June 25, 2008
by Faiz Shakir,
IRAN
Despite growing international pressure, including three Chapter 7 U.N. Security Council resolutions — the last of which was adopted in April of this year — Iran continues to move forward with its nuclear program. Iranian government officials have repeatedly said that they will not agree to suspend uranium enrichment, which they insist is their right. Though Tehran “maintains the program is exclusively for electricity-producing purposes,” the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported in May that Iran was “still withholding critical information that could determine whether it is trying to make nuclear weapons.” The U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran last December concluded that Iran had “halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003,” but the United States and its international partners continue to “accuse Iran of using its nuclear program as a cover for weapons development.”
THE DIPLOMACY: The latest package of incentives was presented to Iran during a recent visit to Tehran by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and “gives Tehran the opportunity to develop alternate light water reactors, trade and other incentives, in return for dropping the enrichment.” However, the countries represented “alongside Mr Solana were Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China. Nobody from the US.” There are also disincentives to match the incentives for Iran. On Monday, EU states agreed to impose new sanctions prohibiting Iran’s largest bank from operating in Europe” and adding to the list of banned individuals and organizations. With the Iranian economy in tatters, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is politically weakened, and defiance on the nuclear issue represents a way for Ahmadinejad to maintain his political relevancy. Former diplomat Peter Galbraith wrote that, “from the inception of Iran’s nuclear program, prestige and the desire for recognition have been motivating factors,” and he “has made uranium enrichment the centerpiece of his administration and the embodiment of Iranian nationalism.” Ahmadinejad has thus far “successfully used the threat of war to suppress dissent and divert attention from domestic woes.”
UNHELPFUL RHETORIC: The release of the NIE on Iran last December effectively removed the short-term prospect of military action against Iran. But the last few months have seen a renewed effort on the part of pro-war conservative extremists to lay the groundwork for what they see as an inevitable armed conflict. Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol recently suggested that President Bush might consider bombing Iran, depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Former U.S ambassador to the U .N. John Bolton also said a U.S. military strike against Iran “is really the most prudent thing to do.” IAEA Director General Mohamed El-Baradei warned in an interview last week, “I don’t believe that what I see in Iran today is a current, grave and urgent danger. If a military strike is carried out against Iran…it would make me unable to continue my work.” In a recent panel discussion, former ambassador James Dobbins suggested that threats force against Iran were unproductive and that the United States should “get busy with the job of diplomacy.”
RECOGNIZING NEED FOR DIRECT DIPLOMACY: In May, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates stated, “We need to figure out a way to develop some leverage…and then sit down and talk with them [Iran].” Recently retired CentCom chief, Admiral William Fallon, took “public positions favoring diplomacy over force in Iran,” suggesting “a navy-to-navy relationship with Iran as a way to begin a sustained dialogue with the country.” A new report from the United States Institute of Peace asserted that “Iran’s goals appear to be largely defensive: to achieve strategic depth and safeguard its system against foreign intervention, to have a major say in regional decisions, and to prevent or minimize actions that might run counter to Iranian interests.” The report also concluded that “it is hard to envision” any kind of lasting peace in the region “without a reduction in tensions between the United States and Iran.” Citing recent polling evidence, National Security Network policy director Ilan Goldenberg wrote that “diplomatic engagement with Iran…is the consensus position” among Americans. In what could represent a significant policy shift that accords with this consensus, yesterday the Associated Press reported that the Bush administration is considering “opening a U.S. interests section in Tehran,” the first U.S. diplomatic outpost in Iran in nearly thirty years.
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