent today – and religious sentiments are rising in parallel. Headscarf wearing is at the same time declining. That and other evidence point strongly to the intriguing development that Islamic and secular values are apparently converging among the Turkish people. A secularizing Islam may be progressing. Related studies demonstrate that the key drivers for political and religious modernization are socio-economic advancements underpinned by globalization, urbanization and industrialization.
Complementing this Islamo-secular convergence is the engagement of the Office for Religious Affairs or Diyanet, which regulates Islam in Turkey, in a wholesale re-interpretation of the Islamic holy texts. Crucially, there is a visible shift away from legalistic interpretations to purpose-specific understandings infused by the concepts of space and time. Theology is equally undergoing a thorough and comprehensive re-examination; the authenticity of many holy utterances, perhaps 70 to 80 percent of them, is being seriously questioned. Remarkably, Felix Koerner, a German Jesuit priest and an expert on Turkish Islam, is informally advising the authorities. Diyanet head Ali Bardakoglu noted that Islamic reinterpretation may take place repeatedly every 8 to 10 years.
On the political front, the Turkish electorate is yearning as never before for a Western-style, post-ideological discourse on bread-and-butter issues. Surveys reveal that economics, jobs and inflation are the number one matters. Concerns over the headscarf ban attract a scant 2-4 percent support.
This desire is potentially starting to impact the political scene. Respectable opinion polls indicate plummeting popular endorsement of the AKP and all the major political parties. None of the opposition parties is reaping benefits from the travails of the ruling party. The percentage of undecided voters has quintupled since January 2008. A plurality of Turks blame the AKP for the political mess, but the secularists are not far behind. Forty-five percent of Turks – a figure rising fast – want new political formations. Possibly, an electoral earthquake might be in the offing.
Rumblings can be heard on the left, but much louder on the right wing of Turkish politics, of liberal-minded secular-oriented religious politicians who wish to build coalitions of right and left, are comfortable with individual choice on headscarf-wearing or alcohol-drinking, and are protagonists of radical reforms and antagonists of ideological politics.
Proof of the dramatic changes in Turkish society is the unprecedented silence of the military throughout the ongoing saga. In past crises, the voice of the “guardians of secularism” was always at the fore. Not this time. Sensing that Turkey is fast becoming a diverse society, as opposed to a once-monolithic bloc of secularists and Islamists, the military is adapting to altering political, economic and societal conditions. It is a process likely to continue in the future. Turkey is increasingly peppered with capitalist-oriented conservatives, liberal secularists and moderate nationalists at odds with a one-size-fits-all state system.
Seen in the light of a changing society, the current crisis reflects the excruciating pains of adjustment. Whatever happens to the AKP and Erdogan, Turkey could be on the cusp of a novel style of politics, emerging as a phoenix from the gathering ashes of the ideologues’ battles of yesteryear.
Fadi Hakura is the Turkey analyst at Chatham House in London. This commentary first appeared at bitterlemons-international.org, an online newsletter.
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